【导读】上周五股票 ETF 资金净流入超 165 亿元 中国基金报记者 天心 12 月 12 日， 全市场股票 ETF （含跨境 ETF ）资金净流入超 165 亿元， 中证 A500 、沪深 300 、中证 500 、中证 1000 等宽基 ETF 净流入靠前。 全周来看，股票 ETF 整体呈现资金净流入，其中中证 A500 指数相关 ETF 大幅 " 吸金 " 超 96 亿元，恒生科技相关 ETF 净流入资金超 30 亿元。 12月12日股票 ETF 净流入超 165 亿元 Wind 数据显示，截至 12 月 12 日，全市场 1273 只股票 ETF 总规模达 4.62 万亿元。 12 月 12 日股票 ETF 市场总份额增加 79.64 亿份，按照成交均价测算，当日净流入资金达 165.73 亿元，其中 41 只股票 ETF 净流入超过 1 亿元。 易方达数据显示，当日资金 流入前 5 板块为中证 A500指数 （净流入 59.1 亿元）、沪深 300指数 （净流入 35.5 亿元）、中证 500指 数 （净流入 32.5 亿元）、中证 1000指数 （净流入 18.1 亿元）、红利指数（净流入 14 ...

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the economy and enhancing the quality of development through comprehensive reforms in the capital market [1][2] - The CSRC plans to actively participate in the formulation of the national "14th Five-Year Plan" and establish a systematic framework for the capital market's development goals and tasks over the next five years [1] - The meeting highlights the need to strengthen the internal stability of the market by fostering high-quality listed companies and promoting long-term investment mechanisms [1][2] Group 2 - The CSRC aims to enhance the inclusiveness and attractiveness of the capital market by implementing reforms in the ChiNext board and accelerating the rollout of the "1+6" reform measures for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [2] - There is a focus on strict regulatory enforcement to combat financial fraud, insider trading, and other violations, alongside the development of new regulations for listed companies [2] - The CSRC is committed to strengthening party discipline and governance within its system, ensuring compliance with the central leadership's directives [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The Chinese economy is expected to maintain a GDP growth target of around 5% in 2026, with new economic drivers emerging to offset the drag from the real estate sector [217][218]. - Globally, the policy in 2026 will revolve around the shift of policy focus, the return of fiscal expansion, and the maintenance of monetary easing, forming a new pattern of "policy re - balance" [94]. - In the bond market, the bullish expectation is loosening in 2026. With the reasonable and abundant capital, the stable economy, the moderate rise of inflation, and the cautious attitude towards interest - rate cuts, the bond market is likely to remain range - bound [176][270][271]. - In the stock index futures market, new quality productive forces will still be the core driver. The technology theme market may continue, and if the PPI turns positive in the second half of 2026, the style switch between large - and small - cap stocks may occur [282]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro: Go with the Trend - **Economic Aggregate**: Considering the structural constraints in the next decade, China's potential economic growth rate may decline year by year. To connect with the 2035 vision, the GDP growth target is expected to be set at around 5% in the first three years of the "15th Five - Year Plan" [7][8]. - **Economic Structure** - **Consumption**: The "15th Five - Year Plan" aims to significantly increase the household consumption rate. China's household consumption rate has room for improvement, and the government will take measures such as income increase, burden reduction, and supply - side reform to boost consumption [13][24]. - **Industry**: The "15th Five - Year Plan" emphasizes enhancing scientific and technological self - reliance. New policies will promote high - level scientific and technological self - reliance and the development of new quality productive forces [30]. - **Demand Growth**: The driving force of economic growth is shifting from investment to consumption. The real estate market is still in adjustment, and the central government needs to increase fiscal leverage to solve the problems in real estate inventory reduction. Infrastructure and manufacturing investment need to maintain reasonable growth and improve efficiency [32][35]. - **Inflation**: With demand - side stimulus for consumption, supply - side "anti - involution" to improve efficiency, and the central bank's support for a reasonable rise in prices, inflation is expected to bottom out and rise in 2026 [7][89]. Big - Category Assets: Fiscal and Monetary Combinations Take Effect - **Global Macro Review**: In 2025, the global macro - economy fluctuated sharply under the influence of "Trump Policy 2.0". In 2026, the global policy will focus on the shift of policy focus, fiscal expansion, and monetary easing [95][103]. - **Overseas Outlook** - **United States**: In 2026, the policy focus will shift to domestic issues. The economy is expected to recover moderately, with potential interest - rate cuts. However, fiscal sustainability remains a concern [120][133]. - **Eurozone**: In 2026, the ECB's significant interest - rate cuts may end. The eurozone economy will rely on fiscal expansion and external investment, and the growth rate is expected to be around 1.2% [134][135]. - **Japan**: In 2026, Japan will implement a combination of fiscal expansion and moderate interest - rate hikes. If it can balance fiscal and monetary policies, the economy may achieve a stable growth [140][141]. - **2026 Big - Category Assets Outlook**: In 2026, with the decline of global economic policy uncertainty, the risk appetite of the market is likely to continue to recover. Risk assets such as stocks may rise, while the prices of safe - haven assets may adjust. The demand for commodities will be affected by the inventory cycle and fiscal stimulus [161]. Treasury Bond Futures: Increasingly Negative Factors, Shaky Bullish Expectations - **2025 Market Review**: In 2025, the bond market showed a sideways and volatile trend, influenced by factors such as tight funds, tariff disturbances, the rise of risk appetite due to "anti - involution", and the decline of interest - rate cut expectations [176][183]. - **2026 Market Analysis Logic** - **Capital**: The central bank's liquidity management system will ensure that the capital in 2026 remains reasonably abundant [233][235]. - **Economy**: The macro - policy will continue to support stable growth, and the economy will remain stable [199][270]. - **Inflation**: With the promotion of consumption and "anti - involution" policies, CPI is expected to rise moderately, and the decline of PPI is expected to narrow [262][265]. - **Monetary Policy**: The moderately loose monetary policy will continue, but interest - rate cuts will be more cautious, with an expected cut range of 10 - 20BP in 2026 [242]. - **Fiscal Policy**: The fiscal policy will remain active in 2026, with an expected narrow - sense budget deficit rate of around 4% and a broad - sense budget deficit rate of 8.3% [258][259]. - **Market Outlook**: In 2026, the bond market is likely to remain range - bound. The reasonable and abundant capital is a support, while the stable economy, rising inflation, and cautious attitude towards interest - rate cuts pose constraints [271][273]. Stock Index Futures: New Quality Productive Forces Remain the Core Driver - **2025 Market Review**: In 2025, the A - share market rose significantly, mainly driven by the technology theme. The overseas and domestic markets both contributed to the rise, but the cycle and consumption sectors were still under pressure [282][283][294]. - **2026 Market Outlook** - **Global Technology Market**: There are debates about whether the current technology market has a bubble. However, the upstream manufacturing enterprises have stable performance expectations, the Fed is likely to continue to cut interest rates in the first quarter, and the Chinese technology industry also has fundamental support [337][346][350]. - **Style Switch**: The style switch from growth to value is not likely to occur in the first half of 2026. If the PPI turns positive in the second half of 2026, the ROE of the stock index may stabilize and rise, and the style switch may happen [358][367][368]. - **Futures and Options Market Features** - **Basis**: The basis of small - cap index futures is at a high level, and the roll - over cost has also increased. The basis of large - cap index futures is mainly affected by dividends [372]. - **Volatility**: The historical and implied volatilities of the index were high in 2025. At the beginning of 2026, strategies for increasing volatility should be considered [383]. - **Market Strategies**: In 2026, the excess returns of index - enhancement and neutral strategies are relatively optimistic, but attention should be paid to the potential beta retracement [389].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the supply - demand situation of steel products is expected to improve, and the center of steel prices may move up. The production of crude steel will continue to decline slightly, while demand from infrastructure and manufacturing will pick up, and exports will remain at a high level. The cost of raw materials such as iron ore and coking coal is expected to be relatively loose, and the profits of the steel industry may be repaired [6][7][11][12]. - The supply - demand balance of iron ore will remain loose in 2026. Overseas mines (excluding India) are expected to increase production by 62 million tons, and domestic iron ore supply will also increase. However, the release of incremental supply from small and medium - sized mines depends on ore prices and project progress. Domestic pig iron production is expected to decline, and overseas demand will increase slightly. The operating range of ore prices is expected to be around $85 - 110 per ton [121][122][123]. - The supply - demand pattern of coking coal and coke will remain relatively loose in 2026. For coking coal, domestic production and imports are expected to increase, while demand may decrease. The operating range of coking coal futures prices is expected to be between 900 - 1400 yuan per ton. For coke, production is expected to decrease, exports may fall, and imports may rise. The operating range of coke futures prices is expected to be between 1300 - 1900 yuan per ton [228][229]. - In 2026, the oversupply situation of ferroalloys is difficult to change. For ferromanganese silicon, new production capacity is to be put into operation, but production may decline slightly, and demand will remain stable. For ferrosilicon, production capacity will remain in excess, costs will provide support, and upward drivers will be limited [322]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Steel Products 2025 Market Review - The domestic steel market in 2025 showed a trend of "lower price center and significantly narrowed volatility". Steel prices mainly fluctuated and declined throughout the year, except for a significant rebound from June to July. The overall demand was weak, with real estate being the main drag, while plate demand was stronger than long - product demand. Overseas demand was strong, and steel and billet exports reached new highs [14][23][38][40]. - Long - process steel mills had relatively good profits in 2025, mainly due to the sharp decline in coking coal and coke prices and the adjustment of product structure by steel mills. Short - process steel mills continued to suffer losses [55][56]. 