偿债能力：龙头降杠杆，其余加杠杆 据同花顺数据，龙头企业24年、25Q1资产负债率同比下滑，24年：宁德时代(YOY-4.10pct);25Q1：宁德 时代(YOY-3.74pct)，其他公司加杠杆以缓解资金压力。新能源汽车产业链经营性现金持续流向电池龙 头，2024/2025Q1全产业链合计2874/420亿元，动力电池龙头宁德时代、比亚迪合计2304/414亿元，分 别占比80%/99%。 经营效率：全产业链承压 据同花顺数据，延续23年产业链趋势特征，24年全产业链96%企业固定资产周转率均下降，25Q1行业 资产周转率降速明显减弱，但仍有57%企业固定资产周转率同比下降。24年、25Q1全产业链存货周转 率整体平稳。24年产业链中约79%企业应收账款周转率下降，延续23年产业链整体账期拉长的趋势， 25Q1行业整体仍处于出清阶段，没有明显变化。 智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，24年锂电产业链样本70%企业ROE同比下降，行业仍在出清 阶段;锂电产业链整体ROE有所修复，其中铜箔环节ROE改善明显。新能源汽车产业链利润结构持续分 化，电池环节仍为主导，龙头企业凭借稳定盈利能力在下行周期中占据优 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs significantly lowered the US Q1 GDP growth forecast to -0.8% due to an unexpected widening of the trade deficit in March, driven by increased consumer goods imports [1] - Morgan Stanley highlighted that uncertainty surrounding tariff policies and questions regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve may lead foreign investors to reduce their investments in the US [2] - Pantheon Macroeconomics indicated that the uncertainty from tariffs will limit any significant rebound in the French economy, projecting stagnation for the remainder of the year [3] Group 2 - ING reported that the euro has lost its status as a preferred alternative to the dollar, with most G10 currencies performing better than the euro recently [4] - ING also noted that news of potential reductions in auto tariffs by the Trump administration helped the dollar recover some of its recent losses [5] - Capital Economics stated that the impact of tariffs on the Eurozone economy is expected to intensify, with the economic sentiment index dropping from 95.2 to 93.6 in April [6] Group 3 - Deutsche Bank suggested that the European Central Bank should act more decisively to address increasing supply shocks and rising inflation [8] - Tianfeng Securities projected that the aerospace engine sector may stabilize and recover, with a significant portion of military electronic stocks held by active funds [9] - CITIC Securities reported that the implementation of new tax refund policies for departing travelers could boost domestic consumption, estimating a potential market space of nearly 100 billion [10]

Group 1: Fixed Income Market - The recent volatility in the US Treasury market is largely attributed to the upcoming June maturity, which may be overestimated in terms of its impact on financial markets [2] - In the short term, the supply pressure from maturing US Treasuries is expected to be limited, with a more significant focus on the debt ceiling adjustments anticipated in Q3 [2] - Long-term demand for US Treasuries may face a downward trend, with potential alternatives including European and Japanese bonds, as well as gold [2] Group 2: Technology Sector - The report discusses India's potential as the next manufacturing hub for Apple, highlighting the competitive tariff advantages for Indian exports compared to China [4] - Apple theoretically has the capacity to produce the required number of iPhones in India, but initial production will still rely on Chinese exports due to current limitations [4] - The localization of components in India is still in its early stages, with significant reliance on supply chains from other Asian countries for critical parts [4] Group 3: Energy and New Energy - The lithium battery production forecast for May shows a slight decline in overall production, primarily due to the cancellation of mandatory storage policies and the impact of US tariffs on exports [5] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook for the lithium battery industry remains positive, driven by new vehicle models and technologies [5] - Recent power outages in Spain, Portugal, and southern France have underscored the need for investment in grid upgrades and DC grid technology, presenting opportunities for Chinese power equipment companies [6] Group 4: Media and Publishing - Phoenix Media reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 3.226 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year decline, but a significant increase in net profit due to continued tax incentives [7] - The company maintains a stable core business and is rated as a "buy" based on its solid performance and favorable tax policies [7] Group 5: Financial Sector - The report indicates that the China Construction Bank's Q1 2025 net profit and revenue showed slight year-over-year changes, with a focus on asset quality and credit expansion [9] - The bank's diversified income sources and stable operations support a "buy" rating [9] Group 6: Consumer Goods - The report highlights the strong performance of China National Offshore Oil Corporation, with Q1 revenues showing a significant year-over-year increase, driven by stable oil and gas production [20] - The company is expected to maintain a "buy" rating due to its robust operational performance and project advancements [20] Group 7: Real Estate - The report notes that China Petroleum's Q1 2025 revenue and net profit exceeded expectations, attributed to increased natural gas production and sales [34] - The company is rated as "increase" based on its strong performance and potential for further growth in the natural gas sector [34]

