商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 11 日 黄金：关税乌龙影响价差 贵金属基本面数据 白银：小幅反弹 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2510 | 787.80 | 0.35% | 786.80 | 0.12% | | | 黄金T+D | 783.27 | 0.16% | 783.00 | 0.08% | | | Comex黄金2510 | 3458.20 | -0.70% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | 3397.20 | -0.08% | - | - | | | 沪银2510 | 9278 | 0.22% | 9279.00 | 0.02% | | 价 格 | 白银T+D | 9249 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content Core Views - The report presents investment analyses and trend forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products, on August 11, 2025 [2][4]. - Each commodity has its own unique market situation, influenced by factors such as supply - demand dynamics, macro - economic news, and industry - specific events [6][11][14]. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Tariff misinformation affected price spreads. The trend strength is 1. The price of Comex gold 2510 decreased by 0.70% to 3458.20, and the price of London gold spot decreased by 0.08% to 3397.20 [2][6][9]. - **Silver**: There was a slight rebound. The trend strength is 1. The price of Comex silver 2510 decreased by 0.05% to 38.510, and the price of London silver spot increased by 0.08% to 38.308 [2][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The weak US dollar supported the price. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract increased by 0.04% to 78,490, and the price of the London copper 3M electronic disk increased by 1.01% to 9,768 [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: It showed a narrow - range oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai zinc main contract decreased by 0.29% to 22515, and the price of the London zinc 3M electronic disk increased by 0.66% to 2834 [2][14][15]. - **Lead**: Decreased inventory supported the price. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai lead main contract decreased by 0.18% to 16845, and the price of the London lead 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.17% to 2003.5 [2][17]. - **Tin**: It oscillated within a range. The trend strength is - 1. The price of the Shanghai tin main contract decreased by 0.06% to 267,780, and the price of the London tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.68% to 33,605 [2][20][22]. - **Aluminum**: Volatility dropped to a historical low. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20750, and the price of the London aluminum 3M was 2622 [2][23][25]. - **Nickel**: The support logic from the ore end weakened, and the smelting - end logic limited price elasticity. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,180 [2][26][30]. - **Stainless Steel**: The multi - empty game intensified, and the steel price oscillated. The trend strength is 0. The price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,985 [2][26][30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The shutdown of a large - scale mine in Jiangxi was confirmed, and the price was running strongly. The trend strength is 1. The price of the 2509 contract was 76,640 [2][32][36]. - **Iron Ore**: It oscillated repeatedly. The trend strength is - 1. The price of the 12509 contract decreased by 0.38% to 790.0 [2][38][39]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both showed wide - range oscillations. The trend strength of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0. The price of the RB2510 rebar contract decreased by 0.71% to 3,213, and the price of the HC2510 hot - rolled coil contract decreased by 0.55% to 3,428 [2][40][42]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Both showed wide - range oscillations. The trend strength of silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0. The price of the silicon iron 2509 contract was 5772, and the price of the manganese silicon 2509 contract was 6046 [2][44][46]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both showed strong - side oscillations. The trend strength of coke and coking coal is 0. The price of the JM2509 coking coal contract decreased by 1.6% to 1069.5, and the price of the J2509 coke contract decreased by 0.8% to 1653.5 [2][47][49]. - **Log**: It oscillated repeatedly. The trend strength is 0. The price of the 2509 contract decreased by 0.2% to 830.5 [2][50][53]. - **Para - Xylene**: Supply - demand pressure increased, and the trend was weak. The trend strength is - 1. The price of the PX main contract decreased by 0.44% to 6726 [2][54][57]. - **PTA**: The processing fee was at a low level, and attention was paid to unplanned production cuts. The trend strength is - 1. The price of the PTA main contract decreased by 0.09% to 4684 [2][54][58]. - **MEG**: Go long on MEG and short on PTA/PX. The trend strength is 0. The price of the MEG main contract decreased by 0.27% to 4384 [2][54][59]. - **Rubber**: It oscillated strongly. The trend strength is 1. The daily - closing price of the rubber main contract increased by 25 to 15,550 [2][60][61]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Supply and demand in the producing areas were both strong, and attention was paid to the MPOB report. [2][4][60] - **Soybean Oil**: The driving force from US soybeans was insufficient, and attention was paid to subsequent domestic purchases. [2][4][60] - **Soybean Meal**: After the overnight decline of US soybeans, the Dalian soybean meal might follow and adjust with oscillations. [2][4][62] - **Soybean No.1**: The price on the disk oscillated weakly. [2][4][62] - **Corn**: The price on the disk was under pressure. [2][4][64] - **Sugar**: The valuation had a safety margin. [2][4][66] - **Cotton**: It continued to oscillate. [2][4][67] - **Egg**: There was a rebound sentiment in the spot market. [2][4][69] - **Live Pig**: The spot market was weak, and the reverse - arbitrage strategy was maintained. [2][4][70] - **Peanut**: Attention was paid to the weather in the producing areas. [2][4][71]

