Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have declined to their lowest level in over two weeks, with December gold futures closing at $3358.7 per ounce, down 0.57% [1] Group 1: Domestic Gold Prices - Some domestic gold jewelry brands have seen their prices drop to 979 yuan per gram, with specific prices for brands such as Zhou Shengsheng at 999 yuan per gram and Lao Miao at 1002 yuan per gram [3][4] Group 2: Market Analysis - The market remains cautious ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech, leading to a repositioning in the short-term precious metals market, which has contributed to further declines in gold and silver prices [6] - The dollar index has slightly increased, adding downward pressure on the precious metals market [6] - Despite short-term headwinds from position adjustments and reduced safe-haven demand, the long-term upward trend for precious metals is supported by the Federal Reserve's accommodative policy direction [6] - UBS has raised its gold price target for March 2026 by $100 to $3600 per ounce, citing ongoing macroeconomic risks in the U.S., a decline in dollar usage, and strong investment demand [6] - The World Gold Council reports that while central bank gold purchases slowed in Q2 2025, the volume remains 41% higher than the average from 2010 to 2021, indicating that central bank gold buying is still at a significantly high level [6][7] - The long-term advantages of gold in terms of safe-haven, inflation hedging, and value preservation are widely recognized in the industry [7]

当地时间8月20日，美股科技股全线重挫，纳指一度大跌近2%，跌破21000点，为8月7日以来首次；芯片股集体跳水，费城半导体指数一度暴跌超3%，英 伟达一度大跌近4%；其他大型科技股亦全线下挫。另外，华尔街"恐慌指数"VIX一度飙升超10%。 截至发稿，道琼斯指数跌0.11%，标普500指数跌0.55%，纳斯达克综合指数跌1.08%。 据券商中国，当前，华尔街的期权交易员对美股科技股暴跌的担忧日益加剧，正在大举抢购看跌期权对冲风险。 大型科技股普跌，截至发稿，苹果跌1.54%，特斯拉跌2.68%，亚马逊跌1.97%，脸书跌1.24%，谷歌跌1.16%，英伟达跌1.54%，微软跌0.77%。 | IF | 现价 | 涨跌幅▼ | | --- | --- | --- | | 微软(MICROSOFT) US MSFT | 505.840 | -0.77% | | 谷歌(ALPHABET)-A | | | | US GOOGL | 199.230 | -1.16% | | 脸书(META PLATFC | 742.163 | -1.24% | | US META | | | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 172. ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments significantly impact HSBC Holdings' stock performance, with 2025's interest rate stability and hints of future rate cuts leading to notable stock price volatility due to geopolitical risks and fiscal expansion pressures [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Transmission Mechanism - The Federal Reserve maintains the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5%, with only two rate cuts planned for 2025, totaling 50 basis points, which is below market expectations of four cuts [1] - Market expectations regarding the Fed's rate cut timing have fluctuated, causing stock price volatility; for instance, after the July 30 Fed meeting, the probability of a September rate cut dropped from 65% to 30%, resulting in a 2.3% drop in HSBC's Hong Kong stock [1] Group 2: Currency Fluctuations - The Fed's policies influence HSBC's cross-border business through the dollar exchange rate, impacting the company's operations and profitability [1] Group 3: Capital Flows - Adjustments in Fed policy lead to a global reallocation of capital, affecting HSBC's funding and investment strategies [1] Group 4: Credit Risk - The Fed's policies contribute to a slowdown in the U.S. economy, which in turn affects the credit quality of HSBC's loan assets [1] Group 5: Market Expectations - Uncertainty in the Fed's policy path amplifies valuation volatility for HSBC, with analysts revising profit expectations downwards; for example, the 2025 net profit forecast was reduced from $14.5 billion to $12.4 billion, a decline of 14.5% [1] Group 6: Asset and Liability Management - In HSBC's Americas business, loan pricing is linked to Fed rates, limiting the upside for new loan yields while only 35% of existing loans are floating rate, restricting benefits from rising rates [2] - The cost of deposits in the U.S. has risen to 2.1%, a 40 basis point increase from 2024, significantly higher than the 1.3% in Asia, further compressing net interest margins [2] - By Q2 2025, the net interest margin