Group 1 - The G7 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting concluded in Banff, Alberta, Canada, emphasizing the importance of unity in addressing complex global challenges [1] - The communiqué highlighted a consensus among participants that economic policy uncertainty has declined from its peak, while concerns about unsustainable global macroeconomic imbalances persist [1] - A call to action was issued to combat financial crimes, with Canada committing CAD 4.8 million in new technical assistance to developing economies [1] Group 2 - The G7 agreed to support the World Bank-led initiative to strengthen resilient and inclusive supply chains, with Canada pledging CAD 20 million for this purpose in Latin America and the Caribbean [1] - Participants acknowledged the risks associated with the increase of low-value goods imports into G7 markets [1] - Continued support for Ukraine was reiterated by all parties involved in the meeting [2]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser believes that China has the capability and determination to stimulate economic vitality and achieve its growth targets despite challenges from the US trade dispute [1][3] - Hauser observed that Chinese business leaders are generally confident about China's ability to gain an advantage in the trade war, with many believing that fiscal stimulus measures have positively impacted the economy since January [3][4] - The sentiment among Australian companies regarding collaboration with China is optimistic, supported by expectations of improved market conditions in early 2025 and confidence in the Chinese government's ability to maintain economic vitality [4] Group 2 - Hauser noted that the Chinese anticipate that the actual costs of US tariffs will be borne by the US itself, and there is a strong resolve in China not to mitigate this impact [4] - The general belief among the Chinese is that a significant depreciation of the yuan would lessen the impact of US tariffs on American consumers, but there is little support for this idea as China does not wish to alleviate the tariff burden on the US [4]

