Core Viewpoint - The EU and the US trade negotiations are facing delays, with the possibility of extending beyond the July 9 deadline, as the EU is reluctant to make hasty concessions despite the threat of 50% punitive tariffs from the US [1][3][5]. Group 1: Negotiation Status - The EU believes that only a preliminary agreement can be reached by July 9, with further details needing additional negotiations [4][5]. - Recent discussions have focused on key sectors such as steel, aluminum, automotive, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and civil aviation, while also addressing tariff and non-tariff barriers [5]. Group 2: Potential Tariffs and Retaliation - If no agreement is reached by the July deadline, the US plans to impose 50% tariffs on nearly all EU exports, which could trigger retaliatory measures from the EU [2][6]. - The EU has warned that retaliatory measures targeting over $100 billion worth of US imports could take effect by July 14 if negotiations fail [7]. Group 3: EU's Retaliatory Measures - The first round of EU-approved tariffs targets $240 billion worth of US goods, focusing on politically sensitive areas such as agricultural products and motorcycles [7]. - A second round of tariffs aims at an additional $950 billion worth of US products, including Boeing aircraft and American-made cars, as a response to the US's "reciprocal tariffs" [8]. Group 4: Legal Context - The US Court of Appeals has allowed the continuation of the current tariff policies during ongoing litigation, which may last several months [9][10]. - The legal battle began after a ruling that deemed Trump's use of emergency powers to impose tariffs as potentially unlawful, with the case now under expedited review [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The progress in trade negotiations may limit the rise in gold prices, as optimism surrounding the US-China trade agreement increases and negotiations with other partners may yield short-term advancements [1] Group 1 - Financial expert Nikos Tzabouras indicates that the appeal of precious metals as a safe haven has strengthened due to the US court maintaining President Trump's so-called "reciprocal" tariffs during the appeal process [1] - The optimistic sentiment regarding the US-China trade agreement could suppress gold prices, potentially locking them within a narrow price range [1]

Group 1 - The core focus of the negotiations between the US and China in London includes topics such as rare earths, technology, and tariffs [2][4] - The US delegation has increased in size with the inclusion of Commerce Secretary Raimondo, highlighting the importance of export controls in the discussions [4] - The negotiations are seen as critical for the US to achieve trade agreements, especially as the deadline for the "reciprocal tariffs" approaches [5][7] Group 2 - The US aims to restore China's rare earth exports to pre-tariff levels, recognizing the strategic importance of these resources in the trade negotiations [8][11] - China dominates the global rare earth market, accounting for 61% of mining production and 92% of processing, making it a crucial player in the supply chain [11] - The US is increasingly dependent on Chinese rare earths for both civilian and military applications, with about 70% of its rare earth compounds and metals imported from China [11][13] Group 3 - The negotiations are characterized by a shift in power dynamics, with China's rare earth resources providing it with significant leverage over the US, altering the previous "strong US, weak China" narrative [13] - The atmosphere of the talks is reported to be positive, with both sides expressing optimism about potential outcomes [13]

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty brought by U.S. tariff policies is increasingly threatening international trade, particularly impacting key German ports like Hamburg and Bremen [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Ports - The waiting time for ships at Bremen port has increased by 77% and by approximately 49% at Hamburg port from late March to mid-May [2]. - Other major European ports, such as Antwerp, Rotterdam, and Felixstowe, are also experiencing extended waiting times for vessels [2]. - Labor shortages due to strikes, inadequate infrastructure, and adverse weather conditions are contributing to delays and operational disruptions at European northern ports [2]. Group 2: Causes of Bottlenecks - The adjustment of shipping alliances and terminal renovations are significant factors causing operational bottlenecks in German ports, exacerbated by the unpredictable U.S. tariff policies [2]. - The temporary suspension of high tariffs by the U.S. led to a surge in shipping volumes, further destabilizing the global logistics industry [2]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The potential resurgence of logistics bottlenecks similar to those experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic could lead to significant supply chain disruptions and increased commodity prices [3]. - Political decisions, such as the U.S. tariff policies, can quickly translate into real bottlenecks in ports and supply chains, signaling economic warnings [3]. - Increased transportation costs for smaller cargo due to U.S. tariffs will ultimately be passed on to American consumers [3].

