Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Report's Core View - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, and inventory data of polysilicon futures and spot markets, as well as the news of market regulators'约谈 of photovoltaic companies [1][2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Prices - PS2602 closed at 50,965 with a 1.73% increase; PS2603 at 50,990 with a 1.03% increase; PS2604 at 51,145 with a 1.52% increase; PS2605 at 51,280 with a 1.18% increase [1]. Spreads - The spread between PS2602 - PS2603 was -25, up 345; PS2603 - PS2604 was -155, down 245; PS2604 - PS2605 was -135, up 205 [1]. Spot Prices - The average price of N - type dense material was 53.25, and N - type mixed material was 52.5 [1][2]. Inventory - Polysilicon inventory was 0.9 million tons per week, silicon wafer inventory was 26.78 GW per week, and registered warehouse receipts were 6,850 tons per day [2]. Market News - Market regulators have约谈ed 6 photovoltaic industry leaders and the industry association, requiring them not to agree on production capacity, sales prices, etc., and to submit written rectification measures by January 20 [2].

| | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 24215 | -75 | 125 | 2370 | 3125 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 24380 | ー | ー | ー | ー | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 3196 | 22 | 30 | 313 | 413 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 510890 | 82824 | 86203 | 268966 | 351167 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 322087 | -18488 | -15010 | 33254 | 118807 | | | 电解铝 | LME铝3M成交量 | 24952 | -3502 | 7193 | 2823 | -13327 | | | | LME注销仓单占比 | 4. 55% | -0. 34% | -2. 20% | -8. 34% | -16. 12% | | | | LME铝cash-3M价差 | -3. 75 ...

成文日期：20260122 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:棕榈? 研究员：游镇齐（从业资格号：F3012673;投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012990) 棕榈油期货日报 1 期货市场 棕榈油期货主力合约 P2605 收盘价 8,944 元/吨,较前一交易日 上涨 1.59%；开盘价 8,850 元/吨,最高价 8,964元/吨,最低价 8,850 元/吨，成交量 502,993 手，持仓量 467,244 手，成交额 448.37 亿元。 数据来源：wh6，国金期货 1: 棕榈油主力合约分时图 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 前。 出口数据显著改善：1 月 1 日至 20 日，马来西亚棕榈油出口量 环比增长 8.64%–11.4%,出口回升反映印度、中国等主要进口国节 前备货需求增强、库存去化预期提升。 国内库存高位但边际缓和：截至 2026 年 1 月 21 日，全国棕榈 油商业库存为 77.60 万吨，较前一周微增 0.6 万吨，同比仍高出 31 万吨,但库存增速放缓,叠加进口成本倒挂收窄 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The glass market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The supply side has an expectation of further contraction, but the real - estate demand has not improved. Pay attention to the trend near the pressure level and subsequent macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures Market**: The glass main contract opened high and moved higher, with an intraday volatile and strong trend. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band shows a tightening signal for short - term fluctuations. The intraday pressure is near the 60 - day moving average of the daily line, and the support is near the middle track line. The trading volume increased by 322,000 lots compared with yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 84,061 lots. The intraday high was 1092, the low was 1059, and the closing price was 1087, up 26 yuan/ton or 2.45% compared with the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: In North China, manufacturers' overall shipments are good due to mid - stream pick - up and pre - holiday stocking; in East China, the trading atmosphere has significantly slowed down, with weak purchasing enthusiasm and a strong wait - and - see atmosphere; in Central China, the situation is okay, with most prices raised by 40, and downstream purchases are rational; in South China, except for individual prices rising by 20, other enterprises remain stable [1] - **Basis**: The spot price in North China is 1010, and the basis is - 77 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 22, the total output of float glass this week was 1.0552 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.95%. The industry average start - up rate was 71.62%, a month - on - month increase of 0.14%; the average capacity utilization rate was 75.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.34%. There was no production line water - release or ignition this week, and the daily output remained stable [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.216 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 203,000 heavy boxes or 0.38%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.74%. The inventory days were 23.1 days, an increase of 0.1 day compared with the previous period. This week, the downstream purchasing sentiment was average, and individual shipments were weak due to weather, resulting in an overall increase in inventory compared with the previous period [2] - **Demand**: The average number of order days for national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, a month - on - month increase of 7.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.4%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the deep - processing order trends in the north and south regions are differentiated. The executable days of orders in the south have slightly increased, and some orders can last for more than 20 days; the orders in the north and central regions have declined [2] - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 158.69 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.71 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 65.11 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.9 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was - 1.78 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.71 yuan/ton [2][3] Main Logic Summary - The long - term losses of glass production lines have accelerated the capacity clearance of some enterprises, and there are still some production line cold - repair plans before the Spring Festival, so the supply side is expected to further contract. However, the real - estate development investment and capital availability this month have continued to decline year - on - year, and the completion and new construction are weak, with the real - estate demand still not improving. Overall, the real - estate data continues to decline, and the market's rigid demand is accelerating to weaken near the end of the month. A production line in Gansu was restarted and ignited today, and the anti - involution voice emerged again last week, with the sentiment strengthening and the market rebounding. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term. First, pay attention to the trend near the pressure level. Subsequently, pay attention to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC industry has high supply pressure despite a slight decline in capacity utilization due to an increase in temporary shutdowns. The terminal real estate and infrastructure sectors are in the low - temperature off - season, and with the approaching Spring Festival, downstream enterprises are on holiday, so the demand from pre - festival promotions is not sustainable. Short - term export expectations are good but have limited impact on domestic supply - demand contradictions, and inventory is expected to continue rising. The supply of upstream calcium carbide is recovering, which may weaken the cost support for the calcium carbide method. As the previous macro - level positive factors are digested, PVC pricing may return to fundamentals, and V2605 is expected to be strong first and then weak. The daily K - line of V2605 is recommended to pay attention to the support around 4850 and the resistance around 5000 [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4959 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 38 yuan. The trading volume is 1323485 lots, up 66182 lots. The open interest is 1095101 lots, up 25832 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 1075078 lots, down 2464 lots; the short positions are 1164374 lots, up 15968 lots; and the net long positions are - 89296 lots, down 18432 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4845 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4656.54 yuan/ton, up 67.31 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4835 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4664.38 yuan/ton, up 51.88 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 680 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and in Southeast Asia is 660 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The FOB price in Northwest Europe is 670 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis of PVC is - 209 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2750 yuan/ton (unchanged), in North China is 2715 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Northwest China is 2561 yuan/ton (unchanged). The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton (unchanged). The VCM CFR Far East intermediate price is 402 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and in Southeast Asia is 433 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars. The EDC CFR Far East intermediate price is 189 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and in Southeast Asia is 194 US dollars/ton (unchanged) [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 78.74%, down 0.89 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 80%, up 0.02 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 75.74%, down 3.05 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 57.65 tons, up 1.49 tons, including 52.74 tons in East China, up 1.12 tons, and 4.91 tons in South China, up 0.37 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.45. The cumulative value of newly - started housing area is 58769.96 million square meters, up 5313.26 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 659890.29 million square meters, up 3824.09 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 44895.98 billion yuan, up 2871.41 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 20.19%, up 0.4 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 20.8%, up 0.31 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 20.41%, up 1.6 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 20.46%, up 1.67 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - From January 17th to 23rd, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.89% to 78.74%. The downstream product operating rate of PVC increased by 0.95% to 44.86%, among which the pipe operating rate increased by 1.6% to 37%, and the profile operating rate increased by 1.61% to 31.52%. As of January 22nd, the PVC social inventory was 117.75 tons, up 2.92% from the previous week. From January 16th to 22nd, the average national cost of the calcium carbide method increased to 5175 yuan/ton, and the average national cost of the ethylene method decreased to 4924 yuan/ton. The profit of the calcium carbide method decreased to - 800 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ethylene method increased to - 49 yuan/ton [2]

期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 26 日 铝：偏强震荡 氧化铝：底部盘整 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 期货研究 【综合快讯】 1. 美国 1 月标普全球制造业、服务业 PMI 均扩张，但略低于预期。美国 1 月标普全球制造业 PMI 略高 于 12 月，服务业 PMI 持平于 12 月，不过均小幅低于预期。美国商业活动在 1 月仍保持增长，但增速相较 2025 年下半年常见的扩张速度明显偏弱。制造业增长加快并超过服务业，但制造业和服务业的潜在订单增 长近期均有所放缓。（华尔街见闻） | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 24290 | 235 | 365 | 2370 | 3610 | | | 沪铝主力合 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX, PTA, MEG, short - fiber, bottle - chip, LPG, propylene, fuel - oil, low - sulfur fuel - oil: Bullish trend [2][73][74] - Synthetic rubber: Bullish but with marginal valuation pressure [2] - LLDPE, PP, glass, soda: Bearish trend [2] - Caustic soda, urea, benzene - ethylene, container shipping index (European line), PVC, offset printing paper, pure benzene: Neutral trend [2] Core Views - The prices of most energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as capital inflows, geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. For some products, capital plays a significant role in driving up prices, while for others, geopolitical risks and supply - demand imbalances are the main influencing factors [10][11][13] Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Before the festival, the unilateral trend is bullish. 