2026 Market Analysis - **Demand**: In 2026, policy guidance for steel demand will be positive. Real estate investment and sales are expected to decline at a slower pace, infrastructure investment is expected to increase slightly, and manufacturing investment is expected to recover moderately [7][62][72]. - **Supply**: The policy of reducing crude steel production will continue in 2026, and it is expected that crude steel production will decline slightly, and the supply of steel products will better match demand [6][94][96]. - **Import and Export**: In 2026, steel exports are expected to remain at a high level but will decline from the peak. The net export of crude steel may decrease compared to 2024 [10][101][118]. - **Cost**: In 2026, the supply of iron ore and coking coal will be relatively loose, and the profits of the steel industry may be repaired [11][110][114]. 3.2 Iron Ore 2025 Market Review - In 2025, the supply - demand of iron ore was marginally loose, and the price fluctuations throughout the year were significantly narrowed. There were two obvious price increases, and the basis was at a low level in the past five years. The prices of different iron ore varieties showed different trends [124][129][132]. - The supply increment mainly came from Brazil and non - mainstream countries, and the production of domestic mines increased less than expected. Overseas demand decreased slightly, while domestic iron ore demand was better than expected [142][158][179]. 2026 Market Outlook - **Supply**: In 2026, overseas mines (excluding India) are expected to increase production by 62 million tons, with the main increments coming from Australia, Guinea, and Brazil. The supply of domestic iron ore is also expected to increase, but the release of incremental supply from small and medium - sized mines depends on ore prices and project progress [121][161][177]. - **Demand**: Overseas demand is expected to increase slightly, while domestic pig iron production is expected to decline. Overall, the supply - demand of iron ore will remain loose, and the operating range of ore prices is expected to be around $85 - 110 per ton [122][123][203]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory first decreased and then increased, and steel mills maintained low - inventory management [209][215]. 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke 2025 Market Review - In 2025, the prices of coking coal and coke fluctuated greatly. The price of coking coal was mainly driven by the supply side, with a sharp decline from January to May, a sharp increase from June to August, wide - range fluctuations from August to October, and another significant decline in November [231][232][235]. - The production of coking coal showed a pattern of "loose in the first half of the year and tight in the second half". The production of coke was adjusted periodically according to coking profits [246][277]. 2026 Market Outlook - **Coking Coal**: In 2026, domestic coking coal production is expected to reach 483 million tons, and imports are expected to increase to 120 million tons. Demand is expected to decrease by 8 million tons to about 585 million tons. The overall supply - demand of coking coal will face certain pressure, and the operating range of futures prices is expected to be between 900 - 1400 yuan per ton [228][314][317]. - **Coke**: In 2026, coke production is expected to decrease to 495 million tons, exports may fall to 7.2 million tons, and imports may rise to 0.8 million tons. Demand is expected to decrease by about 2.8 million tons. The operating range of coke futures prices is expected to be between 1300 - 1900 yuan per ton [229][314][318]. 3.4 Ferroalloys 2025 Market Review - In 2025, the futures prices of ferromanganese silicon and ferrosilicon showed similar trends, with the amplitude of ferromanganese silicon being slightly larger. The prices were mainly affected by factors such as manganese ore inventory, terminal demand, and the "anti - involution" policy [326][327]. 2026 Market Outlook - **Ferromanganese Silicon**: In 2026, the supply - demand pattern of ferromanganese silicon will remain relatively loose, and prices will mainly fluctuate. New production capacity is to be put into operation, but production may decline slightly. Demand is expected to remain basically the same [322][397]. - **Ferrosilicon**: In 2026, the over - capacity situation of ferrosilicon will continue, with cost support and limited upward drivers. Production capacity will remain in excess, and demand will change little year - on - year [322][399].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for technology innovation to be rooted in the industrial system to avoid becoming a capital bubble [1] - The Southern Finance Forum 2025 focused on the economic trends and capital market outlook for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1][2] - The forum gathered prominent representatives from finance, academia, and industry to discuss key issues [1] Group 2 - The consensus among experts indicates that domestic demand will be the main growth engine for China's economy in 2026, with consumption and investment driving growth [2] - Technology innovation is identified as a dual driving force for both the real economy and capital markets, with China's tech industry gaining global competitiveness [2] - A global economic rebalancing and moderate inflation are anticipated, with PPI expected to end its long-term negative growth trend, boosting