Monetary Supply - As of the end of June, the broad money supply (M2) reached 330.29 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.3% [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 113.95 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, marking the highest growth since May 2023 [1] - The net cash injection in the first half of the year amounted to 363.3 billion yuan, indicating a stable liquidity environment [1] Credit Growth - In June, new RMB loans totaled 2.24 trillion yuan, significantly increasing by 1.62 trillion yuan month-on-month and 110 billion yuan year-on-year, stabilizing the loan balance growth rate at 7.1% [2] - For the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, with corporate loans showing a recovery in growth [2] - The increase in corporate short-term loans by 4.9 billion yuan and the end of a four-month decline in medium to long-term loans indicate an improvement in credit structure [2] Social Financing - In June, new social financing (社融) reached 4.20 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 1.91 trillion yuan and a year-on-year increase of 900.8 billion yuan, pushing the social financing stock growth rate to 8.9% [3] - The growth in social financing was primarily driven by government bond financing, which increased by 503.2 billion yuan year-on-year [3] - The continuous year-on-year increase in social financing for seven consecutive months reflects the ongoing support of financial policies for the real economy, with expectations for further growth in July [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support economic recovery, with a focus on maintaining liquidity and promoting reasonable growth in money and credit supply [1][2][5]. Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC has introduced a series of monetary and credit policies, including a package of 10 measures announced on May 7, aimed at enhancing liquidity and supporting the economy [6][7]. - As of the end of June, the social financing scale and broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.9% and 8.3% year-on-year, respectively, with increases of 0.8 and 2.1 percentage points compared to the previous year [1][2]. Financial Support for the Real Economy - In the first half of the year, the incremental social financing scale reached 22.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.74 trillion yuan year-on-year, indicating that the financial system is effectively meeting the funding needs of the real economy [2][5]. - The PBOC emphasizes the need for time to observe the effects of implemented monetary policies and will continue to assess their transmission and effectiveness [2][5]. Focus Areas for Future Policies - The PBOC plans to maintain a balance between supporting the real economy and ensuring the health of the financial system, with a focus on sectors such as technology innovation, consumption expansion, and support for small and micro enterprises [9][10]. - The PBOC aims to enhance the effectiveness of financial services to the real economy by improving the policy framework and ensuring that monetary policy tools are effectively utilized [9][10]. Currency Exchange Rate Management - The PBOC is committed to maintaining the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate while preventing excessive fluctuations, with a focus on stabilizing the currency at a reasonable equilibrium level [10][11]. - Recent trends show that the RMB has remained stable against the USD, with fluctuations managed effectively since early April [10][11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Although the US has restarted the tariff war, the market has become somewhat insensitive after previous fluctuations in the trade situation. With the release of semi - annual performance forecasts of listed companies, the market is optimistic about their first - half profits. The effects of loose monetary policies are evident, and the improvement in external demand has led to positive GDP expectations. The market anticipates positive second - quarter economic data, and the fundamental recovery supports the stock market. As the Politburo meeting at the end of July approaches, market bulls may pre - arrange, driving the stock market up. