大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2025 年 5 月 12 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 成交量 增减幅 持仓量 增减幅 5,885 4 6 0.76% 189,669 29.10% 308,154 -2.82% 5,970 4 8 0.81% 23,237 26.75% 34,835 -4.33% 6,060 1 3 0.21% 777 -4.78% 7,207 -8.46% 柳州 昆明 湛江 南宁 鲅鱼圈 日照 西安 6220 6000 6190 6155 6300 6270 6550 1 0 1 5 0 2 0 0 -20 1 0 160 -60 130 9 5 240 210 490 SR05-SR07 价差 涨跌 SR05-SR09 价差 涨跌 SR07-SR09 价差 涨跌 -90 3 5 175 -33 8 5 2 国别 ICE主力 升贴水 运费 配额内价格 配额外价格 与柳州价差 与日照价差 与盘面价差 巴西进口 17.82 0.16 3 7 4733 6058 162 212.00 -88 泰国进口 17.82 0.8 1 8 4716 6036 184 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The international soybean market supply and demand is generally loose, and the new US soybean crop is expected to face pressure. The South American market is in the peak supply period, and prices are expected to remain under pressure. In the domestic market, the arrival volume of soybeans is expected to increase, and the supply situation is expected to improve, but there is still some pressure [2][3]. - The raw sugar is affected by the expected high - yield in Brazil and shows a weak trend, but is expected to fluctuate due to the support of buying orders below. The domestic sugar market has a higher sales - to - production ratio and low inventory, driving Zhengzhou sugar to be stronger than raw sugar. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8][11]. - The macro - factors will still have a significant impact on the oil market. In the short term, the Malaysian palm oil is expected to accumulate inventory significantly in April and continue to increase production and accumulate inventory later. The domestic soybean oil inventory will start to accumulate, and the basis may weaken. The domestic rapeseed oil supply exceeds demand, and the decline space may be limited [17][20]. - The US corn is sowing faster and is in a bottom - shock state. The domestic corn supply is relatively short, and the spot price is still strong, but the increase space may be limited. The futures price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [28][29]. - The recent enthusiasm for hog slaughter is average, but the supply pressure is still reflected due to the increase in slaughter weight. The futures market is expected to face pressure [35]. - The peanut spot trading volume is still