O 0 Address 376 (199 133 11 11 the first 裁定非法 白明表示，按照1977年生效的《国际紧急经济权力法》，美国总统的确有权在紧急状态下对国会的权力"越俎代庖"，但并没有明确总统是否有权决定关税。 按照美国的法律，美国的关税权在国会，但现在特朗普随意解释总统的特殊权力，在很大程度上既有关税政策的制定权，又有关税的执行权，客观上是对美 国"三权分立"体制的否定。 提出上诉 美国媒体分析称，这项裁决是本届特朗普政府遭遇的最大司法挫折之一，相当于全盘否定了特朗普第二任期内关税战的法律基础。有美国贸易律师认为，这 是近几十年来美国总统在贸易政策上遭遇的最大法律挫折，"创造了历史"。法院通常对总统在贸易政策、外交事务等方面的权力给予较大尊重。 此番裁决暂停了特朗普政府对大多数美国进口商品征收的10%普遍关税，以及以打击芬太尼和非法移民为由对中国、墨西哥、加拿大加征的部分关税，但针 对汽车及钢铝行业征收的25%关税不受影响。 据美国媒体报道，美国以往通常援引《国际紧急经济权力法》对他国实施制裁或冻结资产，特朗普是第一个援引该法律来全面加征关税的美国总统。不过， 美国国际贸易法院负责裁 ...

Group 1 - China reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds by $18.9 billion as of the end of March, bringing the total to $765.4 billion, marking the largest sell-off of long-term bonds since February 2023 [3] - The UK increased its holdings of US Treasury bonds by $28.9 billion, surpassing China to become the second-largest holder, while Japan remains the largest holder with $1.1308 trillion [3] - The US Treasury market experienced significant volatility following President Trump's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs," leading to a sell-off of US bonds, which are typically viewed as a safe asset [3] Group 2 - Trump expressed willingness to visit China to discuss diplomatic and economic issues, emphasizing the importance of US-China relations, although trade negotiations have not fully resolved existing tensions [4] - The US has not yet responded to China's demands to lift tariffs on imports of automobiles and steel, while increasing restrictions on technology sectors, particularly targeting Chinese companies [4] - China has been accumulating gold for six consecutive months, indicating a lack of trust in the US's intentions regarding improving bilateral relations [4] Group 3 - China's Ministry of Commerce announced anti-dumping duties on imports of certain chemicals from the US and Japan, reflecting ongoing trade tensions and a response to US actions [6] - The US has implemented new measures to strengthen AI chip export controls, specifically targeting Huawei, which may exacerbate trade relations [6] - The WTO Director-General highlighted the need for reform in the dispute resolution mechanism, calling for Japan's leadership in expanding temporary arbitration arrangements [7] Group 4 - The current state of US-China relations is characterized by challenges across trade, technology, and international regulations, with both countries needing to reassess their strategies to foster a healthier relationship [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The China's economic growth in April showed resilience, with industrial production and exports exceeding market expectations, while fixed - asset investment and consumption slightly fell short. The 90 - day window period from the Sino - US economic and trade talks brought a short - term respite, but long - term uncertainties remain. After the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut in May, there is a low probability of another such move in the short - to - medium term. The "export rush" factor will contribute to the stable growth of the Chinese economy in the second quarter. Chinese treasury bond yields do not have much room to rise significantly, and treasury bond futures may fluctuate widely in the next month. A strategy of buying on dips and trading in bands can be considered [89]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Disk Review - **Treasury Futures Active Contract Trends**: Since November 2024, the treasury futures market had a significant continuous increase until January 2025. After the central bank suspended open - market treasury bond purchases on January 10, the 30 - year variety reached a high in early February and then declined until mid - March when it rebounded. In early April, the futures prices rose due to the US tariff news, then fluctuated horizontally. After the Sino - US joint statement on May 12, prices slightly declined and then had narrow - range fluctuations [9]. - **Treasury Bond Spot Yield Trends**: Most treasury bond spot yields reached their lowest points in early January, over - reacting to the "moderately loose monetary policy." After the central bank's announcement on January 10, yields rebounded. The short - term interest rates rebounded faster than long - term ones. The 10 - year treasury bond yield reached 1.90% in mid - March, dropped rapidly in early April due to tariffs, and then stabilized. As of May 28, it was around 1.68% [12]. - **Treasury Bond Spot Yield Curve**: On May 28, compared with the end of April, the yield curve shifted upward and steepened, showing a "bear steepening" pattern. The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond yields increased by 3BP, 6BP, 6BP, and 9BP respectively [15]. 