Market Overview - A-shares experienced a decline in the afternoon but rebounded around 2 PM, with the overall market showing mixed performance, where the Shanghai Composite Index outperformed the Shenzhen market [1] - The market sentiment is characterized by both optimism and caution, with micro-cap stocks showing signs of a bubble while large-cap stocks appear undervalued [1][12] - Despite the lack of systemic risks due to policy and liquidity support, there is a need to digest valuation pressures in the short term, and the current pullback can be seen as a buying opportunity [1][14] Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index slightly increased by 0.17% to 3615.72 points, while the ChiNext Index fell by 1.62% to 2367.68 points [3] - The trading volume showed a slight increase, with a total turnover of 1.87 trillion yuan, up from 1.83 trillion yuan the previous day [3] - A total of 3559 stocks declined, with 9 hitting the daily limit down, while 1713 stocks rose, with 55 hitting the daily limit up [3] Sector Performance - The steel sector rose by over 2%, with companies like Baogang Group and Xining Special Steel hitting the daily limit up [5][6] - The oil and petrochemical sector also saw gains of nearly 2%, while traditional cyclical sectors benefited from industry discipline and capacity optimization expectations [8][9] - Conversely, the electric equipment sector fell by over 2%, with CATL dropping more than 5% [7][8] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a "defensive + buying on dips" strategy, avoiding high-flying stocks without earnings support and focusing on sectors with high earnings certainty [14][16] - The market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the coming weeks, with investors waiting for mid-year performance reports and policy details to be released [1][15] - There is a notable shift in funds from technology growth sectors to dividend-paying sectors, indicating a defensive investment approach [9][12] Future Outlook - The market is likely to continue its slow upward trend, with adjustments expected to be limited [9][14] - The core contradiction in the market is highlighted by the significant inflow of foreign capital, while domestic speculative sentiment appears to be retreating [12] - The focus for the second half of the year will revolve around the effects of "anti-involution" policies and global liquidity changes, with potential opportunities in growth stocks if the Federal Reserve begins to cut rates [16]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities highlights the cyclical nature of the process industry, predicting a significant decline of over 20% in capital expenditure for petrochemicals in 2024. However, investments in the northwest coal chemical sector are expected to bring marginal changes to the new market, while ongoing equipment renewal policies will provide long-term resilience for process industry equipment investments [1][2]. Group 1: Process Industry Overview - The process industry is a foundational sector in China's economy, accounting for approximately 47% of the total industrial output value. It includes various industries such as petrochemicals, chemicals, paper, cement, non-ferrous metals, steel, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverages [1]. - Since 2018, the petrochemical and metallurgy sectors have driven overall investment growth in the process industry, with capital expenditures reaching CNY 298 billion and CNY 278.8 billion respectively by 2023 [2]. Group 2: Investment Trends - In 2024, capital expenditures in traditional sectors like petrochemicals and basic chemicals are projected to decline significantly, with reductions of 20.66% and 19.34%, leading to a combined shortfall exceeding CNY 100 billion [2]. - The northwest coal chemical sector is set to see substantial investment, with total planned investments in Xinjiang coal chemical projects estimated at CNY 557.943 billion, and overall investments in the northwest coal chemical sector expected to reach at least CNY 840.568 billion [2]. Group 3: Equipment and Technology - The process equipment sector is characterized by a combination of dynamic (moving) and static (stationary) equipment, including compressors, pumps, seals, air separation equipment, valves, and control systems, which are essential for the production processes [3]. - Compressors are a core component of process equipment, with the domestic market for high-end turbines exceeding CNY 10 billion. The axial compressor market is dominated by a single player, while the centrifugal compressor market shows a diverse competitive landscape [4]. Group 4: Market Opportunities - The mechanical seal market, crucial for compressors and pumps, is projected to reach CNY 8.336 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.81% over five years. The domestic market leader, Zhongmi Holdings, has maintained a top market share for seven consecutive years [5][6]. - The pump and valve sectors exhibit a "big industry, small company" characteristic, with leading firms like Southern Pump Industry benefiting from diverse applications and stable profit margins [7]. Group 5: Automation and Control Systems - The automation market for instruments and control systems is expected to exceed CNY 100 billion by 2024, with domestic leaders like Chuan Instruments achieving significant market share in high-precision pressure transmitters [9]. - The DCS (Distributed Control System) market is projected to reach CNY 11.757 billion, with domestic market leader Zhongkong Technology holding a 40.36% market share, indicating a strong trend towards domestic automation solutions [9]. Group 6: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on four main investment themes: 1) Major equipment in the coal chemical sector, recommending companies like Hangyang and Shandong Power; 2) Equipment renewal in the existing market, with a focus on Chuan Instruments and Zhongmi Holdings; 3) Overseas market expansion, recommending companies like Fostar and Nuwai; 4) Domestic substitution, with a recommendation for Zhongkong Technology [10].