3 - 5 reverse spreads and 5 - 9 positive spreads are recommended. The current price increase is mainly driven by capital rather than fundamentals. The domestic and Asian device operating rates have slightly decreased, and it is in a state of inventory accumulation [10] - **PTA**: Before the festival, the unilateral trend is bullish. A 5 - 9 positive spread is recommended. High processing fees may lead to the resumption of production of PTA devices. It is also in a state of inventory accumulation [11] - **MEG**: The trend remains bullish, and a 5 - 9 positive spread is recommended. The device operating rate has slightly decreased, and the supply will marginally decline in the future. Although it is in an inventory - accumulation pattern, the overall trend is still bullish due to short - covering and capital inflows [12][13] Synthetic Rubber - It runs bullishly, but attention should be paid to marginal valuation pressure. The short - term strength is due to capital inflows and cost - push from butadiene. However, some valuation indicators are approaching their boundaries [14][16] LLDPE - The risk preference continues to spread, and the basis weakens significantly. Although the raw - material oil price is strong, the ethylene monomer link weakens. The supply pressure in the medium - term remains due to high production capacity and weakening demand [17][18] PP - The production scheduling remains at a low level, and the profit repair is limited. The cost end is strong, but the demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices under deep losses [20][21] Caustic Soda - It fluctuates at a low level. Before the Spring Festival, there is pressure to reduce inventory, and the price continues to decline. The long - term contract may face cost increases and large - scale production cuts [23][25] Glass - The original - sheet price is stable. The market demand is coming to an end, the rigid demand shrinks rapidly, and the inventory is under pressure. Some winter - storage and inventory - transfer policies may be introduced next month [28][29] Methanol - It fluctuates with support. The short - term is expected to be strong due to geopolitical conflicts and inventory improvement expectations. However, the over - speculation may be restricted by MTO plant maintenance and inventory de - stocking [32][35] Urea - The oscillation center moves up. Driven by the warm sentiment in the chemical sector, neutral fundamentals, and strong spring - plowing expectations, the price center slowly rises. The upper and lower bounds of the valuation are also gradually moving up [37][39] Benzene - Ethylene - It oscillates bullishly. The short - term market sentiment is high, but downstream profits are squeezed, and the inventory is in a high - production and high - inventory pattern. The price is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern [40][41] Soda - The spot market has little change. The domestic soda market is weakly stable, with flexible price transactions. The supply is adjusted at a high level, and the downstream demand is average [43][45] LPG, Propylene - **LPG**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances are strong. The price is affected by geopolitics and supply - demand relationships [48] - **Propylene**: The trend is bullish, but the upward momentum slows down [2] PVC - It oscillates within a range. The short - term is supported by the bullish sentiment of chemical products, but the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change. The short - term futures contract faces high - operation and weak - demand situations [56][57] Fuel - Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel - Oil - **Fuel - oil**: It rises strongly, and the volatility continues to increase [59] - **Low - sulfur fuel - oil**: It continues the upward trend, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has fallen to a low point again [59] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is in an oscillatory market. The 04 short positions should be gradually reduced and observed, and the 10 short positions can be held as appropriate [61] Short - Fiber, Bottle - Chip - **Short - fiber**: The short - term trend is bullish. The futures price has risen significantly, and the spot price has been adjusted upwards [73][74] - **Bottle - chip**: The short - term trend is bullish. The upstream raw - material futures continue to rise strongly, and the factory has continuously raised the quotation [73][74] Offset Printing Paper - It is advisable to wait and see. The market price is stable, the supply is abundant, and the demand is weak [76][77][79] Pure Benzene - It oscillates bullishly. The inventory has decreased, and the spot price has risen [80][81]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - In the week of January 20 - 23, 2026, US soybean futures prices rebounded slightly due to positive factors such as China - US official talks, dry weather in Argentine production areas, and a good weekly export sales report. The weekly increase of the main March 2026 contract of US soybeans was 1.07%, and that of the main March 2026 contract of US soybean meal was 3.52% [1]. - In the week of January 19 - 23, 2026, domestic soybean meal futures prices rebounded and fluctuated, and soybean No.1 futures prices rose slightly. The soybean meal price increase was driven by the resolution of the China - Canada trade issue and the rise in US soybean prices. The soybean No.1 price increase was due to the stable - to - strong spot price and the improved sentiment in the soybean market. The weekly increase of the main May 2026 contract of soybean meal was 0.88%, and that of the main May 2026 contract of soybean No.1 was 0.93% [1]. - In the week of January 26 - 30, 2026, it is expected that the futures prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean No.1 will operate within a range. For soybean meal, the dry and hot weather in Argentine production areas has a positive impact, while the expected bumper harvest in Brazil limits the price rebound space. For soybean No.1, the spot price is stable, and the futures price is affected by the overall sentiment in the soybean market and policy sentiment [5]. Group 3: Summary of International Soybean Market Fundamentals - In the week of January 15, 2026, the net sales of US soybeans increased month - on - month, which is a positive factor. The weekly net sales of the current 2025/26 marketing year were about 245 million tons, and the total net sales of the current and next marketing years were about 246 million tons. The net sales to China in the current 2025/26 crop year were about 130 million tons, with a cumulative sales of about 942 million tons [1]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans increased slightly week - on - week, which is a positive factor. As of the week of January 23, 2026, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 delivery decreased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost increased slightly week - on - week, and the average crushing profit decreased week - on - week [1]. - The early harvest of Brazilian soybeans has a limited impact for now. As of the week of January 15, 2026, the harvest progress of 2025/26 Brazilian soybeans was 2%, compared with 0.6% the previous week