8月25日，重要的话放开头，A股，上证指数压力在3920，该点位不会阻挡趋势，而是会让指数略有颠簸，按照目前3万亿的成交金额，足够沪指冲击4000 点，但，4000点上下会有一次大洗盘！ 历史上， 整千点大关从来没有一次突破之后不回调！ 本轮牛市已经确认，板上钉钉。股票为什么上涨？是资金，是基本面，是趋势。其实，我们把简单的事搞复杂了。有些事，走近看不清全貌，只有将视角 拉足够高、远才能看清。为什么会有牛市？从改革开放至今47年的视角来看，你只需知道一点：本轮牛市就是经济周期到了！ 我不建议普通价值投资人参与到芯片末日轮抢筹，我怕普通价投犯错：牛市是因为周期，但由于市场上有人为上涨"找理由"。而一旦普通投资人听之信 之，那么就会在顶部区域过度犹豫和恋战，甚至在顶部加码加杠杆，最终成为接盘侠。我们要牢记：牛市勿沉迷，那些估值向上，但依然能够用基本面解 释的，才是能够穿越牛熊的投资目标。以新医药对比，过去5年，寒武纪研发总额60多亿，而60多亿基本上只是一家药企一年的研发投入量。都是技术护 城河，中国新医药研发投入造就的护城河比芯片更宽，且医药市盈率更为合理。 总结，为何"不用给牛市找理由"？其一，是为了让投资人 ...

Consumer Trends - The new consumption sector continues to gain momentum, with A-shares experiencing a valuation increase driven by emotional consumption, channel innovation, and brand expansion overseas[4] - In the first half of 2025, the domestic smartphone shipment volume was 20.63 million units, a year-on-year decline of 6.4% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.6%[28] - The global IP toy market is expected to exceed 400 billion yuan by 2025, with China's market growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.90% from 2019 to 2023, significantly higher than the global rate of 9.30%[8] High-end Manufacturing - Liquid cooling technology is identified as a key solution for data centers to address energy consumption issues, potentially reducing Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) to below 1.1[4] - The energy consumption of AI data centers is projected to reach 77.7 TWh in 2025, doubling from 2023, with a CAGR of 44.8% from 2022 to 2027[16] - Liquid cooling solutions can achieve energy savings of over 20%-30%, providing both economic and environmental benefits[18] Hard Technology - The penetration rate of foldable smartphones is expected to rise from 1.6% in 2025 to over 3% by 2027, driven by Apple's entry into the market and ongoing price reductions[31] - The total cost of foldable smartphones is significantly higher than non-foldable models, with display/touch modules and lenses seeing increases of 177% and 28% respectively[38] - In 2025, foldable smartphone shipments are projected to reach 19.8 million units, maintaining the same penetration rate as 2024[31]

近期，A股市场表现强劲，港股市场也同步改善，恒生指数几度突破25000点位，种种迹象指向全面牛 市行情的启动。 在港股市场主线的把握上，机构则普遍看好科技、消费。比如国泰海通提到，港股科技、消费类资产与 当前AI应用、新消费等产业趋势相关度更高，且基本面更优，相较A股而言仍具有稀缺性。 同时，随着当下中报的密集披露，市场进入业绩验证窗口期，提供出新的投资线索。 在这样的背景下，笔者沿着消费赛道重点挖掘那些既与新消费等趋势相关，又具备优质基本面的企业， 并关注到了慕尚集团。 或许读者会疑问和好奇，为什么是慕尚集团？下面我们就来深入剖析一番。 一、经营韧性较强，利润增速领先行业 上半年，一众消费企业的中期业绩"亮红灯"，纺织服装领域整体也有所承压，特别是传统品牌整体依然 处于转型调整期，利润端的压力尤为突出。也正因此，利润表现成为当下验证服装品牌基本面的关键指 标之一。 核心逻辑在于，服装品牌转型过程中难免经历阵痛，无论是模式调整还是资源投入都需要时间消化。而 持续盈利是企业扛过调整期的波动，进入业绩收获阶段的关键支撑。 在这样的背景下，慕尚集团展现出较强的经营韧性，利润实现大幅增长，增速在行业处于靠前位置，也 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that AI technology and new consumption sectors have significant growth potential, with southbound capital enhancing its marginal pricing power in Hong Kong stocks, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [1] - The long-term outlook for Hong Kong stocks remains positive due to valuation advantages and trends in industrial transformation and upgrading [1] - Continuous policy support for the domestic technology industry is expected to attract more capital attention towards Hong Kong technology companies [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index (931573), focusing on technology companies listed in Hong Kong through the Stock Connect channel [1] - The index covers various sectors including information technology, electronic components, and interactive media and services, with a focus on soft technology areas like internet services and the entire AI industry chain [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Cathay CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF Initiated Link C (015740) and Link A (015739) [1]