Report Summary - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The urea market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger today due to the overnight rise in coking coal prices, which is likely to improve the sentiment of the coal chemical industry. However, the supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production close to 200,000 tons at a high level. The inventory of upstream enterprises is still around 750,000 tons, and domestic agricultural demand may gradually enter the off - season. If export demand cannot be supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure. In the short term, policy expectations may adjust repeatedly, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Data Summary 1. Price Changes - **Urea Futures Prices**: UR01 in Shandong increased by 12 yuan/ton (0.68%), decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.12%) in Henan for domestic spot (small - granules), and UR05 increased by 15 yuan/ton (0.84%), UR09 increased by 6 yuan/ton (0.35%) [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - granules)**: Prices in Henan, Hebei, and Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.12%), 10 yuan/ton (-0.57%), and 10 yuan/ton (-0.56%) respectively, while the price in the Northeast remained unchanged [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of anthracite coal, compound fertilizer (45%S), and melamine remained unchanged in most regions [1]. 2. Key Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 on the previous trading day was 1730 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1754 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1723 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1744 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1739 yuan/ton, and the position was 152,980 lots [1]. 3. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 35 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 decreased by 3 yuan/ton [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Given the expected strength of coal and the weakness of crude oil, coal - chemical products will be stronger than oil - chemical products in the future. Chemical products may continue to fluctuate in the near term [2]. - The high -开工 reality dominated by high refinery operations at home and abroad and the weak supply - led expectations will balance each other, resulting in oil price fluctuations [9]. - The high valuation of asphalt futures will decline following the crude oil, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to fall as warehouse receipts increase [10]. - The prices of most chemical products, including methanol, urea, ethylene glycol, etc., are expected to fluctuate in the short term [2][8][9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - Crude oil: High - level pressure, pay attention to geopolitical disturbances, and the price will fluctuate [8][9]. - LPG: The support from the cost side is weakening, the fundamental situation remains loose, and the PG futures may show a weak - side fluctuation [3]. - Asphalt: The spot price of major suppliers has dropped, and the high - valued asphalt futures will decline following the crude oil [10]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: There is a large downward pressure on the futures price [3]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: It will fluctuate weakly following the crude oil [3][12]. - Methanol: Boosted by the macro - environment and coal, it will fluctuate [3][26]. - Urea: The market sentiment has slowed down, and the futures may return to the fundamentals, with short - term pressure [3][27]. - Ethylene glycol: The price will be widely adjusted, and it will seek a direction in the fluctuation [3][20]. - PX: The cost raw materials are weak, but the commodity sentiment is warm [3][14]. - PTA: The commodity sentiment stimulates the futures price to fluctuate more violently [3][15]. - Short - fiber: There are limited industrial contradictions, and it will fluctuate following the cost [3][22]. - Bottle chips: It will fluctuate following the upstream cost [3][24]. - PP: The macro - boost confronts the fundamental pressure, and it will fluctuate [3][31]. - Propylene: It had a remarkable debut, and the PL may fluctuate in the short term [3][32]. - Plastic: Supported by the macro - environment, it will fluctuate [3][30]. - Pure benzene: The balance sheet has improved, but the port has resumed inventory accumulation, and it will trade sideways [3][15]. - Styrene: The trading atmosphere is light, and it will fluctuate within a range [3][19]. - PVC: There is an expectation of cost increase, and it is cautiously optimistic [3][34]. - Caustic soda: Strong expectations but weak reality, it may have a weak rebound [3][35] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period spreads**: For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.78 with a change of - 0.04; Dubai's M1 - M2 spread is 0.69 with a change of 0.03 [37]. - **Basis and warehouse receipts**: Such as asphalt's basis is 251 with a change of 15 and 82300 warehouse receipts; high - sulfur fuel oil's basis is 150 with a change of 39 and 113980 warehouse receipts [38]. - **Inter - variety spreads**: For instance, 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 378 with a change of 60; 1 - month TA - EG spread is 344 with a change of 13 [39] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The content mainly lists various chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data summaries are not provided in a clear and unified manner in the given text