for HSBC's North American business narrowed to 2.8%, a year-on-year decline of 15 basis points [2] Group 7: Foreign Exchange Losses - In Q2 2025, the strong dollar led to exchange losses of $1.2 billion in HSBC's cross-border trade financing, accounting for 19% of the quarter's pre-tax profit [3] - To mitigate currency risk, HSBC increased its dollar hedging positions, resulting in a 25% year-on-year increase in derivative trading volume and an additional $300 million in trading costs [3] Group 8: Emerging Market Dynamics - The issuance of $1 trillion in U.S. debt under the "Big and Beautiful" act has raised U.S. Treasury yields, exacerbating capital outflow pressures from emerging markets, with HSBC's loan growth in Latin America slowing from 12% in 2024 to 5% in the first half of 2025 [3] - Conversely, the Fed's rate cut expectations have driven global capital back to Asia, with HSBC's wealth management business in Asia seeing net inflows of $23 billion, an 18% year-on-year increase, partially offsetting declines in the Americas [3] Group 9: Credit Quality Concerns - HSBC has increased provisions for U.S. commercial real estate loans by $1.9 billion in Q2 2025, a 90% year-on-year increase, reflecting rising default rates [3] - Despite low unemployment, the credit card loan default rate rose from 2.1% in 2024 to 2.7% in Q2 2025, with HSBC's U.S. credit card business non-performing loan rate increasing to 3.2% [3] Group 10: Valuation Compression - HSBC's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) decreased from 12.8 times at the beginning of 2025 to 9.3 times by the end of July, below the average of 10.5 times for Asian peers, indicating market concerns over its U.S. business profitability [4] Conclusion - The dynamic interplay between the Federal Reserve's policies and HSBC's stock price is influenced by multiple channels, including interest rates, currency fluctuations, capital flows, and credit risks, leading to increased stock price volatility amid geopolitical risks and fiscal pressures [4]

最新数据显示，美国生产者价格指数(PPI)升至3.3%的高位，而货币供应量M2的增长率正趋向5%的危险水平。这一组合令人回想起1970年代的通 胀周期，当时央行在通胀初步回落后过早放松政策，最终引发了更为严重的第二轮和第三轮通胀冲击。 美国货币供应量M2已重回疫情期间峰值水平，同时多项通胀指标显示价格压力正在重新积聚，引发市场对通胀"第二波"的担忧。经济学家警告 称，在当前货币环境下进一步宽松政策可能重演1970年代三轮通胀浪潮的历史悲剧。 分析师指出，虽然消费者价格指数(CPI)暂时保持相对稳定，但批发价格的上涨通常会传导至零售端，而货币供应量的快速增长为未来通胀提供了 充足"燃料"。当前形势下，美联储主席鲍威尔对降息的延缓可能是明智之举。 经济学家担心，如果政策制定者重复1970年代的错误——在通胀尚未完全消除时就急于刺激经济——美国可能面临比过去五年更为严重的价格冲 击。 货币供应重返高位，敲响通胀警钟 当前对通胀风险的评估，一个关键变量是M2货币供应量。数据显示，在2020年新冠疫情期间，美联储实施零利率并大幅扩张货币供应，导致M2 创下历史性增幅。随后，美联储通过加息等紧缩政策从系统中回笼了部分过剩 ...

来源：江苏新闻广播 当地时间周二，国际金价下跌，跌至两周多来最低水平。 国内部分品牌金饰克价跌至979元/克 记者注意到，国内部分品牌金饰克价跌至979元/克。截至发稿，周六福足金999价格为979元/克，足金 999.9为989元/克；周生生足金饰品价格为999元/克；老庙、周大福均为1002/克。 截至收盘，纽约商品交易所12月黄金期价收于每盎司3358.7美元，跌幅为0.57%。 | 今日黄金最新价格 | | 单位:元/克 更新时间:08-20 | | --- | --- | --- | | ** 周大福 | 周六福 | 膳 周生生 | | 1002.00 | 979.00 | 999.00 | | 金条价格 992.00 | 金条价格 874.00 | 金条价格 884.00 | | 周大生 | 册 潮宏基 | ■ 六福珠宝 | | 1002.00 | 1002.00 | 1002.00 | | 铂金价格 541.00 | 铂金价格 541.00 | 金条价格 992.00 | | 的 老凤祥 | 命 老庙黄金 | 6 中国黄金 | | 1000.00 | 997.00 | 771.80 | | 足金 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing a downward trend, influenced by geopolitical developments and monetary policy signals from the Federal Reserve [1][2]. - On August 20, gold prices fluctuated, reaching a high of $3343 before dropping to a low of $3314, closing at $3315, marking four consecutive days of decline [1]. - President Trump's comments on seeking peace in Ukraine have created a positive sentiment for potential conflict resolution, which may reduce gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1]. Group 2 - Technically, gold has shown a lack of clear rebound after dropping to the 3320-15 range, indicating strong bearish sentiment in the market [2]. - The short-term outlook for gold is heavily dependent on signals from the Federal Reserve, with a focus on maintaining short positions and waiting for potential rebounds before entering trades [2]. - Suggested trading strategy includes shorting gold at 3325-3324 with a stop loss at 3330, targeting a drop to the 3300-3280 range, while considering a long position if prices stabilize above 3330 [3].

