对机构与个人投资者来说， "十五五规划"不再只是新闻里的几个关键词，而是未来几年产业方向、 政策支持和资金流向的 导航图 。 用 Alice 选基，把国家战略变成投资组合 Wind金融终端输入命令" FF " 点击基金-多维数据-" 基金索引（ FF） "。 // 从政策语言到选基语言 // 传统做 "规划主题基金池"，往往要先看文件、拆方向，再回到终端里一条条设条件、反复调参—— 过程清楚，但很耗精力。 "十五五"时期（2026–2030 年），被明确为迈向 2035 年基本实现社会主义现代化的关键五年。官方 建议里已经划出了一条很清晰的主线： Alice 选基做了两件事： 1）一句话需求，系统自动"翻译"指标 你可以直接用 "人话"提需求，比如：" 如何提前布局十五五规划基金 " ， 在这句话背后，系统会自 动拆解出一组可执行条件，如 一带一路、粤港澳大湾区、雄安新区、高 端制造 、人工智能、量子 科技等 相关主题并给出候选基金列表。 2）给出可调整的量化边界 "稳一点""不要太集中的行业"这些模糊表达，会被映射为： · 特定的基金类型 ; · 特定的主题分类； · 合理的区间收益 /最大回撤条件； 你可 ...

十五五规划对铜市场的机遇 20251212 摘要 中国铜资源对外依存度高，达 70%以上，易受国际政策影响。加强国内 资源整合与开发，提高再生铜利用率是关键任务，以保障国家资源安全。 电力和交通运输行业是铜需求增长的主要驱动力，十四五期间耗铜量增 幅最大，而建筑行业需求出现负增长。预计十五五期间复合年均增长率 将超过十四五期间的 1.2%。 全球铜矿资源主要分布在智利、秘鲁等地，中国精炼铜产能占全球 60% 以上，但国内铜矿产量无法满足需求，导致供应瓶颈，冶炼厂面临盈利 压力。 美金计价的铜库存持续上升，LME 和国内市场库存趋势分化，LME 注销 仓单库存增加，Comex 的虹吸效应加剧区域性紧张局势，可能导致铜 价波动。 美国精炼铜需求因产业转移和新能源政策支持再生铜而减少，但制造业 回归可能带动需求上升。美国废旧铜产能较大，部分出口至中国。 新能源汽车是用铜大户，单车用铜量为 83-105 公斤，2020-2025 年该 领域用铜量年均复合增长率为 28%。AI、数据中心、储能等新兴产业也 将显著增加铜需求。 宏观经济指标如 GDP 增长、人口增加及政策变化（如以旧换新）显著影 响铜需求。预计到 205 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Metals Industry**: The records discuss the metals industry, particularly focusing on precious metals, industrial metals, and energy metals, with insights into market trends and forecasts for 2026 [1][2][6][12][26]. Precious Metals - **Silver Price Volatility**: Silver prices have experienced significant fluctuations due to decreasing inventories and demand expectations, with a short-term pullback influenced by AI trends, but long-term trends are expected to follow gold prices [1][3]. - **Federal Reserve's Impact**: The recent 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the initiation of short-term U.S. debt purchases have enhanced liquidity expectations, driving precious metal prices upward, with silver reaching nearly $64 per ounce [2][5]. - **Long-term Support Factors**: Factors such as the Federal Reserve's asset purchases, interest rate cuts, and the U.S. strategic shift away from the dollar are expected to provide long-term support for precious metal prices [1][4][5]. Industrial Metals - **Optimistic Outlook**: The industrial metals market outlook is optimistic, with expectations of demand rebound in traditional manufacturing and real estate due to easing high-interest rates and supportive policies from China's 14th Five-Year Plan [1][6]. - **Copper Price Trends**: Copper prices reached new highs following the Fed's rate cut but faced adjustments due to concerns over AI and U.S. economic data. Future price trends will depend on economic resilience indicators [7][8]. - **Aluminum Market Dynamics**: The aluminum market is expected to remain strong due to fiscal and monetary easing, despite seasonal demand pressures. The overall demand is anticipated to be supported by storage and export activities [10][11]. Energy Metals - **Lithium Demand**: Lithium demand remains robust, driven by the economics of energy storage, with high order expectations for 2026. Supply-side disruptions continue, maintaining a tight supply-demand balance [12][15]. - **Cobalt Market Stability**: Cobalt prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, with supply concerns easing due to improved political conditions in the Democratic Republic of Congo [12][13]. Steel Industry - **Policy Changes**: The steel industry has reinstated the steel export license system to optimize export structures and limit low-value product exports, which is expected to impact the market significantly [23][24]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Despite short-term market reactions to new policies, there are long-term investment opportunities in high-end manufacturing steel companies, which are less affected by these changes [24][25]. Conclusion - **Investment Strategy**: The overall analysis indicates various investment opportunities across precious metals, industrial metals, and energy metals, emphasizing the need to monitor policy changes and market dynamics closely to adjust investment strategies accordingly [26].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has reverted to its previous state before late October, but the upward potential remains constrained. The only industry showing short-term upward movement is optical connectivity, while concerns about the decline in capital expenditure among leading US tech companies in 2026 persist, impacting the AI industry chain [2][3]. Group 1: Market Environment and Trends - Since late November, the macro environment for the A-share market has "reverted," reflecting the characteristics seen before late October. However, the upward space remains limited, with only optical connectivity showing potential for upward breakthroughs [2][3]. - The expectation for stable growth has been adjusted downward, and the anticipated return of the Federal Reserve's easing policies has led to a resurgence in optical connectivity, while other tech growth sectors are experiencing a rebound [2][3]. - The market is currently in a high-level oscillation phase, with the structural characteristics reverting to those observed before late October [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Policy Insights - The core idea of the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference is to "practice internal skills to cope with external challenges," with a focus on maintaining policy momentum in 2024 and potential marginal improvements in 2026 [5][6]. - Key policy points include addressing issues related to development and transformation, emphasizing quality and efficiency, stimulating domestic demand, and promoting technological innovation in key regions [6][7]. - The market anticipates that if economic results improve in the first half of 2026, additional efforts to stabilize growth in the second half are likely [5][7]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Investment Opportunities - The medium-term outlook remains a "two-stage bull market," with the first stage (tech structural bull) already at a high level, and the market currently in a quarterly high-level oscillation phase [7][8]. - The first half of 2026 is expected to favor cyclical and value styles, while the second half may see a comprehensive bull market driven by fundamental improvements and technological trends [7][8]. - Spring market trends are expected to focus on small-scale opportunities, particularly in optical connectivity and other tech sectors, with potential for new high-level oscillation phases [8].