Group 1 - The article discusses the changing dynamics of U.S.-Japan relations, highlighting Japan's resilience in trade negotiations and its refusal to compromise national interests despite U.S. pressure [4][15][19] - It emphasizes the historical context of U.S. trade wars, particularly the impact on Japan's economy in the past, and draws parallels to current events [3][6][19] - The article notes the significant role of Japanese households, referred to as "Watanabe-san," in cross-border arbitrage and their recent struggles due to rising borrowing costs and currency fluctuations [9][10][11] Group 2 - The article points out the decline in U.S. Treasury bond ratings and its implications for liquidity in the banking sector, leading to increased selling pressure on bonds [6][7][8] - It highlights the interconnectedness of U.S. and Japanese financial markets, particularly in the context of currency exchange rates and the potential for significant volatility [22][23][24] - The article suggests that the Federal Reserve's actions and policies are in direct opposition to the current U.S. administration's trade strategies, indicating a potential internal conflict within U.S. economic policy [19][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk of Trump's trade war persists, and the risks of economic recession and geopolitical unrest are rising. The risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, and the Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts [1]. - The US has been downgraded by Moody's, and the auction of new 20 - year US bonds was cold, showing investors' concerns about the fiscal outlook. Geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East are rising [1]. - Multiple Fed officials expect tariffs to push up prices. Despite the temporary cooling of the US - China trade war, fiscal uncertainty makes the US economic outlook still weak. The market currently expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total rate - cut space in 2025 has dropped to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index is oscillating downward, and US bond yields are strong at a high level [1]. - The CRB commodity index is oscillating and rebounding, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. It is expected that precious metals will be oscillating and strengthening in the short - term, oscillating at a high level in the medium - term, and rising in a step - like manner in the long - term [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals continued to rebound. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 1.22%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 1.06%. International gold prices such as Comex gold and London gold, and domestic gold prices such as Shanghai gold and gold T + D all showed an upward trend compared with the previous day and the previous week [1][2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [3]. Silver - **Market Performance**: The price trend of silver is anchored to that of gold. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions were reduced, and iShare silver ETF added positions again. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver decreased slightly. International and domestic silver prices also showed an upward trend compared with the previous day and the previous week [5]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [5]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: The federal funds target rate ceiling, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate all decreased by 0.25. M2 increased by 0.24 year - on - year. The 10 - year US real bond yield, US bond spreads (3 - month - 10 - year, 2 - year - 10 - year), and various interest rate spreads showed different degrees of change. The US dollar index decreased by 0.42 compared with the previous day and 1.41 compared with the previous week [7][9]. - **Inflation**: CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, and core PCE price index all showed different degrees of change year - on - year and month - on - month. The 1 - year and 5 - year inflation expectations of the University of Michigan also changed [9]. - **Economic Growth**: GDP showed a decline both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter. The unemployment rate remained unchanged, and non - farm payrolls decreased by 0.08 [9]. - **Labor Market**: ADP employment decreased by 8.5, and the number of initial jobless claims remained unchanged. The number of job vacancies decreased by 31.6, and the number of Challenger corporate layoffs decreased by 16.98 [9]. - **Real Estate Market**: The NAHB housing market index decreased by 6, existing home sales decreased by 25, new home sales increased by 10, and new home starts increased by 12.4 [9]. - **Consumption**: Retail sales increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. Personal consumption expenditure increased month - on - month but decreased slightly year - on - year. The personal savings rate decreased by 0.2 [9]. - **Industry**: The industrial production index increased year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. Capacity utilization decreased by 0.11 [9]. - **Trade**: Exports decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, imports decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The trade deficit decreased by 1.73 [9]. - **Economic Surveys**: The ISM manufacturing PMI index decreased by 0.3, the ISM service PMI index increased by 0.8, the Markit manufacturing PMI index increased by 0.9, and the Markit service PMI index decreased by 2.9 [9]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's central bank gold reserves increased by 4.98 tons, while the US and the world's remained unchanged [9][11]. - **IMF Foreign Exchange Reserves**: The US dollar's share increased by 0.51, the euro's share decreased by 0.2, and the RMB's share remained basically unchanged [11]. - **Gold/ Foreign Exchange Reserves**: Globally, China, and the US all showed an increase in the proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves [11]. - **Safe - Haven Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index increased by 21.94, and the VIX index decreased by 0.18 compared with the previous day but increased by 2.86 compared with the previous week [11]. - **Commodity Attributes**: The CRB commodity index increased by 0.39 compared with the previous day and 2.71 compared with the previous week. The offshore RMB exchange rate decreased slightly [11]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from June 2025 to December 2026 is provided, showing a trend of gradual change in the expected interest rate range [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that U.S. stock investors are exhibiting "extreme complacency" regarding the impact of the trade war on corporate earnings, suggesting that current market expectations may be overly optimistic [1] Economic Indicators - Corporate capital expenditure willingness has shown negative growth for the fourth time this century [1] - The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has reached a multi-decade low [1] - Two-thirds of American households anticipate an increase in unemployment over the next year [1] Market Sentiment - The article emphasizes that the confidence of businesses and households has been significantly impacted during the tariff period, making it difficult for market sentiment to return to levels seen in December of the previous year [1] - Current market expectations project earnings growth of 10% and 14% for the S&P 500 index over the next two years, which is substantially higher than the historical compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.7% over the past 40 to 50 years, indicating a clear overvaluation [1] Analyst Behavior - Sell-side institutions are reluctant to highlight these risks due to reputational damage from previous inaccurate recession forecasts for 2022-2023, leading to a hesitance to speak against prevailing market trends [1]

| | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | 2025/5/22 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 最新 | 数据指标 | 环比 | | | EC主力收盘价 | 1768.000 29.8↑ EC次主力收盘价 2206 | | | -21.20↓ | | 期货盘面 | EC2506-EC2508价差 -438.00 +5.90↑ EC2506-EC2510价差 316.10 | | | +58.50↑ | | EC合约基差 | -502.70 -90.80↓ | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 22184 0↑ | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 1265.30 1,455.31 -37.32↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | | | 134.62↑ | | | 1479.39 134.22↑ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） 1,227.97 SCFI（综合指数）（周） | | | 0.07↑ | | 现货价格 | CCFI（综合指数）（周） 1104.88 -1.50↓ CCFI（欧线）（周） 1,43 ...