market confidence [2] Group 3 - The discussion on A-share value reassessment highlighted the significant role of the capital market in economic transformation, moving beyond just a financing platform [3] - The potential for a "Davis Double Play" in A-shares hinges on PPI recovery and its correlation with corporate earnings [3][4] - A-shares are currently valued reasonably, aligned with the average nominal GDP growth rate over the past six years, and could transition to a profit-driven phase if inflation progresses smoothly [4] Group 4 - Concerns regarding the U.S. AI bubble were raised, with experts acknowledging its structural risks while noting that the timing and extent of adjustments depend on U.S. Federal Reserve policies and inflation trends [5] - China's advantages in AI applications were highlighted, with a strategic shift towards prioritizing technology implementation over capital narratives [5] - The resilience of A-shares is expected to remain intact even if a global AI bubble bursts, supported by solid fundamentals [5] Group 5 - Experts warned of potential systemic risks stemming from overlooked uncertainties, including the reversal of yen carry trade risks and pressures in constructing a self-sufficient modern industrial system [6][7] - Liquidity risks may arise from accumulated debt bubbles and shadow banking, potentially triggered by political uncertainties [7] - Geopolitical tensions could lead to unexpected global inflation, posing significant risks in 2026 [8] - The acceleration of technology replacing labor could transform youth unemployment from a potential risk to a real pressure [9]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasizes the importance of enhancing the inherent stability of the market and outlines the implementation measures for the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) to align with the central economic work conference's directives [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Development and Market Stability - The meeting highlights that under the leadership of the central government, China's economy has been resilient and is on track to meet the main goals of the 14th Five-Year Plan [2]. - The CSRC is tasked with deepening the comprehensive reform of capital markets to support employment, businesses, and market stability, contributing to high-quality economic development [2][3]. Group 2: Strategic Planning and Implementation - The CSRC is to actively participate in the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan, establishing a systematic framework for capital market development over the next five years [2][3]. - The focus will be on cultivating high-quality listed companies and enhancing corporate governance, encouraging companies to increase dividend payouts and share buybacks [3]. Group 3: Regulatory and Reform Initiatives - The meeting calls for the implementation of reforms in the ChiNext board and the acceleration of the "1+6" reform measures for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [3]. - There is a commitment to strengthen regulatory enforcement against financial fraud, insider trading, and market manipulation, alongside the development of new regulations for listed companies [3][4]. Group 4: Party Leadership and Governance - The meeting underscores the need for strict party governance within the CSRC, reinforcing the central leadership's authority and enhancing oversight of public power in key areas [4]. - The CSRC is expected to maintain a balance between strict management and support, fostering a robust regulatory environment [4].

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasizes the importance of strategic guidance and reform in the capital market, aiming for stability, high-quality development, and effective regulation in line with the central economic work conference directives [2][3]. Group 1: Strategic Planning and Market Stability - The CSRC will actively participate in the formulation of the national "14th Five-Year Plan" and establish a systematic framework for the capital market's development goals and tasks over the next five years [3]. - There will be a focus on cultivating a high-quality group of listed companies, initiating a new round of corporate governance actions, and encouraging quality companies to increase dividend repurchases [2][3]. - The implementation of a long-term assessment mechanism for medium and long-term funds will be promoted, alongside the development of equity public funds and high-quality index investment [2][3]. Group 2: Reform and Development - The CSRC plans to deepen the reform of the ChiNext board and accelerate the implementation of the "1+6" reform measures for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [3]. - The private equity fund industry will be developed with a focus on high quality, and pilot programs for commercial real estate REITs will be launched [2][3]. - There will be an emphasis on fostering top-tier investment banks and institutions while expanding institutional openness and optimizing the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system [2][3]. Group 3: Regulatory Enhancement - The CSRC will enhance regulatory enforcement by leveraging technology to combat financial fraud, insider trading, and market manipulation [4]. - New regulations for listed companies will be introduced, and revisions to key laws in the securities sector will be actively supported [4]. - The CSRC will strengthen the supervision of public power in key areas and ensure a balance between strict management and incentives [5].

