Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation of global stock indices, U.S. Treasury indices, and the performance of various markets, highlighting the recent trends in stock markets and the contrasting behavior of gold prices. Group 1: Global Stock Market Performance - The global stock market has continued to rise, recovering from a short-term drop in early April, with global indices returning to around 3.5 stars after previously falling to 4.1-4.2 stars [1] - U.S., European, and Asian stocks have generally increased, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rising over 2% this week, recovering losses from the tariff crisis [1] - The Hang Seng Index has outperformed the A-share large-cap index by 20% since the beginning of the year, with the healthcare and technology sectors in Hong Kong also outperforming their A-share counterparts by 20% [1] Group 2: Gold Market Trends - Despite the rise in global stock markets, gold has experienced a downturn, correcting approximately 9% since its peak in early April [1] - The strength of the U.S. dollar and its impact on real interest rates have been significant factors influencing gold prices, with a strong dollar generally being unfavorable for gold [1] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Products - The article mentions the availability of global stock index funds in overseas markets, which total over a trillion dollars, but notes the lack of such funds in mainland China [8] - A "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" has been introduced, which diversifies investments across U.S., UK, Hong Kong, and A-share indices to track global stock market performance [9] - The article also highlights the release of a new edition of "The Long-Term Investment Guide," which emphasizes the importance of stock assets for wealth accumulation over the long term [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the dividend index and its implications for investment strategies, highlighting the changes in dividend yields and the overall market conditions affecting these indices. Group 1: Market Performance - The overall market experienced a decline, with large, mid, and small-cap stocks all falling, particularly small-cap stocks which saw a slightly larger drop [1][2][3]. - The value style saw a minor decline, while the growth style experienced a more significant drop [4]. - The Hong Kong stock market also faced a downturn, albeit with smaller declines compared to mainland markets [5]. Group 2: Dividend Index Analysis - The dividend index has shown significant growth over the past few years, with a notable performance from 2022 to 2024 [11]. - The China Securities Dividend Index rose from 1000 points in 2004 to 5581 points by the end of 2024, reflecting an annualized growth rate of approximately 8.9%, and with dividends included, it reached 11105 points, yielding an annualized rate of about 12.7% [12]. - The long-term growth rate for the dividend index is estimated at 8-9%, plus an annual dividend yield of 3-4% [15]. Group 3: Changes in Dividend Yield - Recent years have seen an increase in the dividend yield of the dividend index, with many stocks now offering yields of 5-6%, compared to 4-5% in previous years [16][18]. - Companies are increasingly encouraged to raise their dividend payout ratios, with some now distributing 40-50% of their profits as dividends, up from 30-40% [20]. - This increase in dividend payouts has led to a higher dividend yield but has also resulted in slower earnings growth for dividend stocks [22][26]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that while the dividend index has performed well, the earnings growth rate is expected to slow down, with recent years showing growth rates of 5-6% and dividend yields of 4-5% [24]. - The article warns that if earnings growth for the dividend index declines again, it may lead to prolonged periods of undervaluation [29]. - The core drivers for the net asset value growth of dividend funds remain earnings growth and annual dividends, which have contributed significantly to recent returns [32][34]. Group 5: Fund Performance and Valuation - Some dividend funds have seen net asset value increases ranging from 50% to 80% in recent years, with earnings growth and dividends accounting for 70-80% of these returns [33][34]. - The current valuation of the dividend index is not as low as it was in 2020, indicating a return to normal valuation levels for some products [36]. - The article includes a valuation table for various dividend indices, providing insights into their earnings yield, price-to-earnings ratio, and dividend yield [39].