Group 1 - The core point of the article revolves around the recent phone call between the Chinese and U.S. leaders, which aimed to ease trade tensions while also addressing the Taiwan issue, highlighting the delicate balance in U.S.-China relations [1][11]. - The call has raised concerns among Taiwanese political figures about Taiwan's potential marginalization in both economic and geopolitical contexts, particularly in light of U.S. trade policies [1][5]. - Trump's imposition of a 32% export tariff on Taiwan as part of his "reciprocal tariffs" policy is projected to have a direct impact on Taiwan's GDP, estimated between 15% to 20%, indicating significant economic repercussions for the region [3][4]. Group 2 - A recent poll indicated that 66.2% of Taiwanese respondents believe Trump would sacrifice Taiwan's interests for U.S. benefits, reflecting growing skepticism towards U.S. intentions [4]. - The phone call has intensified anxieties in Taiwan regarding its trade negotiations with the U.S., as local officials express concerns about being left behind in regional economic discussions [5][6]. - The conversation between the leaders is seen as a warning from Beijing to the Taiwanese authorities about the risks of escalating tensions, emphasizing that Taiwan is a core interest for China [9][12].

Group 1 - The upcoming fifth round of Japan-U.S. ministerial talks is focused on U.S. tariff policies, with Japan still not receiving any commitments from the U.S. despite ongoing negotiations [1] - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister, Akira Amari, indicated that the fourth round of talks made progress in understanding each other's positions, but Japan's goal of adjusting U.S. tariffs remains elusive [2] - The U.S. has set a basic tariff rate of 10% and an additional tariff rate of 14% on Japan, with the suspension period for additional tariffs ending on July 9 [2] Group 2 - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba plans to meet with President Trump during the G7 and NATO summits to push for tariff negotiations, although he acknowledges the complexity of the situation [3] - The U.S. has recently increased steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, which Japan aims to address in negotiations, as maintaining a 25% tariff on automobiles could cost Japanese companies 1 billion yen (approximately $699,000) per hour [2][6] - Japan is considering participating in the U.S. "Iron Dome" missile defense project, which could serve as leverage in tariff negotiations [4] Group 3 - The U.S. Defense Secretary has urged Japan to increase its defense spending, indicating a desire for stronger cooperation in defense and cybersecurity [5] - Japan has proposed various measures to the U.S. to encourage tariff reductions, including investments in U.S. energy and agricultural products, but has faced increased tariffs instead [6] - The Japanese government is exploring ways to increase its financial contribution to the U.S. military presence in Japan, currently estimated at 211 billion yen (approximately $1.47 billion) annually [6] Group 4 - The Japanese government hopes to achieve results in tariff negotiations by June, as the current parliamentary session ends on June 22, which could impact political stability [7] - The U.S. is seeking to share costs for the "Iron Dome" project, which Japan is interested in for enhancing its military capabilities, but there are concerns about the financial implications for Japan [7]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has raised steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, applying pressure on multiple countries to submit trade negotiation proposals by a specified deadline, which has sparked widespread controversy and concern internationally [1][3] - The current actual tariff level in the U.S. is the highest since 1938, and if the "reciprocal tariffs" are fully implemented, it will reach the highest level since the 1890s, directly impacting the stability of the global trade system [1][3] - The OECD has downgraded U.S. economic growth forecasts for 2025 from 2.2% to 1.6% and for 2026 to 1.5%, indicating significant negative repercussions on the U.S. economy due to the tariff policies [3][6] Group 2 - Vietnam has been specifically targeted by the U.S. to reduce its reliance on Chinese materials and components, which poses a significant threat to its economy as a large portion of its manufacturing relies on Chinese imports [3][4] - The structural dependency of Vietnam on Chinese intermediate products means that the costs of decoupling will far exceed the benefits gained from tariff reductions, complicating the trade relationship [4][6] - The increase in tariffs has led to rising costs in various sectors, including automotive and construction, with reports indicating an 8%-12% increase in metal packaging food prices in U.S. supermarkets [6][9] Group 3 - The U.S. tariff policy is causing a global chain reaction, with the EU and Japan considering countermeasures, and the uncertainty in international trade rules is leading to a decline in global investment and trade volumes [6][7] - Developing countries, particularly those reliant on steel and aluminum imports, are facing increased cost pressures, while African agricultural nations are losing market share due to increased U.S. agricultural exports [6][9] - The international community is showing a clear trend of division, with many countries refusing to take sides in the U.S.-China conflict, and multilateral cooperation mechanisms are gaining importance as a counter to unilateralism [7][9] Group 4 - China is positioning itself as a responsible global player, with significant increases in investment in ASEAN countries and cross-border e-commerce with Vietnam, indicating resilience in supply chains despite external pressures [9] - The U.S. tariff strategy is seen as an attempt to restructure the global economic order, but data suggests that this approach is leading to a "lose-lose" situation for all parties involved [9] - The future of the global economy hinges on whether unilateralism will undermine globalization or if cooperation can be fostered to create a more resilient governance system [9]

