投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 避险降温，贵金属调整 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 国贸期货 宏观金融研究中心 2025-10-27 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 周度观点摘要 | 黄金相关数据指标跟踪 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 单位 | 本期 | 上一期 | 周度变化 | 周度涨跌幅 | | 伦敦现货黄金 | 美元/盎司 | 4111.555 | 4251.448 | -139.893 | -3.29% | | 沪金主力 | 元/克 | 938.10 | 999.80 | -61.7 | -6.17% | | 基差（TD-期货，取15点整价格） | 元/克 | -1.97 | -2.8 | 0.83 | -29.64% | | 内外价差（TD-伦敦，取15点整价格） | 元/克 | -1.15 | -2.48 | 1.33 | -53.63% | | 黄金SPDR ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook despite challenges in the gold market in 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The gold market is expected to present both opportunities and challenges for banks, with a trend towards deepening precious metal business driven by central bank purchases [1][2]. - The demand for gold bars and coins has increased significantly, reflecting a growing need for gold as a hedge and store of value among residents [4]. - The establishment of a market-making system for gold trading is anticipated to enhance market liquidity and stability, positioning listed banks as key players [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy and Market Environment - As of September 2025, China's official gold reserves reached 74.06 million ounces, marking an increase for 11 consecutive months [2]. - In Q2 2025, global central banks added 166 tons of gold to their reserves, with 95% of surveyed central banks expecting further increases in the next 12 months [2]. - New policies allowing insurance funds to invest in gold are expected to create new opportunities for banks to provide services to insurance institutions, enhancing their intermediary income [2]. 2. Business Dynamics and Revenue Contribution - In the first half of 2025, China's gold consumption was 505.205 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.54%, with significant growth in gold bar and coin consumption by 23.69% [4]. - The decline in gold jewelry consumption is prompting banks to shift focus from traditional jewelry sales to investment-oriented precious metal businesses [4]. - The growth in investment demand for gold bars and coins is expected to stabilize income from investment-related businesses, enhancing the profitability of the precious metals segment for banks [4]. 3. Industry Trends - The report highlights a structural shift in gold consumption, with investment demand rising while jewelry demand declines, indicating a need for banks to adapt their business strategies [4]. - The performance of the banking sector is expected to benefit from expansionary policies aimed at stabilizing the economy, with specific banks like Ningbo Bank and Jiangsu Bank recommended for investment due to positive fundamental changes [8]. 4. Key Data Tracking - The report includes various financial metrics, such as average daily trading volume and margin financing balances, which are essential for assessing market conditions [9][10].

Core Insights - The "2025 Xiangmi Lake Wealth Management Week" successfully concluded, focusing on investment opportunities in precious metals amid current global economic fluctuations [1][3] - The forum emphasized the importance of understanding market cycles and future positioning, with insights from industry experts on the trends affecting gold and silver prices [3][5] Group 1: Market Trends and Analysis - The chief economist from Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund highlighted the slowing economic growth in Europe and the US, the potential for a renewed interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve, and the resulting upward pressure on gold prices due to a declining dollar index and an appreciating RMB [3][5] - The precious metals market is undergoing structural changes, with platinum benefiting from the rise of hydrogen energy, while traditional metals like palladium face challenges from new energy alternatives [5] - The chief analyst from Ping An Futures noted that recent price adjustments in gold and silver are primarily due to short-term market sentiment, but the long-term value drivers remain intact, particularly with the Fed's shift towards a looser monetary policy [5][6] Group 2: Investment Strategies and Tools - Ping An Futures aims to provide comprehensive market analysis and investment strategies, offering diverse risk management and asset allocation tools, including futures and options, to help clients navigate complex market conditions [6] - The company emphasizes a customer-centric approach, responding to the evolving wealth management needs of residents by creating a digital financial service platform that supports research, trading, and risk management [6] - The forum coincided with a significant increase in asset management scale in Shenzhen, which has surpassed 31 trillion yuan, positioning the city as a competitive financial center alongside Hong Kong and Singapore [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★ [1] - Silver: ★★★ [1] Report's Core View - Today, gold and silver fluctuated with repeated ups and downs. Due to new sanctions on Russia by the US and Europe, upcoming new - round trade negotiations between China and the US, and the US sending bombers over the vicinity of Venezuela, global situation uncertainty is high, and risk sentiment is prone to fluctuate. In the short - term, precious metals may enter a phase of high - level oscillation, and it is recommended to wait and watch for investment opportunities. Attention should be paid to the release of US September CPI data tonight [1] Summary by Related Content Global Situation - The US and Europe announced new sanctions on Russia. It is reported that India's imports of Russian oil will drop to nearly zero, and Kuwait said OPEC is ready to increase production to meet rising demand [1] - Trump said "the ground will be the next target" in his anti - drug operation against Venezuela, which may be a major escalation of US - Venezuela tensions. Maduro ordered the indefinite deployment of troops in five states in September [2] Russia - Ukraine Situation - Zelensky said there are domestic missiles with a range of 300 kilometers and land exchange with Russia is unacceptable [1] - Putin believes the US intention seems more like delaying the summit rather than canceling it, and new sanctions will not have a major impact on the Russian economy [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Although in the medium to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the precious metals price, in the short - term, the market has entered an adjustment phase. Investors should look for mid - term opportunities to buy on dips and hold existing long positions cautiously. The resistance for London gold is 4150, and the support is 4000; for silver, the resistance is 50 - 50.5, and the support is 47.5 [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, precious metals prices continued to fluctuate and adjust. The US dollar index fluctuated, the 10Y US Treasury yield rebounded, European and American stock indices rose slightly, Bitcoin rebounded, and crude oil had a large increase. The COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4143.2 per ounce, up 1.91%; the US silver 2512 contract closed at $48.65 per ounce, up 2.03%. The SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 942.28 yuan per gram, down 0.77%; the SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11467 yuan per kilogram, up 1.24% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations continued to cool slightly. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 1.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 98.3%. For December, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 6.5%, a 50 - basis - point cut is 93.4%, and a 75 - basis - point cut is 0.2%. For January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 3.2%, a 50 - basis - point cut is 48.2%, and a 75 - basis - point cut is 48.6%. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 1052.37 tons, while the iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 128.41 tons to 15469.2 tons. The SHFE silver inventory decreased by 28.3 tons to 663.4 tons, and the SGX silver inventory decreased by 57.4 tons to 1050.7 tons as of the week ending October 17 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - In terms of data, pay attention to the US September CPI data, which was postponed due to the US government shutdown and is scheduled to be released tonight. In terms of events, this week is the quiet period before the Fed's October 31 FOMC meeting [4]. 3.4 Price and Inventory Data - **Price Data**: The SHFE gold main - continuous contract was at 942.28 yuan per gram, down 1.08%; SGX gold TD was at 940.14 yuan per gram, down 0.92%; CME gold main contract was at $4143.2 per ounce, up 0.65%. The SHFE silver main - continuous contract was at 11467 yuan per kilogram, up 0.55%; SGX silver TD was at 11463 yuan per kilogram, up 0.72%; CME silver main contract was at $48.65 per ounce, up 0.98%. The SHFE - TD gold spread was 2.14 yuan per gram, down 42.47%; the SHFE - TD silver spread was 4 yuan per kilogram, down 50% [5]. - **Inventory and Position Data**: SHFE gold inventory was 87015 kilograms, unchanged; CME gold inventory was 1211.7586 tons, down 0.02%; SHFE gold positions were 189131 lots, down 1.9%. SHFE silver inventory was 663.366 tons, down 4.09%; CME silver inventory was 15488.954 tons, down 0.61%; SGX silver inventory was 1050.675 tons, down 5.18%. SHFE silver positions were 377229 lots, down 2.33%; SLV silver positions were 15469.202584 tons, down 0.82% [8]. 3.5 Other Market Data - The US dollar index was at 98.9332, up 0.05%; the US dollar against the RMB was at 7.125, down 0.03%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 46734.61 points, up 0.31%. WTI crude oil spot was at $61.79 per barrel, up 5.62%. LmeS copper 03 was at $10817 per ton, up 1.49%. The 10Y US Treasury yield was at 4.01%, up 1.01%; the 10Y US real interest rate was at 1.71%, up 1.79%; the 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread was at 0.53%, up 1.92% [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, after a significant adjustment, precious metal prices are recovering. Due to the cancellation of the US - Russia summit increasing geopolitical uncertainties and the upcoming Fed rate cut in October. However, considering the upcoming China - US trade consultations and the decline in the London silver lease rate, and the end of the historic rally since late August, gold and silver are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. But the long - term bullish logic for precious metals remains unchanged, and a long - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended. Today, attention should be paid to the US CPI data [6]. - In the long - term, the Fed still has room for rate cuts this year, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the unsustainable US debt and intensified great - power competition will increase the credit risk of the US dollar in the long run, and global central bank gold purchases continue. So, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - **15 - point price on October 23, 2025**: London gold spot was at $4113.55 per ounce, London silver spot at $49.12 per ounce, COMEX gold at $4127.90 per ounce, COMEX silver at $48.54 per ounce, AU2512 at 942.28 yuan per gram, AG2512 at 11467 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) at 940.79 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) at 11447 yuan per kilogram. Compared with October 22, 2025, the price changes were - 1.0%, - 0.1%, - 0.9%, 0.1%, - 1.1%, 0.6%, - 1.0%, and 0.5% respectively [5]. - **Spread/ratio on October 23, 2025**: Gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 1.49 yuan per gram, silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 20 yuan per kilogram, gold internal - external spread (TD - London) was 2.87 yuan per gram, silver internal - external spread (TD - London) was - 1068 yuan per kilogram, SHFE gold - silver ratio was 82.17, COMEX gold - silver ratio was 85.05, AU2602 - 2512 was 2.74 yuan per gram, and AG2602 - 2512 was 14 yuan per kilogram. Compared with October 22, 2025, the changes were - 35.5%, 53.8%, 5.9%, - 5.7%, - 1.6%, - 1.1%, 7.0%, and 7.7% respectively [5]. 