Group 1 - The core market sentiment shows a recent recovery in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks after a significant drop in early April, with notable increases in the securities and insurance sectors today [23][3][6] - The securities industry has underperformed the market by over 10% until early May, but has recently rebounded, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment [6][5][7] - The value style has generally risen, with major indices like the CSI 300 Value and CSI Dividend returning to normal valuations after previous increases [11][12][14] Group 2 - Hong Kong stocks have shown stronger performance compared to A-shares, with growth driven by technology and growth styles, particularly following positive earnings reports from major companies [25][39][20] - The market liquidity is currently robust, supported by low interest rates and various stimulus policies, which has led to increased interest in small-cap stocks [42][45][46] - The overall market sentiment indicates a lack of confidence among A-share investors, who are still favoring defensive large-cap value stocks, while foreign investors in Hong Kong show stronger confidence in RMB assets [52][54] Group 3 - The article introduces a new feature in the "Today Stars" app that allows users to view real-time ETF valuation data, enhancing investment decision-making capabilities [55][56] - The importance of investing in undervalued areas is emphasized, suggesting that strict adherence to this strategy can mitigate risks and enhance profit potential [59][60]

Group 1 - The article discusses the differences in valuation metrics for the CSI Dividend Index across various platforms, highlighting that the index's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio can vary significantly depending on the weighting method used [1][2]. - The CSI Dividend Index underwent two major rule changes, first in 2013 when it switched from market capitalization weighting to dividend yield weighting, and again in 2022 to enhance the requirements for dividend stability and continuity [2][3]. - The article outlines common weighting methods for indices, including market capitalization weighting, factor weighting, price weighting, and equal weighting, with market capitalization being the most prevalent method [3][4]. Group 2 - A key characteristic of A-share bank stocks is their large total market capitalization but relatively small free-float market capitalization, leading to significant differences in weightings based on the chosen calculation method [5][6]. - The article provides a comparison of total market capitalization and free-float market capitalization, using the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China as an example, with total market capitalization at 25,554.33 billion and free-float market capitalization at 2,482.45 billion [7]. - In the CSI Dividend Index, the proportion of bank stocks can vary dramatically based on the weighting method; for instance, using total market capitalization weighting results in a bank stock proportion of 63.75%, while dividend yield weighting reduces this to 22.43% [8][9]. Group 3 - The current P/E ratio of bank stocks within the CSI Dividend Index is influenced by the weighting method; total market capitalization weighting aligns the P/E ratio closer to the bank stock index at over 7 times, while the true P/E ratio based on actual stock proportions is over 9 times [10][12]. - The article lists the top 20 constituents of the CSI Dividend Index, noting that most have P/E ratios exceeding 10, indicating that the overall index P/E cannot realistically be as low as 7 times [12][13]. - The article emphasizes that the low P/E ratio of 7 times is primarily a result of the high weighting of bank stocks under total market capitalization weighting, which distorts historical data and percentiles [13][17]. Group 4 - The article mentions that various strategy indices, such as leader, dividend, value, low volatility, growth, and quality indices, do not allocate stock proportions based on total market capitalization but rather follow specific strategies [15][16]. - It highlights that early broad-based indices predominantly used total market capitalization weighting for simplicity, but the evolution of indices has led to the development of many strategy indices that require more accurate valuation calculations based on actual stock holdings [17].