small, and the downstream consumption is weak. However, the large - scale oil mills' increased purchases boost the market, and the new - season peanuts in October still have room for rebound [39][43]. - The overall supply of eggs is expected to be sufficient, and the egg price has shown signs of stability recently. It is recommended to close out the previous short positions and wait and see [49][51]. - The apple cold - storage inventory is at a low level this year, and the supply is likely to be tight before the new fruit is on the market. The demand is okay, and the spot price is strong. The apple price is expected to continue to fluctuate slightly stronger [54][58]. - The short - term supply of cotton is sufficient, and the demand is average. The market has entered the off - season. Considering the uncertainty of global trade policies, especially the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations, it is recommended to wait and see [63][66]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - **外盘情况**：CBOT大豆指数持平于1043.75美分/蒲式耳，CBOT豆粕指数下跌0.67%至297.4美元/短吨[2] - **相关资讯**：预计美国2025/26年度大豆期末库存为3.62亿蒲式耳，产量料为43.38亿蒲式耳；中国4月大豆进口608.1万吨；国际豆粕出口主要供应国出口量转降；截至5月9日当周，油厂大豆实际压榨量184.6万吨，开机率51.89%，大豆库存较上周增加3.3%，同比增加13.28%，豆粕库存较上周增加9.76%，同比减少84.36%[2] - **逻辑分析**：国际市场供需偏宽松，美豆新作有压力，南美处于供应高峰期价格承压；国内大豆到港量增加，油厂开机率恢复，供应好转但仍有压力[3] - **交易策略**：单边偏空思路为主；套利观望；期权卖出宽跨式策略[6] Sugar - **外盘情况**：昨日ICE美糖主力合约上涨0.32（1.83%）至17.82美分/磅[7] - **重要资讯**：截至2025年4月底，本制糖期全国产糖1110.72万吨，同比增加11.59%，销售食糖724.46万吨，同比增加26.07%，销糖率65.22%；印度2025 - 26年度糖产量预计达3500万吨，增长26%；现货方面，部分制糖集团和加工厂报价有调整，后半段成交尚可[8][9][10] - **逻辑分析**：原糖受巴西丰产预期影响偏弱，预计震荡运行；国内产销比高、库存低带动郑糖强于原糖，预计短期震荡运行，关注广西天气[11] - **交易策略**：单边震荡运行，波段操作；套利观望；期权卖出宽跨式期权[12][13][14] Oilseeds and Oils - **外盘情况**：隔夜CBOT美豆油主力价格变动0.25%至48.64美分/磅；BMD马棕油主力价格变动0.37%至3815林吉特/吨，周一马盘休市[16] - **相关资讯**：巴西2024/25年度大豆作物商业化销售达预期产量的57%，较去年同期和历史均值延迟；阿根廷2024/25年度大豆收割率为45%，落后去年同期；加拿大油菜籽出口量增加，库存为120.1万吨；5月9日，油脂总成交环比增加63%[17][18][19] - **逻辑分析**：中美谈判达成共识，宏观因素影响盘面；4月马棕累库明显，后期继续增产累库，中国和印度买船积极性增加；巴西大豆到港，国内油厂压榨量增加，豆油库存累库，基差或走弱；国内菜油供大于求，盘面受国际关系影响反复，下跌空间有限[20] - **交易策略**：单边预计短期油脂震荡运行，豆油和菜油有利多支撑，棕榈油基本面转弱，可轻仓试多博反弹或反弹后逢高空；套利YP 09可部分止盈部分持有；期权观望[21][22][23] Corn/Corn Starch - **外盘变化**：CBOT玉米期货外盘反弹，主力合约反弹0.2%，收盘为450.5美分/蒲[27] - **重要资讯**：截至5月9日当周，CBOT玉米期货延续下跌，美国玉米播种顺利，巴西二季玉米丰产预期压制价格；美国玉米主产州未来6 - 