Group 1 - The article discusses the contrasting approaches of the Trump administration towards India and China regarding tariffs, highlighting a 50% tariff imposed on India while only threatening China without concrete actions [1][3] - Trump's recent announcement of tariffs on semiconductor chips and pharmaceuticals, with drug tariffs soaring to 250%, indicates a strategy of extreme pressure on global trade [1][3] - The potential "secondary sanctions" against China, including freezing assets and cutting off banks from the dollar settlement system, represent a significant escalation in U.S. measures [3][5] Group 2 - The U.S. is cautious in its approach to China due to the large trade volume and the intertwined supply chains, which makes aggressive actions riskier [5][10] - China's response to U.S. sanctions emphasizes its commitment to energy cooperation with Russia, with a notable increase in trade settled in RMB, reflecting a move towards "de-dollarization" [8][10] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with the potential for increased complexity in U.S.-China relations as both countries navigate competition and cooperation [10]

Core Viewpoint - The soybean futures market is experiencing fluctuations, influenced by various factors including favorable growing conditions for new season soybeans and weak demand from China [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The main soybean futures are trading around 990 cents, with external market support lacking [1] - The latest report indicates that 69% of the soybean crop is rated good to excellent, the best level for this time of year in nearly five years [1] - Only 3% of the planting area is affected by drought, with soil moisture levels allowing for some flexibility [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - China has not initiated new season soybean purchases, maintaining a 23% tariff on imports, which contributes to weak demand for U.S. soybeans [1] - If no significant macroeconomic news emerges, the support level of 1000 cents may turn into a resistance level, with expectations of increased ending stocks for U.S. soybeans [1] Group 3: Domestic Market Trends - Domestic soybean meal prices are currently stronger than external prices, leading to a divergence in trends [1] - Recent transactions in domestic soybean meal exceeded 2 million tons in a single day, primarily for forward contracts, indicating concerns about future supply [1] Group 4: Future Projections - The USDA's upcoming report is anticipated to reveal potential bearish factors, with analysts projecting global soybean ending stocks for the 2025/26 season at 127.42 million tons [1] - For the U.S. 2024/25 season, ending stocks are expected to be 347 million bushels, with a projected production of 4.365 billion bushels and a yield of 52.9 bushels per acre [1]

大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜周报（8.4~8.8） 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 上周沪铜震荡整理，沪铜主力合约微涨0.11%，收报于78490元/吨。宏观面看，地缘政治扰动铜价,美 国关税再起波澜，全球不稳定因素仍存。国内方面，消费进入淡季，目前来看下游消费意愿一般。产 业端，国内现货交易一般，整体还是刚需交易为主。库存方面，铜库存LME库存155850吨，上周出现小 幅增加，上期所铜库存较上周增9390吨至81933吨。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、库存 PMI 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 2024供需紧平衡，2025过剩 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 | | | 中国年度供 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by multiple factors including geopolitical events, economic data, and policy changes. For instance, the potential outcomes of the US-Russia talks and the uncertainty in the US-China trade relationship are key factors affecting various markets [17][44]. - In the financial market, different asset classes have different outlooks. Gold is expected to continue its oscillatory trend with increased volatility; the US dollar is predicted to remain weak in the short - term; and the US stock market may face correction risks due to the fluctuating interest - rate cut expectations [13][18][22]. - In the commodity market, each sector has its own supply - demand dynamics. For example, the油脂 market may experience short - term pullbacks but has long - term potential for long - positions; the copper market is likely to have high - level oscillations with inventory increases limiting the upside [33][57]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed's Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year. The gold price oscillated