Core Viewpoint - The U.S.-EU trade negotiations are at a stalemate, with the U.S. imposing a hard deadline of August 1 for new tariffs unless a trade agreement is reached [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Position - U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross emphasized that new tariffs on the EU will begin on August 1, marking a firm deadline for negotiations [1][2]. - The U.S. is pushing for a higher baseline tariff of 15% or more, which exceeds the previously accepted 10% by the EU [3][4]. - The U.S. administration has repeatedly delayed the tariff deadline, but the latest statement indicates no further extensions will be granted [2]. Group 2: EU Response - The EU is preparing for a robust countermeasure, including potential tariffs on over $100 billion worth of U.S. exports and the use of unprecedented "Anti-Coercion Instrument" (ACI) to respond to U.S. economic pressure [5]. - Germany, traditionally inclined towards a quick agreement with the U.S., has shifted its stance to support a stronger response alongside France and other member states [4][5]. - The EU had previously been close to an agreement that included a 10% baseline tariff and increased purchases of U.S. energy products and semiconductors, but negotiations have stalled due to U.S. demands for higher tariffs [3][4].

Group 1 - The current US-China confrontation is likened to an unexpected encounter battle, where both sides are unprepared and the initial situation is chaotic [1] - The US, despite its intentions to contain China, is not fully prepared for the confrontation due to internal issues such as hollowed-out industries and high debt [2][4] - China has been focused on peaceful development and gradually improving its industrial chain, benefiting from its relationship with the US in the past [2][4] Group 2 - The trade war initiated by the US is just the beginning, as the global market remains resilient and dependent on Chinese goods [6] - The US's attempts to decouple from China have proven ineffective, with ongoing trade between the two nations [6] - The technology war, particularly against companies like Huawei, has inadvertently spurred China's technological independence and innovation [6][7] Group 3 - The US's financial dominance is being challenged as its frequent use of sanctions and asset seizures raises global concerns about the safety of holding wealth in US dollars [9] - The rise of alternative payment systems, such as the digital yuan and cross-border payment systems, indicates a shift towards de-dollarization [9][10] - The ongoing battles in trade, technology, and finance represent a broader restructuring of global economic rules rather than isolated conflicts [10] Group 4 - The current standoff indicates that the US's strategies have not succeeded in undermining China, which has developed strong domestic markets and financial defenses [11] - The confrontation has evolved into a protracted struggle, emphasizing the importance of internal capabilities for both nations [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complex interplay between the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, rising inflation, and geopolitical tensions, highlighting the challenges faced by the U.S. economy and the potential implications for global markets. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Dallas Fed President Logan's hawkish comments indicate that interest rates must remain restrictive for at least 6 to 12 months, dampening market hopes for rate cuts [3] - The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year, marking a four-month high, with core CPI increasing by 2.9%, exceeding the Fed's 2% target [3] - The internal divisions within the Fed are evident, with some officials advocating for immediate rate cuts while others express concerns about inflation driven by tariffs [7] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The "super core inflation" excluding food, energy, and housing rose by 0.12%, significantly higher than the previous months, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [7] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed no month-on-month growth, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024, suggesting a complex inflation landscape [9] - The U.S. Treasury's net issuance of bonds reached $1.2 trillion in Q2, a record for non-crisis periods, indicating significant supply pressure in the bond market [9] Group 3: Geopolitical Tensions and Trade Policies - The U.S. government announced a 19% tariff on Indonesian products, escalating trade tensions, while Mexico's president criticized U.S. policies regarding fentanyl [4] - The EU is preparing to impose additional tariffs on $84 billion worth of U.S. imports if trade negotiations fail, reflecting rising global trade tensions [9] - Trump's administration's actions, including potential tariffs on Russia, further complicate the global trade landscape [9] Group 4: Market Reactions and Investor Sentiment - Following the announcement of the PPI, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell, and the dollar index dropped, indicating cautious investor sentiment regarding inflation [9] - Gold prices experienced volatility, reflecting market uncertainty and potential reactions to changes in Fed leadership [10] - The market's response to Trump's potential dismissal of Powell was marked by significant fluctuations, highlighting the sensitivity of financial markets to political developments [8][10]

