行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 7 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 请阅读正文后的声明- 2 - 1. 2025 年 8 月 6 日 0#锌主流成交价集中在 22270~22405 元/吨，双燕成交于 22380~22505元/吨，1#锌主流成交于22200~22335元/吨。早盘市场对SMM 均价报价升水 30~50 元/吨，对盘报价几无。第二交易时段，普通国产报 价对 2509 合约升水 20 元/吨，红鹭-v 对 2509 合约升水 20 元/吨，会泽对 2509 合约升水 80~90 元/吨，高价品牌双燕对 2509 合约升水 130 元/吨。 2. 宁 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 6, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Peng Jinglin, Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei [4] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai zinc market rebounded compared to the previous day, with the main contract ZN2509 closing at 22,380 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan or 0.79%. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest decreased by 4,253 lots to 98,475 lots. The net short position of the top 20 seats decreased by 3,045 lots [7]. - The average monthly TC of domestic zinc concentrates in August increased by 100 yuan to 3,900 yuan/metal ton. Supported by high TC and high by - product profits, smelting enterprises are highly motivated to produce, and the overall zinc ingot supply remains strong [7]. - The "trade - in" policy for consumer goods continues, and the third batch of funds has been allocated. There is an expected increase in zinc demand from infrastructure in the second half of the year. However, the demand is currently weak in the short term, and the operating rates of galvanizing and die - casting zinc alloy are still at historically low levels [7]. - The core contradiction of abundant zinc ore and sufficient zinc ingots in the zinc market is more prominent during the off - season of demand, and the social inventory has continued to accumulate to over 100,000 tons. Short - term bears have closed their positions, but as the price rebounds, the downstream purchasing sentiment has worsened, the spot premium has weakened, and the rebound height of Shanghai zinc is limited, operating in the middle - lower range of the Bollinger Bands [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: The opening, closing, highest, and lowest prices, as well as the changes and percentage changes of different Shanghai zinc contracts (2508, 2509, 2510) are presented. The main contract ZN2509 had specific price and trading volume changes [7]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: High TC and by - product profits support strong zinc ingot supply. Demand policies exist, but short - term demand is weak, and the operating rates of related industries are low. The supply - demand contradiction leads to inventory accumulation [7]. - **Market Trend**: The short - term rebound of Shanghai zinc is limited, and it operates in the middle - lower range of the Bollinger Bands [7]. 2. Industry News - **Price and Premium in Different Regions**: The mainstream transaction prices and premiums of 0 zinc and 1 zinc in different regions (including Shanghai, Ningbo, Tianjin, and Guangdong) are reported, showing price differences and market characteristics in each region [8][9]. 3. Data Overview - **Graphs**: The report includes graphs such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, and LME zinc inventory, with data sources from Wind, SMM, and the research and development department of CCB Futures [11][13]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 5, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: The opening price of SHFE Zinc 2508 was 22,160 yuan/ton, closing at 22,260 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan or 0.25%. The opening price of SHFE Zinc 2509 was 22,225 yuan/ton, closing at 22,255 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan or 0.40%. The opening price of SHFE Zinc 2510 was 22,235 yuan/ton, closing at 22,250 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan or 0.47%. The main contract 2509 saw a reduction in positions by 5,359 to 102,725 lots [7]. - Supply: In the third quarter, the output of restarted mines continued to recover, leading to a loose supply of zinc ore and an increase in processing fees. The domestic zinc ore TC was reported at 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC was reported at 76.25 US dollars/dry ton. The average monthly domestic zinc concentrate TC in August increased by 100 yuan to 3,900 yuan/metal ton. With high TC and high by - product profits, smelting enterprises were highly motivated to produce, and new zinc ingot production capacities were gradually released, resulting in a strong overall zinc ingot supply [7]. - Demand: The "trade - in" policy for consumer goods continued, and the third batch of funds had been allocated. There was an expected increase in zinc demand from infrastructure in the second half of the year. However, demand was currently weak, and the operating rates of galvanizing and die - casting zinc alloy were still at historically low levels [7]. - Market Situation: The core contradiction of loose zinc ore and sufficient zinc ingots was more prominent during the off - season of demand, with continuous inventory pressure. After the digestion of anti - involution sentiment, SHFE zinc prices declined under pressure [7]. Group 3: Industry News - Shanghai Market: On August 4, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,185 - 22,315 yuan/ton, and that of 1 zinc was between 22,115 - 22,245 yuan/ton. The morning market quoted a premium of 60 - 80 yuan/ton to the SMM average price. In the second trading session, ordinary domestic zinc was quoted at a premium of 50 - 70 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract [8]. - Ningbo Market: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was around 22,135 - 22,245 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo were quoted at a premium of 5 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract and a premium of 10 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price [8]. - Tianjin Market: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was between 22,110 - 22,240 yuan/ton, and that of 1 zinc was around 22,180 - 22,260 yuan/ton. The price of Huludao zinc was reported at 22,820 yuan/ton. 0 zinc was generally quoted at a discount of 0 - 20 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract [8]. - Guangdong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was between 22,070 - 22,245 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands were quoted