Core Insights - The inflation trend in the U.S. is expected to show resilience by the end of 2025, marking a potential end to the previous slowdown in price growth [1] - The upcoming core CPI data is anticipated to reflect underlying price pressures, with both overall and core CPI expected to rise to 2.7% year-over-year [1][2] Inflation Data and Market Expectations - The sticky nature of inflation supports the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in the short term, with market expectations indicating a low probability of rate cuts in the near future [2] - Analysts suggest that the unexpected decline in November's inflation data was largely influenced by technical factors, and December's data will reveal the true inflation levels as these distortions fade [2][7] Monthly Data Recovery - The key focus for December's CPI data is the recovery in month-over-month growth rates, with consensus estimates predicting a rise to 0.3% for both overall and core inflation indices [3] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a significant rebound in December's core CPI, projecting a month-over-month increase of 0.36%, well above the average of 0.08% seen in October and November [5] Statistical Distortions - The potential strength in inflation data is attributed to the reversal of the "shutdown effect," which previously hindered data collection and led to artificially low November figures [7] - The December CPI data is expected to correct for statistical biases caused by the government shutdown, which affected housing data and resulted in an underestimation of inflation [7][12] Sector-Specific Price Movements - Economists predict noticeable rebounds in prices for hotels, airfare, and clothing, with expectations of accelerated inflation in food, core goods, and core services [8] - However, some analysts anticipate only moderate increases in owners' equivalent rent (OER), which could help control December's inflation data [8] Future Inflation Pressures - Inflationary pressures are shifting from service-related costs to tariff-related impacts, with companies increasingly looking to pass on rising input costs to consumers [8][9] - Concerns have been raised about a potential wave of price increases related to tariffs in early 2026, as businesses signal intentions to transfer higher costs to consumers [9] Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve faces a complex situation as inflation remains above the 2% target, with overall CPI readings fluctuating between 2.3% and 3.0% [10] - Market predictions suggest that the Fed may remain inactive in terms of rate cuts unless there is a significant drop in inflation in the first quarter [10] Market Reaction Predictions - Morgan Stanley has developed a predictive matrix for the core CPI month-over-month rate and its potential impact on the S&P 500 index, indicating various scenarios based on CPI outcomes [11][13] - The forex market is closely monitoring the upcoming CPI data, particularly the USD/JPY exchange rate, which typically reacts strongly to U.S. economic data [11][16]

Group 1 - The White House emphasizes that diplomacy is the "preferred" approach for the U.S. in response to the situation with Iran, although military options remain on the table if necessary [4][6] - President Trump stated that Iran has reached out to U.S. officials to propose negotiations, with meetings being arranged [6] Group 2 - Key Republican figures criticize the investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin reportedly warning Trump about potential market impacts [8] - Senator Thom Tillis vowed to oppose any Federal Reserve nominees from Trump until the investigation is resolved [8] Group 3 - Google’s Gemini will provide technical support for Apple’s AI features, including Siri, with reports suggesting Apple may pay around $1 billion for this technology [10] - This partnership confirms previous reports of collaboration between Apple and Google [10] Group 4 - Alphabet's market capitalization has officially surpassed $4 trillion, making it the fourth company globally to reach this milestone [12] - The stock price of Alphabet rose by 1% following the announcement of the partnership with Apple [12] Group 5 - Major bond investment firms warn that Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve could threaten its credibility in combating inflation, potentially leading to higher interest rates [14] - Concerns are raised that the instability caused by the Fed's independence being challenged could increase costs for mortgages and corporate loans [14] Group 6 - JPMorgan no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year and predicts a rate hike in 2027 based on recent employment data [16] - The employment report for December showed a decrease in the unemployment rate from 4.5% to 4.4%, alleviating concerns about a labor market slowdown [17]