– 欧盟各国代表最快本周开会，制定在贸易谈判失败的情况下对美反制方案。美国据悉要求对几乎所有欧盟商品征收10%以上的统一关税，仅对航空等少数 产品给予豁免。 国际新闻 – 特朗普政府据悉将在未来两周推进特定行业关税计划，准备依次宣布对铜、木材、芯片、关键矿产和药品的关税安排。 | 12 7 0 | 4 1.28096 | 0.28078 4 | 0 11 6 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0 | . | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | HOSE | Profit | Commissions Page | BARROO DESECRETE | SHAR | Tomore There | 80 | -56.70 | | | | | | | | | | | DOW | -567.0 | -0.51 | 0.00 | 274,06 | 0 | 309. ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news highlights the decline of the USD/JPY exchange rate, currently trading around 148, influenced by rising inflation in Japan and potential changes in monetary policy by the Bank of Japan [1] - Tokyo's core CPI rose by 3.6% year-on-year, marking a two-year high, which strengthens market expectations for a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [1] - The U.S. decision to impose a 25% tariff on Japanese goods, particularly automobiles, casts a shadow over Japan's economic outlook, potentially limiting export growth and overall economic performance [1] Group 2 - The USD/JPY has key support levels between 148.00 and 148.70, with a potential drop below 148.70 leading to a retest of earlier upward trends or the 147.54 level [2] - Resistance levels are identified at the 200-day moving average (149.63) and the psychological level of 150.00, with a further target at the March high of 151.30 if momentum continues [2] - Current indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD show bullish signals, suggesting a short-term upward momentum, with a recommendation for buying on dips while being cautious of potential overbought conditions near 151.30 [2]

Report Summary Investment Rating - The investment rating for the LLDPE industry is "interval shock" [1] Core View - In the context of anti - inflation in the US and anti - deflation in China, plastics are in an interval shock market. The fundamentals of polyethylene have not improved significantly, with increasing supply pressure and weak demand, so the later trend pressure is still large [2] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures: The closing price of L2509 yesterday was 7216, with a daily increase of 0.10%. The trading volume was 262,918, and the open interest decreased by 8562 [1] - Basis and Spread: The basis of the 09 contract was - 136 yesterday, and the 09 - 01 contract spread was - 27 [1] - Spot Prices: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 7080 yuan/ton, 7150 yuan/ton, and 7250 yuan/ton respectively yesterday [1] 2. Spot News - The market price of LLDPE fluctuated slightly, with a range of 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The linear futures opened higher and fluctuated, then declined in the afternoon. The market atmosphere was average, and downstream demand was limited [1] 3. Market Condition Analysis - Macro: Domestically, the overall commodity sentiment is strong due to anti - involution, while externally, there is a risk of an unexpected trade war in August. Plastics are in an interval shock market [2] - Supply: In July, the maintenance volume will be less than that in June. The new production capacity of domestic PE devices in the third quarter is expected to be 1.6 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers is 78.68%, an increase of 0.89 percentage points [2] - Demand: The downstream of polyethylene is in the off - season. Terminal orders are weak, and enterprises are cautious in stocking. The overall start - up rate of the shed film industry is low, and the procurement enthusiasm of agricultural film dealers is not high [3] 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]

从基本面看，7 月烧碱检修产能较 6 月减少明显，7 月检修主要集中在西北、华东。同时，烧碱 7-8 月 份新增产能或达到 110 万吨，因此供应压力会逐步增加，不过厂家在出口方面存在超卖情况，新增产能压力 基本被出口消化。需求端，非铝需求淡季，支撑偏弱，氧化铝的烧碱库存中性，出口方向支撑强，低价补库 意愿较强。 2025 年 7 月 21 日 烧碱：旺季仍有期待 | chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | 陈嘉昕 | | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 烧碱基本面数据 | | | 山东最便宜可交割 09合约期货价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 现货32碱价格 | | | 2469 840 2625 156 | | | 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 | | | 【现货消息】 | | | 以山东地区为基准，今日山东液碱市场局部持稳观望，高度碱有前期订单支撑下，库存低位，但涨价后 高价走货不佳。低度碱高价走货放缓，各厂走货表现不一，整体库存出现累库，个别高价出现回落。 | | | 【市场状况分析】 | | | 宏观方面，短期国内受反内卷影响， ...

