Group 1 - The article emphasizes that the restructuring of the global order is an irreversible underlying logic, driven by unconventional methods to address the current global supply and demand imbalance [3][4][14] - It highlights the increasing imbalance in trade, production, and debt between the G2 countries, with the U.S. as the largest consumer and China as the largest producer [9][13] - The article discusses the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement," which aims to reshape global trade and monetary order to alleviate the U.S.'s long-standing current account and fiscal deficits [11][23] Group 2 - The new investment paradigm is framed by three macro trading backgrounds: U.S. Treasury rates being "higher for longer," Chinese bond rates being "lower for longer," and an increase in global risk premium [5][12][32] - The article suggests that the ongoing trend of de-globalization will significantly disrupt the existing global asset allocation framework [9][13][33] - It notes that the U.S. reliance on debt expansion has led to continuous current account deficits and manufacturing hollowing out, while China benefits from a persistent trade surplus [9][13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a previous rating of "Buy" as well [1] Core Views - The company has shown continuous quarter-on-quarter growth in revenue and net profit for eight consecutive quarters, driven by increasing demand for DDR5 memory interface chips and high-performance interconnect chips [3][5] - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of RMB 54.83 billion, RMB 74.22 billion, and RMB 93.07 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][7] - The demand for DDR5 memory interface chips and high-performance interconnect chips is anticipated to continue growing, supported by trends in the AI industry [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 12.22 billion, a year-on-year increase of 65.78% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.43% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q1 2025 was RMB 5.25 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 135.14% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.13% [8] - The gross margin for interconnect chip products was 64.50%, up 3.57 percentage points year-on-year [8] Revenue Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 5,483 million in 2025, with a growth rate of 50.7% compared to 2024 [7] - The expected net profit for 2025 is RMB 2,211 million, representing a growth rate of 56.6% [7] Market Position - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately RMB 84.84 billion and an average trading volume of RMB 2,605.53 million over the past three months [2] - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 7.66% of shares [2]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced significant adjustments this year, while the stock market has seen an increase led by technology stocks, followed by fluctuations due to "reciprocal tariffs" [1] Group 1: Performance of "Fixed Income +" Products - Over 60% of "Fixed Income +" funds have shown positive year-to-date net asset value growth as of April 18 [2][4] - Nearly 200 funds reached new highs in net asset value in April, indicating strong performance in a volatile market [4] Group 2: Future Outlook for "Fixed Income +" Strategies - Fund managers believe that "Fixed Income +" strategies are likely to continue generating returns, with expectations for further product expansion [3][5] - The current capital market activity is driven by various factors, including economic stabilization, technological innovation, and geopolitical resilience, which support the value discovery of domestic assets [5] Group 3: Asset Allocation Insights - The allocation to equity and convertible bond assets has yielded good returns for funds, with some funds reporting over 6% net asset value growth in the first quarter [8] - Convertible bonds are seen as having strong configuration value due to their performance in the current interest rate environment [8][9] Group 4: Management Strategies for "Fixed Income +" Funds - There is a trend of incorporating active equity fund managers into the management of "Fixed Income +" products to leverage their stock-picking abilities [10][11] - The ability to manage across multiple asset classes and maintain a balance between equity and fixed income stability is crucial for success in this space [11] Group 5: Market Conditions and Sector Focus - The A-share market is expected to focus on domestic factors, with a gradual stabilization and subsequent rise anticipated [12] - In terms of sector allocation, there is an emphasis on consumer services and industrial sectors, while maintaining a focus on credit quality and yield in fixed income investments [12]

戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn 报告摘要 ● 全球大类资产表现与宏观交易主线 ： （4.7-4.16），全球大类资产表现分化，黄金>发达>债券>新兴。（4.2- 4.4），对等关税落地当周，避险&风险资产普跌。（4.7-4.16），对等关税对于全球资产冲击的程度有所缓和， 但全球大类资产主线仍然围绕"避险交易"：避险资产的代表黄金已经率先企稳并大幅领涨；风险资产中，发达国 家和工业金属有所回补，而新兴市场表现仍偏弱。 ● 大类资产配置——新投资范式下，"全球杠铃策略"是反脆弱时代嬗变下全球资产配置的最佳应对。 我们在 25.4.9 《谋定而后动，做多的三个时机》 中提示：事件冲击的大波动中，全力做多的时机通常有三个：（1）胜 率提升—本轮要看到贸易摩擦缓和（跟踪观察）；（2）估值极便宜（中国资产不贵）；（3）流动性问题导致筹 码出清（可以是阶段性）带来机会。短期维持全球资产宜保持避险策略（中债瑞郎黄金）的判断，仍然建议以全 天候策略框架构建资产组合。