国债期货日报 | 2026-01-27 超长段修复，国债期货涨跌分化 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策： 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币 信号；中央经济工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面继续实施适度宽松 的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏观政策环境；2026 年1月19日起，下调再贷款、再贴现等一篮子利率0.25个百分点，同时今年还存在继续降准降息的空间。（2）通胀： 12月CPI同比上升0.8%。 财政：（3）财政：11 月一般公共预算收入在高基数影响下同比放缓，但全年收入进度仍偏快，第一本账完成压力 不大，财政托底能力仍在。支出端呈现出降幅明显收窄的特征，前期预算内资金逐步转化为实际支出，结构上更 加向民生和投资于人倾斜，基建相关支出边际改善但整体仍偏弱。政府性基金收入继续受地产拖累，但专项债发 行提速带动支出同比转正，对广义财政形成支撑。整体来看，当前财政体现为稳总量、调结构、托底为主，短期 对经济形成一定支撑，但更强拉动仍有赖于准财政资金和明年政策加码的进一步落地。（ ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China Shandong Branch reported stable growth in financial metrics for 2025, with significant increases in social financing, loans, and deposits, indicating a positive monetary environment for economic development in Shandong province [1][2]. Financial Metrics - As of December 2025, Shandong's social financing scale reached 25.9 trillion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 9.0%, outpacing the national average by 0.7 percentage points [1][2]. - The balance of domestic and foreign currency loans was 16.3 trillion yuan, growing by 8.2%, and the balance of deposits was 19.0 trillion yuan, increasing by 9.1%, both exceeding national growth rates [1][2]. Financing Costs - Financing costs have shown a slight decrease, with the average interest rate for new corporate loans at 3.57%, down by 0.19 percentage points year-on-year, marking a historical low [2]. - The average interest rate for new personal housing loans was 3.05%, with a minor decrease of 0.01 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Loan Coverage - The number of enterprises receiving loans increased to 310,000 by December, up by 33,000 from the beginning of the year, reflecting an expanded loan coverage [3]. Credit Structure - The loan balance for enterprises reached 10.9 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.6%, significantly higher than the overall loan growth rate [4]. - In 2025, the increase in enterprise loans amounted to 1.2 trillion yuan, which is 773.5 billion yuan more than the previous year, setting a historical record for the same period [4]. Support for High-Quality Transformation - The implementation of structural monetary policy tools led to over 190 billion yuan in loans aimed at technological innovation and carbon reduction [5]. - By November, loans in the "Five Major Articles" sector reached 6.7 trillion yuan, growing by 15.6% year-on-year, accounting for 78.9% of the total loan increase [5]. Investment Expansion - Loans for fixed assets and infrastructure reached 4.2 trillion yuan and 4.9 trillion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.2% and 14.0%, both exceeding the overall loan growth rate [5]. Consumption Promotion - The balance of medium- and long-term consumer loans, excluding personal housing loans, was 448.03 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.9% [6]. - Loans in the wholesale and retail sectors, as well as accommodation and catering, saw significant growth rates of 21.1% and 19.9%, respectively [6]. Foreign Trade and Investment - The implementation of trade facilitation policies resulted in a 35% year-on-year increase in pilot business transactions, totaling 93.3 billion yuan [6]. - Cross-border RMB transactions reached 1.5 trillion yuan from January to November, growing by 16.2% year-on-year, with RMB accounting for 40.5% of total cross-border transactions [6]. Future Outlook - The People's Bank of China Shandong Branch plans to continue supporting green, low-carbon, and high-quality development while enhancing financial services for the real economy [7].

Group 1 - As of the end of 2025, Shenzhen's deposit and loan scale ranks third among major cities in China, with total deposits of 14.63 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, and loans totaling 9.97 trillion yuan, up 5.1% year-on-year [1] - The social financing scale in Shenzhen is expected to maintain reasonable growth, with an increase of over 630 billion yuan in 2025, which is more than 150 billion yuan higher than the previous year, and direct financing accounting for about 40% [2] - The weighted average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in Shenzhen was 2.55% in December 2025, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a downward trend in overall financing costs [2] Group 2 - By the end of 2025, loans for technology, green, and digital economy industries in Shenzhen increased significantly, with respective shares rising by 1.9, 3.3, and 1.4 percentage points compared to the end of 2024 [3] - The balance of loans to the private economy in Shenzhen reached 4.35 trillion yuan, accounting for 43.7% of total loans, while inclusive micro-loans amounted to 2.01 trillion yuan, supporting the development of the private sector [3] - Shenzhen's technology loan balance reached 2.28 trillion yuan, with initiatives like "Tengfei Loan" and "Technology Startup Pass" helping over 5,200 tech companies secure nearly 20 billion yuan in funding [5] Group 3 - Various support measures have been implemented to boost consumption and expand domestic demand, with new loans exceeding 80 billion yuan issued by banks in the region [5] - Personal medium- and long-term non-housing consumption loans grew by 13.12% year-on-year, outpacing the overall loan growth rate by 8 percentage points [5] - Inbound consumption in Shenzhen reached 1.88 billion transactions worth 26.462 billion yuan in 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 27.7% and 31.3%, respectively [5]