今日沪期锌走势：今日沪期锌高开走强；沪锌2602主力合约开盘价24070元/吨，最高价24140元/吨，最 低价23895元/吨，昨日结算价23880元/吨，今日收盘价24125元/吨，张245元，涨幅1.03%。今日沪锌 2602主力合约成交量104562手减少38665手，持仓量73033手减少3574手。伦锌北京时间14：55最新价报 3179美元，涨30美元。 国内政策基调依旧乐观。税务总局发布公告，自2026年4月1日起取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。鉴于 我国对西北欧五国的光伏组件出口量占欧线整体货量的4% - 5%，该政策预计将引发光伏企业集中抢出 口，短期或支撑锌价走强。 基本面变化有限。供应端，国内锌矿供应偏紧局面持续，锌精矿现货加工费处于低位，国产矿供应短 缺。月初，国内各地区1月锌精矿加工费陆续确定，呈下行态势。随着炼厂逐步复产，1月现货市场货源 预计增多。1月9日当周上期所库存数据显示，锌锭社会库存累积，环比增加5.82%至7.39万吨，反映出 高锌价下下游采购意愿降低，锌市供需矛盾依旧存在。需求端，进入1月，终端企业忙于年末订单交 付，且部分下游有春节前备货计划，对锌的需求预计增加。不 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers have short - term impacts on oil prices, but supply surplus restricts upward space [2] - In the precious metals market, due to employment data and geopolitical chaos, there are opportunities for breakthrough and re - entry [3] - Different metals and commodities have their own supply - demand characteristics, and investment strategies vary accordingly [4][5][6] Summary by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions in Iran and the US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers drive short - term price recovery, but supply surplus in Q1 2026 limits upward space [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is directly affected by geopolitical risks, with potential demand increase; low - sulfur fuel oil faces supply increase pressure [22] - **Asphalt**: Oil price rebound, but asphalt lags behind. Venezuelan oil supply may impact domestic asphalt in February [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: US employment data and geopolitical chaos lead to precious metals challenging previous highs, with investment opportunities [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Price oscillates, affected by US employment and geopolitical situation, with a previous option strategy [4] - **Aluminum**: Short - term funds drive price up, approaching historical high, with high profit for aluminum plants [5] - **Zinc**: Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, with cost support, and price oscillates in a range [8] - **Lead**: Price oscillates in a low - level range, affected by inventory and cost [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Market oscillates, with changes in inventory and price influenced by policies [10] - **Tin**: Price has support, with attention on inventory changes and high option volatility [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Price oscillates at a high level, with active trading and strong support from the ore end [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: Price oscillates weakly due to supply - demand imbalance [13] - **Polysilicon**: Policy affects demand, with supply surplus and price seeking cost support [14] - **Iron and Steel** - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: Price oscillates, with changes in demand, output, and inventory, and profit margin repair for steel mills [15] - **Iron Ore**: Price rebounds, with changes in supply and demand, and inventory increase [16] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Price oscillates strongly, affected by supply - demand and policies [17][18] - **Silicon Manganese & Ferrosilicon**: Price drops, with different supply - demand situations, and callback buying is recommended [19][20] Chemicals - **Urea**: Price oscillates strongly in a range, with expected increase in daily output and approaching spring agricultural demand [24] - **Methanol**: Import is expected to decrease, but high inventory and downstream feedback may suppress the market [25] - **Pure Benzene**: Price oscillates, with expected reduction in far - month production and consideration of positive spread arbitrage [26] - **Styrene**: Price consolidates, affected by raw material inventory [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Market sentiment is different, with changes in supply, demand, and price [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC price drops, with potential for long - term capacity reduction and cost support; caustic soda oscillates with supply - demand pressure [29] - **PX & PTA**: Demand will decline during the Spring Festival, with cost support from oil price, and different expectations for PX and PTA [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply changes, with pressure in the short - term and potential improvement in Q2 [31] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: Demand weakens, with price following raw materials and different supply - demand situations [32] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: US and South American soybean production data are expected, with South American weather and US exports to be concerned, and price oscillating weakly [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Market oscillates, affected by Indonesian policy and Malaysian