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Content a. Futures Contract Data - IF主力合约（2509）最新价3985.8，环比下降13.0；IF次主力合约（2507）最新价4009.0，环比下降11.6；IH主力合约（2509）最新价2747.4，环比下降12.8；IH次主力合约（2507）最新价2751.8，环比下降23.2；IC主力合约（2509）最新价5897.6，环比下降18.0；IC次主力合约（2507）最新价6008.4，环比下降19.0；IM主力合约（2509）最新价6302.2，环比下降13.0；IM次主力合约（2507）最新价6442.2，环比下降13.0 [2] - IC - IF当月合约价差1257.2，环比下降9.0；IF - IH当月合约价差1999.4，环比下降2.8；IC - IH当月合约价差3256.6，环比下降11.8；IM - IC当月合约价差433.8，环比下降5.0；IM - IH当月合约价差3690.4，环比下降7.8；IM - IF当月合约价差2433.2，环比下降2.0 [2] - IF下季 - 当月为 - 23.2，环比下降4.8；IF当季 - 当月为 - 53.8，环比下降1.4；IH下季 - 当月为 - 4.4，环比下降8.2；IH当季 - 当月为 - 1.8，环比上升0.2；IC下季 - 当月为 - 110.8，环比下降4.8；IC当季 - 当月为 - 233.8，环比下降7.0；IM下季 - 当月为 - 140.0，环比下降4.6；IM当季 - 当月为 - 321.4，环比下降4.6 [2] - IF前20名净持仓为 - 29,007.00，环比下降735.0；IH前20名净持仓环比上升2211.0；IC前20名净持仓为 - 11,851.00，环比上升885.0；IM前20名净持仓环比上升1903.0 [2] - IF主力合约基差环比上升2.9；IH主力合约基差环比上升1.0；IC主力合约基差环比下降6.2；IM主力合约基差环比上升1.2 [2] b. Market Sentiment Data - A股成交额（日）为14,809.22亿元，环比上升20.81；两融余额（前一交易日）为18,757.94亿元，环比下降2556.88；逆回购（到期量，操作量）为2455.04亿元，环比上升432.40；北向成交合计（前一交易日）为 - 1065.0亿元，环比上升2262.0；MLF（续作量，净投放）为 - 405.03亿元；主力资金（昨日，今日）为 - 119.66亿元 [2] - Shibor（日）为1.415%，环比上升0.082；上涨股票比例（日）为58.69%，环比上升4.03；IO平值看涨期权隐含波动率环比下降8.00；IO平值看涨期权收盘价（2507）为28.80，环比下降0.59；IO平值看跌期权隐含波动率环比下降1.20；IO平值看跌期权收盘价（2507）为18.40，环比下降0.59；成交量PCR环比上升0.01；沪深300指数20日波动率为8.69%，环比上升13.64；持仓量PCR为74.76%，环比下降0.36 [2] - 技术面：Wind市场强弱分析中，全部A股为5.90，环比上升0.50；资金面为6.00，环比下降0.60 [2] c. Industry News - On July 14, the General Administration of Customs released data showing that in June, China's exports (in RMB) increased by 7.2% year - on - year (previous value: 6.3%), imports increased by 2.3% (previous value: - 2.1%), and the trade surplus was 8259.7 billion yuan (previous value: 7435.6 billion yuan). In the first half of the year, exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year, imports decreased by 2.7%, and the trade surplus was 42125.1 billion yuan. In June, exports (in US dollars) increased by 5.8% year - on - year (previous value: 4.8%), imports increased by 1.1% (previous value: - 3.4%), and the trade surplus was 1147.7 billion US dollars (previous value: 1032.2 billion US dollars). In the first half of the year, exports increased by 5.9% year - on - year, imports decreased by 3.9%, and the trade surplus was 5859.6 billion US dollars [2] - On July 14, the central bank announced that in the first half of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of June 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. At the end of June, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.18 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12%. In the first half of the year, 363.3 billion yuan of cash was net - injected [2] - As of 21:00 on July 13, 510 A - share listed companies had released their semi - annual performance forecasts for 2025, of which 301 were positive, with a positive forecast ratio of about 59.02% [2] - According to data from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, foreign capital has increased its holdings of A - shares for two consecutive quarters. As of the end of the second quarter of this year, north - bound funds held 2907 stocks, with a total market value of about 2.29 trillion yuan. Compared with the end of 2024, the market value of north - bound funds' holdings increased by 87.1 billion yuan; compared with the first quarter of 2025, it increased by more than 50 billion yuan [2] d. Market Performance - A - share major indexes showed mixed trends. The Shanghai Composite Index was slightly stronger in a volatile manner, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index were slightly weaker. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.11%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.45%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased significantly. Most industry sectors rose, with the machinery and equipment sector leading the gains and the real estate sector leading the losses [2] e. Upcoming Key Data - July 15, 10:00: China's June fixed - asset investment, industrial added value of large - scale industries, total retail sales of consumer goods, and unemployment rate; second - quarter GDP - July 15, 20:30: US June CPI and core CPI - July 16, 20:30: US June PPI and core PPI - July 17, 20:30: US June import price index, retail sales, and core retail sales [3]

