Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic financial competition between the U.S. and China, highlighting China's significant gold reserves of 74.12 million ounces, which surpasses the U.S. Federal Reserve's holdings by 20% [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Strategy - The U.S. is not retreating but rather upgrading its "precision hegemony," focusing on controlling key regions while withdrawing from less critical areas [5][7]. - The U.S. has criticized Europe for lagging in military spending and is reallocating resources to counter China, indicating a shift in its global strategy [3][5]. - The U.S. aims to contain China through economic measures such as tariffs and technology restrictions, while simultaneously seeking cooperation in specific sectors like renewable energy [3][7]. Group 2: China's Response - China has been increasing its gold reserves for 13 consecutive months, accumulating 74.12 million ounces, which serves as a financial buffer against potential dollar depreciation [5][7]. - The reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings to $700.5 billion is a strategic move to maintain market influence while mitigating risks associated with U.S. debt fluctuations [7][8]. - China's approach to gold accumulation is seen as a long-term strategy to enhance financial autonomy and resilience against U.S. economic pressures [5][8]. Group 3: Global Implications - The shift in U.S. and Chinese strategies is leading to a reordering of global power dynamics, with China moving from a passive stance to an active role in shaping international rules [7][8]. - The competition is characterized by a contrast between the U.S.'s "small yard, high walls" approach and China's "open garden" strategy, promoting cooperation over confrontation [7][8]. - The ongoing financial competition is viewed as a test of resilience and strategic foresight, with the potential for significant shifts in global governance and economic structures [8].

大家好，我是乔叔，今天咱们来聊聊美国这波所谓全球"收缩"，背后究竟是怎么在给自己的霸权换新招 数的。 日前，美国国债直逼37万亿美元，刚性利息支出已把财政搞得紧巴巴。战争消耗和造舰拖延，更让美国 不得不收敛全球扩张的野心。 拉美重新"抱紧"，保障安全底线 口头上说放弃主导权，实际可没真松劲。加勒比海集结大批美军，波多黎各基地翻修，F-35战机密集进 驻，离委内瑞拉只隔着几个小时的航程。 一边对委内瑞拉施压，一边拉拢阿根廷签协议，胡萝卜和棍子一起上，拉美国家的日子并不轻松。 美国在这片地区是出了力的，这种做法说到底也是为了给自己留条后路，强化自身安全防线，以应付外 部变数。 美国自身没怎么加兵力，反倒把日本、韩国推到前台。日本被逼着把军费暴涨，计划造新舰艇、潜艇， 军事指挥权和美军贴得越来越紧，几乎让美国遥控日本行动。 从高层到普通民众，大家都清楚，现在已玩不起大手笔的全球驻军了。白宫新战略宣布"低调"，其实就 是不得不调整打法，把以往的铺张转为精打细算。 这背后的现实压力，才是美国政策变脸的根本动力。 亚太盟友"变炮灰"，欧洲自力更生 金融拳头没收手，美元背后权力暗涌 别看美国军力转型，其实最厉害的还在金融牌 ...

曾经，中国是美债最大海外持有者，一度超过一万三千亿美元。 如今，这个数字已经连续多年下滑，节奏虽缓，方向明确。 这不是孤立动作。 连美国最铁的盟友日本——高市早苗政府下的财务省——也在加速抛售美债。 大家都看到了同一个问题：美国债务雪球越滚越大，财政纪律形同虚设，政治极化让债务上限谈判变成人质游戏。 持有越多，风险敞口越大。 中国的选择，不是立刻清仓美元资产，而是一边有序减持美债，一边稳步增持黄金。 这是一场精密的资产置换，不是情绪化脱钩。 美债仍是流动性最好的安全资产之一，彻底抛弃不现实。 但过度依赖，等于把国家金融命脉绑在别人的信用绳索上。 中国央行在十一月七日公布的黄金储备数据，一下子把全球金融圈的注意力拽了过来。 七千四百一十二万盎司，比上个月又多了三万盎司。 这已经是连续第十三个月增持了。 从二〇二四年十一月起，每个月都买，风雨无阻。 数字本身不算爆炸，但公布的时间点，像一根针扎进了敏感神经。 几乎就在同一天，特朗普放出口风，打算在二〇二五年四月正式访华。 一个还没动身，一个先亮出底牌。 这场面，怎么看都不是巧合。 黄金储备的变动，向来不是简单的资产配置问题。 尤其当它出现在中美关系再度绷紧的节骨眼 ...