inventory [37] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: Market oscillates weakly, affected by the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister [38] - **Soybean No.1**: Price shows different trends, with attention on policies and market guidance [39] - **Corn**: Price oscillates widely, with low inventory and high auction performance [40] - **Pig**: Price is strong in the short - term, but supply pressure is high before the Spring Festival, and there may be a secondary bottom in the medium - long term [41] - **Egg**: Price is strong, with存栏 decline and bullish expectations for H1 2026 contracts [42] - **Cotton**: Price adjusts, with changes in inventory and demand, and attention on policy implementation [43] - **Sugar**: Price oscillates, with different production situations in India and Thailand, and expected increase in Guangxi [44] - **Apple**: Price rebounds, with increased demand for Spring Festival stocking and concerns about inventory removal [45] - **Wood**: Price is low, with low inventory providing support [46] - **Pulp**: Price oscillates, with limited upward space due to weak demand [47] Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Policy may push up short - term freight rates, but the long - term impact is uncertain [21] - **Stock Index**: A - shares are likely to continue to oscillate strongly, with growth and cyclical styles dominant [48] - **Treasury Bond**: Price drops slightly, with focus on the flattening of the yield curve [49]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar rebounded against the US dollar after three consecutive days of decline, influenced by the overall weakening of the US dollar [1] - The US dollar is under pressure due to uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's outlook, particularly related to political and legal risks surrounding the Fed's internal affairs [1] - A criminal investigation has been launched against Fed Chairman Jerome Powell regarding potential misstatements to Congress about the scale of a renovation project at the Fed's Washington headquarters, which has weakened market confidence in the Fed's independence and policy stability [1] Group 2 - Domestic data in Australia shows a moderate performance, with a 0.5% month-on-month decline in job advertisements for December, indicating a continued decrease in labor demand [2] - Household spending increased by 1.0% month-on-month in November, lower than the revised 1.4% in October, reflecting cautious consumer behavior amid high interest rates and persistent inflation [3] - The upcoming quarterly CPI data is a focal point for assessing any substantial changes in inflation trends [4] Group 3 - The US dollar index has been weakening, currently hovering around 98.90, influenced by various data and policy expectations [4] - December's US employment data was below market expectations, reinforcing the likelihood that the Fed will maintain interest rates in January, with non-farm payrolls adding only 50,000 jobs [4] - The labor market shows internal disparities, with the unemployment rate slightly decreasing to 4.4% and average hourly earnings year-on-year growth rising to 3.8% [4] Group 4 - The US Treasury Secretary has stated that lower interest rates can help unlock economic growth potential, suggesting that monetary policy should not be overly delayed [5] - Mixed signals are present in other US economic indicators, with initial jobless claims slightly rising and continued claims significantly increasing, indicating a slowdown in the re-employment rate for some unemployed individuals [5] - Australia's trade surplus narrowed significantly in November, with exports declining and imports slightly increasing, providing limited fundamental support for the Australian dollar [5] Group 5 - Technically, the Australian dollar is fluctuating around 0.6700, attempting to return to a previously formed upward channel [7] - The relative strength index on the daily chart remains above the midline, indicating that short-term momentum has not completely weakened [7] - If the exchange rate continues to stay within the channel, previous high points may come back into focus, while support levels near short-term and medium-term moving averages will be monitored [7]