and 1.7% in the same period last year. The harvest progress in Mato Grosso is leading, while that in Paraná is behind the historical average [1]. - According to the weather forecast on January 23, 2026, in the next two weeks (January 24 - February 7, 2026), the precipitation and temperature in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil are basically normal (less precipitation and slightly higher temperature in Rio Grande do Sul), and the precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Argentina is less and the temperature is higher. The dry and hot weather in Argentine production areas has a positive impact and needs continuous attention [1]. Group 4: Summary of Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - In the week of January 19 - 23, 2026, the domestic soybean meal spot price decreased slightly. The trading volume decreased week - on - week, with the average daily trading volume of mainstream oil mills at about 190,000 tons, compared with about 670,000 tons the previous week [2][3]. - The提货 volume increased week - on - week, with the average daily提货 volume of major oil mills at about 188,000 tons, compared with about 186,000 tons the previous week [3]. - The basis of soybean meal decreased week - on - week. As of the week of January 23, 2026, the average weekly basis of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was about 347 yuan/ton, compared with about 372 yuan/ton the previous week and about 300 yuan/ton in the same period last year [3]. - The inventory of soybean meal decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year. As of the week of January 16, 2026, the inventory of mainstream oil mills was about 840,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of about 9% and a year - on - year increase of about 68% [3]. - The soybean crushing volume increased week - on - week and is expected to increase next week. As of the week of January 23, 2026, the weekly soybean crushing volume in China was about 2.1 million tons, with an operating rate of about 58%. Next week (January 24 - 30, 2026), the expected soybean crushing volume is about 2.38 million tons, with an operating rate of 65% [3]. Group 5: Summary of Domestic Soybean No.1 Spot Market - In the week of January 19 - 23, 2026, the domestic soybean No.1 spot price was stable - to - strong. The purchase price of clean soybeans in some northeastern regions was in the range of 4,280 - 4,380 yuan/ton, the purchase price in some inland regions was in the range of 4,860 - 5,100 yuan/ton, and the selling price of edible soybeans in the sales areas was in the range of 4,660 - 4,840 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0 - 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [4]. - The reluctance of farmers in the northeastern production areas to sell has eased, and some direct - affiliated warehouses have completed the purchase of domestic soybeans. Most traders are cautiously waiting and selling their inventories to lock in profits [4]. - There is a replenishment demand in the sales areas, and the soybean price may rise to catch up. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand side has a replenishment demand, and there is a possibility of a price increase in the market [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The glass market is expected to experience short - term fluctuations. Although there is an expectation of further contraction in supply due to long - term losses in glass production lines and cold - repair plans before the Spring Festival, the real - estate demand has not improved, and the decline in off - season demand may exceed the supply contraction. The market sentiment has strengthened, leading to a rebound in the market, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the trend near the pressure level, as well as macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures market**: The glass main contract showed a slightly stronger intraday oscillation. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band contracted, indicating a short - term oscillation signal. The intraday pressure was near the middle line of the Bollinger Band, and the support was near the lower line. The trading volume increased by 17,568 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest increased by 18,652 lots. The intraday high was 1070, the low was 1051, and the closing price was 1064, up 14 yuan/ton or 1.33% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot market**: In North China, the market was stable, with manufacturers having decent sales and downstream purchases being rational; in East China, the market was dull with mainly rigid - demand purchases, and some manufacturers offered discounts, with a general trading atmosphere; in Central China, there were few changes, with cautious purchases and stable prices; in South China, overall transactions were good, and some prices were increased [1] - **Basis**: The spot price in North China was 1010, and the basis was - 54 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 22, the total output of float glass this week was 1.0552 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.95%. The industry's average opening rate was 71.62%, a week - on - week increase of 0.14%; the average capacity utilization rate was 75.57%, a week - on - week increase of 0.34%. There was no production line water - tapping or ignition this week, and the daily output remained stable [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.216 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 203,000 weight boxes or 0.38%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.74%. The inventory days were 23.1 days, an increase of 0.1 day from the previous period. This week, the downstream's purchasing sentiment was average, and some areas were affected by the weather with weak sales, resulting in an overall inventory increase [2] - **Demand**: The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 7.