2025年07月21日 星期一 商品期货早班车 单击此处输入文字。 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：上周贵金属价格继续高位震荡，白银录得新高。 | | 金 | 基本面：贝森特访日后释放乐观信号，会见石破茂后表示美日可以达成不错的贸易协议；继特朗普宣布 8 月 1 | | 属 | 日将生效的铜关税后，特朗普团队讨论对木材、芯片、关键矿产和药品发布征关税的公告。这些产品都是美 | | | 国商务部在进行的 232 调查对象；据报道特朗普推动对所有欧盟商品加征 15%-20%的最低关税。国内黄金 | | | ETF 前一交易日流入，COMEX 黄金库存 1154 吨，增加 11 吨；上期所黄金库存 28 吨，继续增加；伦敦 6 | | | 月黄金库存 8774 吨；上期所白银库存 1211 吨，减少 6 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存 1326 吨，增加 7 吨， | | | COMEX 白银库存 15448 吨，减少 16 吨；伦敦 6 月白银库存增加 421 吨至 23788 吨；印度 6 月白银进口约 | | | 200 吨左右。全球最大白银 etf-- ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC trend strength is 1, indicating a "neutral" outlook [5] 2) Core Viewpoints - Short - term, domestic macro is affected by anti - involution, with overall commodity sentiment being strong, but PVC is in a range - bound market temporarily due to high - yield, high - inventory structure and external risks [1][2] - In the future, the market will continue to short the chlor - alkali profit as the high - yield and high - inventory situation of PVC is difficult to ease [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Content Fundamental Tracking - 09 contract futures price is 4937, East China spot price is 4840, basis is - 97, and 9 - 1 month spread is - 119 [1] Spot News - The domestic PVC spot market is in a weak and volatile state. Supply has steadily increased this week, it's the off - season for demand, and industry inventory has continued to grow. The spot price is under pressure, with the transaction price in East China for calcium carbide type five at 4800 - 4920 yuan/ton and ethylene type at 4850 - 5100 yuan/ton [1] Market Condition Analysis - Macro: The anti - involution sentiment is strong, especially in the petrochemical and chemical industries. But the impact on PVC may be limited as most PVC devices have continuous maintenance and upgrades [1][2] - Fundamentals: Northwest chlor - alkali integrated devices still have profits. In the second half of the year, there is insufficient drive for supply - side production cuts, and the high - yield and high - inventory structure is difficult to ease [1][2] - High - yield Structure: PVC maintenance volume is lower than in 2023, and the high - yield pattern continues. Chlor - alkali cost has declined, and the caustic soda demand in 2025 supports high profits. There will be about 110 million tons of new capacity put into production from July to August [1][2] - High - inventory Pressure: In 2025, the PVC export market faces greater competition. Exports are affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification, and the sustainability of exports is uncertain. Domestic demand for PVC downstream products related to real estate is weak, and enterprises have low inventory - building willingness [2][4]

Group 1 - The EU has drafted two rounds of retaliatory tariffs and is evaluating a series of measures, including the activation of the "anti-coercion tool" [1] - The US has threatened to impose "reciprocal tariffs" on trade partners, with a deadline approaching on August 1, leading to a stalemate in US-EU negotiations [1][3] - The US is currently imposing a 25% tariff on imported cars from the EU and a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum [1] Group 2 - German Chancellor Merz expressed concerns about the trade negotiations, indicating that the US is hesitant to lower industry tariffs [3] - The German Finance Minister emphasized the need to resolve global trade conflicts but insisted that agreements should not be made at any cost [3] - The German central bank president warned that tariff uncertainties are causing significant damage to the global economy [3] Group 3 - The EU is prepared to implement retaliatory measures if the US maintains its proposed tariff rates of 15%-20% [4] - The EU plans to impose tariffs on $21 billion worth of US imports starting August 6, with a second round targeting $72 billion in US goods if negotiations fail [4][5] - The EU Commission stated that the current US tariff policy affects €380 billion of EU exports, accounting for 70% of EU exports to the US [5] Group 4 - Warnings have been issued that proposed US tariffs could severely hinder Germany's economic recovery, with a potential recession in 2025 [6] - Analysts predict that a 30% tariff on EU exports could push the Eurozone economy into recession by late 2025, with significant growth reductions expected [6][7] - Deutsche Bank's analysis suggests that the effective tariff rate could range from 12%-17%, significantly higher than the approximately 1% level at the beginning of the year [6] Group 5 - Despite the trade tensions, European stock markets are performing well, with major indices near historical highs [7] - The CAC 40 index in France has risen by 5.8% year-to-date, while the DAX index in Germany has increased by 21.3% [7]