Group 1: CATL's New Battery Products - CATL held its first Super Technology Day on April 21, unveiling three new battery products, including the Xiaoyao dual-core battery, which features a "dual-core architecture" with two independent energy zones using different chemical systems to address the limitations of traditional single-chemical batteries [1] - The second product introduced is the second-generation Shenxing ultra-fast charging battery, a lithium iron phosphate battery focused on fast charging capabilities [1] - The third product is the sodium-ion battery, representing the latest upgrade in sodium-ion technology [1] Group 2: Geely's New Battery Group - Geely announced the establishment of a new battery industry group, Zhejiang Jiyao Tongxing Energy Technology Co., Ltd., on April 23 during the 2025 Shanghai Auto Show, consolidating its battery operations [2] - The new group will unify existing battery brands, including Jinzhang Battery and Shendun Short Blade Battery, under the Shen Dun Jinzhang Battery brand [2] - The company was founded on January 26, 2025, with a registered capital of 1 billion yuan, focusing on engineering and technology research, battery manufacturing, and sales [2] Group 3: Nandu Power's Hong Kong Listing Plans - Nandu Power announced on April 23 that it is planning to issue shares overseas (H-shares) and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its global strategy and competitiveness [4] - The company is currently in discussions with relevant intermediaries regarding the specifics of the H-share listing, with details yet to be finalized [4] - The H-share listing will not result in changes to the controlling shareholder or actual controller of Nandu Power [4]

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 4 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 二、日度数据监测 | | | 锂电产业链产品价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指 标 | 单 位 | 2025-04-24 | 2025-04-23 | 涨 跌 | | | 期 货 | 主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 68300 | 68980 | -680 | | | | 连续合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 68380 | 69060 | -680 | | | | 锂辉石精矿(6%,CIF中国) | 美元/吨 | 795 | 795 | 0 | | | | 锂云母（Li2O:1.5%-2.0%） | 元/吨 | 950 | 950 | 0 | | | 锂 矿 | 锂云母（Li2O:2.0%-2.5%） | 元/吨 | 1610 | 1610 | 0 | | | | 磷锂铝石（Li2O:6%-7%） | 元/吨 | 6700 | 6700 | 0 | | | | 磷锂铝石（Li2O:7%-8%） | 元/吨 | 7875 | 7875 | 0 ...

近日外媒消息称，LG财团计划取消一项超600亿元人民币的投资，该笔投资项目位于印尼，于2020年末签订，原投资计划涵盖电池制造过程 的多个环节。 报道称， 该财团包括LG新能源、LG化学、LX国际公司和其他合作伙伴，此前一直在与印尼政府和国有企业合作，为电动汽车电池建立"端到 端价值链"。 本次决定撤回的 印尼电动汽车电池供应链项目， 价值142万亿印尼盾（约84.5亿美元，折合人民币为617亿元） ， 计划涵盖从原材料采购 到生产前体、正极材料和制造电池的整个过程。 目前，由于 全球电动汽车需求暂时放缓或停滞不前，该财团已与印尼政府协商，决定撤回该项目。 对此， LG新能源表示，公司 考虑到市场状况和投资环境，决定退出该项目。不过将继续与现代汽车集团合作的现代LG印尼绿色动力（HLI Green Power）电池工厂等现有业务。 据了解， HLI项目位于 雅加达附近的卡拉旺产业集群，与现代汽车的现有汽车生产基地相邻， 2024年7月，该合资工厂正式落成，成为 印 尼首座电动汽车电池电芯生产厂，电池产能达到10GWh。 同时，LG新能源与 现代还计划启动二期项目以扩大电池产能，产能可能扩容至20 GWh。 从 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the lithium carbonate futures 2505 contract dropped 0.4% to 70,500 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 71,550 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 69,650 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 68,900 yuan/ton, and the battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 74,025 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory remained at 29,262 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output of lithium carbonate decreased by 574 tons to 17,388 tons, mainly from spodumene - based lithium extraction. The expected output in April is nearly 80,000 tons, and the daily average output increased by 4% month - on - month. On the demand side, the output of ternary materials increased significantly month - on - month, the output of lithium iron phosphate remained the same month - on - month, and the daily average consumption of lithium carbonate increased by about 5% month - on - month. The inventory turnover days of ternary cathode materials increased slightly, and the inventory of lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly. The weekly inventory increased by 585 tons to 131,605 tons, with a decrease in other aspects and an increase in both upstream and downstream [3]. - The price is expected to fluctuate around 70,000 yuan/ton. In the short term, attention should be paid to the upstream production suspension and reduction, warehouse receipt inventory, and lithium ore price trends. In the medium term, the equilibrium price center will move down, the market purchasing activity is average, and the downstream finished product inventory pressure is relatively large [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract and the continuous contract of lithium carbonate futures was 70,500 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan from the previous day. The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) remained at 809 US dollars/ton. The prices of various types of lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone decreased to varying degrees. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged, while the prices of various types of lithium hydroxide decreased by 50 yuan/ton, except for the CIF price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide in China, Japan, and South Korea, which remained unchanged. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained at 58,500 yuan/ton [5]. - Price differences: The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 1,900 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton to - 2,650 yuan/ton. The difference between the CIF price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide in China, Japan, and South Korea and the SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide price increased by 6 yuan/ton [5]. - Precursor and cathode materials: The prices of most ternary precursors and cathode materials remained unchanged, except for the prices of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) which decreased by 50 yuan/ton and ternary material 811 (power type) which decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The prices of various types of lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium remained unchanged [5]. - Cells and batteries: The price of 523 square ternary cells increased by 0.002 yuan/Wh, the price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries increased by 0.02 yuan/piece, the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells decreased by 0.003 yuan/Wh, and the price of cobalt acid lithium cells increased by 0.05 yuan/Ah. The prices of other cells and batteries remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: There are charts showing the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: There are charts showing the price trends of metallic lithium, average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate, average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide from 2024 to 2025 [9][11]. - Price differences: There are charts showing the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF battery - grade lithium hydroxide in China, Japan, and South Korea and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [16][19]. - Precursor and cathode materials: There are charts showing the price trends of ternary precursors and ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [20][26]. - Lithium battery prices: There are charts showing the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [29][32]. - Inventory: There are charts showing the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from August 15, 2024, to April 3, 2025 [34][36]. - Production cost: There is a chart showing the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, lithium mica concentrate, and spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [38][39]. 3.3 Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has more than ten years of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. He is often interviewed by multiple media. His team has won many awards [42]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He focuses on the domestic non - ferrous industry research, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, and provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for customers [43]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, and provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for customers [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of the lithium carbonate futures 2505 contract dropped 0.17% to 70,720 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 71,550 yuan/ton, while the industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 69,650 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 100 yuan/ton to 68,950 yuan/ton, and the battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) dropped 100 yuan/ton to 74,075 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 250 tons to 29,283 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly production of lithium carbonate increased slightly month - on - month, and the production in April is expected to reach nearly 80,000 tons, with the daily average production increasing by 4% month - on - month. On the demand side, the production of ternary materials increased significantly month - on - month, the production of lithium iron phosphate remained stable month - on - month, and the daily average