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for the first half of 2025 indicates a solid growth in social financing and loans, reflecting the effectiveness of monetary policy in supporting the real economy [2][6]. Group 1: Social Financing and Loan Growth - As of the end of June, the cumulative increase in social financing reached 22.83 trillion yuan, which is 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1]. - The new RMB loans amounted to 12.92 trillion yuan, with a monthly increase of nearly 2.24 trillion yuan in June [1][6]. - The stock of social financing grew by 8.9% year-on-year, while the broad money supply (M2) increased by 8.3% [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Support - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to utilize both total and structural monetary policy tools to support the economy, focusing on technology innovation and consumption [2][7]. - The PBOC has implemented 12 reserve requirement ratio cuts and 9 interest rate reductions since 2020, leading to a significant decrease in loan market rates [8]. - The current monetary policy is described as "moderately loose," with financial growth rates outpacing economic growth [9][12]. Group 3: Government Bonds and Financing - Government bond net financing was a major driver of social financing growth, with a cumulative net financing of 7.66 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 4.32 trillion yuan year-on-year [3]. - The issuance of government bonds has accelerated, with the pace of issuance in 2023 outpacing that of the previous year by approximately 10 to 15 percentage points [3]. Group 4: Loan Composition and Economic Activity - Corporate loans accounted for 89.5% of the total new loans, with a significant increase in medium to long-term loans, indicating stable financial support for the real economy [6]. - Household loans increased by 1.17 trillion yuan, reflecting ongoing support for individual businesses and small enterprises [6]. - Seasonal consumer demand, particularly during promotional events like "618," has contributed to the increase in credit demand [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent financial data released by the People's Bank of China, indicating a stable growth in money supply and social financing, supported by government bond issuance and favorable monetary policies aimed at enhancing credit availability for businesses and consumers [1][5][6]. Group 1: Monetary Supply and Social Financing - As of June 2025, the broad money supply (M2) reached 330.29 trillion yuan, growing by 8.3% year-on-year, which is 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous month and 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1]. - The social financing scale stood at 430.22 trillion yuan at the end of June, with a year-on-year growth of 8.9%, reflecting a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month [1]. - The increment in social financing for June was 4.20 trillion yuan, which is 900.8 billion yuan more than the same month last year, while the total increment for the first half of the year was 22.83 trillion yuan, up by 4.74 trillion yuan year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Credit Demand and Lending Rates - The willingness of enterprises to draw loans has increased, with the total RMB loan balance reaching 268.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [3][4]. - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in the first half of the year was approximately 3.3%, which is 45 basis points lower than the same period last year, while the average rate for personal housing loans was about 3.1%, down by 60 basis points year-on-year [4]. - The growth rate of medium to long-term loans in the manufacturing sector was 8.7%, surpassing the overall loan growth rate by 1.6 percentage points [3]. Group 3: Policy Impact and Future Outlook - The article emphasizes that the government's bond issuance has significantly supported the social financing scale, with the issuance pace of general bonds and new local bonds being faster than the previous year by about 10-15 percentage points [1][3]. - Experts predict that the financial total is expected to maintain reasonable growth, supported by the internal dynamics of the economy and the ongoing effects of existing policies [5][6]. - The monetary policy remains "moderately loose," with the People's Bank of China implementing various measures to ensure liquidity and support economic recovery, including interest rate cuts and targeted