Core Viewpoint - The announcement of Trump's planned visit to China in early next year comes amid escalating tensions in the US-China "rare earth war," with skepticism about the sincerity of this gesture and its potential impact on trade negotiations [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations - Trump believes that the upcoming economic talks could yield positive results and lead to a trade agreement for mutual prosperity [3]. - The US has a history of making bold claims regarding negotiations, often attempting to take the initiative in discussions with China [3][5]. - The trade war, initiated during Trump's first term, has led to significant economic strain, with the US eventually seeking to negotiate peace after facing challenges [5]. Group 2: US-China Relations - Trump's approach has been aggressive, using tariffs and sanctions against China while showing little genuine willingness to negotiate [5][7]. - The recent introduction of new regulations on rare earth exports has put pressure on the US, prompting Trump to threaten 100% tariffs while attempting to morally coerce China [7]. - The Chinese response has been to counter any provocations, indicating a shift towards immediate retaliation rather than delayed responses [5][9]. Group 3: Key Demands and Expectations - In the new round of negotiations, Trump has outlined three main demands: soybeans, rare earths, and fentanyl, with the latter being outside China's control [7]. - There is skepticism regarding Trump's ability to make significant concessions, as it would undermine his position and image [7][9]. - The effectiveness of any negotiations will depend on the sincerity of the US side, rather than Trump's personal influence or presence [9].

晨报 成材 成材：月度宏观数据偏弱 钢价弱势运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 成文时间： 2025 年 10 月 21 日 成材：月度宏观数据偏弱 钢价弱势运行 逻辑：国家统计局数据显示：2025 年 9 月，中国粗钢产量 7349 万吨， 同比下降 4.6%；生铁产量 6605 万吨，同比下降 2.4%；钢材产量 12421 万吨，同比增长 5.1%。1-9 月，中国粗钢产量 74625 万吨，同比下降 2.9%； 生铁产量 64586 万吨，同比下降 1.1%；钢材产量 110385 万吨，同比增长 5.4%。1-9 月份，全国房地产开发投资 67706 亿元，同比下降 13.9%；其 中，住宅投资 52046 亿元，下降 12.9%。1-9 月份，房地产开发企业房屋 施工面积 648580 万平方米，同比下降 9.4%。其中，住宅施工面积 452165 万平方 ...

Group 1 - U.S. stock indices rose over 1%, with Apple reaching a historical high, and the Chinese concept index increasing by 2.39% [1] - Semiconductor company SMIC saw a reduction in southbound capital for eight consecutive days, totaling 9.4 billion HKD [1] - CATL reported a net profit of 18.549 billion CNY for Q3, representing a year-on-year growth of 41.21% [1][2] - Junsheng Electronics' subsidiary secured a new automotive smart electrification project, with an estimated total order value of approximately 5 billion CNY [2] Group 2 - The unemployment rate in Hong Kong rose to 3.9%, with 155,600 individuals unemployed [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government maintains a consistent and clear stance on handling Sino-U.S. economic and trade issues, emphasizing that a trade war does not benefit either side and that negotiations should be based on equality, respect, and mutual benefit [1]. Group 1 - The upcoming round of Sino-U.S. economic and trade consultations is highlighted, with specific issues raised by the U.S. including rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans [1]. - The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson reiterated that the trade war is not in the interest of either party, advocating for a collaborative approach to resolve issues [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government maintains a consistent and clear stance on handling Sino-U.S. economic and trade issues, emphasizing that a trade war does not benefit either side and that negotiations should be based on equality, respect, and mutual benefit [1]. Group 1 - The upcoming round of Sino-U.S. economic and trade consultations is highlighted, with specific issues raised by the U.S. including rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans [1]. - The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson reiterated that the trade war is not in the interest of either party, advocating for a collaborative approach to resolve issues [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is running at a low level, with short - term downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will be held from October 20th to 23rd in Beijing, mainly to study the suggestions for formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and analyze the current economic situation and deploy the economic work for the second half of the year [2] - On October 18th, He Lifeng held a video call with the US Treasury Secretary and Trade Representative, and both sides agreed to hold a new round of China - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [2] Production Data - Last week, 13 provincial steel mills had production line maintenance and resumption. There were 3 maintenance lines, a decrease of 6 compared with the previous week, and 8 resumption lines, an increase of 1 compared with the previous week. The production affected by maintenance was 215,300 tons last week and is expected to be 63,800 tons this week [2] - The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills last week was 90.33%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 2.34 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average hot metal output was 2.4095 million tons, a decrease of 5,900 tons from the previous week and an increase of 65,900 tons year - on - year [2] - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide last week was 53.2%, an increase of 2.13 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 1.32 percentage points year - on - year. The average operating rate was 68.85%, an increase of 1.79 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 0.73 percentage points year - on - year [2] Price and Market Analysis - The finished steel prices fluctuated and declined last week, hitting new lows. Rebar was close to 3,000, and hot - rolled coil once fell below 3,200. After the holiday, the fundamentals of steel changed little, and the weak downstream situation improved limitedly. The weekly fundamentals were neutral to weak. Sino - US trade frictions affected market sentiment and caused the steel price to decline. Attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade consultations and domestic important meetings [2]