3.2. Current Analysis - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: From January to April, national fixed - asset investment increased by 4.0% year - on - year, slightly lower than the expected 4.26%. General infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 10.85%, manufacturing investment by 8.8%, and real estate development investment decreased by 10.3%. High - tech industries and equipment purchase investment showed strong growth [20]. - **Real Estate Sales**: From January to April, the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 2.8% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased by 3.2% [23]. - **Social Consumption**: In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year - on - year, slightly lower than the expected 5.5%. Categories such as household appliances and furniture had significant year - on - year increases [26][29]. - **Service Industry**: In April, the national service industry production index increased by 6.0% year - on - year, slightly lower than March's 6.3% [32]. - **Foreign Trade**: In April, China's exports in US dollars increased by 8.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.2%. Exports to ASEAN increased by 20.8%, to the EU by 8.27%, and decreased by 21.03% to the US. After the Sino - US joint statement on May 12, the CCFI US - West route index rebounded [35][38][41]. - **Industrial Added Value**: In April, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 5.2% [44]. - **Industrial Profits**: From January to April, large - scale industrial enterprises' operating income increased by 3.2% year - on - year, and total profits increased by 1.4%. In April, profits increased by 3.0% year - on - year [47]. - **Social Financing and Credit**: In April, the social financing scale increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, and credit - caliber RMB loans increased by 2800 billion yuan, both lower than expected [50][53]. - **Monetary Supply**: At the end of April, M2 increased by 8.0% year - on - year, and M1 increased by 1.5% year - on - year [56]. - **Unemployment Rate**: In April, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.1%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month [59]. - **Prices**: In April, CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.7% year - on - year [62][65]. - **Central Bank Policies**: The central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points starting from May 15 and cut the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate by 10BP starting from May 8. LPR and bank deposit rates were also lowered [68][74]. - **Exchange Rate**: From January to April, the US dollar index declined, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB dropped after a brief rise in early April. The decline of the US dollar index reduced the pressure on the RMB's depreciation against the US dollar [71]. - **Interest Rate Spreads**: The Sino - US 10 - year treasury bond interest rate spread widened slightly in May compared to April. The 10 - year and 1 - year treasury bond interest rate spread and the 30 - year and 10 - year spread were at 0.22% on May 28 [80][86]. - **Government Bond Financing**: As of May 28, government bond net financing in May was 1494.8 billion yuan, maintaining a fast pace [83]. 3.3. Strategy Suggestions Considering that Chinese treasury bond yields do not have much room to rise significantly, and treasury bond futures may fluctuate widely in the next month, a strategy of buying on dips and trading in bands can be considered [89].

Core Points - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that President Trump's imposition of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) exceeded legal authority, declaring the trade deficit as a "national emergency" [1][3][5] - The court's decision prohibits the enforcement of the "reciprocal tariffs" announced on April 2, emphasizing that tariffs must be uniform and have nationwide effect [2][6] - The ruling indicates that the IEEPA does not grant the president authority to implement "global tariffs" or "retaliatory tariffs," and the court found no significant factual disputes, leading to a summary judgment against the U.S. government [3][5] Impact of the Ruling - The court's decision mandates the cancellation of the reciprocal tariffs and those previously imposed on China, Canada, and Mexico related to the fentanyl issue, giving the White House 10 days to cease these tariffs [8] - Following the ruling, the Trump administration immediately filed an appeal [7] - Analysts suggest that the ruling could lead to a temporary easing of tariffs, which may positively impact the U.S. dollar and stock market if the decision holds [12] Market Reactions - The ruling has led to increased trading activity in the A-share market, with significant inflows into stock ETFs observed, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [14][27] - Despite recent inflows, there were notable outflows from major indices like the CSI 300 and CSI 500, suggesting volatility in market confidence [22][25] - The overall trading volume in the A-share market has fluctuated, with a return to over 1 trillion yuan in trading on certain days, reflecting active capital market conditions [27]