3.2 Position Data - **As of October 22, 2025**: Gold ETF - SPDR was 1052.37 tons, silver ETF - SLV was 15597.6132 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 332808 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 66059 contracts, non - commercial net long positions were 266749 contracts, COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 72318 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 20042 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 52276 contracts. Compared with October 21, 2025, the changes were - 0.59%, - 0.50%, 1.85%, 9.43%, 0.13%, 0.97%, - 0.21%, and 1.43% respectively [5]. 3.3 Inventory Data - **On October 23, 2025**: SHFE gold inventory was 87015 kilograms (unchanged from October 22, 2025), SHFE silver inventory was 663366 kilograms (down 4.09% from October 22, 2025). COMEX gold inventory on October 22, 2025, was 38968027 troy ounces (down 0.14% from October 21, 2025), and COMEX silver inventory on October 22, 2025, was 501026992 troy ounces (down 0.56% from October 21, 2025) [5]. 3.4 Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market Data - **On October 23, 2025**: The US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.09 (down 0.05% from October 22, 2025), the US dollar index on October 22, 2025, was 98.91 (down 0.06% from October 21, 2025), the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.45% (unchanged), the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 3.97% (down 0.25% from October 21, 2025), VIX was 18.60 (up 4.09% from October 21, 2025), the S&P 500 was 6699.40 (down 0.53% from October 21, 2025), and NYMEX crude oil was $59.38 per barrel (up 3.13% from October 21, 2025) [5]. 3.5 Market Review - On October 23, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.77% at 942.28 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 1.24% at 11467 yuan per kilogram [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Go long on the gold-silver ratio on dips [9] - Options: Hold off [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The medium- to long-term logic for being bullish on precious metals remains unchanged, although the current market risk aversion sentiment is weakening, which may slightly reduce the demand for gold investment. It is expected that the gold price will mainly show a volatile and slightly stronger pattern in the near term, and the silver price is also expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical aspect: Russian President Putin stated that the US President's decision was more of a postponement rather than a cancellation of the meeting. Russia always advocates dialogue [1]. - Tariff aspect: South Korea and the US are discussing a plan for South Korea to invest $200 billion in the US in phases over the next eight years to reach a tariff negotiation agreement. In the overall $350 billion plan, South Korea will provide $150 billion through credit guarantees and directly invest the remaining $200 billion [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On October 23, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 927.66 yuan/gram and closed at 942.28 yuan/gram, a change of -1.08% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 948.64 yuan/gram, up 0.67% from the afternoon close [2]. - On the same day, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 11,255.00 yuan/kg and closed at 11,467.00 yuan/kg, a change of 0.55% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 977,615 lots, and the open interest was 377,229 lots. The night session closed at 11,517 yuan/kg, up 0.44% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On October 23, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.00%, down 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The 10-year and 2-year spread was 0.51%, down 0.19 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Position and Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2508 contract, the long position changed by -313 lots, and the short position changed by -119 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract was 755,210 lots, a change of -26.20% from the previous trading day [4]. - On the Ag2508 contract, the long position changed by 2 lots, and the short position changed by -2 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 1,562,642 lots, a change of -40.62% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,052.37 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,469 tons, a decrease of 129 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On October 23, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 9.64 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -943.76 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 82.17, a change of -1.62% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 85.46, a change of -0.15% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On October 23, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 63,090 kg, a change of -36.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 985,702 kg, a change of -58.01% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 6,592 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 2,700 kg [7]. Strategies - Gold: It is expected that the Au2512 contract will oscillate in the range of 930 yuan/gram - 960 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: It is expected that the Ag2512 contract will oscillate in the range of 11,000 yuan/kg - 11,800 yuan/kg [8]. - Arbitrage: Go long on the gold-silver ratio on dips [9] - Options: Hold off [9]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in precious metal prices have led several banks to raise investment thresholds for gold accumulation products, indicating a growing interest in gold investments among customers [1][2]. Group 1: Bank Adjustments - Several banks, including Industrial Bank and Ping An Bank, have announced increases in the minimum investment amounts for gold accumulation products, with Industrial Bank raising the threshold from 1000 RMB to 1200 RMB for monetary transactions [1]. - Ping An Bank plans to