10日部分地区气温低于正常、降水高于正常；全国饲料企业平均库存增加；5月12日北港收购价稳定，华北产区周末回调[28] - **逻辑分析**：美玉米播种加快，底部震荡；国内玉米供应少，东北玉米上涨，港口价格稳定，抛储和糙米拍卖传闻影响下，华北玉米现货回落，小麦价格上涨，玉米现货仍偏强，中长期上涨空间有限，07玉米高位震荡，期现价差缩小[29] - **持仓建议**：单边外盘07玉米450美分/蒲附近有支撑，07玉米等待回调，观望为主；套利玉米和淀粉套利震荡操作，逢低做扩；期权有现货的可考虑逢高累沽策略[32][33] Hogs - **相关资讯**：生猪价格整体震荡，部分地区持平或有小幅度涨跌；仔猪价格下跌，母猪价格持平；农产品批发价格指数和猪肉平均价格下降[35] - **逻辑分析**：近期生猪出栏积极性一般，但出栏体重增加使供应压力体现，大小猪价差回落或使出栏增加，关注现货跌价情况，期货预计有压力[35] - **交易策略**：单边偏空思路为主；套利LH79反套；期权卖出宽跨式策略[38] Peanuts - **重要资讯**：各地花生通货米有报价区间；部分油厂到货及成交价格情况；花生油报价偏强，有议价空间；花生粕走货少；国内花生油样本企业花生库存减少，花生油库存增加[39][40] - **逻辑分析**：花生现货成交少，新季花生价格稳定，进口花生价格稳定、进口量大幅减少，花生油厂收购价格稳定，下游消费弱；豆粕现货回落，花生粕价格稳定，油厂有利润，大型油厂收购量增加；市场预计新季种植面积增加，河南等地干旱易炒作天气，10花生有反弹空间[41][43] - **持仓建议**：单边10花生轻仓逢低短多；套利观望；期权观望[44][45][46] Eggs - **重要资讯**：主产区和主销区均价下跌后全国主流价格多数上涨；4月份全国在产蛋鸡存栏量增加，样本企业蛋鸡苗月度出苗量增加；5月9日一周全国主产区蛋鸡淘鸡出栏量增加；5月1日当周全国代表销区鸡蛋销量减少，生产和流通环节库存增加；鸡蛋盈利减少，蛋鸡养殖预期利润上涨[48][49][50] - **交易逻辑**：鸡蛋整体供应充足，在产存栏量高，蛋价跌至当前位置后有稳定迹象，建议前期空单获利平仓观望[51] - **交易策略**：单边空单可考虑获利平仓；套利多08空09；期权观望[52] Apples - **重要资讯**：截至2025年4月16日，全国主产区苹果冷库库存量减少，去库同比加快；2024 - 2025年苹果进出口量有变化；冷库苹果剩余量低于往年同期，山东产地冷库惜售，出货速度后期放缓，陕西产区价格稳定，出货情况尚可但可供交易货量不大；山东和陕西产区现货价格有变动，栖霞存储商利润增加[54][55][56] - **交易逻辑**：今年苹果冷库库存处于低位，新果上市前供应大概率偏紧，需求端走货尚可，现货价格偏强，4月份西部产区天气影响部分产区坐果，预计苹果走势震荡略偏强[58] - **交易策略**：单边AP10短期逢低建仓多单；套利建议先观望；期权建议先观望[59][60][61] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **外盘影响**：昨日ICE美棉主力合约下跌0.01（0.01%）至66.72美分/磅[62] - **重要资讯**：中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，将建立磋商机制；美棉主产区和德州干旱指数下行；CFTC发布ICE棉花期货合约ON - CALL数据，卖方未点价合约有变动[63][64][65] - **交易逻辑**：基本面棉花短期供应充足，需求一般，进入需求淡季，纱线和坯布库存有累库迹象；全球经济和贸易政策不确定性大，关注中美关税谈判后续动态，建议观望[66] - **交易策略**：单边预计未来美棉走势大概率震荡略偏强，郑棉近期宏观不确定性大，建议观望；套利空09多01；期权观望[67][68][69]

涨跌都能赚 盈利就能离场！点击开通期货"T+0、双向交易"特权！>>> 集运指数(欧线)主力合约日内涨幅扩大至9.00%，现报1377.9点。 ...

2025.05.12-05.16 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 建议观望。 3 中线策略建议 中线行情分析 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价整体趋势处于下行通道中,资金方面较为偏空。 M2509预计短期内弱势震荡，运行区间：2850-3050，可考虑 区间操作。 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于弱势震荡整理的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据：第18周油厂大豆实际压榨量152.3万吨，开机率42.81%； 大豆库存474.64万吨，较上周增加15.16万吨，增幅3.30%；豆粕库存 8.21万吨，较上周增加0.73万吨，增幅9.76%。国内油厂大豆库存持续回 升，开机率逐步恢复，但区域性供需错配延缓豆粕累库，库存仍处低位。 巴西大豆收割尾声叠加集中到港强化供应宽松格局。尽管阶段性低库存 对价格形成支撑，但南美集中上市及国内供应增加预期压制上行空间， 综合来看豆粕期价处于弱势震荡整理阶段。 2 n 本周策略建议 豆粕期价整体趋势处于下行通道中,资金方面略微偏多。M2509 ...