2026.01. 23 本文字数：1163，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 安卓 1月23日，中国人民银行广东省分行举行2025年广东省金融运行形势新闻发布会，发布一系列金融统计数据并作出解读。 数据显示，2025年全年，广东社会融资规模增量为2.78万亿元，同比多增3661亿元，对实体经济的支持力度不断增强，有 力支撑了广东高质量发展。 从结构来看，贷款保持平稳较快增长，人民币和外币贷款累计增加1.34万亿元、同比多增2382亿元，占社会融资规模增量 的比重为48.2%、同比提高2.6个百分点。 政府债券融资规模持续扩大，地方政府债券净融资6163亿元、同比多增807亿元，占社会融资规模增量的比重为22.2%，与 去年基本持平。 企业直接融资增长加快，企业通过发行债券、股票等方式直接融资3539亿元、同比多增1050亿元，占社会融资规模增量的 比重为12.7%、同比提高2.4个百分点。 "总的来说，直接融资和间接融资的比例持续优化，为实体经济提供了更多的低成本中长期资金，有力支持广东经济顶压前 行、向新向优。"中国人民银行广东省分行相关负责人说。 回顾"十四五"期间，广东社会融资规模累计增量达到15 ...

1月23日，中国人民银行广东省分行举行新闻发布会，介绍2025年广东金融运行形势和下一步政策措 施。 2025年12月22日，央行发布关于实施一次性信用修复政策有关安排的通知，支持信用受损但积极还款的 个人高效便捷重塑信用，助力经济持续回升向好。 中国人民银行广东省分行货币政策处四级调研员何达之指出，2025年，人民银行广东省分行聚焦科创、 消费、特色产业、外贸四大重点领域和薄弱环节，打出了一套有力有效兼具广东特色的金融支持组合 拳。 何达之介绍，广东依托200亿元"粤科融"专用额度，截至2025年末，"支农支小再贷款+省财政贴息"模式 已覆盖辖内所有地市，帮助制造业和高新技术企业获贷超100亿元。在消费领域，该行依托200亿元"焕 新贷"专用额度，与全省"以旧换新"政策协同发力，覆盖汽车、家电、通讯设备等领域，以及住宿餐 饮、养老等服务主体，全方位激活消费市场潜力；联合广东省财政厅等九部门印发《关于做好服务业经 营主体贷款贴息工作的通知》，重点支持餐饮住宿、文旅体融合、银发经济等领域。 在特色产业领域，人民银行广东省分行通过200亿元"粤惠贷"专用额度，叠加财政贴息、担保增信政 策，形成"一业一策、一地一特 ...

有力支撑了广东高质量发展。 1月23日，中国人民银行广东省分行举行2025年广东省金融运行形势新闻发布会，发布一系列金融统计 数据并作出解读。 数据显示，2025年全年，广东社会融资规模增量为2.78万亿元，同比多增3661亿元，对实体经济的支持 力度不断增强，有力支撑了广东高质量发展。 从结构来看，贷款保持平稳较快增长，人民币和外币贷款累计增加1.34万亿元、同比多增2382亿元，占 社会融资规模增量的比重为48.2%、同比提高2.6个百分点。 政府债券融资规模持续扩大，地方政府债券净融资6163亿元、同比多增807亿元，占社会融资规模增量 的比重为22.2%，与去年基本持平。 企业直接融资增长加快，企业通过发行债券、股票等方式直接融资3539亿元、同比多增1050亿元，占社 会融资规模增量的比重为12.7%、同比提高2.4个百分点。 "总的来说，直接融资和间接融资的比例持续优化，为实体经济提供了更多的低成本中长期资金，有力 支持广东经济顶压前行、向新向优。"中国人民银行广东省分行相关负责人说。 回顾"十四五"期间，广东社会融资规模累计增量达到15.6万亿元，较"十三五"时期多增2万亿元。 从中国人民银行广 ...

中国人民银行广东省分行调查统计处二级调研员袁中红表示，社会融资规模的结构变化，主要与广东经 济转向高质量发展过程中伴随的社会经济生产活动结构性调整有关。一个是社会融资规模增长对重资产 投资的依赖性逐步减弱，金融资源更多投向新质生产力；另一个是融资渠道日益多元化，从高度依赖银 行贷款转变为综合运用债券、股票等更丰富的市场化融资方式以适配多样化融资需求。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） 从更长时期看，"十四五"期间，广东社会融资规模累计增量达15.6万亿元，较"十三五"时期多增2万亿 元。据该行测算，"十四五"期间广东社会融资规模存量年均增长9.6%，与经济增长和价格总水平预期目 标基本匹配。 从结构看，"十四五"期间直接融资对社会融资规模的贡献度明显提高。其中，政府和企业债券、非金融 企业境内股票净融资累计增加4.3万亿元，占同期社会融资规模增量的比重为27.4%，较"十三五"时期提 高了3.9个百分点。另一方面，"十四五"期间，广东人民币和外币贷款累计增加9.7万亿元，占同期社会 融资规模增量的比重为62.1%。 中新网广州1月23日电 (记者许青青)据中国人民银行广东省分行23日举行的2025年广东省金融运 ...