范波指出，"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期。要始终把学 习贯彻习近平总书记对江苏、苏州工作重要讲话重要指示精神作为贯穿全部工作的主线，在江苏推进中 国式现代化走在前、做示范中勇挑大梁。恳请各位专家一如既往关心支持苏州，帮助我们总结提炼实践 经验、改进提高各项工作，推动更多优质项目、优秀人才落地苏州，更好服务全国全省发展大局。 市领导顾海东、王飏，市政府秘书长徐本参加。 范波、吴庆文认真听取发言，对各位专家给予苏州发展的关心支持表示感谢。范波说，各位专家发 挥自身所长，结合苏州实际，提出的意见建议站位高、思考深、视野宽、对策实，帮助我们更加深刻领 会了习近平总书记重要讲话精神的丰富内涵，更加深刻认识苏州肩负的使命担当，更加深刻认清当前面 临的形势挑战、问题短板，进一步拓宽了思路视野，坚定了推动高质量发展的信心决心。我们将认真研 究吸收，转化为推动高质量发展的具体举措。 12月13日，市委书记范波主持召开"十五五"规划专家咨询会，征求各领域专家对市委"十五五"规划 《建议》的意见。市委副书记、市长吴庆文出席。 会上，国家"十五五"规划专家组成员、中国国际经济交流中心首席研究员张燕 ...

Economic Growth Forecasts - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised China's GDP growth forecast for 2025 by 0.2 percentage points to 5%, attributing this adjustment to macroeconomic policy measures [2] - The World Bank increased its 2025 growth prediction for China by 0.4 percentage points to 4.9%, citing supportive fiscal and monetary policies as well as diversified export markets [2] - Goldman Sachs revised its GDP growth forecast for China in 2025 from 4.9% to 5.0% and also raised projections for 2026 and 2027 [3] - Deutsche Bank adjusted its 2025 economic growth forecast for China to 5.0% [4] - Standard Chartered Bank increased its 2026 GDP growth forecast for China from 4.3% to 4.6% [5] Resilience and Structural Changes - China's economic resilience is recognized, with significant contributions from technology innovation and integration of tech policies with industrial development [5] - The Chinese economy is expected to rely more on domestic demand in the coming years, supported by structural reforms in the social security system [2][6] - There is a notable increase in overseas investment interest in Chinese assets, with institutional investors and retail investors showing signs of increased market participation [7] Investment Opportunities - The Asian markets, including China, are expected to provide attractive diversification and rebalancing investment opportunities in 2026, supported by policy benefits and improving fundamentals [8] - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to focus on high-quality growth and a shift towards a consumption-driven economic model [9] - The financial system in China, particularly non-bank financial institutions, is expected to play a larger role in promoting consumer spending [9] Future Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is projected to maintain steady growth, with internal demand expected to increase further and external demand remaining robust due to a stable US economy and AI investments [10] - Key areas for infrastructure investment are expected to include underground utilities, green transition projects, and AI computing centers [10]

