Market Performance - The US stock market experienced a strong performance, with all three major indices closing higher on July 3, 2023. The Nasdaq rose by 1.02%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.83%, and the Dow Jones gained 0.77% [1] - The S&P 500 index reached its seventh historical closing high of the year, while the Nasdaq achieved its fourth historical closing high of the year [1] Technology Sector - Major US technology stocks saw a collective increase, with Nvidia rising over 1.3% to reach a historical high, peaking at a market capitalization of $3.92 trillion during intraday trading [2] Chinese Stocks - Chinese concept stock Brain Rejuvenation Technology experienced a significant surge, with intraday gains exceeding 170%, leading to multiple trading halts. The stock has increased by 21,300% year-to-date, making it one of the best-performing stocks in the US market for 2025 [3] Economic Indicators - Recent macroeconomic data has alleviated concerns regarding a downturn in the US economy. In June, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, significantly surpassing expectations, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1% [6] - The ISM non-manufacturing PMI for June reported a value of 50.8, above the expected 50.5, indicating continued growth in the services sector. The new orders index also exceeded expectations, coming in at 51.3 [7] - Industrial orders in May saw a month-on-month increase of 8.2%, marking the largest growth since 2014, while factory orders excluding defense rose by 7.5% [7] Bond Market - The strong employment report has led to an increase in US Treasury yields, with the market now anticipating a 93% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in its upcoming meeting [7][8] Oil Market - International oil prices experienced a sharp decline on the evening of July 3, with both WTI and Brent crude oil prices dropping over 1% at one point before recovering slightly [11] - The US Treasury Department announced sanctions against multiple entities involved in facilitating Iranian oil trade, which may impact oil market dynamics [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD pair has recently retreated from a high of 1.1800, with the market focusing on upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. dollar gained momentum amid rising yields, contributing to the Euro's decline after a nine-day increase [2] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has renewed demand for risk assets, putting pressure on the dollar and supporting the Euro and other risk-related currencies [4] - Trade tensions remain a focal point as the deadline for U.S. tariff suspensions approaches, with ongoing negotiations between the EU and the UK regarding Brexit [5] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% in June but raised inflation and unemployment forecasts due to tariff-related cost pressures [6] - The European Central Bank (ECB) recently lowered the deposit facility rate to 2.00%, with further easing contingent on a significant decline in external demand [6] Group 3: Market Positioning - As of June 24, speculative net long positions in the Euro rose to over 111.1K contracts, the highest level since January 2024, while commercial traders' net short positions increased to 164.3K contracts, the peak since December 2023 [7] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Initial resistance is at the 2025 high of 1.1829, with potential targets at the September 2018 high of 1.1815 and the June 2018 high of 1.1852 [8] - Initial support is at the 55-day simple moving average of 1.1410, followed by the weekly low of 1.1210 and the May low of 1.1064 [8] - Momentum indicators remain positive, with the RSI above 74 indicating overbought conditions but also potential for further gains [8] Group 5: Long-term Outlook - In the absence of new geopolitical or macroeconomic shocks, the Euro's upward trend is expected to resume, supported by reduced risk aversion and expectations of Fed easing [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates is influenced by President Trump's tariff policies, which have created significant economic uncertainty and impacted inflation forecasts [1][4][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the central bank has refrained from cutting interest rates this year primarily due to the uncertainties brought about by the government's changing tariff agenda [4][5]. - Powell emphasized that the Fed's approach is data-driven rather than politically motivated, receiving support from other central bank leaders, including European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde [4][6]. - The Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged has occurred four times since the beginning of the year, despite increasing pressure from the White House for rapid rate cuts [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Impact of Tariffs - The ongoing trade tensions and tariffs have led to a reduction in the total inventory of goods in the U.S., with companies experiencing price increases of approximately 8% to 15% on many products [8]. - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has declined, with the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) dropping to 93, the lowest level since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, primarily due to concerns over tariffs and their impact on personal finances [9]. - The unpredictability of the current administration's policies has cast a shadow over the economic and employment outlook, raising fears of a potential recession [9]. Group 3: Manufacturing Sector Concerns - Experts warn that tariffs are not a panacea for U.S. economic issues, as the return of manufacturing jobs will require significant time and investment, which is hindered by the unstable economic environment [12]. - Even if manufacturing were to return to the U.S., it may not lead to an increase in jobs due to higher operational costs and a shift towards automation to offset tariff impacts [13]. - Historical data indicates that during Trump's previous term, while manufacturing jobs increased by 0.4%, this was offset by rising costs and job losses due to retaliatory tariffs, suggesting that significant job growth in manufacturing is unlikely in the foreseeable future [13][14].