南方财经记者庞成广州报道 金融总量保持合理增长，融资结构持续优化，实体经济部门资金状况向好、经济活跃度提升……1月23 日，中国人民银行广东省分行举行2025年广东省金融运行形势新闻发布会，发布一系列金融统计数据并 作出解读。 南方财经记者从会上了解到，2025年全年，广东社会融资规模增量为2.78万亿元，同比多增3661亿元， 对实体经济的支持力度不断增强，有力支撑了广东高质量发展。 从结构来看，贷款保持平稳较快增长，人民币和外币贷款累计增加1.34万亿元、同比多增2382亿元，占 社会融资规模增量的比重为48.2%、同比提高2.6个百分点。 政府债券融资规模持续扩大，地方政府债券净融资6163亿元、同比多增807亿元，占社会融资规模增量 的比重为22.2%，与去年基本持平。 企业直接融资增长加快，企业通过发行债券、股票等方式直接融资3539亿元、同比多增1050亿元，占社 会融资规模增量的比重为12.7%、同比提高2.4个百分点。总的来说，直接融资和间接融资的比例持续优 化，为实体经济提供了更多的低成本中长期资金，有力支持广东经济顶压前行、向新向优。 回顾"十四五"期间，广东社会融资规模累计增量为15.6 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations, influenced by factors such as the stock market, policy signals from the Politburo meeting, unchanged LPR, Fed rate - cut expectations, and global trade uncertainties. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Index**: China's monthly CPI has a 0.20% month - on - month increase and 0.80% year - on - year increase; monthly PPI has a 0.20% month - on - month increase and - 1.90% year - on - year decrease [8] - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale is 442.12 trillion yuan, with a 2.05 - trillion - yuan increase and 0.47% growth rate; M2 year - on - year is 8.50%, with a 0.50% increase and 6.25% growth rate; manufacturing PMI is 50.10%, with a 0.90% increase and 1.83% growth rate [9] - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 98.78, with a 0.23 increase and 0.23% growth rate; the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.9586, with a 0.002 decrease and - 0.03% growth rate; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.49, with a 0.01 increase and 0.34% growth rate, etc. [10] II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Closing Price and Fluctuation**: On January 21, 2026, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL are 102.43 yuan, 105.88 yuan, 108.20 yuan, and 112.25 yuan respectively, with fluctuations of - 0.01%, 0.01%, 0.03%, and 0.75% [3] - **Net Basis Spread**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL are - 0.014 yuan, - 0.022 yuan, - 0.039 yuan, and - 0.970 yuan respectively [3] III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - **Central Bank Operations**: On January 21, 2026, the central bank conducted 363.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed rate of 1.4% [2] - **Repo Rates**: The main term repo rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.322%, 1.488%, 1.597%, and 1.559% respectively, and the repo rates have recently declined [2] IV. Spread Overview - **Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads**: There are various inter - period spreads of treasury bond futures and inter - variety spreads between spot bonds and futures, such as 4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, etc. [30][32] V. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Related Rates**: The relationship between the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, and the relationship between the TS main contract IRR and the funding rate are presented [41] - **Basis Spread**: The three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TS main contract are shown [43] VI. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Related Rates**: The relationship between the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, and the relationship between the TF main contract IRR and the funding rate are presented [45] - **Basis Spread**: The three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TF main contract are shown [52] VII. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Related Rates**: The relationship between the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, and the relationship between the T main contract IRR and the funding rate are presented [51] - **Basis Spread**: The three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the T main contract are shown [51] VIII. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Related Rates**: The relationship between the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, and the relationship between the TL main contract IRR and the funding rate are presented [56] - **Basis Spread**: The three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TL main contract are shown [61]

Group 1: Credit Performance - Corporate credit outperformed household credit in December 2025, with significant increases in short-term and medium-to-long-term loans compared to the same period in 2024[4] - Household sector continued to deleverage, with a net repayment in short-term loans and only 10 billion yuan in new medium-to-long-term loans, primarily due to poor real estate sales and decreased willingness to consume[4][21] - Overall, the total social financing scale increased by 3.34 trillion yuan year-on-year, reaching 35.6 trillion yuan for the entire year[13] Group 2: Monetary Supply and Deposits - M2 growth rate improved to 8.5% year-on-year in December 2025, up from 8% in November[13] - Non-bank financial institutions saw better deposit performance compared to 2024, influenced by regulatory changes in interbank deposit rates[5][23] - New household deposits exceeded those of 2024, indicating limited scale of deposit migration[5][24] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - Future positive factors include continued support from policy financial tools, proactive government bond financing, and structural interest rate cuts, with expectations for social financing growth to stabilize or slightly increase[6] - Risks include unexpected changes in the economic environment and policy adjustments that could impact market risk appetite and bond market dynamics[7][30]