文/高歌 李力是一家贸易企业的负责人，他的公司位于华南区域，主营业务是向美国等发达经济体市场出口消 费电子产品。不同于To B企业对于关税的敏感度，李力感觉关税摩擦对于他所在的公司影响有限。 5月23日，李力表示：" 关税 在我们的成本中只占一小部分 ， B端的模式是国外的人来这里大批量 采购货物，再分销给小B，关税提升会有一定的影响，我们是直接做C端的，影响不大。" 李力拆解了成本构成：运费、采购成本、关税以及美国当地的物流费用。其中关税并不占据绝大部 分。 目前关税价格尚未体现在产品的终端售价上，并且在可预期的未来，他所在的行业短时间内关 税提升的价格也不会显现在同类产品的价格之上，除非头部企业开始提价。 40天前，美所谓"对等关税"引发贸易震荡，美对华关税在短时间内接连攀升，一度高达145%。随 后中美日内瓦经贸会谈的落定为此轮关税摩擦摁下暂缓键。 5月12日公布的联合声明显示，美方承诺尽快取消4月8日和9日对华加征的91%非理性高额关税，同 时将34%所谓"对等关税"中24%的部分暂缓90天。 下一步中美经贸谈判迎来缓冲期。 李力在过去一个月的时间中在外贸一线亲历上述转变，他只觉得一切都"太快了"。他 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. International Trade Court's ruling halts President Trump's proposed tariffs, indicating potential legal and procedural challenges for the administration in implementing new tariffs [1][2][12]. Group 1: Court Ruling and Government Response - The U.S. International Trade Court blocked Trump's tariff policy, ruling that he overstepped his authority by imposing tariffs on countries with trade surpluses with the U.S. [1] - Goldman Sachs views the court's decision as relatively insignificant, suggesting that the Trump administration may utilize alternative legal provisions to impose tariffs [1][6]. - The White House has expressed a strong response, indicating it will leverage all available administrative powers to counter the ruling [2][3]. Group 2: Alternative Legal Provisions for Tariffs - The Trump administration has several alternative legal options to impose tariffs, including the Trade Act of 1974's Section 122, Section 301, and Section 232 [6][10]. - Section 122 allows for a rapid imposition of tariffs up to 15% without lengthy investigations, but it has a maximum duration of 150 days [7]. - Section 301 is a powerful tool for addressing unfair trade practices, allowing for unlimited tariffs but requiring lengthy investigations of 12-18 months [8][9]. - Section 232 grants broad authority to impose tariffs based on national security concerns, which has been used previously for steel and aluminum tariffs [10]. Group 3: Implications of the Court Ruling - The ruling signifies a structural shift in U.S. tariff policy, moving from unilateral executive actions to a more bureaucratic and evidence-based approach [12]. - The loss of the IEEPA as a tool for immediate and broad tariffs diminishes the Trump administration's leverage in trade negotiations, shifting focus to specific industries and unfair trade practices [13][14]. - The ruling establishes a precedent that emphasizes the need for adherence to established legal procedures in tariff imposition, reinforcing Congressional authority over trade matters [14].

如果关税未能持续征收，将削弱特朗普在国内外宣扬其经济成就和贸易强硬立场的说服 力，对其政治遗产和未来执政能力构成实质性挑战。 白宫对CIT的裁决将上诉至华盛顿特区的美国联邦巡回法院，最终可能上诉至美国最高法院。在上诉期 间，白宫可能会寻求紧急中止令，暂缓执行裁决，继续征收关税。 这次裁决给予行政部门最多10天时间完成停止征税的行政程序。如果特朗普政府在此期间成功获得了 紧急中止令，那么关税将继续征收，直到上诉法院或最高法院作出进一步裁决。 3、即使上诉最终失败，特朗普政府仍然可能寻求援引其他法律授权来复刻"对等关税"的效果。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛 5月28日，美国国际贸易法院（CIT）做出了一项重要裁决：认定"特朗普宣布的全球关税行政命令， 以及随后对报复国家征收额外关税的命令"均超出了总统在《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）下的权 限。此外，法院还裁定，以打击毒品贩运为由对墨西哥和加拿大征收关税的行政命令也属非法，原因是 这些关税未能有效解决毒品 贩运问题。 1、这次裁决暂停了特朗普绝大多数关税——"对等关税"和针对中国、加拿大和墨西哥征收的与芬太尼 相关的关税。 232条款和301条款加征的关税则不受影响 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The U.S. Federal Court's decision to block Trump's April 2 tariff policy from taking effect has boosted market risk appetite, which is expected to help the stock index futures oscillate upward in the short term. The report provides intraday and May 2025 trend forecasts for four major stock index futures contracts, including IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 [2][7][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook Highlights - On May 29, the main contracts of stock index futures IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 opened slightly higher. After opening, they rose, encountered resistance, and then fell back, followed by an oscillating upward trend. IF2506 and IH2506 rose slightly, while IC2506 and IM2506 showed relatively strong slight increases [2]. - The U.S. Federal Court's blockage of Trump's April 2 tariff policy is expected to help the stock index futures oscillate upward in the short term [2]. - Forecasts for intraday trends: - IF2506 is likely to oscillate strongly, targeting resistance levels at 3850 and 3864 points (3864 points has stronger resistance), with support levels at 3798 and 3775 points (3775 points has stronger support) [2][7][8]. - IH2506 is likely to oscillate strongly, targeting resistance levels at 2689 and 2699 points (2699 points has stronger resistance), with support levels at 2658 and 2646 points (2646 points has stronger support) [2][8][9]. - IC2506 is likely to oscillate strongly, targeting resistance levels at 5700 and 5749 points (5749 points has stronger resistance), with support levels at 5560 and 5549 points (5549 points has stronger support) [3][9][10]. - IM2506 is likely to oscillate strongly, targeting resistance levels at 6038 and 6102 points (6102 points has stronger resistance), with support levels at 5905 and 5873 points (5873 points has stronger support) [3][10]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Stock Market News - On May 28, the U.S. Federal Court blocked Trump's April 2 tariff policy from taking effect and ruled that Trump overstepped his authority by imposing comprehensive tariffs on countries that export more to the U.S. than they import [2][4]. - The lawsuit was filed by the Freedom and Justice Center on behalf of five U.S. small businesses affected by the tariffs, marking the first major legal challenge to Trump's tariff policy [4]. - On April 2, Trump signed an executive order on so - called "reciprocal tariffs," announcing a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on trading partners and higher tariffs on some [4]. - The Trump administration filed an appeal notice minutes after the ruling, and the White House spokesperson condemned the ruling. The ruling gives the executive branch up to 10 days to stop collecting tariffs [6]. 