increase the minimum investment for its gold accumulation plan from 900 RMB to 1100 RMB starting October 24, 2025 [1]. - The adjustments are primarily due to the rapid increase in gold prices, reflecting banks' responses to market changes and serving as risk warnings to investors [1][2]. Group 2: Risk Warnings - A number of banks, including China Construction Bank and China Merchants Bank, have issued multiple risk warnings regarding gold price fluctuations since early October [2]. - Bank staff have been actively communicating risks to clients, emphasizing the importance of understanding the volatility in gold prices and the non-returnable nature of gold products once sold [2]. - Some banks have ceased to offer personal precious metal business services, with Postal Savings Bank announcing the termination of related services by October 31 [2]. Group 3: Market Analysis - On October 21, significant adjustments occurred in the international precious metal market, with notable declines in gold and silver prices attributed to profit-taking, changes in macroeconomic policy expectations, and a shift of some investors towards the stock market [3]. - Despite the volatility, gold retains its status as a safe-haven asset, with international gold prices expected to have some support, although high volatility is anticipated in the near future [3]. - Investors are advised to monitor market changes closely and to allocate gold and related products in their asset portfolios based on their risk preferences and investment needs [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold investment rating: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver investment rating: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Overnight, precious metals first declined and then rebounded, halting the downward trend. Events such as China - US trade, the Russia - Ukraine war, and the US government shutdown are at critical stages of the game, with uncertain prospects and volatile risk sentiment. In the short term, precious metals have large intraday fluctuations, the severe over - buying is being corrected, and after the correction, they may enter a stage of high - level consolidation. It is recommended to wait and see for a buying opportunity after stabilization [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Topics Russia - Ukraine Situation - The EU approved the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, including a ban on liquefied natural gas imports [1] - US media reported that the US allowed Ukraine to use long - range missiles against Russia, but Trump called it fake news [1] - Bettsent said there would be a "substantial increase" in sanctions against Russia, and then the US Treasury Department announced sanctions on two major Russian oil companies [1] - Trump cancelled the meeting with Putin in Budapest, stating that the meeting would make no progress [1] US Government Shutdown - On October 22, local time, the US Senate voted 54 to 46 to reject the Republican - proposed temporary appropriation bill again, and the government "shutdown" deadlock continues. This is the 12th time the Senate has voted down the bill since the government shutdown [2] Tariffs - India and the US are about to reach a trade agreement, reducing tariffs on India to 15% - 16% [2] - The Trump administration is preparing a drug investigation to pave the way for new tariffs [2]

Core Insights - Recent surge in precious metals: Spot gold has surpassed $4,152 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 32%; silver has risen from $29 at the beginning of the year to $53, marking a year-to-date increase of over 78%, reaching a historical high [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current rally in gold and silver is driven by three core factors: the opportunity cost of holding cash, the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and the weakening of the US dollar [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in September 2025, with a 99% probability of a rate cut in October, leading to reduced implicit losses from holding gold and silver [1] - The US dollar has weakened by 2.3% since October, contributing to the rise in gold and silver prices when priced in dollars [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Global risk events in 2025, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, are increasing volatility in risk assets, making gold and silver attractive as safe-haven assets [3] - The largest silver ETF has seen a significant increase in holdings, with nearly 20 tons added in a single day on October 14, indicating accelerated institutional investment [3] - Silver is a critical raw material for industries such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and semiconductors, with a projected global solar installation exceeding 655 GW in 2025, consuming over 5,000 tons of silver [3] - The silver market has experienced a supply-demand imbalance for five consecutive years, with a projected shortfall of 4,000 tons in 2025, further driving price increases [3] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Institutions have mixed views on the market: Citigroup predicts silver could reach $55 in three months, while Goldman Sachs warns of short-term overbought conditions [3] - Investors are advised to allocate 5%-10% of their funds to physical gold and silver or precious metal ETFs as a long-term hedge [3] - For short-term speculation, investors should be cautious of high volatility in silver and consider a staggered buying strategy [4] Group 4: Policy and Risk Signals - Monitoring the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut timeline is crucial as it impacts gold and silver prices [6] - Tracking geopolitical situations and global economic data is essential; a reduction in risks may lead to decreased holdings [6] - Investors are advised to avoid leveraged trading in precious metal futures and options, prioritizing non-leveraged products [6] - Caution is advised regarding commemorative gold and silver items, which tend to have high premiums and low liquidity, making them less effective as a store of value [6]