at a discount of 35 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract and a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong widened [8][9]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report presents data on the weekly inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots (in ten thousand tons), LME zinc inventory (in tons), the price trends of zinc in two markets, and SHFE monthly spreads, with data sources including Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][15][16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the steady growth in sales revenue for enterprises in China during the first half of the year, driven by various favorable policies and market dynamics [1][2] Group 2 - Manufacturing industry shows stable quality improvement, with sales revenue growth rate 1.5 percentage points higher than the overall national enterprise growth rate; equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sales revenue increased by 8.9% and 11.9% respectively [1] - High-tech industries experienced a significant sales revenue increase of 14.3%, indicating the continuous expansion of innovative industries [1] - The digital economy's core industries saw a sales revenue growth of 10.1%, with enterprise procurement of digital technologies increasing by 9.9%, reflecting the ongoing integration of digital and real economies [1] Group 3 - The "Two New" policies have shown significant effectiveness, with national enterprise machinery equipment procurement amount increasing by 11.1% year-on-year [2] - Consumer demand has been released more rapidly, with retail sales of home audio-visual equipment and daily appliances like refrigerators increasing by 45.3% and 56.6% respectively [2] - The construction of a unified national market is progressing steadily, with inter-provincial sales accounting for 40.7% of national enterprise sales revenue, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that in the first half of 2025, national enterprise sales revenue is experiencing steady growth, with the manufacturing sector improving in quality and efficiency, and the "two new" policies showing significant results [1] - Manufacturing sales revenue growth rate is 1.5 percentage points faster than the overall national enterprise growth rate, highlighting its role as a key support for economic stability [3] - The high-end manufacturing sector is progressing steadily, with sales revenue in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 8.9% and 11.9% year-on-year, respectively [6] Group 2 - The innovation industry is expanding, with high-tech industry sales revenue growing by 14.3% year-on-year, indicating rapid growth [8] - The procurement of machinery and equipment by enterprises increased by 11.1% year-on-year, continuing the strong growth trend observed since 2024, driven by large-scale equipment renewal policies [11] - Consumer demand is being continuously released due to the old-for-new policy, with retail sales of home audio-visual equipment and daily household appliances increasing by 45.3% and 56.6% year-on-year, respectively [15] Group 3 - Inter-provincial sales accounted for 40.7% of national enterprise sales revenue, an increase of 0.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year, reflecting deepening inter-provincial trade connections and steady progress in building a unified national market [17]

Group 1 - The national subsidy program has faced interruptions since late May due to funding shortages, with some regions pausing or limiting the subsidies [1] - The third batch of national subsidy funds is confirmed to be released at the end of July, with a total budget of 300 billion RMB for the year, of which 162 billion RMB has already been distributed in the first two batches [3] - The subsidy scope has expanded this year to include categories beyond home appliances, such as renovation, bathroom, and smart devices, with specific subsidy amounts for different energy efficiency levels [5] Group 2 - The distribution of the third batch of funds will be more refined, with some regions implementing daily limits or timed coupon releases to prevent rapid depletion of funds [8] - Certain regions still allow unrestricted access to subsidies, while others require users to compete for limited coupons, indicating a disparity in access based on location [8][9] - The authorities have emphasized strict measures against fraudulent practices related to the subsidy program, which may complicate cross-region subsidy claims for consumers [9]

Core Viewpoint - China's economy has shown resilience with a GDP growth of 5.3% in the first half of 2025, despite external pressures and internal challenges. The focus is on implementing new policies to sustain economic recovery in the second half of the year [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Policies and Measures - The upcoming Central Political Bureau meeting will assess the economic situation and deploy measures for the second half of the year, with an emphasis on optimizing counter-cyclical adjustment policies [2]. - The introduction of a national childcare subsidy scheme, effective from January 1, 2025, will provide families with 3,600 yuan per year for each child until the age of three, benefiting over 20 million families [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has allocated 690 billion yuan in special bonds to support the "old for new" consumption policy, with plans for further allocations [3]. Group 2: Consumption and Investment Trends - The "old for new" consumption policy has significantly boosted sales, with over 1.6 trillion yuan in sales from five major categories by mid-2025, surpassing the total sales for 2024 [4]. - Investment in equipment and tools saw a year-on-year increase of 17.3% in the first half of 2025, with specific sectors like computer and office equipment manufacturing growing by 21.5% [5]. Group 3: Employment and Social Policies - The overall employment situation remains stable, with the urban unemployment rate averaging 5.2% in the first half of 2025, slightly down from the previous quarter [12]. - The government has introduced 19 policy measures to stabilize employment, focusing on supporting enterprises, enhancing skills training, and improving employment services [12][13]. - There is a call for increased efforts in social security and healthcare policies to enhance the inclusivity of macroeconomic policies [14].