Market Overview - The market opened with a slight increase but closed slightly down, maintaining a five-star rating [1] - The CSI 300 large-cap stocks saw a minor increase, while small-cap stocks experienced a slight decline. Value styles such as banking and dividends rose, whereas growth styles fell. The pharmaceutical sector overall increased [2] - The Hong Kong stock market, which had a significant rise yesterday, saw a decline in the morning [3] Sector Performance - Technology stocks in Hong Kong experienced a notable decline [4] - Despite the recent drop, the technology stocks are still considered to be at normal valuation levels after a significant rise in previous weeks, indicating they are not yet undervalued [5] - The earnings reports for Hong Kong technology stocks are being updated, with Q1 earnings growth appearing relatively strong, alleviating concerns about short-term volatility [6][8] Trade and Tariff Updates - A recent announcement regarding the postponement of tariff increases led to a market rebound [9] - However, the tariff issue remains unresolved, with ongoing uncertainty due to factors such as Trump's unpredictability [10] - The market is expected to experience fluctuations in the near term [11] Investment Strategies - The article discusses a systematic investment strategy using a "periodic but irregular" approach, where more is invested when valuations are lower [16] - Two methods for following investment combinations are available: manual and automatic [18][19] - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a calm demeanor and being able to withstand market fluctuations to achieve satisfactory investment results [29]

Group 1 - The overall market is experiencing an upward trend, with the market rating at 5 stars, close to 4.9 stars [1] - All market caps are rising, with small-cap stocks showing slightly higher gains [2] - Growth style stocks are performing better than others [3] Group 2 - Positive news emerged after the A-share market closed, contributing to market optimism [4] - Hong Kong stocks surged significantly after 3 PM, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising over 5% [5] - The surge is attributed to preliminary positive developments in US-China tariff negotiations, maintaining a 10% universal tariff and postponing a 24% reciprocal tariff while canceling 91% of retaliatory tariffs [6][7] Group 3 - The positive tariff news is also beneficial for RMB-denominated assets [7] - The A-share market may reflect these gains in the following trading day due to the timing of the news [9] - The tariff crisis in early April had previously led to a global stock market decline, highlighting the dual-edged nature of tariff increases for USD assets [10] Group 4 - Hong Kong stocks have seen a continuous rise for five weeks [15] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump remains, but such events often present good buying opportunities during short-term volatility [17] - In September of the previous year, both Hong Kong and A-share valuations were at historical lows, with similar performance in subsequent rebounds [18][19] Group 5 - Since the Chinese New Year, Hong Kong stocks have outperformed A-shares, with the Hang Seng Index rising 18% more than the CSI 300 [21] - The technology and pharmaceutical sectors in Hong Kong have also outperformed their A-share counterparts by over 20% [21] - Hong Kong stocks are primarily RMB assets but have a higher proportion of foreign investors compared to mainland funds [24][26] Group 6 - The military industry has seen significant gains recently, with interest in military indices and their valuation [31] - Military indices, such as the CSI Military Index, have high P/E ratios exceeding 100, primarily due to past profit volatility [39] - The military sector is considered a long-term investment theme, with indices like technology and military expected to remain relevant [36] Group 7 - The "Monthly Salary Treasure" investment combination has lowered its entry threshold to 200 yuan and opened a regular investment feature [56] - This combination employs a 40:60 stock-bond balanced strategy and has shown significant excess returns since inception [55] - The market is currently rated at 5.0 stars, indicating a suitable investment phase for the Monthly Salary Treasure combination [58]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘整体微跌，中证全指下跌0.7%，波动不大，还在5星。 大盘股微跌，小盘股下跌略多。 红利等价值风格整体上涨，遇到下跌的时候，价值风格通常比较抗跌。 成长风格微跌。 港股盘中也下跌，不过到收盘的时候恒生指数变成上涨。 1. 有朋友问，港股今年表现比较强。后面A股会跟上港股的表现么？ 去年9月份，最低到5.9星的时候，当时A股港股都是历史最低估值附近。 随后到去年4季度，两个市场都反弹，第一波上涨，幅度也相仿。 到今年春节前，都反弹到4.9-5星上下。 不过春节后，港股率先上涨。 从春节后到3月，港股恒生指数，比A股大盘股指数，多上涨了15%。 港股恒生医疗、港股科技，比A股的医药医疗、科技，多上涨了20%。 A股的估值还在5星上下。 