3.3 Technical Analysis and Market Outlook - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the following trends are expected for the main futures contracts on May 29: - IF2506 opened slightly higher, rose, encountered resistance, and then oscillated upward. It closed at 3839.0 points at noon, up 0.85%. It failed to break through the resistance at 3850 points and the 10 - day moving average, but showed a short - term rebound [7]. - IH2506 opened slightly higher, rose, encountered resistance, and then oscillated upward. It closed at 2683.4 points at noon, up 0.61%. It failed to break through the resistance at 2699 points and the 10 - day moving average, but showed a short - term rebound [8]. - IC2506 opened slightly higher, rose, encountered resistance, and then oscillated upward. It closed at 5652.0 points at noon, up 1.59%. It failed to break through the resistance at 5700 points but broke through multiple moving averages and showed a short - term rebound [9]. - IM2506 opened slightly higher, rose, encountered resistance, and then oscillated upward. It closed at 6004.0 points at noon, up 1.89%. It failed to break through the resistance at 6037.8 points but broke through multiple moving averages and showed a short - term rebound [10]. - Forecasts for May 2025 trends: - The IF main contract is likely to oscillate strongly in a wide range, targeting resistance levels at 3933 and 4004 points, with support levels at 3700 and 3675 points [10]. - The IH main contract is likely to oscillate strongly in a wide range, targeting resistance levels at 2766 and 2800 points, with support levels at 2600 and 2572 points [11]. - The IC main contract is likely to oscillate strongly in a wide range, targeting resistance levels at 5759 and 5962 points, with support levels at 5434 and 5345 points [11]. - The IM main contract is likely to oscillate strongly in a wide range, targeting resistance levels at 6196 and 6332 points, with support levels at 5757 and 5657 points [11].

Group 1 - The article discusses the U.S. International Trade Court's decision to suspend the Trump administration's tariff policy announced on April 2, which aimed to impose tariffs on all trade partners under the guise of "reciprocal tariffs" [3] - The court ruled that the President does not have the authority to impose comprehensive tariffs on nearly all trade partners, stating that Congress's delegation of "unrestricted tariff power" to the President is unconstitutional [3] - A coalition of 12 states filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration, claiming the tariff policy was an arbitrary exercise of power rather than a legitimate authority [3] Group 2 - The article highlights China's opposition to the U.S. decision to cancel student visas for Chinese nationals, arguing that it undermines the rights of Chinese students and disrupts normal cultural exchanges between the two countries [4] - China has lodged formal protests against the U.S. actions, which are characterized as politically motivated and discriminatory, further damaging the U.S.'s international image and credibility [4] Group 3 - The article mentions China's deployment of meteorological observation buoys in its jurisdictional waters east of Taiwan, asserting that this action complies with both domestic and international law [5] - Relevant Chinese authorities are reportedly conducting routine maintenance on these buoys as part of their operational needs [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. International Trade Court (CIT) ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not grant the President unlimited authority to impose tariffs, leading to the annulment of related tariff measures [1][7]. Group 1: Court Ruling Details - The CIT combined two cases, one initiated by the Liberty Justice Center on behalf of five small businesses challenging the "reciprocal tariffs" and another by the Oregon Attorney General representing twelve states against global tariffs, retaliatory tariffs, and fentanyl tariffs [3]. - The court confirmed that the IEEPA does not explicitly authorize the President to impose unlimited tariffs, which have significant economic and political implications [4][5]. - The ruling stated that the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration exceeded the authority granted by the IEEPA and violated constitutional principles [6][7]. Group 2: Implications for Trade Policy - The ruling could represent a significant policy shift, particularly benefiting small and medium-sized enterprises that struggle to absorb the costs of tariffs [6]. - The decision emphasizes that trade decisions should not be made unilaterally by the President without Congressional authorization, reaffirming the importance of legislative oversight [4][5]. - The CIT's ruling applies nationwide, affecting all importers, but does not address tariffs authorized under other laws, such as those related to steel and aluminum [7].