黄金期货 2025.05.12-05.16 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 01 P A R T Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 沪金期货整体趋势处在上升通道中，当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周美联储召开议息会议，维持基准利率不变，并指出关税对通胀的影 响较大且不确定，美元指数止跌反弹，黄金高位震荡。中长期支撑逻辑： 美国财政赤字及全球央行购金仍提供基本面支撑。后续需关注美联储政 策路径、地缘冲突与关税进展。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 黄金短期回调压力犹存，等待时机配置买入看涨期权。黄金主力 合约2506下方支撑：758－765，上方压力829-836。 n 本周策略建议 黄金短期回调，等待时机配置买入看涨期权。黄金主力合约2508 下方支撑：776－785，上方压力828-837。 品种诊断情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 精选指标情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Myste ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the remarkable journey of Li Sanlin, who transformed a modest investment of 10,000 yuan into 1 million yuan through his dedication and skill in the futures market [1][5]. Group 1: Background and Early Journey - Li Sanlin, born into an ordinary farming family, developed a strong desire for knowledge and curiosity about the futures market, which set him apart from his peers [3]. - He began his trading career in 2010, relying on online resources for self-education due to the lack of local literature on futures [3]. Group 2: Trading Strategy and Success - After a period of trial and error, Li Sanlin developed a high-frequency day trading system characterized by strict time management, high win-rate entry strategies, and rigorous stop-loss controls [4]. - From 2011, he achieved consistent profitability, recording 30 consecutive months without losses and turning an initial investment of less than 20,000 yuan into over 100 times that amount [4]. Group 3: Recognition and Challenges - Li Sanlin gained national recognition by winning the second Hexun Futures Competition, where he turned 10,000 yuan into 1 million yuan in a short time [5]. - As his fame grew, he faced increased scrutiny and pressure, necessitating more precise market trend analysis and risk management [6]. Group 4: Trading Philosophy and Mindset - His trading philosophy emphasizes the psychological aspects of trading, advocating for the control of greed and fear, and the importance of exiting trades promptly after achieving profits [7][10]. - Li Sanlin employs unique methods for mindset adjustment, including clearing profits daily and prioritizing rest to avoid fatigue [7]. Group 5: Trading Wisdom and Principles - He has articulated several key trading principles, such as focusing on volatile and liquid instruments, setting clear profit and stop-loss targets, and maintaining a strategic mindset [9][11][12]. - His insights also include the importance of not letting past trades dictate future targets and recognizing optimal conditions for increasing positions [13][14]. Group 6: Legacy and Inspiration - Li Sanlin's journey serves as an inspiration, demonstrating that success in the futures market is achievable through persistence, effort, and the right strategies [15]. - His story exemplifies the idea that knowledge can change one's destiny, motivating others to pursue their dreams in the trading arena [15][16].

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至5月08日收盘主力合约上证50指数期货2506,涨跌+0.82%,成交量3.13万手，持仓数据显示前20席位 呈现净空，差额头寸为5420手。 上证50指数期货期货全合约总计成交5.20万手，比上一日新增1015手。全合约前20席位多头持仓6.09万手，比上一日减少179手。 全合约前20席位空头持仓7.16万手，比上一日减少357手。 文章来源:新浪期货 2025年5月8日上证50指数期货主力合约2506持仓数据 | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 增減 | | 会员 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖車 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | J | 国泰君安 | 10,519 | 1,136 | 国泰君安 | 7,369 | 233 | 国泰君安 | 9,102 | 038 | | 2 | 中信期货 | 8,966 | -668 | 中信期货 | 5,039 | -671 | 中信期货 | 5,187 | -441 | | 3 | 海通期货 | 4,306 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, energy chemicals, and shipping. Different commodities face different supply - demand situations and market factors, leading to diverse trading outlooks [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: Prices oscillated. Supply of copper ore remained tight, and domestic inventories decreased weekly. Short - term trading should adopt an oscillatory approach [1]. - **Zinc**: The 2506 contract price declined. Supply was expected to be in surplus in the long - run, and 5 - month consumption was pessimistic. If domestic demand was insufficient, prices might fall further, but short - term support came from low inventories [1]. - **Lead**: The 2506 contract price rose. Supply was affected by raw material shortages and low production enthusiasm. Demand was weak, and post - holiday inventory accumulation was likely. Buying on dips after price drops was advisable [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The 2506 contract price increased. Supply was expected to increase with some restarts, and demand was weak. Short - selling on rebounds was recommended [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The 2507 contract price rose. Supply decreased, and demand was mixed. Futures prices were expected to oscillate downward, and holding short positions or waiting was recommended [1][2]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The PS2506 contract price