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a collective decline in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping nearly 1% at one point, but the losses narrowed towards the end of the trading session [2] - Notable stocks such as Pudong Development Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, China Petroleum, China Petrochemical, Kweichow Moutai, and China Life Insurance saw a sudden collective surge during the auction period [2] Group 2 - The North Securities 50 Index surged significantly in the afternoon, rising over 6% at one point and closing up 3.84% [3] - Individual stocks like Tianli Composite hit a 30% limit up, while Fujida and Xingtum Measurement Control rose over 13%, and Tianma New Materials increased by over 9% [4] - The North Securities Index sample stocks and reserve list will undergo regular adjustments, effective December 15, including companies like Five New Tunnel Equipment, Better Ray, Airo Technology, Shuguang Digital Innovation, Anda Technology, and Jinbo Biological [4] Group 3 - The ultra-high voltage concept stocks showed strong performance, with Tongguang Cable hitting a 20% limit up, while Zhongchao Holdings and Hualing Cable also reached their limit up, and Caneng Electric rose nearly 8% [5] - Institutions believe that 2026, as the start of the "14th Five-Year Plan," will present dual opportunities for the power equipment industry due to domestic demand expectations and external demand recovery [5] - CITIC Securities projects that investment in the power grid will maintain stable growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with an estimated total investment of approximately 3.8 trillion yuan from 2026 to 2030, corresponding to an average annual investment of about 750 billion yuan [5]

一是坚持战略引领，认真做好"十五五"规划编制和实施。积极配合编制国家"十五五"规划纲要，科学制 定资本市场"十五五"规划体系，系统谋划未来五年资本市场发展主要目标、任务和重要举措，以钉钉子 精神抓好落实。 二是坚持固本强基，持续增强市场内在稳定性。积极培育高质量上市公司群体，开展新一轮公司治理专 项行动，引导优质公司持续加大分红回购力度。全面推动落实中长期资金长周期考核机制，大力发展权 益类公募基金，推动指数化投资高质量发展。加强跨市场跨行业跨境风险监测监控，强化逆周期跨周期 调节，健全长效化稳市机制。强化政策解读和预期引导，及时回应市场关注关切，压实行业机构、上市 公司的声誉管理责任，持续讲好"股市叙事"。 北京商报讯（记者 马换换 王蔓蕾）12月15日午间，中国证监会官网发文称，近日，中国证监会党委书 记、主席吴清主持召开党委（扩大）会议，传达学习中央经济工作会议精神，结合全国金融系统工作会 议要求，研究部署证监会系统贯彻落实举措。 会议强调，证监会系统要按照全国金融系统工作会议安排，坚持稳中求进、提质增效，紧扣防风险、强 监管、促高质量发展主线，持续深化资本市场投融资综合改革，更好助力稳就业、稳企业、稳 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasizes the importance of capital market work as highlighted in the recent Central Economic Work Conference, aiming for high-quality economic development and stability in employment, enterprises, and market expectations [1] Group 1: Strategic Planning - The CSRC will actively participate in the formulation of the national "14th Five-Year" plan and establish a systematic framework for the capital market's development goals and tasks over the next five years [1] Group 2: Market Stability - The focus will be on cultivating a high-quality group of listed companies and enhancing corporate governance, encouraging companies to increase dividend payouts and share buybacks [2] - The CSRC aims to strengthen long-term funding mechanisms and promote the development of equity public funds and index investments [2] - There will be an emphasis on cross-market and cross-border risk monitoring and management, as well as improving the long-term stability mechanisms of the market [2] Group 3: Reform Initiatives - The CSRC plans to implement reforms in the ChiNext board and accelerate the rollout of the "1+6" reform measures for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [2] - The development of private equity funds will be prioritized, along with the introduction of new key futures products and the pilot of commercial real estate REITs [2] - The CSRC will enhance the attractiveness of the capital market by optimizing the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system and improving the efficiency of overseas listing filings [2] Group 4: Regulatory Enhancements - The CSRC will leverage technology to enhance regulatory effectiveness and combat financial fraud, insider trading, and market manipulation [2] - New regulations for listed companies will be introduced, and revisions to laws governing securities companies and investment funds will be actively pursued [2] Group 5: Internal Governance - The CSRC is committed to strengthening party discipline and oversight within its system, ensuring the party's leadership in capital market operations [3] - There will be a focus on enhancing the accountability and supervision of public power in key areas [3] - The CSRC aims to build a robust regulatory team that balances strict management with incentives [3] Group 6: Year-End Focus - The CSRC is tasked with ensuring the successful completion of the "14th Five-Year" capital market initiatives while maintaining risk prevention and stability [3]