ING Bank NV策略师Chris Turner表示，在关税推高通胀并迫使美联储推迟降息后，美元将迎来几个月的 上涨。Turner表示，美元今年螺旋式下行后有望获得阶段性支撑，因为贸易关税将从8月起刺激消费者 价格加速上涨，制约美联储降息。在此期间，他预计欧元兑美元汇率将短暂回落至1.13-1.15区间，日元 兑美元汇率将跌至145-150。这意味着欧元和日元均将下跌约4%。"我们认为美联储直到12月可能都会 维持利率不变，"Turner表示，"届时，美元或许会出现小幅调整。"（彭博） ...

智通财经7月1日电，随着鲍威尔重申美联储将对利率保持耐心，美国国债收益率小幅回吐涨幅。 ...

国投期货研究院 (责金属) 隔夜贵金属小幅反弹。近期随着伊以停火市场风险偏好向好，金价回吐战争溢价，市场关注点将转 向关税谈判和美联储。特朗普对关税延期不置可否,鲍威尔认为利率的变化仍取决于经济走向,关 注本周一系列重要数据验证，今晚将公布美国ISM制造业PMI和JOLTs职位空缺数。 【铜】 隔夜铜价收复盘中跌幅，美元指数因财政法案与7月降息概率延续弱势，同时，加拿大取消数字关 税,美股再创历史新高。沪铜夜盘阳线,昨日现铜79990元,上海铜升水130元,精废价差扩至2100 元以上，SMM社库12.61万吨。技术上，短线沪铜涨势可能打开到8.1万。中长期趋势交易仍建议关 注高位空配。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝震荡。周初铝锭铝棒社库较上周四小幅增加,华东现货升水继续下降30元至70元,华南铝 棒加工费跌至负值,终端消费前置和淡季负反馈初步显现。近期宏观风险偏好向好推动有色强势, 沪铝指数持仓处于近年高位显示市场分歧大, 警惕阶段性回调风险。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年07月01日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价延续震荡偏弱走势，布伦特09合约涨0.44%。伊以冲突降温后原 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The market is focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, with officials indicating a cautious approach to potential rate cuts in July, with a probability of less than 20% [1] - Most expectations lean towards a rate cut in September or later, with a slight probability of over 50% for a September cut [1] - Labor market shows signs of slowing but remains strong, supporting the Fed's wait-and-see approach [1] Group 2: Cryptocurrency Market - Grayscale's ETH sell-off has been accounted for, but buying power remains, indicating a net inflow, although the amount is low, reflecting limited interest from traditional investors [4] - ETH has outperformed BTC in terms of net inflow, with ETH's inflow increasing by 8 times compared to BTC's 2 times [4] - BTC has not experienced large-scale liquidations recently, suggesting a potential for 20% volatility, typically indicating a trend [5] - BTC closed above 107,000, with a short-term upward wedge pattern indicating potential support [5] - ETH's holdings by U.S. ETF investors have surpassed 4 million, marking a historical high [6] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Strategy - The current market sentiment shows a divergence, with skepticism towards BTC's future while maintaining optimism for altcoins [8] - Strategies suggest a dual approach of long and short positions, especially in a volatile market [9] - Recent projects in the primary market have shown promising performance, contrasting with the sluggish secondary market [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the recent ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, which has alleviated tensions in the Middle East and led to a significant drop in oil prices, benefiting global inflation control efforts [2] - Following the ceasefire, oil prices fell nearly 3%, after a previous drop of nearly 9%, bringing U.S. crude futures close to their lowest point before the Israeli attacks on Iran [2] - The U.S. dollar weakened due to the easing geopolitical tensions, with notable declines against the Japanese yen and British pound, as investors shifted their focus