on Friday with increased intraday volatility. After the White House clarified that imported gold bars would not be taxed, the COMEX gold price declined to narrow the spread with London gold. The gold price is in an oscillatory range, and short - term oscillations are expected to continue with attention to correction risks [12][13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The NATO Secretary - General is optimistic about the "Trump - Putin meeting". Nordic and Baltic leaders reaffirmed their support for Ukraine. The US - Russia meeting in Alaska and the European stance on Ukraine make the outcome of the meeting and the cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict highly uncertain, leading to the US dollar remaining weak in the short - term [14][15][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials have different views on interest rates. Some support maintaining the current rate due to unmet inflation targets, while others advocate for rate cuts. The market's interest - rate cut expectations are volatile, and the US stock market at its current level may face correction risks [19][21][22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The issuance of local bonds with VAT on interest started on August 8. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. The bond market is expected to be in a favorable period in the first half of August, and trading - position long - holders can continue to hold their positions [23][24][27]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - In July, China's CPI was flat year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. Beijing optimized its housing purchase restrictions, and the capital market is expected not to have a large - scale IPO expansion. The strengthening of the core CPI may support the stock market pricing, and it is recommended to allocate evenly among stock indices [28][29][31]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The actual soybean crushing volume in the 32nd week was 2177500 tons, and the expected volume in the 33rd week is 2369500 tons. Multiple countries' policies may change. India may raise edible oil import tariffs, and there are rumors about the US RVO proposal. The short - term oil market may pull back, but it has long - term potential for long - positions, and it is recommended to go long on dips [32][33]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The market expects the USDA August supply - demand report to raise the US soybean yield. The US soybean market is weak, while the domestic soybean meal market is relatively strong. It is recommended to continue to focus on the development of Sino - US relations and changes in import and demand [34][35]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar exports decreased in July, indicating weak export demand. The international sugar market is under pressure due to the expected oversupply in the 25/26 season. However, factors such as the low sugar - ethanol price difference and poor cane quality may limit the downside of the ICE raw sugar price. The domestic sugar market is also under pressure from increased imports, but the downside of the Zhengzhou sugar price is limited, and it is not recommended to short aggressively [39][40]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The US tariff policy and the uncertainty in the US - China trade relationship increase market concerns. The ICE cotton price is expected to remain weak in the short - term. Domestically, the cotton supply is tight before the new cotton harvest, and there may be a small - scale "rush to buy" at the beginning of the new cotton season. The 1 - month contract may rebound, and it is recommended to pay attention to the US - China trade policy [44]. 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China has completed the ultra - low emission transformation of 600 million tons of crude steel production capacity. The inventory of five major steel products is increasing, and the demand has not changed significantly. The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to the limited impact of environmental protection restrictions on supply and the difficulty of the spot price to follow the increase [45][47]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The cassava starch inventory has increased again at a high level, and the price difference with corn starch has narrowed. There is no driving force for the price difference to strengthen in the supply - demand situation, and the price difference in the 09 contract may be affected by the new corn harvest in North China [48]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of imported corn auctions remains low. The market's demand for imported corn substitutes is expected to decline, and the old - crop spot price is likely to weaken. It is recommended to hold short positions in new - crop corn and pay attention to the weather [49][50]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Two factories of a Shanxi alumina enterprise were affected by ore supply. The spot price remained stable, and the futures price was weak. It is recommended to wait and see [51][53]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The US is interested in investing in Pakistan's copper mining. Chile's Codelco partially restarted a copper mine. Macro factors may provide short - term support for the copper price, but the increase in global inventory will limit the upside. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and focus on the cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy [54][57]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange added new registered brands for polysilicon futures. The spot trading is light, and the inventory is increasing. The short - term polysilicon price may range between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton, and it may reach over 60000 yuan/ton in the long - term. It is recommended to go long on dips and consider the 9 - 12 positive arbitrage [58][60]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Some production capacities in Xinjiang have resumed production. The supply may increase in August, but the demand from polysilicon may lead to inventory reduction. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term, with risks from large - factory resumption and polysilicon production cuts [61][62]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Ningde Times' Jiaxiaowo mining site will stop production. The production loss will lead to inventory reduction in the third - quarter balance sheet. The short - term price is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to go long on dips and consider the inter - month positive arbitrage [63]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The primary lead production is expected to increase, while the secondary lead production is affected by sewage inspections. The demand is in the pre - peak season waiting to be verified. It is recommended to hold long positions established at low prices and pay attention to the positive arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [65][66]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc inventory has decreased significantly, while the domestic zinc supply is high. The demand is stable in the primary processing sector. The short - term trading of Shanghai zinc is difficult, and it is recommended to manage positions for single - side trading, consider the medium - term positive arbitrage, and wait and see for the domestic - foreign trading [67][68]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory has increased. The macro - environment provides some support, but the supply is expected to be in surplus. The short - term nickel price is unlikely to decline significantly, and it is recommended to focus on short - term trading opportunities and consider short - selling at high prices in the medium - term [69][70]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price oscillated last week. The carbon price may be supported by the buying demand before the compliance deadline, but the weak demand may limit the upside. The EU carbon price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [71][72]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US oil rig count decreased. India's state - owned refineries are招标 to purchase non - Russian crude oil. The oil price has fallen to a new low since early June due to reduced geopolitical risk premiums. The short - term oil price volatility is expected to increase [73][74][76]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The Shandong caustic soda market is stable. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand is average. The caustic soda spot price is starting to weaken, but the downside is limited due to factors such as low liquid chlorine prices and strong coal prices [77][78]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The imported wood pulp spot market has limited adjustments. The futures price is oscillating. The anti - involution sentiment has cooled down, and the pulp market is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short - term [79]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market is weakly oscillating. The futures price is down, and the trading is light. The PVC fundamentals are weak, but the macro - environment and coal prices provide support. The market is expected to oscillate [80]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PX) - A South Korean PX plant is under maintenance, and Japanese PX plants are restarting. The PX price is affected by downstream demand, PTA spot price, and other factors, and is expected to oscillate in the short - term [81]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - A Northeast PTA plant is shutting down. The weaving industry is in the off - season, and the PTA supply and demand have little contradiction. The PTA price mainly follows the crude oil price and is expected to oscillate in the short - term [82][83]. 2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Maersk's second - quarter earnings were strong. The SCFI index has declined. The shipping companies are accelerating price cuts, and the supply pressure is increasing. The freight rate may continue to decline, and it is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities when the market is boosted by sentiment [84][87].