基本面： 周三（8月20日）亚盘时段，现货黄金小幅延续隔夜跌势测试3310一线支撑，目前暂交投于3314美元附近。周二，现货黄金价格小幅下跌0.5%，收报每盎司 3315.45美元，甚至一度触及8月1日以来的最低点3314.80美元，本次下跌受到了美元走强、地缘政治不确定性以及美联储政策预期的多重影响。投资者们正 屏息以待本周晚些时候在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的美联储年度研讨会，特别是主席鲍威尔周五的讲话，这被视为可能决定黄金未来走势的关键节点，市场 担忧鲍威尔可能会淡化降息前景，这给美元提供反弹动能，并压制金价。 美联储的政策动向无疑是黄金价格波动的核心驱动力。然而，市场对鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔讲话的预期却充满不确定性。鲍威尔以往在该会议上的表态往往具 有里程碑意义，例如2022年他曾释放出抗击通胀的鹰派立场，如今投资者担心他可能会淡化9月降息的预期，尤其是考虑到7月生产者物价指数（PPI）高于 预期，这在一定程度上打击了降息押注。根据CME的FedWatch工具，交易员们认为9月份降息25个基点的可能性高达85%。 除了货币政策，地缘政治因素也在悄然影响黄金的避险属性。美国总统特朗普周二表示，他希望俄罗斯总统普 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily influenced by the strength of the US dollar, geopolitical uncertainties, and expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policies, particularly ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium [1][3][9]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - As of August 20, spot gold is trading around $3315.04 per ounce, having dropped 0.5% to close at $3315.45 on the previous day, reaching a low of $3314.80, close to the 100-day moving average support level of $3311.15 [1]. - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to a 0.15% increase in the US dollar index, which rose to 98.27, making gold more expensive for investors holding other currencies [5]. - UBS has raised its gold price target to $3600 by March 2026, citing ongoing macroeconomic risks in the US, a decline in dollar usage, and strong investment demand, suggesting that the current drop in gold prices may be temporary [5]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's policy direction is a key driver of gold price volatility, with traders estimating an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, which typically benefits gold due to lower opportunity costs [3]. - Market expectations are uncertain regarding Fed Chair Powell's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole, with concerns that he may downplay the likelihood of a September rate cut, potentially strengthening the dollar and exerting downward pressure on gold [3][10]. - The upcoming release of the July Fed meeting minutes is anticipated to provide insights into the US economic outlook, which could further influence gold prices depending on the Fed's hawkish or dovish stance [3][9]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical factors are also influencing gold's safe-haven appeal, with President Trump expressing hopes for a resolution to the Ukraine conflict, which could diminish gold's attractiveness as a safe asset if peace negotiations progress [6]. - However, uncertainties surrounding the willingness of parties to reach an agreement may continue to support gold prices, as any breakdown in negotiations could reignite risk aversion among investors [6]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Data - Recent macroeconomic data presents a mixed picture, with July housing starts increasing by 5.2% to 1.428 million units, while building permits fell by 2.8% to a five-year low of 1.35 million units, indicating a cautious outlook among builders [7]. - The yield curve's bear steepening reflects rising inflation expectations, which negatively impacts gold as higher yields attract funds to bonds over non-yielding assets [8]. - Stock market performance, particularly the decline in tech stocks like Nvidia by 3.5%, is also affecting gold sentiment, as investors hedge against potential hawkish signals from the Fed [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are experiencing a downward trend, with traders awaiting guidance from the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes [1][2] - Gold prices fluctuated, reaching a high of $3343 but later dropping to a low of $3314, closing at $3315, marking four consecutive days of decline [1] - Positive signals regarding the potential end of the Ukraine conflict, as indicated by U.S. President Trump's comments, may reduce gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2 - Technically, gold has dropped to the 3320-3315 range, showing no clear signs of a rebound, indicating strong bearish sentiment in the market [2] - The short-term outlook for gold is heavily dependent on signals from the Federal Reserve, with a focus on maintaining short positions and waiting for potential rebounds before entering trades [2] - Suggested trading strategy includes shorting gold at 3325-3324 with a stop loss at 3330, targeting a drop to the 3300-3280 range [3]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The upcoming Jackson Hole annual meeting (August 21-23) is highly anticipated, with the Federal Reserve's latest policy signals potentially acting as a key catalyst for gold price movements [1] - The market is currently experiencing cautious consolidation at high levels due to heightened uncertainty from the Russia-Ukraine situation and comments from Trump regarding tariffs [1] - The focus is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on September 17, with a recent economist survey on August 15 indicating ongoing market divergence in interpreting Fed policies [1] Group 2: Gold Price Technical Analysis - Gold prices have shown a slight breakdown in the daily chart, with short-term trends focusing on support around 3310 [3] - A descending wedge pattern has formed on the 4-hour chart, suggesting potential bullish breakout risks, but is currently constrained by the 100-period simple moving average at $3346.98 [3] - Key resistance is identified at $3370, with a breakthrough potentially leading to targets of $3400 and the early August high of $3410; however, a drop below $3330 could direct prices towards $3300 and possibly test the August low of $3282 [3] Group 3: Silver Market Analysis - From a technical perspective, silver is hovering above the neckline of a bearish double top pattern in the $38.50-$39.00 range, indicating a loss of upward momentum [5] - A decisive drop below the support level of $37.50 could open the door for further declines to $36.50 or even $35.50 [5] - The silver market opened at $38.024, experienced fluctuations, and closed at $37.377, forming a large bearish candle, with short-term trading strategies focusing on buying on dips and selling on rebounds [5]