Core Insights - Japan's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding fresh food rose by 2.9% year-on-year in September, marking the 49th consecutive month of increase [1] - The primary driver of the price increase was the accelerated rise in energy prices, with electricity and gas prices turning from declines of 7% and 5% respectively in the previous month to increases of 3.2% and 2.2% [1] - The price increases for food and durable consumer goods have moderated compared to last year, but the price of ordinary japonica rice surged by 48.6%, while chocolate and coffee bean prices rose by 50.9% and 64.1% respectively [1] - Hotel accommodation fees increased by 5.8% year-on-year, influenced by rising demand for inbound tourism [1] - Experts believe that the new government's potential implementation of more accommodative fiscal and monetary policies may lead to a depreciation of the yen, further exacerbating inflationary pressures in Japan [1]

Core Insights - Japan's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding fresh food rose by 2.9% year-on-year in September, reaching 111.4, marking the 49th consecutive month of increase and a resurgence in price growth since May [1] Group 1: Price Trends - The increase in consumer prices is primarily driven by a surge in energy prices, with electricity and gas prices turning from a year-on-year decline of 7% and 5% in the previous month to increases of 3.2% and 2.2% respectively [1] - While the price increases for food and durable consumer goods have moderated compared to last year, the price of ordinary japonica rice surged by 48.6%, and chocolate and coffee bean prices rose by 50.9% and 64.1% respectively [1] - Hotel accommodation fees increased by 5.8% year-on-year, influenced by the growing demand for inbound tourism [1] Group 2: Economic Policy Implications - Media and experts suggest that the new Japanese government's intention to adopt more aggressive fiscal and monetary policies may lead to further depreciation of the yen, potentially exacerbating inflation in Japan [1]

Group 1 - The election of Sanna Takashi as Japan's first female Prime Minister has led to increased expectations for loose fiscal and monetary policies, resulting in a significant depreciation of the yen against major currencies [1][2] - Following Takashi's election, investors have adjusted their strategies, leading to a surge in stock purchases and a sell-off of the yen, with the Nikkei index approaching the 50,000 mark [1][2] - Concerns have arisen regarding potential interference in the Bank of Japan's decisions, with fears that Takashi may prevent interest rate hikes and delay the normalization of monetary policy [1][2] Group 2 - Japan's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been rising for 48 consecutive months, with a notable increase of over 3% for seven months this year, making inflation a top priority for the government [2][3] - Takashi's proposed policies to address rising prices include reducing gasoline and diesel taxes, as well as providing support to struggling small and medium-sized enterprises, which some experts view as contradictory [2][3] - Economists warn that fiscal expansion measures, such as tax cuts, could further exacerbate inflation, while the depreciation of the yen is expected to reduce purchasing power for the general public [3]

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of Japan's implementation of expansive fiscal and monetary policies has significantly increased, leading to a notable depreciation of the yen against major currencies like the US dollar and the euro [2] Currency Exchange Impact - As of the 21st, the exchange rate of the US dollar to the yen has risen to the 151 range, compared to the 147 range observed on October 3 [2] Economic Concerns - Japanese scholars express concerns that the substantial depreciation of the yen will reduce the purchasing power of the Japanese public [2] - There are fears that rising prices may become a long-term issue, as the depreciation of the yen and increasing import prices will further strain the financial situation of the public [2] - This situation poses greater challenges for the Japanese government and central bank in balancing their policies [2]

Core Insights - There is a significant increase in expectations for Japan to implement loose fiscal and monetary policies, leading to a notable depreciation of the yen against major currencies like the US dollar and the euro [2] - As of the 21st, the exchange rate of the US dollar to the yen has risen to the 151 range, compared to the 147 range on October 3 [2] - Japanese scholars express concerns that the sharp depreciation of the yen will reduce the purchasing power of the Japanese public, potentially leading to prolonged inflation [2] Economic Impact - The depreciation of the yen and rising import prices are expected to further strain the financial situation of the Japanese populace, posing greater challenges for the government's and central bank's policy balance [2]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's September exports ended a four-month decline, growing by 4.2% year-on-year, primarily benefiting from yen depreciation and strong shipments to Asian markets, although the growth fell short of market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Export Performance - September exports increased by 4.2% year-on-year, reversing August's 0.1% decline, but this growth was below economists' expectations of 5.7% [1]. - Exports to Asia were a highlight, with a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, driven by semiconductor exports, which grew by 12.6% in value [2][3]. - Exports to the United States contracted for the sixth consecutive month, decreasing by 13.3% year-on-year, significantly impacted by tariffs from the Trump administration [1][3]. Group 2: Currency and Economic Factors - The yen depreciated by 2.3% against the dollar year-on-year, enhancing the price competitiveness of Japanese goods [1]. - Despite the yen's depreciation, the actual impact on exports is questioned, as policy factors like tariffs may have a more significant effect than currency fluctuations [2]. - The new Prime Minister's policies may further weaken the yen, with the market betting on a "Kishida trade" that has driven the Nikkei 225 index to a historical high [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Economists warn that if the US-Japan interest rate differential narrows, it could lead to yen appreciation, potentially suppressing export values [1][4]. - The trade outlook remains uncertain, with domestic demand unlikely to rescue the economy, as highlighted by Moody's analysis [4]. - Japan's GDP for the second quarter was revised up to 0.5%, indicating stronger-than-expected economic resilience [4].