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Buy" rating [4] Core Views - The gold market is experiencing disruptions due to tariffs and shadow Fed policies, potentially opening a breakthrough window for gold prices [1] - The long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact amid concerns over global monetary credit, public debt, and geopolitical tensions [1] - The copper processing fee is recovering amid expectations of reduced smelting, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate due to domestic and international favorable policies [2] - Lithium prices are rebounding strongly due to ongoing supply disruptions, while silicon prices are expected to remain volatile without significant improvements in the fundamentals [2] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold has been included in the category of imported goods subject to tariffs, leading to a temporary price surge above $3,500 per ounce on COMEX [1] - The U.S. government is expected to clarify that imported gold bars should not be subject to tariffs, which may stabilize the market [1] - The price difference between COMEX gold and London gold has narrowed to $4.9 per ounce as of August 8 [1] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Global copper inventories increased by 35,400 tons, with significant production increases in China [2] - **Aluminum**: The theoretical operating capacity of China's electrolytic aluminum industry reached 44.05 million tons, with mixed production trends in the aluminum rod industry [2] Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate rose by 8.9% to 75,000 yuan per ton, driven by supply disruptions and increased production [2] - **Silicon**: The average cost of metal silicon is 10,028.9 yuan per ton, with a slight increase in production but overall supply exceeding demand [2] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - Xinyi Silver Tin - Shengda Resources - Zijin Mining - Shandong Gold - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining - Yintai Gold - Zhaojin Mining [1][2]

Tax Origin and Characteristics - Tariffs originated as a form of transit tax, primarily for controlling the movement of goods and maintaining border security[2] - Historically, tariffs were not significant in fiscal systems until the rise of international trade in the 16th century[2] Evolution of Tariff Functions - The function of tariffs has evolved from revenue collection to industry protection and economic regulation, influenced by economic development and prevailing economic ideologies[3] - Five distinct phases of tariff evolution are identified, with the latest phase (2018-present) marked by a resurgence of protectionism under the Trump administration[4][24] Global Economic Dependence on Tariffs - Countries are categorized based on their reliance on tariff revenue: low dependence (below 3%), medium dependence (3%-5%), and high dependence (above 5%)[5][25] - Developed economies like the US, Japan, and the UK have low tariff revenue reliance, with figures such as 1.2% for the US and 0.5% for Japan in 2022[5][28] Medium Dependence Economies - Countries like India and Vietnam show medium dependence on tariffs, with tariff revenue constituting 4.1% and 3.1% of national fiscal income respectively in 2022[6][31] High Dependence Economies - The Philippines exemplifies high dependence on tariffs, with 18.1% of its national fiscal income derived from tariffs in 2022, significantly higher than other nations[6][33] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected changes in global trade policies and shifts in international economic and political landscapes[7]

Market Overview - The US service sector is facing challenges as the US stock market saw gains, with the Dow Jones up 1.35%, Nasdaq up 3.73%, and S&P 500 up 2.43% for the week [1] - European stock indices showed mixed results, with the UK FTSE 100 up 2.58%, while Germany's DAX 30 and France's CAC 40 fell by 1.58% and 1.72% respectively [1] Economic Indicators - The upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July is expected to be a major focus, especially in light of recent tariffs and weak employment data, which have increased the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2] - The UK central bank's recent 25 basis point rate cut has led to increased attention on the UK’s GDP data for Q2, which will be released soon [1][4] Commodity Prices - International oil prices experienced their largest weekly decline since late June, with WTI crude oil at $63.88 per barrel (down 5.1%) and Brent crude at $66.59 per barrel (down 4.4%) [3] - Gold prices reached a historical high before retreating, with the latest close at $3,397.28 per ounce, reflecting a 1.02% increase for the week [3] Corporate Earnings - The earnings season is nearing its end, with significant reports expected from companies such as Alibaba, JD.com, and NetEase [1][2] - Notable companies reporting this week include Cisco, Applied Materials, and Deere [2][5]

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July is expected to be a major focus for the market, particularly in light of recent tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on multiple economies, which may influence inflation [3] - The U.S. services sector is facing challenges, with the ISM services PMI indicating a significant rise in the prices paid index, suggesting inflation remains a critical concern [3] - The U.K. central bank recently lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, and the upcoming GDP data for Q2 will be closely monitored to assess economic performance [5] Group 2: Corporate Earnings and Financial Reports - The earnings season is nearing its end, with notable companies such as Alibaba, JD.com, and NetEase set to release their financial results [1][3] - Other companies of interest during this earnings period include Cisco, Applied Materials, and Deere [3] Group 3: Commodity Prices and Market Trends - International oil prices experienced their largest weekly decline since late June, with WTI crude oil at $63.88 per barrel, down 5.1%, and Brent crude at $66.59 per barrel, down 4.4% [4] - Gold prices reached a historical high before retreating, with the New York Mercantile Exchange near-month contract closing at $3,397.28 per ounce, up 1.02% for the week [4] - The widening price gap between U.S. gold futures and spot prices indicates potential impacts on trading dynamics, particularly concerning Swiss gold refining and transportation [4]