Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral for polysilicon; short-term range operation for polysilicon in the strategy [5][7] - Inter-temporal: None [5][7][8] - Inter-commodity: None [5][7][8] - Spot-futures: None [5][7][8] - Options: None [5][7][8] Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the short-term supply and demand have marginally improved, but there are issues of overcapacity and high inventory pressure, and the supply side is still expected to increase. The industrial silicon futures market fluctuates with the overall commodity sentiment [2] - For polysilicon, the downstream production scheduling of the photovoltaic industry increased slightly in September. Self-discipline production cuts by polysilicon producers led to a slight reduction in supply, and the oversupply situation improved. The market is greatly affected by anti-involution policies, and the policy is still being promoted, causing large market fluctuations. In the medium to long term, it is suitable to build long positions on dips [7] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On September 2, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was strong. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,480 yuan/ton and closed at 8,470 yuan/ton, up 1.13% (95 yuan/ton) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 281,480 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,029 lots, down 371 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon was stable. The price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon was 9,000 - 9,200 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygenated 553 silicon was 8,400 - 8,600 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,400 - 8,600 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai regions increased slightly, and the price of 97 silicon also rose slightly [1] - The consumption of industrial silicon is expected to remain stable. The price of silicone DMC was 10,500 - 10,900 yuan/ton. Silicone enterprises face increased cost pressure, and the peak-season restocking of end consumers is average [1] Polysilicon - On September 2, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 oscillated strongly, opening at 52,360 yuan/ton and closing at 51,875 yuan/ton, up 3.97% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 145,855 lots (150,409 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 530,778 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The price of N-type material was 49.00 - 54.00 yuan/kg, and N-type granular silicon was 48.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon producers and silicon wafers decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 21.30 (a month-on-month decrease of 14.29%), and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.05GW (a month-on-month increase of 3.68%). The weekly polysilicon production was 31,000 tons (a month-on-month increase of 6.53%), and the silicon wafer production was 13.31GW (a month-on-month increase of 8.30%) [4] - In September, most domestic silicon wafer enterprises increased their production scheduling plans, and the overall output showed an upward trend compared to August [4] - In September, the global battery production scheduling was about 60GW (a month-on-month increase of 2.3% compared to 59GW in August), and the domestic production scheduling was about 59GW (a month-on-month increase of 2.3% compared to 58GW in August) [6] - The mainstream transaction prices of components remained stable. The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N-type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W, and N-type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [6] Strategy Industrial Silicon - The spot price fluctuates slightly. The short-term supply and demand have marginally improved, but due to overcapacity and high inventory pressure, and the supply side is still expected to increase. The industrial silicon futures market fluctuates with the overall commodity sentiment [2] Polysilicon - In September, the downstream production scheduling of the photovoltaic industry increased slightly. Self-discipline production cuts by polysilicon producers led to a slight reduction in supply, and the oversupply situation improved. The market is greatly affected by anti-involution policies, and the policy is still being promoted, causing large market fluctuations. Participants need to pay attention to risk management, continuously follow up on policy implementation and the downward transmission of spot prices. In the medium to long term, it is suitable to build long positions on dips [7]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium iron phosphate (LFP) industry is experiencing a significant imbalance between supply and demand, leading to low capacity utilization and ongoing losses for most companies, despite some firms pushing for rapid expansion due to future market potential [2][5]. Group 1: Current Industry Status - As of June 2025, global LFP production capacity reached 6.172 million tons, with a production of 1.632 million tons in the first half of 2025, resulting in a capacity utilization rate of only 52.8% [2]. - Most LFP companies are struggling with losses, with only Hunan Youneng and Fulimeng Shenhua reporting profits [2]. Group 2: Reasons for Expansion - Despite overall overcapacity, there is significant disparity in capacity utilization among companies, with leading firms like Hunan Youneng achieving a utilization rate of 116.82%, while some smaller firms have nearly inactive production lines [2][3]. - The industry is still in a high-growth phase, with strong market potential prompting some companies to expand capacity despite short-term losses, focusing on future market opportunities [3]. - Smaller companies with limited capacity must expand to attract new customers, as their current production cannot meet broader market demands [3]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - High capital investment serves as a barrier to entry, which may eliminate weaker firms and allow leading companies to leverage their capacity advantages for better pricing power [4]. - In a competitive environment, some companies are expanding to enhance their integrated supply chain, which can stabilize supply and reduce costs [4]. - New production lines are primarily focused on higher-end products rather than merely replicating low-end products, indicating a shift towards eliminating outdated capacity and concentrating resources on more efficient and competitive segments [4]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The influx of strong new entrants with latecomer advantages is accelerating the industry's reshuffling, raising questions about whether current leading companies can maintain their positions [5].