consumption of lithium carbonate increased by about 5% month - on - month. The inventory turnover days of cathode materials increased slightly for ternary materials and decreased slightly for lithium iron phosphate. The weekly inventory increased by 1,633 tons to 131,000 tons, with a decrease in other inventories and an increase in both upstream and downstream inventories [3]. - The price is expected to fluctuate around 70,000 yuan/ton. In the short term, attention should be paid to the upstream production suspension and reduction, warehouse receipt inventory, and lithium ore price trends. In the medium term, the equilibrium price center will shift downward, the market procurement activity is average, and the downstream finished product inventory pressure is relatively large [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Futures and spot prices: The lithium carbonate futures 2505 contract fell 0.17% to 70,720 yuan/ton. Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price dropped 50 yuan/ton, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) and (micropowder) dropped 100 yuan/ton each [3]. - Supply and demand: Supply - side weekly production increased slightly, with April production expected near 80,000 tons and daily average up 4%. Demand - side ternary material production rose significantly, lithium iron phosphate stable, and daily lithium carbonate consumption up 5%. Inventory turnover days varied for different materials, and weekly inventory increased to 131,000 tons [3]. - Price trend: Price to fluctuate around 70,000 yuan/ton, short - term focus on upstream production, inventory, and ore prices; medium - term price center to shift down [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The main contract closed at 70,720 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the continuous contract closed at 70,600 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan [5]. - Lithium ore: Some lithium ore prices decreased, such as lithium mica (Li2O:2.0% - 2.5%) down 15 yuan/ton and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O:6% - 7%) down 40 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium salts: Battery - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices decreased, while industrial - grade lithium carbonate and some other products remained stable [5]. - Price spreads: Battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and other spreads also showed changes [5]. - Precursor and cathode materials: Most precursor and cathode material prices decreased slightly [5]. - Batteries: Some battery prices changed slightly, such as 523 square ternary cell price up 0.002 yuan/Wh and square lithium iron phosphate cell price down 0.003 yuan/Wh [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium ore such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone from 2024 to 2025 [6][7][8]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [9][10][11]. - Price spreads: Illustrate the price spreads between different lithium products, including battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, and others from 2024 to 2025 [16][17][19]. - Precursor and cathode materials: Present the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [21][22][24]. - Lithium battery prices: Show the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][31][32]. - Inventory: Display the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from August 2024 to April 2025 [35][36][37]. - Production cost: Illustrate the production profit trends of different raw - material - based lithium carbonate production from 2024 to 2025 [39][40][41].

对美国锂电总体需求预期维持： 电动车需求影响有限：增速预期低且电池实现本土制造。 25年预计10-15%增长，180万辆车，对应动力电池装机130GWh+，需求 170GWh+。电池结构，宁德已将至12%，其余基本为北美制造。此次加税后，中国出口美国动力电池面临82.4%关税，叠加本土制造拥有 10%制造补贴+终端汽车7500美金/辆补贴，经济性远高于进口，因此厂商加速北美建厂。 储能有所影响，但IRR仍有经济性，或双发各自承担。 出口美国储能电池关税当前提升至64.9%，2026年为82.4%。若从中国进口储能系 统，则当前关税下irr为8.2%，而去年为16.9%；若从中国进口储能电芯，其他可实现本土生产，则当前irr为12.8%，而去年为17%。25年2 月末美国大储备案量65GW，其中年内计划并网项目19-20GW，同比翻倍增长，需求仍旺盛，预计美国储能总体需求仍可以有40-50%增 长，且北美缺乏铁锂电池产能，依旧依赖中国企业，双方或协商各自承担一定关税。 1.美国锂电需求： 宁德占比已下降至12%： 松下、LG新能源占据美国主要份额，宁德时代市占率12%。从电池供应结构看，松下、LG新能源占据主要 ...

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 4 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2505 合约跌 1.05%至 69900 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价下跌 1000 元/吨至 71400 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂下跌 1000 元/吨至 69450 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗粒）下 跌 100 元/吨至 69150 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（微粉）下跌 100 至 74275 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓 单库存增加 380 吨至 28783 吨。 2. 供应端增速放缓，周度产量环比增加 307 吨至 17625 吨、4 月预计碳酸锂产量预计环比增加 1.1%至 8 万吨。需求维持旺季态势，4 月三元材料产量预计环比增加 7%至 6.2 万吨；4 月磷酸铁锂产量预 计环比增加 0.7%至 26 万吨。终端，据乘联会分会，3 月份全国新能源乘用车零售 99.1 万辆，同比 增长 38%，环比增长 45%。库存方面，周度碳酸锂库存环比增加 1477 吨至 12.9 万吨，其中上下游 增加，其他环节减少。 3. ...