记者12月13日从全国发展和改革工作会议上获悉，明年国家发展改革委将充分发挥"两重"建设、新增地 方政府专项债券等各类政府投资资金作用，适当增加中央预算内投资规模，继续发挥新型政策性金融工 具作用，多措并举促进投资止跌回稳。 三是提振消费要出实招出新招。优化实施消费品以旧换新政策，积极扩大服务消费，加快清理消费领域 不合理限制性措施，推动消费供给提质升级。 四是综合整治"内卷式"竞争和培育发展新动能。完善重点行业产能治理和重大基础设施调控，大力培育 壮大新兴产业和未来产业，培育壮大若干新兴支柱产业，深化拓展"人工智能+"行动，补齐科技服务业 短板，完善低空经济产业生态，深入推进数字经济高质量发展。 五是进一步全面深化改革。研究制定全国统一大市场建设条例，协同推进"准入、场景、要素"一体化改 革。持续抓好招商引资、招标投标等方面重点问题整治，坚决破除各类壁垒障碍。更大力度发展民营经 济，大力推动民营经济促进法配套制度建设。 六是深入扩大高水平对外开放。稳步扩大制度型开放，统筹做好"引进来"和"走出去"，推动共建"一带 一路"高质量发展。 七是以双碳为引领加快推进全面绿色转型。稳步实施碳排放总量和强度双控制度，完 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Economic Work Conference in Beijing has set the direction for China's economy, aiming to provide stability and opportunities for the global economy amidst uncertainties [1][2]. Economic Outlook - The conference highlighted that the main economic and social development goals for 2025 will be successfully completed, marking a strong start for the new "15th Five-Year Plan" [2]. - International organizations have raised China's economic growth forecasts for 2025 by 0.4, 0.2, 0.1, and 0.1 percentage points respectively, reflecting growing confidence in China's economic resilience [3]. Policy Focus - The conference emphasized the need to fully tap into economic potential, combining policy support with reform and innovation, and focusing on both material and human investment [3]. - Key tasks for the upcoming year include innovation-driven development, expanding domestic demand, and enhancing the quality of life for citizens [4][9]. New Growth Drivers - The conference underscored the importance of innovation and the establishment of international technology innovation centers in major regions like Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area [7]. - A strong domestic market is identified as a strategic foundation for modernization, with specific actions to boost consumption and stabilize investment [9]. Global Cooperation - The launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port is a significant step towards high-level opening up and promoting an open world economy [10]. - The conference outlined eight key tasks for the next year, with a strong emphasis on expanding international cooperation and optimizing free trade zones [10][11]. Market Potential - China's expanding market access in various sectors, including finance, automotive, and digital services, is creating a more predictable and transparent environment for foreign investment [11]. - The growth of e-commerce and logistics in China is facilitating easier access for international products, enhancing opportunities for global businesses [11][12].

记者12月13日从全国发展和改革工作会议上获悉，明年国家发展改革委将充分发挥"两重"建设、新增地 方政府专项债券等各类政府投资资金作用，适当增加中央预算内投资规模，继续发挥新型政策性金融工 具作用，多措并举促进投资止跌回稳。 会议明确，发展改革系统要准确把握明年经济工作的总体要求，结合职能扎扎实实做好明年发展改革重 点工作。一是编制实施好"十五五"规划。深入领会党中央战略意图，坚持因地制宜，提高规划质量，加 强规划内容审核衔接，把党的二十届四中全会《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规 划的建议》确定的各项决策部署和工作要求落到实处。同时，加强经济监测预警分析，完善政策工具 箱，加强预期管理，做好今明两年政策衔接、工作衔接，推动政策靠前发力，实现良好开局。 六是深入扩大高水平对外开放。稳步扩大制度型开放，统筹做好"引进来"和"走出去"，推动共建"一带 一路"高质量发展。 七是以双碳为引领加快推进全面绿色转型。稳步实施碳排放总量和强度双控制度，完善配套制度，强化 评价考核，严控新增"两高"项目。 八是更大力度保障就业和改善民生。多渠道促进就业增收，提升公共服务水平，保障民生商品量足价 稳，切实增进民 ...

12月12日至13日，全国发展和改革工作会议在北京召开。会议总结2025年发展改革工作，研究部署2026 年发展改革重点任务。 会议指出，今年是很不平凡的一年，我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，实现质的有效提升和量的合理 增长，年度和"十四五"规划目标任务即将顺利完成。会议强调，发展改革系统要深刻领会习近平总书记 在中央经济工作会议上提出"五个必须"的重要内涵，准确把握明年经济工作的总体要求，结合职能扎扎 实实做好明年发展改革重点工作。 从此次部署的2026年发展改革九项重点任务来看，编制实施好"十五五"规划被置于首位。会议强调，要 深入领会党中央战略意图，坚持因地制宜，提高规划质量，加强规划内容审核衔接，把《中共中央关于 制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》确定的各项决策部署和工作要求落到实处。同时， 加强经济监测预警分析，完善政策工具箱，加强预期管理，做好今明两年政策衔接、工作衔接，推动政 策靠前发力，实现良好开局。 在扩内需方面，会议提出，"多措并举促进投资止跌回稳""提振消费要出实招出新招"。 在投资方面，会议强调，明年发展改革系统要充分发挥"两重"建设、新增地方政府专项债券等各类政府 投资资 ...