中长期而言，关税强化了新范式的三大底层逻辑（逆全球化加剧、债务周期错位、 AI产 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][6] Core Views - The company has experienced rapid growth in operating performance, with a significant increase in the penetration rate of DDR5 memory interface chips [1][5] - The company reported a revenue of 3.639 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 59.20%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.412 billion yuan, up 213.10% year-on-year [3][6] - For Q1 2025, the company expects to achieve revenue of approximately 1.222 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 65.78%, and a net profit of 510 to 550 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 128.28% to 146.19% year-on-year [3][6] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 3.639 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.412 billion yuan, marking a significant increase from the previous year [3][7] - The company’s Q4 2024 revenue reached 1.068 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.43% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.90% [3][6] Research and Development - The company invested 763 million yuan in R&D in 2024, accounting for 20.97% of its revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 11.98% [3][6] - The R&D team consists of 536 personnel, with 62.87% holding a master's degree or higher [3][6] Market Trends - The global demand for servers and computers has rebounded, leading to significant growth in the company's performance [5][6] - The company’s DDR5 memory interface chip shipments have surpassed those of DDR4, indicating a strong market position [5][6] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued strong growth in 2025, driven by increased demand for DDR5 memory interface chips and high-performance chips [6][7] - Earnings per share are projected to be 1.72 yuan and 2.33 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 43 and 32 [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the evolving global economic landscape, particularly in light of intensified US-China trade tensions and their impact on market dynamics. It suggests a cautious approach to investment, focusing on undervalued assets and maintaining a diversified portfolio strategy to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong stock market has shown signs of short-term exhaustion after six consecutive weeks of gains, indicating a need for caution and a focus on low volatility, dividend, value, and quality factors [2]. - The recent surge in the Hang Seng Index basis, which exceeded 200 points, is a rare occurrence, having only happened 13 times since 2013. Historical data suggests that the performance of the Hong Kong market is closely tied to corporate earnings, with PPI (Producer Price Index) being a key indicator to track [2][8]. - The article notes that the Chinese government has taken significant measures to support the capital market amid escalating trade tensions, which positively influenced market performance [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The article outlines a three-pronged approach for identifying optimal investment opportunities during periods of market volatility: (1) observing signs of easing trade tensions, (2) identifying undervalued assets, and (3) recognizing liquidity issues that may lead to temporary market dislocations [3]. - A long-term strategy is recommended, focusing on a "global barbell strategy" that balances risk and return across various asset classes, particularly in the context of rising tariffs and the implications of a shifting global order [4]. - The article suggests maintaining a defensive asset allocation strategy, emphasizing the importance of tracking US dollar liquidity as a leading indicator for market movements [3]. Group 3: Asset Allocation - The article provides a detailed asset allocation model under the "All Weather Strategy," which includes varying proportions for different risk preferences, highlighting the importance of adjusting allocations based on market conditions [6]. - The model suggests a significant allocation to Chinese government bonds and convertible bonds, reflecting a preference for lower-risk assets in uncertain market conditions [6]. - The allocation percentages for various assets are tailored to different risk appetites, with specific adjustments made for volatility and correlation among asset classes [6].

戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn 报告摘要 ● 引言：我们在 25.2.28《牛市二阶段，事缓则圆》 提示，港股周线6连阳后，短期行情有所透支，事缓则圆。从历史经验看6连阳后不建议追涨，反而应关注落后的低 波、股息、价值、质量因子。 我们在 25.4.8《"事缓则圆"后，当前如何应对》 提示中期投资者需要深刻解读世界秩序重塑的方向和权衡各类资产的性价比。 ● 中美贸易摩擦加剧中，中国政府采取了有力的维护资本市场的举措，对周二的市场产生了较好的提振作用。 而从美国与各国磋商贸易条件进展看，不排除特朗普延期 关税的可能。 ● 中国资产的风险偏好冲击在本周一达到了较为极端的水平。 恒指基差突破200点是历史罕见现象，2013年至今只出现过13次，本轮对等关税冲击下，恒指基差突破近 210点。复盘历史13次的经验，极端贴水（现货价格远高于期货）后港股市场的表现由企业盈利决定（PPI同比是较好的跟踪指标）：PPI回升—>港股反弹；PPI回落—> 港股回落。PPI与中美贸易条件的演变息息相关，需要继续跟踪关税问题的进展。 ● 全球资本市场目前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on global assets and the shift from a "great moderation" to a "great volatility" in the global economy, emphasizing the need for investors to adapt their strategies accordingly [3][4]. Short-term Outlook - Investors are advised to focus on safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasuries, Chinese bonds, Swiss francs, gold, and dividend stocks before the implementation of tariffs on April 9 [4]. - Current market indicators suggest a decline in risk appetite, and liquidity metrics should be closely monitored for potential trading opportunities [4]. - Specific asset class assessments indicate that global equities and commodities remain under pressure, while U.S. equities are weak and U.S. Treasuries are strong, reflecting a preference for safety over inflation concerns [4]. Medium to Long-term Outlook - The tariffs reinforce three underlying logics of a new investment paradigm: the intensification of de-globalization, misalignment of debt cycles, and trends in the AI industry [5]. - The article suggests maintaining a balanced allocation of safe-haven assets to manage risk and return effectively, as the global economic landscape continues to evolve [5]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The "All Weather Strategy" outlines different asset allocation percentages based on risk preferences, with a notable emphasis on Chinese government bonds and gold across varying risk profiles [7]. - For low-risk preference, the allocation includes 34.18% in Chinese government bonds and 8.51% in COMEX gold, while for high-risk preference, it suggests 14.16% in Chinese government bonds and 11.75% in gold [7].

戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn 报告摘要 ● 引言： 我们在25.2.28 《牛市二阶段，事缓则圆》 提示，港股周线6连阳后，短期行情有所透支，事缓则圆。 从历史经验看6连阳后不建议追涨，反而应关注落后的低波、股息、价值、质量因子。 ● 部分投资者仍然对"新投资范式"认识不足，对特朗普关税的底层逻辑存在误解。 疫情以来，全球从"大缓和"走 向"大波动"，G2在生产贸易（中国生产国VS美国消费国）、债务（中国私人高VS美国政府高）失衡突出，特朗 普政府企图通过非常规手段化解全球供给与需求失衡，世界秩序重塑不可逆。 ● 特朗普关税对全球资产的影响？ 关税一阶段定价征税国家的"通胀效应"+被征税国家的"需求收缩效应"、二阶 段定价被征税国家的应对措施（货币财政）。 ● 短期而言：在4.9（对等关税生效日期）前，以避险资产（美债&中债、瑞郎、黄金、红利等）为宜。 当前关键 问题除了关注各国之间的贸易谈判，在金融市场上还要关注基本面的问题是否会转换成流动性的问题。当前， （VIX、AAII熊牛价差、BNP全球风险溢价等指标显示）风险偏好下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the growth market, particularly focusing on the AI sector, and analyzes the factors influencing growth trends and investment strategies [2][4][57]. Group 1: Definition of Growth Industry - Growth industries are characterized by high growth potential and often exhibit high valuations in the A-share market, but their definitions evolve over time [2][11]. - The article categorizes growth styles into three main types: technology growth, manufacturing growth, and consumer growth, each with distinct performance characteristics [2][12]. Group 2: Factors Determining Growth Market - The decisive factor for growth markets is the industry trend and profit realization; a high prosperity industry is essential for a thriving growth market [3][22]. - The macro environment is not a decisive factor but can enhance the relative advantages of growth styles under favorable conditions [3][18]. - Important industry and regulatory policies serve as sufficient but non-essential conditions for the formation of growth markets [3][31]. - External factors, while less important than internal fundamentals, can influence domestic growth styles, particularly through global capital flows [3][4][57]. - Valuation does not determine the height of growth markets but can increase volatility once valuations reach relatively high levels [3][35]. - Sentiment indicators can provide short-term timing effects but have limited significance in the medium term [3][48]. - The market's leading capital influences growth styles significantly, with different investor preferences affecting market dynamics [3][40][41]. Group 3: Current AI Growth Market Analysis - The AI growth market is still in its early stages, with potential for performance realization in computing power and cloud services [4][57]. - The macro environment and supportive policies favor the AI growth market, while external uncertainties may impact global growth styles [4][57]. - Recent corrections in AI stocks have made valuations more attractive, providing potential investment opportunities [4][57]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Strategies in AI - Index investment is recommended due to the uncertainty in technology innovation, allowing for natural selection among companies [5][71]. - Investment in the technology supply chain should follow a sequence, starting with "selling shovels" (infrastructure) before moving to application stages [6][71]. - The rise in global competitiveness of industries has significant market implications, as seen in the historical context of China's rise in the electric vehicle sector [6][7]. - Understanding the "overcapacity" issue is crucial, as not all supply-demand imbalances indicate inefficiency [7]. Group 5: Historical Context and Lessons - Historical trends from the smartphone and electric vehicle industries provide insights into the current AI market, emphasizing the importance of industry trends and profit cycles [58][59]. - The evolution of the smartphone market illustrates how component manufacturers can gain competitive advantages, which is relevant for AI infrastructure [59][60]. - The rise of China's electric vehicle industry showcases the benefits of a complete supply chain and market advantages, which can be mirrored in the AI sector [66][67].