2025年12月7号，中国官方公布自己手里的黄金数量为7412万盎司，换算成吨的话是2305吨，这个数字 达到了新高，这些黄金都是实际存在的实物储备，同时中国也在逐步减少美债的持有量，比如在9月份 就减持了5亿美元，英国那边动作更明显，一下子减少了393亿美债，目前还剩下8650亿美元，这些调整 不是临时决定的，而是全球很多央行都在悄悄改变资产配置的方向，大家开始对美元信任度降低了。 年初中国买了253亿美债，算是给了点面子，第二季度特朗普又加关税、卡技术，中国就调整资产结 构，12月公布黄金储备的时间，正好在特朗普访华前两个月，这个时间不是巧合，是特意选的，你谈你 的，我亮我的底牌，各自下自己的棋。 2026年4月，特朗普打算来中国，重点不是谈贸易问题，而是讨论债务怎么分担，还提到"规则共享"这 种虚的说法，他想让中国接受现有的国际秩序，实际上是想把责任推给中国，但特朗普的打算错了，中 国公布黄金储备，意思是不会跟他分蛋糕，而是要自己开个新厨房，这不是对抗，是另起炉灶。 过去美元依赖石油、美债和黄金来维持地位，石油要用美元买，美债大家抢着买，黄金也随着美元走， 现在情况变了，原油交易中越来越多使用人民币或其 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the disparity between the perception of economic strength in China and the reality of its position relative to the United States, emphasizing the importance of understanding the underlying distribution rules that govern global economics [4][6][7]. Group 1: Economic Performance - In 2021, China's industrial output accounted for 30% of the global total, and its GDP reached 77% of that of the United States. However, by 2024, while industrial output increased to 35% of the global total, the GDP ratio relative to the U.S. fell to 65%, a decline of 12% [4][5]. - The article highlights that despite improvements in industrial production capabilities, China's economic growth is hindered by the existing distribution rules set by the U.S., which maintains its status as the largest consumer nation [6][7]. Group 2: Global Economic Rules - The article categorizes countries into resource countries, industrial countries, and consumer countries, with the U.S. being the largest consumer country that dictates the rules of the game [6]. - The dominance of the U.S. is attributed to its control over the distribution of global wealth, with the dollar serving as the primary currency for international transactions, reinforcing the concept of dollar hegemony [6][7]. Group 3: Military and Economic Strategy - The article suggests that to change the existing economic rules, China must enhance its military capabilities, particularly in naval power, to gain leverage in international negotiations [8][10]. - It is noted that the U.S. is currently adjusting its national security strategy to stabilize relations with China while addressing its own economic issues, indicating a shift in the dynamics of their relationship [14][18]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article expresses optimism about China's future, suggesting that while it may not immediately become the new "game master," the current challenges faced by the U.S. could create opportunities for China [13][22]. - It emphasizes the importance of being prepared for potential economic shifts and the need for diversified asset allocation to navigate the changing landscape [35][44]. Group 5: Policy and Market Dynamics - The article stresses the significance of monitoring policy changes and macroeconomic events, as these will influence market conditions and investment strategies [45][52]. - It highlights the volatility in capital markets due to global liquidity changes, particularly in response to actions taken by major central banks like the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan [47][48].

小李最近刷到美国债务的消息，真是触目惊心，规模逼近GDP的百分之百，每周光还利息就花110多亿 美元。 前白宫经济顾问直言，没别的出路，只能大幅砍开支硬扛，可这"砍开支"哪是说说那么简单，最后遭殃 的大概率是美国普通老百姓。 这场债务危机真的已经到了无可救药的地步？大幅削减支出后，美国民众的医保、福利会受多大影响， 日常生活又要跟着遭哪些罪？ 当下美国的债务状况，早已跳出"透支未来"的浅层困境，演变为一套深度捆绑、难以拆解的系统性死 结。 数据所呈现的严峻态势仅仅是冰山一角：美国公共债务规模占国内生产总值（GDP）的比重已飙升至 99%，按照当前扩张节奏，2029年将突破107%，刷新二战结束后的历史最高纪录。 仅每周的债务利息支出就超110亿美元，占本财年联邦总支出的15%，这意味着海量财政资金被禁锢 在"借新还旧"的循环中，根本无法投入到实体经济回暖与民生保障升级等核心领域。 从历史演进视角来看，任何经济体的债务扩张都存在不可逾越的边界，一旦突破临界值，必然触发市场 信心崩盘与信用体系危机。 美国之所以能长期维系债务扩张态势，核心依托于美元的霸权地位以及美国国债的"安全资产"标签，但 这一核心优势正逐步消 ...

Core Viewpoint - China is increasing its gold reserves while reducing its holdings of US Treasury bonds, signaling a shift in its financial strategy amidst global economic uncertainties and the declining credibility of the US dollar [3][10][25]. Group 1: China's Gold Reserves - On December 7, the People's Bank of China announced its latest gold reserve data, revealing a total of approximately 21,013 tons, marking 13 consecutive months of increases [6][10]. - The continuous accumulation of gold is seen as a strategic move to diversify foreign reserves and enhance financial security, especially as the US faces a debt crisis [10][12]. - China's gold purchases are occurring despite rising international gold prices, indicating a commitment to strengthening its financial position [10][12]. Group 2: US Debt and Financial Stability - The US national debt surpassed $38 trillion in October, with interest payments nearing 20% of the federal budget, raising concerns about the safety of US Treasury bonds [6][8]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have failed to restore market confidence, further damaging the dollar's credibility [8][14]. - There is widespread speculation that Trump's upcoming visit to China may involve requests for China to support US debt, but China's actions suggest a reluctance to comply [8][25]. Group 3: Global Financial Trends - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves fell to 56.32%, the lowest in 30 years, indicating a decline in its dominance [14][20]. - Emerging economies, including India and Saudi Arabia, are increasingly diversifying their reserves away from the dollar, with significant increases in gold repatriation and local currency settlements [14][16]. - The trend towards de-dollarization is evident as countries seek to establish a multi-polar financial system, reducing reliance on the US dollar [20][23]. Group 4: China's Financial Strategy - China is actively promoting the internationalization of the renminbi, with significant increases in the use of the currency for trade settlements, particularly in commodities like iron ore and oil [18][20]. - The growth of China's gold reserves is part of a broader strategy to enhance its influence in global finance and provide a financial safety net for neighboring countries [20][27]. - The recent surge in demand for Chinese sovereign bonds, with a subscription rate of 30 times for a $4 billion issuance, reflects growing confidence in China's financial stability compared to the US [23][25].

