---2026 年燃料油、低硫燃料油期货行情展望 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 2025 年 12 月 18 日 估值已被重塑，静待明确驱动 报告导读： 货 研 究 所 我们的观点：经过一整年供需格局的演变之后，亚太的燃料油、低硫燃料油估值已经被完全重塑，目前处在历史低位，但结 合供需格局的现状来看，当下估值水平基本符合供需的现状。展望 2026 年，在估值完全重塑、供需重回紧平衡的前提下， 季节性以及突发事件形成的冲击将是未来行情的驱动。 我们的逻辑：制裁与地缘冲突导致俄罗斯的供应逐步下降，2026 年拉美的供应也有可能因为炼厂投产发生变化，中东地区 作为全球高硫组分供应的核心地区，其重要性将继续增强。而在需求端，船燃和发电仍然能够为高硫的估值提供支撑，只是 炼化端存在一定拖累。低硫方面，其消费情况从 2025 年的一些数据来看，可能已经处于近些年的底部，这意味着 2026 年需 求端的拖累作用可能逐步减弱。而在供应方面，巴西、印尼等弹性较低的地区依然占据主导地位，除此之外另一部分占据主 导地位的地区弹性则较大，这两部分地区的供应变化都会在短期内引发 ...

证券日报网讯12月18日，新亚电子（605277）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司主营业务为消费 电子及工业控制线材、汽车线缆、通信线缆及数据线材、新能源系列线缆及组件等，应用领域涵盖智能 家用电器、计算机、智能办公、工控设备、机器人、医疗设备、通信基站、数据中心、AI服务器、新 能源光伏、储能、汽车等行业，暂无涉及航空航天领域。 ...

分品种来看，金属板块的整体强势进一步延续。尽管多晶硅、碳酸锂有所降温，但基本金属日内全线走高，兼具贵金属和工业金属属性的银、 铂、钯强势不减。同时，国际油价低位反弹带动能化板块情绪回暖，加上煤炭市场利多消息影响下焦煤大幅反弹，工业品日内几乎普涨。相比 之下，农产品板块持续弱势，一二号黄大豆、生猪等收盘再跌超1%。玉米、鸡蛋、白糖等也均不同程度下跌。 多晶硅冲高回落 集运欧线承压跌超3% 虽然铂钯继续强势冲高，但多晶硅市场18日却出现降温。尽管17日夜盘时段多晶硅仍惯性冲高并尝试再度挑战62000元／吨关口，但多重因素 综合作用下，期价关口遇阻明显，18日午盘时段更是减仓回落，终盘收跌2.6%。尽管近期无论是"反内卷"预期的强化，还是国家能源局表态 2026年持续提高新能源供给比重，都对多晶硅供需前景构成利好。但眼下多晶硅市场高库存和弱需求基本面未改也是事实，弱现实与强预期的 博弈强烈，加上交易所隔夜提示市场风险引发市场对监管动作的担忧，均加大了短期多晶硅市场降温的压力。在此背景下，多晶硅盘面上多头 获利了结的迹象明显。行情数据显示，随着18日午盘期价震荡回落，多晶硅主力合约持仓显著下降，截至收盘当日净减仓超1 ...

化工板块今日（12月18日）冲高回落。反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）开盘后迅速拉升， 盘中场内价格涨幅一度达到1.74%，随后持续走弱，截至收盘，跌0.37%。 成份股方面，锂电、氟化工、钾肥等板块部分个股跌幅居前。截至收盘，多氟多、恩捷股份、天赐材料 跌超4%，亚钾国际、彤程新材、新宙邦等跌超2%，拖累板块走势。 | | | 分制 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 · | | | | | F9 盘前盘后 盛加 九转 画线 工具 (2 > | | 4. TETF O | | 516020 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.81 | | | | | 516020[化工ETF] 13:50 价 0.804 精颜 0.001(0.12%) 均价 0.807 成交量 4.76万 | | | | 0.800 | | -0.003 -0.37% | | | | | | | | | | | SSE CNY 15:00:18 IZPD | | H / 8 H | | 0.810 | ...