来源：新浪财经 日前，晶科能源披露的2025年半年度报告显示，公司上半年实现营业收入318.31亿元，同比减少 32.63%；归母净利润为-29.09亿元，较去年同期12亿元的净利润，大幅转亏。 这份成绩单在光伏行业并非个例。2025年上半年，多家光伏企业陷入亏损或亏损扩大，包括隆基绿能亏 损25.69亿元、天合光能亏损29.18亿元、晶澳科技亏损25.80亿元和通威股份亏损49.55亿元等行业巨头。 晶科能源的盈利指标全面恶化，上半年毛利率为-2%，同比下降10.6个百分点，罕见跌入负值，归母净 利率为-9.1%，同比下降11.7个百分点。 细分来看，第二季度单季营收179.9亿元，同比减少25.6%，环比增长29.9%；但归母净利润仍亏损15.2 亿元，同比暴跌6336.8%。 不过，并非所有光伏企业都陷入困境。2025年上半年，阳光电源净利润77.35亿元，同比增长56%；正 泰电器净利润25.54亿元，同比增长33%；横店东磁净利润10.2亿元，同比增长59%。 这些企业能够逆势增长，主要得益于多元化业务布局或技术方面的优势。相比之下，单纯依靠组件销售 的企业则普遍陷入困境。 截至2025年第二季度， ...

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-9-2 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，8月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.4%，比上月上升0.1个百分 点，7 月出口 3217.8 亿美元，同比增 7.2%。8月20日，彭博社报道，针对石化与炼油行业的全 面改革方案正在酝酿，拟解决长期产能过剩，预计9月出台。供需端，农膜企业开工小幅回升， 整体需求仍较往年偏弱，其余包装膜等受旺季临近影响需求增加。当前LL交割品现货价7250（- 20），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差-20，升贴水比例-0.3%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存48.7万吨（-7.8），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is facing dual pressures of overcapacity and declining prices, impacting the overall operations of manufacturing enterprises like Haitai New Energy [1][2] Group 1: Company Performance - Haitai New Energy achieved a revenue of 1.145 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with the second quarter contributing 705 million yuan, representing a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 60.23% from 440 million yuan in the first quarter [1] - Despite the revenue growth, the company is affected by the industry's supply surplus and chaotic price competition, leading to losses despite increased production [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The global photovoltaic installed capacity continues to grow steadily, with domestic new installations reaching 212.21 GW in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 107% [1] - A "rush to install" occurred in May 2025, with new installations hitting a record high of 92.92 GW, a year-on-year increase of 388.03% [1] - Following the end of the policy transition period, a decline in installation volume is expected [1] Group 3: Industry Response and Future Outlook - National regulatory bodies have initiated comprehensive measures to combat internal competition, encouraging companies to implement capacity integration and price self-discipline [2] - Haitai New Energy plans to strengthen domestic market channels, enhance brand awareness, and expand into emerging international markets [2] - The company aims to diversify its business by developing new profit growth points in areas such as brackets, energy storage, and power station operation and maintenance [2] - A commitment to innovation and increased R&D investment is emphasized to enhance independent innovation capabilities [2]