Market Performance - On July 22, A-shares saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.62% to 3581.86 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 0.84% to 11099.83 points, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.61% to 2310.86 points [1] Fund Manager Changes - In the past 30 days (June 22 to July 22), there were 461 fund manager changes across various fund products, with 32 announcements made on July 22 alone [1] - The reasons for these changes included 7 fund managers leaving due to job changes, 2 due to personal reasons, and 1 due to a job change affecting a single fund product [1] Fund Manager Performance - Tao Qi, a fund manager at浦银安盛基金, managed a total fund size of 37.997 billion yuan, with the highest return product being浦银安盛盛泽定开债券, achieving a 12.39% return over 3 years and 53 days [2] - Ye Yuzhen, a fund manager at 申万菱信基金, managed a total fund size of 37.579 billion yuan, with the highest return product being 申万菱信安泰瑞利中短债A, achieving a 20.18% return over 5 years and 323 days [3] Fund Manager Appointments - New fund managers were appointed on July 22, including Chen Xu for 中金优选长兴稳健6个月持有期混合(FOF) and 方笔玥 for 北西留多兴稳健回报一年持有期设合A [4] - The most active fund companies in terms of company research were 华夏基金, 南方基金, 富国基金, and 博时基金, with 43, 39, 38, and 36 companies researched respectively [4] Stock Research Focus - The most researched stock in the past month was 中际旭创, with 75 fund management companies participating in the research, followed by 新易盛 and 迈威生物 with 66 and 57 companies respectively [5][6] - In the last week (July 15 to July 22), 中际旭创 remained the most researched stock, with the same number of participating fund institutions [6]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Urea: Cautiously bullish [1] - Soda Ash: Sideways [1] - Glass: Sideways [1] Group 2: Core Views - Urea: On Wednesday, the spot price of urea strengthened slightly, with prices in Shandong and Henan rising to 1,840 yuan/ton. The daily output was 19.91 tons, a daily decrease of 0.03 tons. The Indian tender provides support, but the final impact needs further observation. The market remains firm, and subsequent focus should be on the final tender price and export policy [1]. - Soda Ash: On Wednesday, the spot price of soda ash was still being adjusted downward in some areas. The trading sentiment was subdued, but the futures market rose for several days. The industry's operating rate reached 82.58%. The supply and demand of the spot market are weak, and the price is in a downward range. Attention should be paid to inventory data, market sentiment, and downstream production changes [1]. - Glass: On Wednesday, the spot price of glass remained stable at 1,173 yuan/ton. The supply was stable, with a daily melting volume of 15.84 tons. The demand continued to follow up, but the trading atmosphere declined slightly. The market drive is limited, and the price needs more positive factors to rise [1]. Group 3: Market Information Urea - On July 9, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts was 2,245, a decrease of 362 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [4]. - On July 9, the daily output of the urea industry was 19.91 tons, a decrease of 0.03 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 2.02 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 85.98%, a 3.36 - percentage - point increase from 82.62% in the same period last year [4]. - On July 9, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions increased, with Shandong and Henan at 1,840 yuan/ton, up 20 and 30 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - As of July 9, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises was 96.77 tons, a decrease of 5.08 tons (-4.99%) from the previous week [5]. Soda Ash & Glass - On July 9, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 3,736, a decrease of 297 from the previous trading day, with 476 valid forecasts; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 799, a decrease of 3 from the previous trading day [7]. - On July 9, the spot prices of soda ash in some regions decreased. For example, the light soda ash in North China dropped by 20 yuan/ton, and in East China, it dropped by 30 yuan/ton [7]. - On July 9, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 85.58%, up from 82.2% the previous working day [8]. - On July 9, the average price of the float glass market was 1,173 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the daily output was 15.84 tons, also unchanged [8]. Group 4: Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts showing the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and price spreads of urea and soda ash futures, as well as the spot price trends of urea and soda ash, and the futures price spreads between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash [10][11][15][19][20][22]. Group 5: Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin, the research director of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on sugar industry research and has won many awards [25]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for researching futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass and has won multiple honors [25]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [25].