► 文 观察者网 张菁娟 在6月5日的美国众议院拨款委员会听证会上，一场关于"香蕉关税"的讨论意外成为焦点。 据美国公共广播公司（PBS）报道，美国商务部长卢特尼克（Howard Lutnick）在谈及贸易政策时坚称美国可以"生 产"和"种植"香蕉，遭到宾夕法尼亚州民主党众议员迪恩（Madeleine Dean）的驳斥。 迪恩表示，特朗普上任第一天就承诺要降低商品成本，但他现在所做的事效果完全相反，她从桌上拿起一根美国人 爱吃的香蕉为例问向卢特尼克："香蕉的关税是多少？" "香蕉的关税将取决于生产它们的国家。"卢特尼克回答说。 迪恩立即回应："我们无法在美国生产香蕉。" 然而卢特尼克并没有听进去，他继续重申在美国进行生产的优势时，迪恩两次强调"我们在美国种不出香蕉"。 美国主要分布在温带和亚热带地区，缺少种植香蕉的条件。美国的香蕉需求主要依赖进口。 报道称，美国从多个拉丁美洲国家进口这种水果，其中最主要的进口地是危地马拉、厄瓜多尔和哥斯达黎加。 迪恩追问，"关税具体是多少？" "一般是10%。"卢特尼克说。 "没错。10%。沃尔玛现在已经将香蕉价格提高了8%......"还没等迪恩说完，卢特尼克便打断了她的话 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. trade deficit significantly narrowed in April, dropping by 55.5% to $61.6 billion, marking the lowest level in 2023 and reversing the previous quarter's expansion [1] - Imports fell sharply by 16.3%, achieving a record decline, while exports unexpectedly increased by 3% [1] - The reduction in trade deficit is expected to positively impact U.S. GDP in the second quarter, despite potential inventory issues from prior import surges [1][4] Trade Dynamics - The sharp decline in imports was attributed to the implementation of high tariffs, which led to a sudden halt in the "rush to ship" goods before the tariffs took effect [1] - The U.S. trade deficit with China decreased to $19.7 billion, the lowest since the early pandemic, reflecting the impact of tariff policies aimed at achieving fair trade [5] - The trade balance with Canada and Mexico also improved, while the deficit with Switzerland turned into a surplus due to reduced gold exports to the U.S. [5] Economic Indicators - The April trade data suggests a potential positive contribution to GDP, following a 0.2 percentage point decline in the previous quarter [1][4] - However, rising unemployment claims, which reached 247,000, indicate a cooling labor market that could affect economic growth [4] - Adjusted for inflation, the trade deficit narrowed to $85.6 billion, the lowest since the end of 2023 [5]

接着，他扯上中国，声称越南从中国购买商品后再加价卖给美国，因此，"这只是一条中国商品流向美 国的通道"。 "所以，你不会接受与越南的提议？"肯尼迪问道。 "不，这是一笔糟糕的交易。我们才是握有资金的一方。我们才是拥有市场的一方。"卢特尼克表示，美 国想鼓励越南生产产品，他们很擅长生产。 肯尼迪继续发问，"你为什么要谈判贸易协议？你试图让其他国家降低关税和贸易壁垒，以换取我们降 低自己的"。 【文/观察者网 张菁娟】随着关税暂停期限的日益临近，多国政府正加紧与美方展开密集谈判，试图争 取关税豁免，然而，从美国释放的信号来看，单纯的"零关税"让步显然难以满足其胃口。 据彭博社6月4日报道，美国商务部长卢特尼克（Howard Lutnick）在参议院拨款委员会的听证会上回应 共和党联邦参议员肯尼迪（John Kennedy）质询时直言，即使越南决定取消对所有美国进口商品的关税 和贸易壁垒，美国也不会做出对等回应。 "假如越南明天来找你说，'好吧，部长先生，你赢了'，我们将取消所有关税和贸易壁垒。美国能否也 这么做？"肯尼迪问道。 卢特尼克语气坚决地回应称，"绝对不会，绝对不会，那将是我们能做的最愚蠢的事"。 在被肯 ...