lending [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has released financial statistics for the first half of 2025, indicating a moderate monetary policy aimed at maintaining liquidity and supporting the real economy. Group 1: Monetary Supply - Broad money (M2) increased by 8.3% year-on-year, reaching 330.29 trillion yuan by the end of June [2] - Narrow money (M1) grew by 4.6% year-on-year, totaling 113.95 trillion yuan [2] - Cash in circulation (M0) rose by 12% year-on-year, amounting to 13.18 trillion yuan, with a net cash injection of 363.3 billion yuan in the first half [2] Group 2: Loans and Deposits - Total RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan in the first half, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [3] - Household loans rose by 1.17 trillion yuan, while corporate loans increased by 11.57 trillion yuan [3] - Total RMB deposits grew by 17.94 trillion yuan in the first half, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3% [5] Group 3: Foreign Currency Loans and Deposits - Foreign currency loans decreased by 10.6% year-on-year, with a total balance of 560.9 billion USD [4] - Foreign currency deposits increased by 21.7% year-on-year, reaching 1.02 trillion USD [6] Group 4: Interbank Market and Interest Rates - The average weighted interest rate for interbank RMB lending was 1.46%, lower than the previous month and the same period last year [8] - The total transaction volume in the interbank RMB market was 974.04 trillion yuan, with a daily average transaction of 8.12 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4.4% [7] Group 5: Foreign Exchange Reserves and Cross-Border Settlements - The national foreign exchange reserves stood at 3.32 trillion USD by the end of June [9] - Cross-border RMB settlement for current accounts reached 8.3 trillion yuan, with direct investment settlements totaling 4.11 trillion yuan [10] Group 6: Monetary Policy Outlook - The PBOC aims to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring ample liquidity and aligning monetary supply growth with economic growth and price expectations [11] - The focus will be on enhancing financial services for the real economy, particularly in technology innovation, consumption expansion, and support for small and micro enterprises [11]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic growth and stabilize market expectations, while closely monitoring the effectiveness of previously implemented policies [1][2]. Data Overview - In the first half of 2025, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan - As of the end of June, the broad money supply (M2) stood at 330.29 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.3% - The cumulative increase in social financing scale for the first half of 2025 was 22.83 trillion yuan, which is 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year - The social financing scale stock as of the end of June was 430.22 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.9% [2]. Policy Implementation - The PBOC aims to enhance the effectiveness of monetary and credit policies, responding to external shocks and promoting economic recovery - The focus will be on maintaining ample liquidity, ensuring that the growth of social financing and money supply aligns with economic growth and price level expectations - The PBOC will emphasize financial services for the real economy, particularly in areas such as technological innovation, consumption expansion, and support for small and micro enterprises [2][3]. Structural Focus - The PBOC will utilize various structural monetary policy tools to support key sectors and address weaknesses in the economy - There will be a focus on policy coordination to enhance the effectiveness of financial services directed at the real economy [2][3]. Transmission Mechanism - The PBOC will strengthen the execution and supervision of interest rate policies to improve market competition and fund utilization efficiency - Efforts will be made to balance financial support for the real economy with the health of the financial system [3]. Monetary Policy Framework - The PBOC plans to improve the market-based interest rate adjustment mechanism and optimize the monetary policy tool system - A credible and institutionalized policy communication mechanism will be established to better serve high-quality development [3].