Group 1 - Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on imported medium and heavy trucks, indicating a shift in trade policy [12] - The U.S. and China agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations soon, reflecting ongoing trade discussions [14] - The U.S. Treasury Department purchased Argentine pesos at an unofficial exchange rate, highlighting currency market interventions [12] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index closed down 2.48%, with significant declines in chip stocks, Apple-related stocks, and electric equipment stocks [3] - The A-share market saw all three major indices decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.95% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 3.04% [4] - The market experienced a broad sell-off, with over 4,700 stocks declining, while certain sectors like precious metals and gas saw gains [4] Group 3 - Gold prices hit a historical high of $4,379 per ounce before dropping nearly $130, closing at $4,250.93 per ounce, while silver also saw significant fluctuations [2][7] - WTI crude oil rose by 0.65% to $57.24 per barrel, and Brent crude oil increased by 0.69% to $61.26 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical developments [2][7] - Major U.S. stock indices, including the Dow Jones and S&P 500, recorded gains, with the Dow up 0.52% and the S&P 500 up 0.53% [2][7]

Group 1 - The Chinese side maintains an open attitude towards equal consultations based on mutual respect in trade talks with the U.S. [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Bessent, has indicated that the proposed 100% tariffs on China may not be implemented, reflecting a shift in the U.S. stance amid ongoing trade negotiations [5][8][12] Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - Bessent's comments suggest a more optimistic outlook on U.S.-China relations, emphasizing that communication channels have reopened and new working-level meetings are scheduled [8][9] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has confirmed ongoing negotiations, indicating a willingness to maintain dialogue despite tensions [9][17] - Bessent's remarks are seen as an attempt to calm U.S. financial markets, which have been volatile due to fears of a renewed trade war [12][14] Group 2: Historical Context and Strategic Implications - Bessent pointed out that the U.S. has historically neglected strategic issues like rare earth elements, which China now leverages in negotiations [10][18] - The U.S. administration's aggressive rhetoric towards China is viewed as counterproductive, potentially leading to further complications in negotiations [16][17] - China's control over rare earth resources is not merely a bargaining chip but a reflection of its established dominance in the supply chain, which poses a significant challenge to U.S. interests [18][19] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following Bessent's statements, U.S. stock markets experienced a rebound, indicating that investor sentiment may be improving amid the uncertainty [14] - However, if substantial progress is not made in the upcoming negotiations, the positive market sentiment may not be sustainable [15] - The ongoing trade tensions highlight the complexities of U.S.-China relations, with both sides needing to reassess their strategies to achieve a mutually beneficial outcome [19]

Group 1 - The Chinese government emphasizes that its export control measures on rare earths are legitimate actions based on laws and regulations, aimed at enhancing its export control system [1] - China asserts that its export controls are not prohibitive and that applications meeting regulations will continue to be approved, aiming to maintain global supply chain stability [1] - The Chinese side criticizes the U.S. for its long-term misuse of national security to impose discriminatory measures against China, which has severely harmed China's interests and disrupted the atmosphere for economic talks [1] Group 2 - China maintains a consistent stance on the trade war, indicating readiness to engage in both confrontation and dialogue, highlighting the mutual benefits of cooperation [2] - The Chinese government stresses that past economic negotiations have shown that solutions can be found through mutual respect and equal consultation [2] - China urges the U.S. to correct its erroneous practices and demonstrate sincerity in negotiations, advocating for dialogue to manage differences and promote healthy, stable, and sustainable development of Sino-U.S. economic relations [2]