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Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the advancements and innovations in the cylindrical battery industry, highlighting the transition to large-scale production and the competitive advantages of Chinese companies in the lithium battery supply chain [1][6]. Group 1: Industry Events and Trends - The 2025 (10th) Lithium Battery Industry Annual Conference and the Lithium Golden Tripod Award Ceremony were held in Shenzhen, focusing on core topics such as battery technology, materials, and equipment [1]. - The cylindrical battery has entered a phase of large-scale production, with applications expanding beyond traditional sectors to include light-duty power, engineering machinery, electric ships, and humanoid robots [4][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The market has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven dynamics, which is seen as beneficial for industry development, bringing more vitality and advantages to end-users [4]. - Data indicates that cylindrical batteries are experiencing a long-term stable growth trend after overcoming a period of technological uncertainty [4]. Group 3: Technological Innovations - The company has been involved in the innovation of equipment and processes for cylindrical battery production since 2009, achieving breakthroughs in key processes such as full-tab ear forming and current collector welding [5]. - China has established a leading position in patent layouts across various advanced technology fields related to electric vehicles (EVs), solid-state batteries, and smart manufacturing, surpassing the US and Europe [5]. Group 4: Product Solutions and Customization - The company offers a range of solutions for cylindrical batteries, including different production line types such as linear, flexible turret, and magnetic levitation lines, catering to various production needs [9][10][11]. - The solutions are customized based on client requirements, covering different sizes and structures of cylindrical batteries, including full-tab ear designs that enhance performance and safety [7][8]. Group 5: Operational Efficiency and Sustainability - Innovations in production lines have led to a 16% reduction in overall footprint and a 30% decrease in the number of personnel required for line inspections, enhancing operational efficiency [14]. - The new generation of production lines has achieved a 20% reduction in energy consumption, supporting the transition to green factories and sustainable development [15]. Group 6: Research and Development Initiatives - The company has established a collaborative innovation platform to support continuous innovation in technology, processes, and equipment, involving upstream suppliers and downstream customers [17]. - The engineering technology research institute has invested in over 200 sets of equipment and has undertaken nearly 200 innovation projects, focusing on the development and testing of new products [18][21].

Core Insights - Deloitte's report indicates a steady growth in the number of IPOs and financing amounts in the A-share market for 2026, with an expected 114 companies going public and raising 129.6 billion yuan [1] - The Hong Kong IPO market is projected to see around 160 new listings in 2026, with total financing expected to exceed 300 billion HKD [2] A-Share Market Summary - In 2025, the A-share market is expected to have 114 new listings, raising a total of 129.6 billion yuan, which represents a 14% increase in the number of IPOs and a 94% increase in financing compared to 2024 [1] - The top five IPOs in 2025 are projected to raise a total of 39.4 billion yuan, a significant increase of 260% from the previous year's 10.9 billion yuan [1] - Companies in priority sectors such as AI, new energy, high-end manufacturing, commercial aerospace, quantum technology, and biomanufacturing are expected to have a competitive advantage in the A-share market [1] Hong Kong Market Summary - For 2025, Hong Kong is anticipated to have 114 new IPOs, raising approximately 286.3 billion HKD, marking a 63% increase in the number of IPOs and a 227% increase in financing compared to the previous year [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is expected to lead global exchanges in total IPO financing for 2025 [1] - In 2026, the Hong Kong market is projected to have around 160 new listings, with at least 7 of them expected to raise over 10 billion HKD each, including leading mainland enterprises [2] - The focus will also be on "A+H" stock applicants, as well as sectors like technology, media, telecommunications, healthcare, consumer goods, and international companies [2]

（编辑 楚丽君） 证券日报网讯 12月18日，振华股份在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司通过铬盐到金属铬的产业 链优势，金属铬的下游特种钢材，在数据中心电源、电网设备和储能领域均有明确应用。公司将继续深 化铬系材料在新能源领域的应用，推动铁铬液流储能技术的商业化推广，为新型电力系统建设贡献力 量。 ...

（编辑 任世碧） 证券日报网讯 12月18日，振华股份在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司2024年度铬盐总产量26万 吨，金属铬等高端产品需求情况良好，公司具备三氯化铬电解液批量供货能力。公司正积极探索新能源 领域应用。 ...

人民财讯12月18日电，银星能源（000862）12月18日公告，拟以2015.275万元现金收购汉能阳光新能源 控股(北京)有限公司持有的宁夏天净神州风力发电有限公司(以下简称天净神州)50%股权，收购完成 后，天净神州将成为公司全资子公司。目前天净神州正在推动老旧风机"以大代小"更新改造工作，本次 交易完成后，有助于扩大公司新能源装机规模，增强公司盈利能力。 ...