如果A股有港股的涨幅，那也接近3点几星了。 2. 港股本身也是人民币资产为主。 内地公司在港股占比较高。 从去年9月美联储进入这轮降息周期之后，人民币资产整体受益。 A股港股的涨幅居于全球前列。其中港股的表现更强势一些。 一方面，港股是欧美投资者为主，这几年内地资金在港股比例逐渐提升，但目前还是欧美投资者比例高。 老外看好人民币资产， ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market has been on an upward trend, continuing to rise for four consecutive weeks since early April [6] - A-shares also experienced a rebound, closing at a rating of 5.1 stars [1][28] - Both large, medium, and small-cap stocks saw increases, with small-cap stocks showing a more significant rise [2] Investment Style Performance - Value style showed a slight increase, while growth style experienced a more substantial rise [3] - During upward market movements, small-cap and growth styles exhibit greater elasticity [4] Investment Strategies - The article discusses a systematic investment strategy using a "periodic but irregular" approach, where more funds are allocated when valuations are lower [10] - Two methods for following investment strategies are outlined: manual and automatic [14][16] Pension Fund Investment - The article presents a personal pension fund investment plan, detailing specific funds and their current prices [18] - A valuation table for various indices is provided, highlighting metrics such as price-to-earnings ratio and dividend yield [24][25] Monthly Income Strategy - The "Monthly Salary Treasure" investment strategy has lowered its minimum investment threshold to 200 yuan, now offering a systematic investment option [27] - This strategy aims to meet regular cash flow needs, suitable for long-term holding [27][28] Valuation Insights - A valuation table is included, indicating various indices' earnings yield, price-to-earnings ratio, and other financial metrics, with color coding to indicate investment suitability [33][36]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 有朋友问，看到有的网站，中证红利市盈率只有7倍多。 但是看螺丝钉估值表里，中证红利市盈率则是9倍多。 为啥会有差异呢？ 不同平台，指数加权方式不同 这是一个老生常谈的话题。 这涉及到指数的加权方式，即计算估值的时候，每个股票分配的比例多少。 目前大多数平台，没有自己的指数估值数据，使用的是金融终端的估值数据。 因为金融终端的估值数据，花钱就可以获得数据接口，从而方便的调取数据。 而金融终端中，通常对所有指数是用总市值加权。 即哪个股票市值大，计算的时候分配比例高。 但是红利指数，使用是股息率加权。即哪个股票股息率高，计算的时候分配比例高。 红利指数中，银行股市盈率失真 两者最大的差异，在银行股上。 例如在中证红利指数中，工商银行，占比在1.2%-1.3%上下，不到1.5%。 这是按照股息率加权，计算出来的比例。 正常情况下，计算红利指数市盈率估值的时候，工商银行在计算中占比就在1.2%-1.3%的权重。 但是从总市值上，工商银行达到2.55万亿，是一个庞然大物。 按总市值计算，工商银行这一家，就能占到12%。 再加上中国银行、农业银行、交通银行等等，银行股按总市值，将会 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market, highlighting the performance of different sectors and the outlook for corporate earnings in the coming years. It emphasizes the importance of valuation and earnings growth as key drivers for market movements. Market Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index saw slight declines, while small-cap stocks experienced gains [2][3] - Value-style stocks, such as banks, faced significant declines, whereas growth-style stocks saw increases [4] - Hong Kong stocks overall rose, with technology stocks leading the gains [5][6] Valuation Insights - After a brief decline in early April, the market has rebounded, returning to a normal valuation range [7] - Many stocks are currently undervalued, suggesting limited downside potential [10] - Institutional investors, including state-owned entities, tend to buy heavily when the market dips, further reducing downside risk [11] Earnings Growth Outlook - For 2024, A-share market earnings are expected to decline slightly by about 2% compared to 2023 [19] - In the first quarter of 2025, earnings are projected to grow by approximately 3-4%, marking the first annual improvement since 2022 [20] - Sectors such as internet and high-end manufacturing are expected to maintain stable earnings growth [21] Sector-Specific Performance - Traditional industries like finance, consumption, and utilities have seen modest earnings growth in recent years [22] - The pharmaceutical sector, which experienced significant growth during the pandemic, is expected to recover in late 2024 and early 2025 [23] - The real estate sector continues to struggle with declining earnings, although the rate of decline is slowing [23] Economic Factors and Market Dynamics - The article notes potential uncertainties, such as the impact of Trump's tariff policies on export-oriented industries [24] - If earnings growth continues in the second and third quarters, the economy may gradually recover from its current low phase, opening up more market upside [24] - Historically, strong economic years have coincided with market peaks, suggesting that low periods may offer better valuation opportunities [24] Investment Tools and Features - A new feature in the "Today Star" mini-program allows users to view real-time star ratings and set custom alerts for specific star levels [25][26][28]