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the upward trend of the stock index is not yet over, with recent geopolitical issues causing only a slight pullback in mid-June, followed by a notable increase in A-shares as geopolitical tensions eased [3] - As of June 27, 2025, the best-performing sectors include banking and telecommunications, while food and beverage and coal industries show weaker performance [3] - The market's observation sentiment has improved with the index rebound, as evidenced by the annualized basis of IM stock index futures decreasing from a previous high of 17% to around 11% [3] Group 2 - The report recommends investing in dividend-paying construction state-owned enterprises at valuation bottoms, driven by market capitalization management and state-owned enterprise reform policies [7] - The report highlights the growth of China's foreign contracting business, with a revenue of 445.08 billion RMB from January to May 2025, marking a 6.6% year-on-year increase, and a new contract amount of 709.08 billion RMB, up 14.4% [8] - The report suggests investing in companies within the new productivity construction industry chain, which combines dividends and growth potential, particularly in areas like low-altitude economy and AI [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - After the cease - fire in the Middle East, geopolitical speculation may come to an end. In the future, two points need attention: the impact of coal market sentiment on coal - chemical industry may slow down, and urea demand in the next two months is expected to be good. Wait for the spot price to fall and stabilize before looking for long - position opportunities [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On June 24, 2025, the closing prices of UR01, UR05, UR09 were 1667 yuan/ton, 1686 yuan/ton, 1698 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 19 yuan/ton (- 1.13%), - 17 yuan/ton (- 1.00%), - 13 yuan/ton (- 0.76%) compared to June 23. Domestic spot prices in different regions also showed certain changes, such as a - 20 yuan/ton (- 1.05%) change in the Northeast [1] Basis and Spread - On June 24, the basis of Shandong spot - UR was 64 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton compared to June 23. The 01 - 05 spread was - 19 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream coal prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1080 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively. Downstream, the prices of some products like compound fertilizer and melamine were mostly stable, while the price of compound fertilizer in Shandong decreased by 17 yuan/ton (- 0.33%) [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1679 yuan/ton, the highest was 1726 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1672 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1698 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1698 yuan/ton, and the position was 247071 lots [1] Trading Strategy - Wait for the spot price to fall and stabilize before looking for long - position opportunities. Consider the risk of changes in export policies [1]

| | | | | 尿素早评20250623:关注回落后的做多机会 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 6月20日 6月19日 | 单位 | | | 变化值 | 変化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 民素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1689.00 1820.00 1680.00 | 1725.00 1840.00 1730.00 | -36.00 -20.00 -50.00 | -2.09% -1.09% -2.89% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1709.00 | 1737.00 | -28.00 | -1.61% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1730.00 | 1780.00 | -50.00 | -2.81% | | | 国内现货价格 | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1820.00 | 1830.00 | -10.00 | -0.55% | | | (小顆粒) | 河北 | 元/吨 ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250619: 现货成交有好转 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日度 | 变化值 6月18日 6月17日 单位 | | | | (绝对值) | 変化值 (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 民素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 山东 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1736.00 1830.00 | 1726.00 1739.00 1810.00 | 10.00 20.00 | 0.58% 1.10% 2.37% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1744.00 | | 5.00 | 0.29% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1789.00 | 1774.00 | 15.00 | 0.85% | | 国内现货价格 | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1730.00 | 1690.00 | 40.00 | | | | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1820.00 | 1790.00 | 30.00 | 1.68% | | | (小顆粒) | 河北 | 元/吨 | 1830.00 | 180 ...