来源丨新华社 编辑丨刘雪莹 日本或迎首位女首相，分析称日元可能贬值 日本前首相村山富市去世，享年101岁 SFC 21君荐读 日本石破茂内阁21日全体辞职。新内阁将于当天下午经临时国会首相指名选举后，由新当选的 首相重新组建。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a surge in gold purchases in Japan, driven by rising gold prices and a loss of confidence in the yen due to inflation and currency depreciation [2][3][4] - Gold prices in Japan have doubled in two years and quadrupled in five years, reaching 22,400 yen per gram (approximately 1,057 RMB), leading to a collective anxiety among investors [2][3] - The demand for smaller gold bars (5g, 10g, 20g) has surged as the price of larger bars (100g) becomes unaffordable for average workers, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards gold as a safe haven [2][3] Group 2 - The gold buying frenzy has disrupted supply chains, with retailers like Tanaka Precious Metals halting sales of gold bars under 50 grams due to overwhelming demand [3] - Political uncertainties, including the election of a pro-expansion fiscal leader, have exacerbated fears of yen depreciation, prompting consumers to seek gold as a more reliable form of currency [3][4] - The article suggests that the current situation in Japan may reflect a broader global trend of distrust in fiat currencies, with gold being viewed as a more stable asset amidst economic turmoil [4]

Core Viewpoint - Japanese authorities may tolerate a moderate depreciation of the yen, but significant declines below 160 yen per dollar could prompt intervention [1][2] Group 1: Market Reactions and Expectations - The recent unexpected victory of candidate Sanae Takaichi has lowered market expectations for a short-term interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, leading to the largest weekly decline of the yen this year [1] - The yen is expected to drop nearly 4% this week, marking the largest decline since early October last year, with the current exchange rate around 153 yen per dollar [2] - Market participants view 160 yen per dollar as a critical threshold, increasing the likelihood of currency intervention [2] Group 2: Potential Government Actions - Takaichi has expressed a desire to avoid excessive depreciation of the yen but has not issued warnings regarding the recent decline, acknowledging both advantages and disadvantages of a weaker yen [2] - Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato stated that authorities are monitoring excessive and disorderly exchange rate fluctuations, indicating a readiness to intervene if necessary [2] Group 3: Economic Implications - The focus of Japanese authorities has shifted since 2022 from preventing excessive appreciation of the yen to avoiding significant depreciation, which could exacerbate inflation and harm consumer purchasing power [2]

周五（10月10日）亚洲交易时段，美元/日元在触及2月13日以来新高153.2700后略有下降，不过下行空 间受限，最新美元兑日元汇率报152.7900，跌幅0.18%，日本10年期公债收益率周五触及逾17年高点， 因日元疲软提高了人们对日本央行将加息的押注。 10年期日本公债收益率上升1个基点至1.7%，为2008年7月以来最高。三井住友信托资产管理公司高级 策略师稻留克俊说，"日元疲软加剧了人们对日本央行可能提前加息的揣测。" 在自民党总裁选举中，财政鸽派人士高市早苗胜出，市场此前对日本央行可能推迟加息的押注出现逆 转。之所以出现这种逆转，是因为市场担心日元疲软可能会提振进口价格，从而加速通胀。 日本五年期公债收益率上升0.5个基点至1.24%，为2008年7月以来的最高水平。两年期日本公债收益率 持平于0.925%。20年期日本公债收益率下跌1个基点，至2.705%。30年期日本公债收益率持平于 3.175%。 前日本央行官员、曾参与过去外汇干预的Atsushi Takeuchi表示，如果日元急剧跌向160，日本可能会进 行干预，并警告过度贬值可能会迫使东京出手。 Takeuchi表示，到目前为止日元的 ...