fluctuated. Bulls and bears were in a tug - of war, and waiting was recommended [2]. - **Tin**: Prices were strong. Market risk preference was boosted, and short - term trading should be based on an oscillatory view [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract price fell. Supply and demand were both weak, and inventory pressure was low due to low production. Short positions should be held [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract price declined. Near - term supply - demand was neutral - strong, but medium - term surplus was expected. Short positions in the 2509 contract could be attempted [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract price decreased. Supply - demand was relatively loose, and waiting was recommended [3][4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans were expected to oscillate, and domestic soybeans were short - term bearish and medium - term followed the international market. Trade policies and sowing areas should be monitored [5]. - **Corn**: The 2507 contract price oscillated. Supply - demand tightened, and prices were expected to rise. Buying on dips was recommended [5]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract price rose. Brazil's new season was expected to be productive, and domestic prices were expected to fall with a smaller margin. A bearish trading approach was recommended [5]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and Zhengzhou cotton prices also declined. Selling on rallies was recommended [5]. - **Log**: The 07 contract price dropped. Supply was strong, demand was weak, and waiting was recommended [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil prices rose. Supply was seasonally increasing, and demand improved. It was in a seasonal weak phase, and production and policies should be monitored [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2506 contract price oscillated. Supply was high, and prices were expected to decline [6]. - **Pigs**: The 2509 contract price oscillated. Supply was increasing, and prices were expected to decline with resistance [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract price fell. Supply was increasing, and demand was expected to decline. Short - term and long - term short - selling on rallies were recommended [7]. - **PVC**: The V09 contract price declined. Supply was large, and exports cooled. After the contract returned to a high premium, hedging was recommended [7]. - **PTA**: PX supply decreased, and PTA short - term pressure eased. Positive spreads should be held, and short - selling on far - month rebounds was recommended [8]. - **Glass**: The FG09 contract price fell. Supply was increasing, and inventory was accumulating. Prices were expected to continue falling [8]. - **PP**: The main contract price fell. Supply was rising, and demand was expected to weaken due to tariffs. Short - term prices were expected to oscillate downward [8]. - **MEG**: Supply pressure increased, and demand was weak. Short - term waiting was recommended, and cost support should be monitored [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices rebounded. Short - term prices were expected to oscillate, and the Brent price range was $55 - 65 per barrel [8][9]. - **Styrene**: Supply was expected to accumulate slightly, and demand was affected by tariffs. Prices were expected to follow the cost of pure benzene and oscillate downward [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The SA09 contract price fell. Supply was high, and inventory was difficult to digest. Prices were expected to oscillate, and selling out - of - the - money call options at 1500 was recommended [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The sh09 contract price fell. Inventory decreased, and prices were expected to stop falling and stabilize [9]. Shipping - **European Line Container Shipping**: The main contract price fell. Supply was affected by tariff policies, and demand was mixed. Unilateral trading should wait, and a light - position long spread for 8 - 10 months could be tried [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to be in a weak oscillation state, with the overall trend following the weak performance of the black - series commodities [1] - The spread between the prices of the two types of silicon is expected to widen in the short - term, and one can try to conduct long - spread arbitrage. For silicomanganese on a single - side basis, one can try to go short at high prices and set stop - losses [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - Yesterday, the main contract of silicomanganese SM2509 closed at 5758, up 2.86% compared to the opening price; the main contract of ferrosilicon SF2506 closed at 5472, up 0.77% compared to the opening price [1] Important Information - In late April 2025, key steel enterprises produced 22.02 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.202 million tons, a 1.2% decrease in daily output compared to the previous period; the steel inventory was 15.29 million tons, a decrease of 1.42 million tons (8.5%) compared to the previous ten - day period [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 8741700 tons, a decrease of 95200 tons (1.1%) compared to the previous week; the total inventory was 14.7607 million tons, an increase of 289700 tons (2.0%); the weekly apparent consumption of the five major products was 8463700 tons, a decrease of 12.7% compared to the previous week [1] - South 32 announced the manganese ore quotation for China in June 2025. The price of South African semi - carbonate manganese ore is $3.8 per ton - degree, a decrease of $0.25 per ton - degree compared to the May price [1] Market Logic - Yesterday, the daily trading position of silicomanganese decreased by 25000 lots to 413000 lots, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 2992 to 120174. Although the spot pressure has eased, the absolute value of inventory is still high, limiting the upside space. There is a co - existence of short - position profit - taking and long - position profit - taking [1] - Fundamentally, large southern silicomanganese plants are in a state of shutdown for maintenance, but the cost of the manganese ore end is constantly declining, so the silicomanganese market is still regarded as weak. For ferrosilicon, the settlement electricity price in Ningxia decreased in April, but there is an expectation of an increase in May, and the power cost support is relatively stable. Although the number of production enterprises in the supply side for shutdown and maintenance is increasing, the pattern of loose supply and demand is difficult to change [1] Trading Strategy - Try long - spread arbitrage as the spread between the two types of silicon prices is expected to widen in the short - term. For single - side silicomanganese trading, try to go short at high prices and set stop - losses [1]

Group 1: Overall Information - The report is from Green Grand Futures Research Institute on May 8, 2025 [1] - The researcher is Li Fanglei with qualification F03104461 and trading consultation qualification Z0021311, contact number 19339940612 [1] Group 2: Sugar Market Market Review - SR509 contract closed at 5868 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.37%, and 5825 yuan/ton at night. SR601 contract closed at 5730 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.21%, and 5695 yuan/ton at night [1] - ICE raw sugar July contract closed at 17.14 cents/pound yesterday with a daily decline of 1.55%. London white sugar August contract closed at 485.3 dollars/ton with a daily decline of 1.52% [1] Important Information - As of May 5, 2025, Russia sowed 1.00985 million hectares of sugar beets [1] - Brazil's central - southern region produced 731,000 tons of sugar in the first half of April, a 1.25% increase from last year. The cane crushing volume was 16.59 million tons, a 3% year - on - year increase [1] - As of April 30, 2025, in the 2024/25 sugar season in India, there were 19 sugar mills still in production, 4 less than last year. The crushed cane was 275.857 million tons, a decrease of 35.655 million tons (11.44%) from last year, and the sugar production was 25.695 million tons, a decrease of 5.77 million tons (18.33%) [1] - In Hainan, as of the end of April in the 2024/24 sugar season, the sugar sales rate was 27.59% with an inventory of 39,900 tons [1] - Yesterday, the spot price of Guangxi white sugar was 6079 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. Guangxi Sugar Group quoted 6130 - 6260 yuan/ton with a few down 10 yuan/ton. Yunnan Sugar Group quoted 5940 - 5980 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation of processing sugar factories was 6360 - 6920 yuan/ton, adjusted by 10 - 30 yuan/ton with mixed changes [1] - The previous trading day, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's white sugar warehouse receipts were 30,301, a daily increase of 1672 [1] - The previous trading day, the SR9 - 1 spread was 138 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day [1] Market Logic - For the external market, ICE raw sugar futures fell again and basically gave back recent gains. Overseas sugar supply is expected to be good and there is insufficient capital buying intention, so the external market may test the 17 - cent/pound support and trade in a low - level oscillation [1] - For the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar fell slightly yesterday and opened and moved lower at night affected by the external market. There is limited domestic trading information, and the import ban on syrup and premixed powder makes the domestic and foreign sugar prices more closely linked. The key is whether the downward space of raw sugar can be opened, and the strengthening basis will also support the sugar price [1] Trading Strategy - Hold the previous long positions for now. If it breaks below 5800 yuan/ton, exit and wait for the market sentiment to subside, then look for support at 5750 yuan/ton. Hold the SR9 - 1 calendar spread long position [1] Group 3: Jujube Market Market Review - CJ509 contract closed at 9050 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.06% [3] Important Information - The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,505 