Key Points - The central bank reported that in the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, and the cumulative social financing scale increased by 22.83 trillion yuan, which is 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2][13] Monetary Growth - As of the end of June, the broad money (M2) balance was 330.29 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3%. The narrow money (M1) balance was 113.95 trillion yuan, growing by 4.6% year-on-year. The currency in circulation (M0) was 13.18 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12% [2] RMB Loans - By the end of June, the balance of RMB loans was 268.56 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.1%. In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, with household loans increasing by 1.17 trillion yuan and corporate loans increasing by 11.57 trillion yuan [3] RMB Deposits - The balance of RMB deposits reached 320.17 trillion yuan by the end of June, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3%. In the first half of the year, RMB deposits increased by 17.94 trillion yuan, with household deposits increasing by 10.77 trillion yuan [5] Foreign Currency Loans and Deposits - The balance of foreign currency loans was 560.9 billion USD, showing a year-on-year decrease of 10.6%. In the first half of the year, foreign currency loans increased by 18.8 billion USD. The balance of foreign currency deposits was 1.02 trillion USD, with a year-on-year growth of 21.7% [4][6] Interbank Market Rates - In June, the weighted average interest rate for interbank RMB market lending was 1.46%, lower than the previous month and the same period last year. The weighted average interest rate for pledged bond repurchase was 1.5%, also lower than the previous month and the same period last year [6] Foreign Exchange Reserves - By the end of June, the national foreign exchange reserves stood at 3.32 trillion USD, with the RMB exchange rate at 1 USD to 7.1586 RMB [7] Cross-Border RMB Settlement - In the first half of the year, the cross-border RMB settlement amount under current accounts was 8.3 trillion yuan, with direct investment cross-border RMB settlement amounting to 4.11 trillion yuan [8]

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.10%, down 0.02 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.93%, down 0.01 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index decreased by 0.06 percentage points compared to June, while the demand index remained stable[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.98%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, and the consumption index is at 49.71%, down 0.03 percentage points[6] Loan and Financing Trends - The ELI index is at -0.90%, up 0.15 percentage points from last week, indicating a seasonal recovery in loan demand[11] - New RMB loans are expected to be between CNY 1.80 trillion and CNY 2.0 trillion in June, slightly lower than the same period last year by CNY 0.28 trillion to CNY 0.13 trillion[14] - Government net financing reached CNY 1.41 trillion in June, an increase of CNY 0.7 trillion year-on-year, contributing to a projected social financing scale increase of CNY 3.6 trillion to CNY 3.8 trillion[14] Consumption and Production Insights - Passenger car retail sales in June increased by 15% year-on-year, improving from 13% in May[7] - The average daily sales of passenger cars for the week ending June 30 were 95,374 units, slightly down from the previous year[21] - The electricity load of coastal power plants averaged 82.71%, up 8 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong industrial production[16] Export and Price Trends - The SCFI and CCFI indices for export container prices fell by 98.02 points and 26.35 points, respectively, indicating a decline in export momentum[31] - The average wholesale price of pork is CNY 20.38 per kg, showing a slight increase, while the price of key monitored vegetables is CNY 4.35 per kg, down slightly[37] Risk Factors - Uncertainties remain regarding U.S. tariff policies and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[46] - The sustainability of improvements in the real estate sector is still under observation[46]

Group 1 - In May, the social financing scale increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 224.7 billion yuan, and new RMB loans amounted to 620 billion yuan [1] - The broad money supply (M2) grew by 7.9% year-on-year, which is 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year, indicating a strong financial growth relative to nominal economic growth [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) increased by 2.3% year-on-year, reflecting a significant acceleration in the growth of "liquid money," which is expected to boost market confidence and economic activities [1] Group 2 - The net financing of government bonds accelerated in May, reaching 1.46 trillion yuan, while local governments issued 443.2 billion yuan in new special bonds, marking a new high for the year [2] - The net financing of corporate bonds exceeded 140 billion yuan in May, with a decline in the average yield of AAA-rated corporate bonds, encouraging companies to increase bond financing [2] - Despite a lower scale of new RMB loans compared to the same period last year, the RMB loan balance grew by 7.1% year-on-year, indicating stable loan growth [2] Group 3 - In May, nearly 530 billion yuan in new RMB loans were issued to the corporate sector, supported by a recent interest rate cut that boosted loan demand [3] - The residential sector saw an increase of nearly 54 billion yuan in new RMB loans, reflecting a recovery in the local real estate market [3] - The increased financing through government and corporate bonds is expected to substitute for bank loans, as local governments prefer using special bonds for project funding [3]