Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is actively engaging in trade negotiations with the United States, with Vice Premier He Lifeng leading a delegation to Malaysia for discussions from October 24 to 27 [1] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Malaysia for new rounds of trade negotiations with the U.S. [1] - The discussions will focus on important issues in the China-U.S. trade relationship, following key consensus reached in previous communications between the leaders of both countries this year [1]

Core Points - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced that Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Malaysia for economic and trade consultations with the U.S. from October 24 to 27 [1] - The discussions will focus on important issues in the China-U.S. economic and trade relationship, following key consensus reached in previous communications between the leaders of both countries this year [1] Summary by Categories - **Economic and Trade Relations** - The upcoming consultations aim to address significant issues in the China-U.S. economic and trade relationship [1] - The meetings are a continuation of the dialogue established through previous high-level communications between the two nations' leaders [1] - **Delegation Details** - The delegation will be led by He Lifeng, a member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China [1] - The consultations are scheduled to take place in Malaysia [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the upcoming round of Sino-U.S. economic and trade consultations scheduled for October 24-27, led by Vice Premier He Lifeng in Malaysia [1] - The consultations will address important issues in Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations, following the consensus reached in previous communications between the leaders of both countries this year [1]

Group 1 - PTA prices have been declining since September, falling below 4400 yuan/ton due to decreasing crude oil prices and strong inventory accumulation expectations [1] - The geopolitical situation, including unresolved issues between Russia and Ukraine, continues to provide support for crude oil prices, which may lead to a rebound after significant declines [2] - The PTA industry is currently experiencing low processing fees, with a spot processing fee of 122 yuan/ton as of October 21, indicating a loss situation [3] Group 2 - There are signs of improvement in domestic demand as the winter clothing business enters a peak season, with strong demand for knitted and plush products [4] - Polyester production and sales are gradually increasing, with the processing fees for most polyester products improving significantly, while the inventory pressure remains manageable [4] - If new rounds of Sino-US trade negotiations yield positive signals, it could lead to strong external demand replenishment [4] Group 3 - Overall analysis suggests that PTA prices are likely to find a bottom in the short term due to the support from crude oil price recovery, limited supply growth, and improving domestic demand [5] - The combination of these factors is expected to support a strengthening of PTA prices and a recovery in processing fees [5]

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 22 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：国债期货10月21日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2512 | 115.410 | 115.240 | 115.590 | 115.490 | 0.180 | 0.16 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of Trump's planned visit to China in early next year comes amid escalating tensions in the US-China "rare earth war," with skepticism about the sincerity of this gesture and its potential impact on trade negotiations [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations - Trump believes that the upcoming economic talks could yield positive results and lead to a trade agreement for mutual prosperity [3]. - The US has a history of making bold claims regarding negotiations, often attempting to take the initiative in discussions with China [3][5]. - The trade war, initiated during Trump's first term, has led to significant economic strain, with the US eventually seeking to negotiate peace after facing challenges [5]. Group 2: US-China Relations - Trump's approach has been aggressive, using tariffs and sanctions against China while showing little genuine willingness to negotiate [5][7]. - The recent introduction of new regulations on rare earth exports has put pressure on the US, prompting Trump to threaten 100% tariffs while attempting to morally coerce China [7]. - The Chinese response has been to counter any provocations, indicating a shift towards immediate retaliation rather than delayed responses [5][9]. Group 3: Key Demands and Expectations - In the new round of negotiations, Trump has outlined three main demands: soybeans, rare earths, and fentanyl, with the latter being outside China's control [7]. - There is skepticism regarding Trump's ability to make significant concessions, as it would undermine his position and image [7][9]. - The effectiveness of any negotiations will depend on the sincerity of the US side, rather than Trump's personal influence or presence [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - The steel price is operating at a low level and faces short - term downward pressure [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Steel Production Data - In September 2025, China's crude steel production was 73.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%; pig iron production was 66.05 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%; steel production was 124.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. From January to September, China's crude steel production was 746.25 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%; pig iron production was 645.86 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%; steel production was 1.10385 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% [2] Real Estate Data - From January to September, the national real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%; residential investment was 520.46 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.9%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%; residential construction area was 4.52165 billion square meters, a decrease of 9.7%. The new construction area was 453.99 million square meters, a decrease of 18.9%; residential new construction area was 332.73 million square meters, a decrease of 18.3%. The completed area was 311.29 million square meters, a decrease of 15.3%; residential completed area was 222.28 million square meters, a decrease of 17.1% [2] Market Performance and Influencing Factors - The finished steel price rose first and then fell. After rising on Friday night and Monday morning, it gradually declined and gave back most of the day's gains at the close. The overall macro - economic data released today was weak, especially the limited improvement in the real estate sector. Overseas trade frictions also had a negative impact on China's steel exports. Attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade consultations and domestic important meetings [2] Later Concerns - Macro policies and downstream demand conditions should be concerned [3]

Group 1 - U.S. stock indices rose over 1%, with Apple reaching a historical high, and the Chinese concept index increasing by 2.39% [1] - Semiconductor company SMIC saw a reduction in southbound capital for eight consecutive days, totaling 9.4 billion HKD [1] - CATL reported a net profit of 18.549 billion CNY for Q3, representing a year-on-year growth of 41.21% [1][2] - Junsheng Electronics' subsidiary secured a new automotive smart electrification project, with an estimated total order value of approximately 5 billion CNY [2] Group 2 - The unemployment rate in Hong Kong rose to 3.9%, with 155,600 individuals unemployed [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government maintains a consistent and clear stance on handling Sino-U.S. economic and trade issues, emphasizing that a trade war does not benefit either side and that negotiations should be based on equality, respect, and mutual benefit [1]. Group 1 - The upcoming round of Sino-U.S. economic and trade consultations is highlighted, with specific issues raised by the U.S. including rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans [1]. - The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson reiterated that the trade war is not in the interest of either party, advocating for a collaborative approach to resolve issues [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government maintains a consistent and clear stance on handling Sino-U.S. economic and trade issues, emphasizing that a trade war does not benefit either side and that negotiations should be based on equality, respect, and mutual benefit [1]. Group 1 - The upcoming round of Sino-U.S. economic and trade consultations is highlighted, with specific issues raised by the U.S. including rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans [1]. - The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson reiterated that the trade war is not in the interest of either party, advocating for a collaborative approach to resolve issues [1].