to the upcoming congressional testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [2] Group 2 - In the context of uncertain interest rate outlooks, the U.S. dollar index fell from 99.40 to below 98, indicating a potential downward trend if it breaches the 97.60 level [3] - The Federal Reserve has not taken action on interest rates this year, influenced by inflation from Trump's tariff policies, but there are emerging divisions within the Fed regarding potential rate cuts, with some officials leaning towards a reduction in July [2] - Powell is expected to face questions regarding the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates and its future borrowing cost outlook, especially after Trump's call for a significant rate cut [2]

有三大主要原因可能让关税问题重新咆哮着回到投资者的视野中。 第一便是地缘政治近期盖过了贸易战的风头。近几周的以色列-伊朗冲突占据了投资者的大量注意力， 但该事件的风险似乎正在减弱。就波动性而言，下一只落地的靴子很可能就是特朗普贸易战的"新篇 章"。 其次，关税对通胀的影响可能存在滞后性。经济学家警告说，近几个月显示通胀降温的数据可能不会持 久。摩根士丹利表示，这是因为关税对价格的影响可能需要一段时间才能显现，并补充说，他们认为通 胀可能在今年夏末有所回升。美联储主席鲍威尔也表示，在6月、7月和8月将会看到关税对通胀产生显 著影响。 最后，美联储的政策可能因关税的滞后影响而变得复杂。市场，以及特朗普本人一直在呼吁美联储降低 利率，但如果通胀抬头，那将成为美联储和鲍威尔维持利率不变的又一个理由。 近期，关于关税的大部分焦点都集中在美联储维持利率不变的决定上，而特朗普对此一直持高度批评态 度。 摩根士丹利发出警告：注意7月9日！届时一场新的风暴将重新席卷全球市场…… 尽管市场因周二以色列与伊朗达成停火而松了一口气，但投资者很快就要重新思量另一个曾在今年早些 时候引爆市场波动的问题。 摩根士丹利在近期发表的一份报告中 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the simultaneous decline of gold and the US dollar due to a decrease in safe-haven demand, influenced by geopolitical events and market reactions to statements from President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell [1][5][12] - On Tuesday, the international spot gold price opened at $3368.34, reaching a high of $3370.56 and a low of $3295.29, closing at $3323.74, down $44.45 or 1.32% [1] - The US dollar index opened at 98.38 points, with a high of 98.40 and a low of 97.69, closing at 97.96, down 420 points or 0.43% [3] Group 2 - The Wellxin precious metals index opened at 6747.72 points, with a high of 6776.92 and a low of 6604.47, closing at 6703.65, down 46.85 points or 0.69% [4] - The article notes that the market's reaction to the Israel-Iran conflict and subsequent ceasefire has led to a significant drop in gold prices, suggesting an overreaction in market sentiment [5][12] - Trump's comments on oil prices and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have had a notable impact on market dynamics, with Powell's statements influencing expectations around interest rate changes [12][19] Group 3 - The article discusses the unusual market behavior where both the dollar and commodity prices, including oil, are declining simultaneously, which is typically rare and indicates a potential economic downturn [5][17] - The relationship between the dollar and commodity markets is analyzed, suggesting that if the dollar enters a macro depreciation trend, commodity prices may not follow the same downward trajectory [16][19] - The article concludes that the current economic environment does not show clear signs of a financial crisis, and the macro bullish structure of commodity markets remains intact despite recent fluctuations [19]