当中国央行连续13个月增持黄金储备的消息传来，7158万盎司的数字背后，藏着一条横跨世纪的金融暗线。这不仅是简单的资产配置调整，而是一场关于货 币信用的百年博弈——黄金与美元的较量，从未真正停歇。 数字货币时代的黄金新角色 当各国央行开始研究数字货币时，黄金却意外焕发新生。财信证券研报指出，美联储加息周期结束的预期，正在使黄金"去美元化"功能凸显。中国民生银行 温彬的分析更为直接："黄金超越欧元成为全球第二大储备资产，正是因其脱离了单一主权货币体系。"就像7158万盎司的储备数字，每增加1盎司，都是对 美元信用体系的一次微小但坚定的质疑。 这场持续百年的货币战争远未结束。当38万盎司的月度增持遇上706亿美元的外储增长，中国央行用行动给出了选择题的答案：在美元武器化与地缘冲突叠 加的时代，黄金仍是终极的"金融避雷针"。或许正如那7158万盎司黄金沉默的光芒所暗示的——货币会贬值，但人类对绝对价值的追寻永不褪色。 印钞机与黄金牛市的隐秘联动 翻开美联储资产负债表会发现惊人规律：2008年金融危机后其规模扩张5倍，同期黄金价格从680美元/盎司飙升至2075美元/盎司；2020年疫情后再度扩表 114%，金价随即 ...

近期，国际形势发生了微妙变化。美国通过美元霸权操控全球金融市场的方式，逐渐被各国识破并看衰。即使是美国的亲密盟友——日本，也在过去一年内 减少了超过2000亿美元的美债持有量。 日本这一举动显然是美国不愿看到的，为了防止美元遭遇大规模抛售，美国在给日本上了一课后，迫使日本开始增持美债。然而，随着美联储不断加息和国 内银行频繁倒闭，美元的信用等级遭遇严重打击，各国开始对美元失去信心。美元危机逐渐升温，促使多个国家开始转向去美元化，寻找新的经济增长点和 发展方式。 法国总统马克龙在中国工商业联会结束后，成为首位访问中国的欧洲元首。马克龙回国后，欧洲才意识到，使用人民币结算200亿美元的大单是多么有吸引 力。欧盟在美国对俄罗斯实施经济制裁时，表面上看似是在对抗俄罗斯，但随着制裁的升级，俄乌冲突爆发，欧盟各成员国的亲美政策开始暴露出许多问 题，甚至出现了自我打脸的情况。 俄乌冲突爆发后，美国主导的北约开始对乌克兰提供军事援助，欧盟各国也象征性地支持乌克兰。然而，随着冲突的不断升级，美国要求欧盟加大对乌克兰 的援助力度，并共同对俄罗斯实施全面经济制裁。欧盟在没有深思熟虑的情况下，盲目跟随美国的步伐，对俄罗斯进行制裁，并 ...

特朗普的"忠犬"即将上位，百年美联储将迎来大变局。 特朗普最近宣布，他已经决定了下一任美联储主席的人选，将于2026年年初公布。 尽管特朗普没有指名道姓，但据彭博社打探的消息，这个人就是现任白宫经济委员会主任的凯文·哈塞特。 之前媒体吵得沸沸扬扬，包括美国财长贝森特，现任美联储理事沃勒和米兰，都是热门人选，但最后，特朗普还是选择了最听话的那个。 这意味着，特朗普将正式接管美联储，他将成为罗斯福之后权力最大的美国总统，但对美联储来说，却无异于脑死亡，这个百年机构将彻底丧失独立性，全 球经济也将因此发生深刻的变革。 | 【环球时报驻美国特约记者 丁亮 环球时报记者 杜天琦】"我知道我要选谁了， | 环 | | --- | --- | | 没错。"当地时间11月30日，美国总统特朗普表示，他已确定下一任美联储主席人 | 法国 | | 选。特朗普在返回华盛顿的总统专机"空军一号"上告诉记者这一消息，但并未透露具 | 首届: | | 体人选，只是表示"我们即将宣布这一决定。"负责监督遴选过程的美国财政部长贝森 | 乌称 | | 特上周表示，特朗普可能在12月25日前宣布提名。 | 印度! | 这将会产生多大的影响呢？我 ...