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: September 1, 2025 - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are neutral, with expected oscillatory trends for both today [4][8] - The main influencing factors include cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies, while major risk points are significant crude oil fluctuations and international policy games [7][10] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from last month. In July, exports were $321.78 billion, a 7.2% year - on - year increase. A reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is being planned. The demand for agricultural films has slightly recovered but is still weaker than in previous years, while the demand for other packaging films has increased. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7270 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -17, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.2%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 487,000 tons (-78,000), which is neutral [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [4] - **Main Position**: The main position of LLDPE is net short, with a reduction in short positions, showing a bearish signal [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract disk oscillates. The demand for agricultural films recovers but is still weak, and the industrial inventory is neutral. It is expected that PE will oscillate today [4] - **Factors**: Positive factors include cost support and anti - involution policies; negative factors include weak demand [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in macro - data. There is new PP production capacity, and downstream demand in industries such as pipes and plastic weaving has improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7000 (0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [8] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 26, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.4%, which is neutral [8] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 539,000 tons (-34,000), which is neutral [8] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [8] - **Main Position**: The main position of PP is net long, turning long, showing a bullish signal [8] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract disk oscillates. With new production capacity and improved downstream demand, and neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PP will oscillate today [8] - **Factors**: Positive factors include cost support and anti - involution policies; negative factors include weak demand [9] Data Tables - **Spot and Futures Market Data**: Provides price and price change data for LLDPE and PP in the spot and futures markets, as well as inventory data [11] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Presents historical supply - demand balance data for polyethylene and polypropylene from 2018 - 2024, including capacity, production, net imports, etc., and expected capacity data for 2025 [16][18] - **Charts**: Displays multiple charts related to polyolefins, such as price - basis charts, inventory charts, production cash - flow charts, and internal - external price difference charts [12][14][19]

Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 4.436 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.49% [1] - The cumulative shipment of lithium iron phosphate reached 148,300 tons, representing a year-on-year growth of 90.23%, securing the second position globally in terms of shipment volume [1] - The company secured a major order from CATL, expected to contribute over 200,000 tons of sales annually, reinforcing its leading position in the market [1] Market Dynamics - The demand for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials continues to grow strongly, driven by the global electric vehicle and energy storage markets [1] - In the first half of 2025, China's cathode material shipment volume reached 2.1 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 53%, with lithium iron phosphate accounting for 1.61 million tons, up 68%, representing nearly 77% of the total cathode material shipment [1] Research and Development - The company has achieved continuous loss reduction for three consecutive quarters, attributed to product quality, market expansion, and ongoing R&D investments [2] - Significant progress has been made in the industrialization of new products such as solid-state battery materials, sodium-ion battery materials, and lithium-rich iron lithium [2] - The company has applied for 38 domestic invention patents and 81 international invention patents during the reporting period, with several technologies aimed at high energy density cathode materials [2] Industry Trends - Approximately 10 leading lithium iron phosphate companies held a closed-door meeting to address overcapacity issues and to advocate for resisting malicious price competition [3] - The industry association called for enhanced self-discipline in capacity management and the establishment of high standards for industry entry, which may lead to a price recovery in the lithium battery sector [3]

Summary of the Conference Call for 双星新材 (Double Star New Materials) Company Overview - **Company Name**: 江苏双星彩塑新材料股份有限公司 (Double Star New Materials) - **Industry**: Special Chemicals, specifically focusing on polyester films (BOPET) for packaging, printing, and functional films for electronics and new energy sectors [doc id='10'][doc id='8']. Key Financial Performance - **Q2 2025 Performance**: - Revenue: 2Q revenue was 2.626 billion RMB, down 7% year-on-year [doc id='1']. - Net Loss: The company reported a net loss of 1.49 billion RMB, which was at the lower end of the forecast [doc id='1']. - Sequential Decline: 2Q revenue decreased by 10% quarter-on-quarter, with net loss expanding to 1.07 billion RMB, more than doubling from Q1 [doc id='1']. - Margins: 2Q gross margin was -1.5% and net margin was -8.6%, compared to +3.9% and -3.1% in Q1 respectively [doc id='1']. Revenue Breakdown - **Optical Films**: Revenue from optical films was 1.183 billion RMB, accounting for 45% of total revenue, down 8% year-on-year with a gross margin of 5% [doc id='8']. - **New Energy Films**: Revenue contribution from new energy films dropped 98%, falling from 8% in Q1 to nearly zero, attributed to capacity shifts to other products [doc id='8']. - **BOPET Films**: Revenue from BOPET films increased by 10%, but gross margin was -13% [doc id='8']. Industry Context - **Capacity Issues**: The industry continues to face overcapacity, with domestic BOPET capacity growing by 3.5% year-on-year in H1 2025, although the growth rate is slowing [doc id='8']. - **Utilization Rates**: Industry capacity utilization is projected to decline from 74% in 2022 to 65.6% in H1 2025 [doc id='8']. Future Outlook - **Guidance**: The company did not provide specific guidance for future performance [doc id='3']. - **Valuation**: The stock maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 7.30 RMB, corresponding to a 19x PE for 2026E and 0.7x PB [doc id='3']. Analyst Insights - **Risks**: Potential risks include slower-than-expected ramp-up of production capacity, increased competition in optical films and photovoltaic backsheet films, and weaker-than-expected demand in related industries [doc id='11']. - **Market Sentiment**: Analysts rated the industry structure as stable (score of 3) and indicated no significant changes in regulatory or government environments [doc id='13']. Important Metrics - **Market Capitalization**: 6.51 billion RMB (approximately 0.91 billion USD) [doc id='4']. - **Stock Performance**: The stock price as of August 27, 2025, was 5.67 RMB, with a 52-week price range of 6.46-4.19 RMB [doc id='4']. Conclusion The financial performance of 双星新材 indicates significant challenges, particularly with increasing losses and declining margins amidst an overcapacity situation in the industry. The outlook remains cautious, with analysts maintaining a "Buy" rating based on future potential despite current struggles.