tons, a 0.15% decrease from the previous period and a 52.96% increase year - on - year [3] - Yesterday, 8 trucks of jujubes arrived at Guangzhou Ruyifang, an increase of 3 from the previous day [3] - The previous trading day, the jujube warehouse receipts were 8513, an increase of 15 [3] - The previous trading day, the CJ9 - 1 spread was - 960 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan from the previous day [3] Market Logic - Jujubes are in the traditional off - season, and market demand is still weak. There is limited trading information, and whether the supply side can provide upward momentum remains to be seen. In the short term, jujube futures prices lack upward drivers, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the impact of upstream weather [3] Trading Strategy - For the CJ509 contract, consider a small - scale long position after the current negative factors are digested, waiting for the weather - related market to develop. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see [3] Group 4: Rubber Market Market Review - As of May 7, RU2509 contract closed at 14,810 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.03%. NR2506 contract closed at 12,575 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.16%. BR2506 contract closed at 11,375 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.53% [4] Important Information - Thailand's raw material glue price was 59.5 Thai baht/kg, and cup rubber price was 53.55 Thai baht/kg. In Yunnan, the price of glue for producing whole milk was 13,800 yuan/ton, and for producing concentrated milk was 14,000 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 200 yuan/ton. Yunnan's rubber block price was 13,100 yuan/ton. In Hainan, the price of glue for producing whole milk was 13,100 yuan/ton, and for producing concentrated latex was 14,100 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 1000 yuan/ton [4] - As of May 4, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 614,200 tons, a 0.9% increase from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 85,000 tons, a 4.3% increase, and the general trade inventory was 529,200 tons, a 0.38% increase [4] - As of April 30, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.69%, a decrease of 5.67 percentage points from the previous period and 12.29 percentage points lower year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.54%, a decrease of 6.25 percentage points from the previous period and 11.74 percentage points higher year - on - year [4] - Yesterday, the price of whole milk was 14,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 20 - grade Thai standard rubber was 1760 dollars/ton, down 10 dollars (- 0.56%), equivalent to 12,673 yuan/ton in RMB. The price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber was 14,400 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan (- 0.35%) [4] - Yesterday, the basis of whole milk and the RU main contract was - 110 yuan/ton, narrowing by 5 yuan/ton. The price difference between mixed standard rubber and the RU main contract was - 410 yuan/ton, widening by 45 yuan/ton [4] - Yesterday, the price of Shandong market's Daqing cis - butadiene BR9000 was stable at 11,550 yuan/ton, and the price of Shandong market's Qilu styrene - butadiene 1502 was stable at 12,100 yuan/ton [4] - Yesterday, the domestic butadiene industry's capacity utilization rate was 69.25%, a slight decrease of 0.62 percentage points from the previous day [4] - Yesterday, the butadiene delivery price in Shandong's central region was 9300 - 9500 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was about 9000 yuan/ton [4] Market Logic - Natural rubber: It strengthened slightly and then fell again yesterday, and continued to decline at night. The previous small positive news did not boost the market continuously, and the domestic macro - environment did not meet expectations, calming market sentiment. The phenological conditions of rubber plantations at home and abroad are good, and tire factory sales are still not optimistic. So the upward space of the market is limited, and the price may oscillate to find a direction [4] - Synthetic rubber: The supply of butadiene is still abundant, but demand - side support is limited and has little impact on BR rubber. The spot price of cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong remained stable, and terminal procurement is mainly for rigid demand. The weak fundamentals of BR remain unchanged, and it may continue to oscillate at a low level without new news [4] Trading Strategy - For RU, focus on the support range of 14,400 - 14,550 yuan/ton and the resistance range of 15,000 - 15,200 yuan/ton. For NR, focus on the support range of 12,000 - 12,100 yuan/ton and the resistance range of 12,800 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Given the limited drivers, high - selling and low - buying short - term operations are the main strategy. For the BR main contract, the lower support range is 10,900 - 11,000 yuan/ton, and the resistance range is 11,600 - 11,800 yuan/ton. Take a bearish attitude in the short term [4]