今日（8.25），A股情绪高涨，半天市场成交额已超2万亿，目前成交额已超2.6万亿。消费ETF（159928）大涨2%，盘中成交额已超11亿元，较上一交易日 大举放量。资金面上，盘中获净申购6.38亿份，截至上周五近5日累计"吸金"超12亿元，最新规模超154亿元，同类遥遥领先！ 新消费板块需求高景气度下，预计业绩稳步释放，基本面驱动动力充沛。新茶饮重点关注茶百道（供应链广布局后门店加密成本边际下降，2025年目标新增 1100+家）、古茗（自建供应链+咖啡品类布局+下沉市场加密，2025年新增2000家）、蜜雪集团。 （来源：华鑫证券20250824《半年报利空充分释放》） 平安证券表示，当前中报披露窗口期，行业景气度较高的依然是功能饮料和休闲零食，企业经营管理层面不断推出新品、进入新渠道也为行业带来增量，后 续基本面的增长依然有持续性。另外，我国原奶价格仍处于下行周期，8月8日数据显示，我国生鲜乳主产区平均价为3.02元/公斤，同比下降5.90%。25H2有 望供需平衡，26年奶价上行确定性较强，行业竞争有望趋缓，销售费用率的下降能够带来企业盈利能力的改善，叠加生育补贴政策落地进一步提升行业需 求，头部乳 ...

随着资金持续净流入以及港股市场的上涨，华夏基金旗下港股ETF总规模突破1000亿元，成为全市 场首家港股ETF规模破千亿的基金管理人。据悉，华夏基金港股ETF不仅规模最大，布局也全面，港股 ETF基金数量最多，达到14只，涵盖宽基、科技、医药、红利、消费等。 今日港股三大指数集体高开，恒生指数涨1.06%，恒生科指涨1.49%，国企指数涨1.07%。盘面上， 科网股全线上涨，AI概念股强势，新能源车企股延续涨势，创新药概念普遍上涨，港股消费板块活 跃，港股消费ETF（513230）早盘持续走强，现已涨近2%。 消息面上，近期阿里巴巴重新划分业务板块，从六大业务集团+其他业务变更为阿里中国电商集 团、阿里国际数字商业集团、云智能集团及所有其他业务。饿了么、飞猪归入阿里中国电商集团，高 德、菜鸟、优酷、大麦等归入"所有其他"。阿里发布编程平台Qoder，可实现AI自主研发。 招商策略认为，展望后市，仍然对港股市场保持乐观态度。截至目前数据，港股中报盈利向好，业 绩预喜率创三年来新高，"新经济"含量更高的港股盈利或先于A股持续改善。在前几次牛市中港股指数 高度略逊于A股，所以在本轮配置时，建议聚焦与A股存在差异化的 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 泡泡玛特于2020年在港交所上市，截至8月22日收盘，泡泡玛特每股报价320.4港元，总市值超过4300亿 港元，今年以来，泡泡玛特股价涨幅超过258%。根据其8月19日发布的2025年上半年财报显示，实现营 收138.8亿元，同比增长204.4%，经调整净利润47.1亿元，同比增长362.8%。半年营收突破百亿，净利 润超2024全年，集团业绩再创新高，各项经营指标表现优异。在业绩说明会上，泡泡玛特董事长兼CEO 王宁曾表示集团全年营收预计不低于300亿元。 港股消费ETF（513230）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，一键打包互联网电商龙头+新消费，成分股近 乎囊括港股消费的各个领域，包括泡泡玛特、老铺黄金、蜜雪集团等新消费龙头，又包含小米、阿里巴 巴、腾讯、美团等互联网电商龙头，科技+消费属性突出。 8月22日，恒生指数公司公布最新季度检讨结果，决定将中国电信、京东物流、泡泡玛特纳入恒生指 数，成分股数目由85只增至88只，调整将于9月8日生效。这是泡泡玛特首次被纳入恒生指数，体现了资 本市场对于泡泡玛特综合实力的高度认可。此前，泡泡玛特曾多次被列入恒生指数潜在候选股。 就在纳入 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong consumer sector is experiencing positive momentum, with significant gains in key stocks and the recognition of new consumption brands in major indices [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index rose by 1.8% as of 10:05 AM, with notable increases in stocks such as Li Ning (over 5%), Alibaba-W, and Miniso (over 4%), and Meituan-W and Lao Pu Gold (over 2%) [1] - The inclusion of Pop Mart in the Hang Seng Index, effective from September 8, indicates a growing market acceptance of new consumption brands [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The new consumption sector is showing strong performance, exemplified by Pop Mart's projected revenue of 13.88 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 204%, and an adjusted net profit of 4.71 billion yuan, up 372% year-on-year [1] - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index includes leading companies across various sectors such as tourism, trendy toys, e-commerce, and consumer electronics, with a rolling P/E ratio of 21.3, which is below the 20th percentile since its launch in 2020 [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The E Fund Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513070) offers T+0 trading and a low management fee of 0.15% per year, providing investors with an opportunity to capitalize on the trends of quality and personalized consumption [1]