据证券之星公开数据整理，近期天洋新材（603330）发布2025年中报。截至本报告期末，公司营业总收 入4.68亿元，同比下降28.88%，归母净利润-1056.26万元，同比下降139.15%。按单季度数据看，第二季 度营业总收入2.49亿元，同比下降32.4%，第二季度归母净利润-802.47万元，同比上升18.71%。本报告 期天洋新材三费占比上升明显，财务费用、销售费用和管理费用总和占总营收同比增幅达53.05%。 本次财报公布的各项数据指标表现一般。其中，毛利率22.36%，同比增30.42%，净利率-1.95%，同比 减392.48%，销售费用、管理费用、财务费用总计7951.77万元，三费占营收比16.98%，同比增53.05%， 每股净资产3.53元，同比减12.6%，每股经营性现金流-0.01元，同比增90.44%，每股收益-0.02元，同比 减100.0% | 项目 | 2024年中报 | 2025年中报 | 同比增幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(元) | 6.58亿 | 4.68亿 | -28.88% | | 归母净利润(元) | -441.6 ...

Core Viewpoint - JinkoSolar reported a significant decline in performance for the first half of 2025, with revenue dropping by 32.63% year-on-year to 31.831 billion yuan and a net loss of 2.909 billion yuan compared to a profit of 1.2 billion yuan in the same period last year, primarily due to intensified competition and falling prices in the photovoltaic market [2][5][6]. Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 31.831 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 32.63% year-on-year [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -2.909 billion yuan, a decline of 342.38% compared to a profit of 1.2 billion yuan in the previous year [5][6]. - The non-recurring net profit was -3.175 billion yuan, a staggering drop of 1560.33% year-on-year [5]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was -3.812 billion yuan, attributed to a decrease in received sales payments [7]. Market Context - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing severe challenges, with many players facing similar performance declines. In the first quarter of 2025, 31 A-share listed photovoltaic companies reported a combined net loss of 12.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 274.3% [7]. - Over 40 companies have announced delistings, bankruptcies, or mergers since 2024 [7]. - The industry is facing overcapacity, with domestic manufacturers' production capacity exceeding 1100 GW, while optimistic demand for 2025 is projected at 600 GW globally and 250 GW in China [8]. Strategic Response - JinkoSolar is focusing on technological innovation, global market expansion, and efficient operations to address the challenges posed by supply-demand imbalances and price declines [9]. - The company has reduced its R&D expenses to 1.175 billion yuan, a decrease of 56.95% year-on-year, with R&D expenditure accounting for 3.69% of revenue, down from 5.78% [7]. Leadership and Wealth Impact - The wealth of the founder, Li Xian De, has significantly decreased, with the family's net worth dropping by 6.31 billion yuan to 15.2 billion yuan compared to the previous year, and by 20.1 billion yuan from its peak in 2023 [3][10].