Group 1 - The global MMA and acrylate market will face uneven demand, changing trade flows, and cautious procurement attitudes in 2026, despite signs of tightening supply in some regions [1] - In Europe, MMA demand is weak in Q1 2026, but the market is expected to tighten due to the closure of arbitrage opportunities from Asia, with local producers competing for contracts [1] - The average CIF price of MMA in Northwest Europe was €1297.18/ton in November 2025, nearing the offshore price from Asia, leading to a halt in imports [1] Group 2 - Middle Eastern low-cost MMA supplies are pressuring the European market, contributing to price declines, while the LiMA facility in Texas is ramping up production, potentially increasing U.S. exports to Europe [2] - The MMA export volume from the U.S. is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.46% over the next five years, positioning the U.S. as a net exporter [2] - In the acrylate market, buyers in Europe are securing attractive contract discounts, with a preference for long-term contracts to ensure stable supply [2] Group 3 - The U.S. MMA market's performance will heavily depend on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, as real estate demand constitutes 85% to 90% of MMA's end-use [3] - Despite maintenance at key facilities, U.S. MMA spot prices remained between 87 to 91 cents/lb in Q4 2025, with a modest demand increase of 1% to 2% expected in 2026 [3] - The U.S. acrylate market faces challenges, with weak downstream demand and complex trade flows due to tariff policies, leading to a shift towards Latin American sources [3] Group 4 - In Asia, MMA prices are expected to decline in 2026 due to weak demand and high inventories, with Chinese and Southeast Asian offshore prices continuing to fall [4] - India's BA market is undergoing structural changes with new domestic production capabilities, reducing reliance on imports and leading to the lowest prices since the pandemic [4] - The total BA production capacity in India is projected to reach 280,000 tons/year, meeting 70% to 75% of domestic demand, fundamentally altering market dynamics [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Justice is conducting a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, focusing on the renovation project of the Federal Reserve headquarters and whether Powell misled Congress regarding the project [1][2][3] Group 1: Investigation Details - The investigation was initiated by the U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Columbia and approved by Jeanine Pirro in November 2022, examining Powell's public statements and expenditure records related to the $2.5 billion renovation project [1][3] - Powell has denied that the investigation is a result of his testimony or the renovation project, asserting that the threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve's commitment to setting interest rates based on public interest rather than presidential preferences [2][3] Group 2: Political Context - The investigation highlights the ongoing conflict between Trump and the Federal Reserve, with Trump pressuring Powell to significantly lower interest rates and threatening legal action over the renovation project [3][4] - Trump has indicated he has selected a successor for Powell, with the announcement expected soon, as Powell's term as chairman ends in May 2024, although he will remain a board member until January 2028 [2][6] Group 3: Renovation Project - The renovation project, which began in 2022 and is expected to be completed by 2027, involves the expansion and modernization of the Marriner S. Eccles building and another structure, with a budget overrun of approximately $700 million [5] - Powell testified in June 2022 that there were no plans for luxury amenities such as a private elevator or restaurant, emphasizing that the project has evolved and some initial features have been removed [5]

分行业看，服务类岗位延续增长态势：餐饮酒吧行业新增2.7万个岗位，医疗保健行业贡献2.1万个就业 机会，社会救助领域新增1.7万个岗位，三大领域合计贡献当月绝大部分就业增长。而零售行业表现疲 软，减少2.5万个岗位；政府部门仅新增2000个岗位，增长乏力。 薪资方面，2025年12月平均时薪环比增长0.3%，符合市场预期；同比增长3.8%，较预期高出0.2个百分 点，显示劳动力市场虽增速放缓，但薪资粘性仍存。 1月9日，美国劳工统计局发布的2025年12月就业报告显示，"就业增长不及预期但失业率下降、薪资稳 定" 的混合特征，反映出劳动力市场在经济增速强劲背景下的结构性调整。全年就业增长大幅放缓显示 市场供需趋于平衡，而薪资与消费数据的稳健表现，为美国经济平稳收官提供了重要支撑。市场普遍预 期美联储1月的议息会议将维持利率不变。 就业数据好坏参半 报告显示，去年12月非农就业人数经季节性调整后新增5万人，低于道琼斯预期的7.3万人，且不及11月 向下修正后的5.6万人；但失业率意外回落至4.4%，优于4.5%的预期值，展现出市场韧性与矛盾性并存 的特征。 报告显示，2025年全年非农就业平均每月增长4.9万人 ...

报告显示，2025年全年非农就业平均每月增长4.9万人，较2024年的16.8万人大幅放缓，反映出劳动力市场扩张节奏持续降温。同时，前两个 月数据遭遇下修：11月就业人数较初始值下调8000人至5.6万人，10月的就业减少规模则从10.5万人扩大至17.3万人。10月和11月新增就业人 数合计向下修正7.6万人。 分行业看，服务类岗位延续增长态势：餐饮酒吧行业新增2.7万个岗位，医疗保健行业贡献2.1万个就业机会，社会救助领域新增1.7万个岗位， 三大领域合计贡献当月绝大部分就业增长。而零售行业表现疲软，减少2.5万个岗位；政府部门仅新增2000个岗位，增长乏力。 1月9日，美国劳工统计局发布的2025年12月就业报告显示，"就业增长不及预期但失业率下降、薪资稳定" 的混合特征，反映出劳动力 市场在经济增速强劲背景下的结构性调整。全年就业增长大幅放缓显示市场供需趋于平衡，而薪资与消费数据的稳健表现，为美国经济 平稳收官提供了重要支撑。市场普遍预期美联储1月的议息会议将维持利率不变。 就业数据好坏参半 报告显示，去年12月非农就业人数经季节性调整后新增5万人，低于道琼斯预期的7.3万人，且不及11月向下修正后的 ...

这份数据被视为政府停摆后的首份"回归常态"的就业报告。然而，由于史上最长停摆的影响仍在消化， 未来数月的就业数据仍可能存在扭曲，加之就业统计长期面临的信息采集难题，投资者解读难度依旧不 小。 市场预期：就业温和增长，失业率或略降 路透预测显示，12月非农就业预计新增6万人，低于11月的6.4万人；失业率料从4.6%下降至4.5%。 其他劳动力市场指标显示就业动能仍在延续。ADP报告显示，上月私营部门新增就业4.1万人；服务业 就业指标七个月来首次回到扩张区间，显示招聘活动回暖。 劳工统计局JOLTS调查显示，11月职位空缺从10月的740万个降至710万，但辞职人数回升、裁员数量下 降，反映劳动力需求仍存韧性，也揭示市场释放与吸纳之间的不确定平衡。 对于新增就业规模的预估分歧依然明显，区间从2.5万到15.5万不等。《华尔街日报》调查的经济学家给 出的共识预期为增加7.3万。 T. Rowe Price首席美国经济学家布莱丽娜·乌鲁奇（Blerina Uruçi）认为，"就业增长仍将保持稳定"，并 预计新增6至7万个岗位，略高于共识预估。 盈透证券高级经济学家何塞·托雷斯（José Torres）更为乐观，预 ...