佰泽医疗(02609.HK)获纳入恒生指数系列成份股 港股收评：恒生指数涨0.62%！光伏、钢铁成亮点，军 工、芯片股表现疲软 杠杆资金涌入！政金债券ETF、香港证券ETF、30年国债ETF、科创AIETF、恒生 科技指数ETF获得青睐 港股收评：三大指数涨跌不一，恒生科技指数涨0.56%，医药、军工、汽车大涨 鲍威尔暗示或在9月降息，上周五美股大涨！道指再创新高，中概指数涨2.73%。港股三大指大幅高 开，恒指涨1.06%，国指涨1.07%，恒生科技指数涨1.49%。盘面上，大型科技股全线上涨，百度涨近 3%，京东、阿里巴巴涨超2%，腾讯涨1.42%，网易、小米、美团均上涨；汽车股大涨，蔚来汽车涨近 15%，东风集团股份高开超69%，子公司岚图汽车将以介绍上市方式登陆港股，东风集团股份将同步完 成私有化退市；电信设备股、新消费概念股、核电股、物流股、黄金股等纷纷上涨，其中，名创优品涨 超9%，中兴通讯涨近4%。另一方面，餐饮股、特斯拉概念股、直播概念股走低，东方甄选跌近3%。 (格隆汇) 相关事件 ...

Group 1: Investment Activities of Notable Private Equity Firms - The Ge family, led by Ge Weidong, has made a rare investment in consumer stocks, specifically entering the shareholder list of Huangjiu brand Kuaijishan [1][5] - Gao Yi Asset's Feng Liu has newly invested in Taiji Group, holding 20 million shares valued at 426 million yuan, while also increasing positions in Longbai Group and Angel Yeast [1][11] - Ningquan Asset, managed by Yang Dong, has entered the shareholder list of clean energy company Tianhao Energy, holding 14.56 million shares valued at 74 million yuan [1][13] - Rui Jun Asset's chief researcher Dong Chengfei has newly invested in power semiconductor company Yangjie Technology and decorative board leader Tubao, while reducing holdings in Chipongwei [1][14] - Renqiao Asset's Xia Junjie has increased positions in New Classics and Su Kuan Agricultural Development, holding 2.29 million shares valued at 44 million yuan and 14.22 million shares valued at 140 million yuan respectively [1][15] Group 2: Financial Performance of Kuaijishan - Kuaijishan reported a revenue of 817 million yuan for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.03%, with a net profit of 93.88 million yuan, up 3.41% [1][7] - The stock price of Kuaijishan surged from approximately 11 yuan per share to a peak of 26.39 yuan per share during the second quarter, resulting in an overall increase of 93.19% [1][5] Group 3: Financial Performance of Taiji Group - Taiji Group reported total revenue of 5.658 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year decline of 27.63%, with a net profit of 139 million yuan, down 71.94% [1][11]