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.4%. As the Spring Festival approached, the deep - processing orders in the north and south regions showed different trends. The executable days of southern orders increased slightly, and some orders could last for more than 20 days, while the orders in the northern and central regions declined [2] - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 158.69 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.71 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 65.11 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.9 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was - 1.78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.71 yuan/ton [2][3] Main Logic Summary - The long - term losses of glass production lines have accelerated the clearance of some enterprises' production capacity, and there are still cold - repair plans for some production lines before the Spring Festival, so there is an expectation of further supply contraction. However, the real - estate development investment and capital availability have continued to decline year - on - year this month, and the completion and new construction are weak, with the real - estate demand still not improving. Overall, the real - estate data is still deteriorating, and the market's rigid demand is accelerating to weaken at the end of the month. Although there is still an expectation of cold - repair for a few production lines, the supply contraction may not be able to offset the decline in off - season demand. The anti - involution sentiment has strengthened, leading to a market rebound. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the trend near the pressure level. Future attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the soda ash industry is "short - term shock", indicating a volatile trend in the short term [1]. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the soda ash production capacity utilization rate remains high, and with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output is increasing. There is an expectation of cold - repair of glass production lines near the end of the month, which may further weaken the rigid demand for soda ash. Although the anti - involution news has strengthened market sentiment and led to a short - term rebound in the market, in the medium - to - long - term, the supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, intensifying the supply - demand contradiction. Despite high exports alleviating some pressure, the high inventory still restricts price rebound. The short - term price is likely to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the return of the market to the weak fundamentals after the sentiment fades. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 (Market Review) - **Futures Market**: The main soda ash futures contract strengthened with fluctuations during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands' three tracks contracted, indicating a short - term shock signal. The intraday resistance was near the 60 - day moving average, and the short - term support was near the 5 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 77,654 lots compared to the previous day, while the open interest decreased by 17,937 lots. The intraday high was 1200, the low was 1178, and the closing price was 1198, up 24 yuan/ton or 2.04% from the previous settlement price [1]. - **Spot Market**: The spot market was slightly stable with fluctuations. The enterprise equipment had a narrow - range fluctuation, and Jiangsu Huachang had a short - term shutdown. The supply was adjusted at a high level. Downstream demand was mediocre, with poor purchasing enthusiasm, and buyers mainly replenished inventory at low prices [1]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 52 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 22, the domestic soda ash output was 771,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3600 tons or 0.46%. The light soda ash output was 358,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2700 tons, and the heavy soda ash output was 412,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 900 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.42%, down 0.40 percentage points from the previous week. The ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 87.69%, down 2.27 percentage points, and the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 77.99%, down 0.89 percentage points. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 89.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.42% [2]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5212 million tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons or 1.49% from Monday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 82,450 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1900 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 696,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24,900 tons. Compared with last Thursday, it decreased by 53,800 tons or 3.42%. Among them, the light soda ash inventory decreased by 12,500 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory decreased by 41,300 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1.4295 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9170 tons or 6.41% [2]. - **Demand**: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 825,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.80%. The overall shipment rate was 106.98%, a month - on - month increase of 7.27%. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, with poor purchasing enthusiasm. Buyers mainly consumed inventory and made low - price rigid - demand purchases [3]. - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit of the co - production method (double - ton) was - 40 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.09%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda method was - 96.3 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous month. During the week, the raw material salt price was stable, and the thermal coal price fluctuated downward, resulting in a slight decline in costs [3]. Main Logic Summary - The soda ash production capacity utilization rate remains high, and new production capacity is gradually being released, leading to an increase in overall output. There is a cold - repair expectation for glass production lines near the end of the month, which may further weaken the rigid demand for soda ash. Although the anti - involution news has strengthened market sentiment and caused a short - term rebound in the market, in the medium - to - long - term, the supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, intensifying the supply - demand contradiction. High exports alleviate some pressure, but the high inventory still restricts price rebound. The short - term price may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the return of the market to the weak fundamentals after the sentiment fades. It is necessary to continue to monitor downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment [4].