Economic Growth and Policy Adjustments - China's economy achieved a growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year, despite external pressures and internal challenges [1][2] - The upcoming Central Political Bureau meeting at the end of July will assess the current economic situation and outline policies for the second half of the year [1] - Experts anticipate that counter-cyclical adjustment policies will be optimized to enhance employment and economic stability [1][7] Consumer Spending and Investment - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has allocated 690 billion yuan in special bonds to support the "old for new" consumption policy, with plans for additional funding in October [2][5] - The "old for new" policy has significantly boosted sales, with over 1.6 trillion yuan in sales generated from five categories of consumer goods by mid-2025 [3] - Investment in equipment and tools saw a year-on-year increase of 17.3% in the first half of 2025, driven by policies related to "two new" initiatives [3] Employment and Social Policies - The average urban unemployment rate in China was 5.2% in the first half of the year, showing a slight decrease [7] - The government has introduced 19 policy measures to stabilize employment, focusing on supporting businesses and enhancing job training [7] - There is a push for policies that enhance social security and healthcare to further support employment and consumer spending [8] Future Policy Directions - Experts suggest expanding subsidy policies to include sectors like tourism and dining to further stimulate consumption [4][5] - The government aims to optimize the "old for new" consumption policy and enhance the overall consumer environment [5][6] - There is a call for a coordinated approach to fiscal and monetary policies to ensure economic stability and growth [8]

在以旧换新政策的助力下，2025上半年家电市场韧性增长。奥维云网（AVC）推总数据显示，2025年1- 6月中国家电大盘（不含3C）零售额同比增长9.2%。 但是在今年618大促叠加"国补"的时候，有关地方的补贴资金就已经存在耗尽的情况。而在今年1月和4 月就分别下达两批共计1620亿元中央资金，支持地方做好一、二季度消费品以旧换新工作。而随着最新 一批国补资金已下达至地方，国补将继续。 随着今年第三批690亿元超长期特别国债资金的下发，下半年的家电行业又将迎来逆势增长。此前就有 相关人士表示，下半年随着"国补"资金的耗尽，还有提前透支的市场份额，下半年整个家电行业被阴霾 笼罩。但是，随着第三批国补资金的到来，整个家电行业又看到了繁荣的景象。 根据发改委以及财政部的小心，按计划将于10月下达今年第四批690亿元超长期特别国债资金，继续支 持地方实施消费品以旧换新政策；并会同财政部、商务部等部门，督促地方分领域分时段细化资金使用 计划；同时加强产品质量和价格监管，督促参与企业依法合规经营。 近日，国家发展改革委已会同财政部，向地方下达了今年第三批690亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以 旧换新资金，下一步将继续加强 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance has allocated 300 billion yuan in special bonds to support the consumption upgrade policy, with 69 billion yuan recently distributed for the third batch [1][2] - The "old-for-new" policy has led to a significant increase in consumer activity, with 280 million people applying for subsidies, resulting in over 1.6 trillion yuan in sales [2][3] - Companies like Beiding Technology, TCL Smart Home, and Xiugang Glass have reported increased orders and revenue due to the positive impact of the policy [1][3] Group 2 - Beiding Technology reported a 34.05% increase in revenue to 432 million yuan and a 74.92% increase in net profit to 55.83 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [3] - TCL Smart Home emphasized its commitment to high-quality products, benefiting from the increased consumer demand driven by the policy [3] - Foton Motor expects to sell an additional 80,000 to 100,000 vehicles due to the "old-for-new" policy, projecting a net profit increase of 87.5% [3][4]