欧洲央行预计将在6月再次降息，但随着经济表现好于预期，以及通胀挑战可能在未来重新显现，后续 暂停降息的呼声渐高。 欧洲央行在过去一年中迅速放松货币政策，因此前失控的消费者通胀如今已得到有效控制，政策重点也 随之转向疲软的经济增长。全球贸易战、美国政策的不确定性，以及欧洲内部根深蒂固的低效率问题， 都加剧了经济增长的困境。 欧洲央行在过去八次会议中已进行了七次降息，这为经济发展提供了一定的喘息空间。然而，政策制定 者现在必须协调短期与长期经济前景之间的差异。 在接下来的几个月里，通胀可能会进一步下降，甚至低于欧洲央行设定的2%目标。这不禁让人回想起 新冠疫情前的十年，当时欧洲央行曾试图推动物价上涨至目标水平，但最终未能成功。 但从长远来看，政府支出的大幅增加、逆全球化趋势、贸易壁垒，以及劳动年龄人口减少导致的劳动力 市场压力，都有可能对物价形成上行压力。 一些政策制定者表示，目前的讨论焦点并非6月的降息决定，因为这一决策已基本在市场预期之中。鉴 于长期风险的存在，后续几个月的政策信号才是关键所在。 欧洲央行执委、直言不讳的政策鹰派人物伊莎贝尔·施纳贝尔（Isabel Schnabel）明确呼吁暂停降息，她 指出 ...

【黄金期货最新行情】 | 5月22日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 780.10 | 1.22% | 307542 | 224049 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 数据显示，5月22日上海黄金现货价格报价779.8元/克，相较于期货主力价格（778.78元/克）升水1.02 元/克。 亚特兰大联邦储备银行总裁博斯蒂克周二表示，美国企业可能已经耗尽应对更高进口税的策略，无法再 推迟调整价格或雇佣状况，经济可能正处于新一轮价格上涨的边缘。 他目前预计，美联储今年只会进行一次25个基点的降息，之后还需要几个月的时间，特朗普政府政策的 效果才会明朗化。圣路易斯联储总裁穆萨莱姆周二表示，即使近期中美贸易关系缓和，劳动力市场似乎 仍可能走弱，物价将上涨。 不过，如果贸易局势缓和势头持续，美联储当前的货币政策立场可能"仍然合适"。美国总统特朗普推动 的减税法案陷入僵局。 目前，市场关注的焦点是美国众议院计划于本周末进行的一次关键投票。众议院的共和党领导人表示， 尽管税收法 ...

美国政府的关税政策对其国内经济的冲击在逐步显现，内河的货物运输量开始下滑。 尽管Marty Shell表示能理解特朗普政府试图实现的贸易目标，但他们应该用手术刀，而不是电锯一刀 切。他在接受采访时说，关税对经济和进出口的影响最大，几乎等同于对美国人民的征税，使得美国企 业和消费者面临着艰难抉择。 美国陆军工程兵部队（USACE）近日发布的数据显示，受关税政策影响，今年前4个月，阿肯色河沿线 总货运量约为380万吨，同比减少15%；其中，4月单月同比降幅达21%。 水运以其运能大、成本低、污染小、占地少的显著优势，在促进美国经济繁荣和区域互联发挥关键力 量。密西西比河水系以其庞大的规模和广泛的覆盖范围，占据了美国内河航道通航总里程的75%。其中 的阿肯色河航运系统是美国内河航道网的重要组成部分，主要负责运输农产品、木材、石油和煤炭等资 源，支撑流域经济发展。 管理阿肯色河沿岸范布伦港和史密斯堡港驳船交通运营的Marty Shell曾在2月特朗普上台前后预测，如 果特朗普的关税既广泛又有深度，吨位将受到打击。USACE的最新报告发布后，他进一步表示，由于 关税的不确定性，供应链陷入了一定程度的瘫痪。他们最怕的是， ...

编者按：2025清华五道口全球金融论坛于5月17-18日举办。在开幕式上，2001年诺贝尔经济 学奖得主迈克尔·斯宾塞通过视频连线形式发表主旨演讲，并参与讨论了此次贸易战对全球 经济的影响、AI对于金融和经济发展的作用等议题。观察者网经清华大学五道口金融学院 授权，整理、刊载迈克尔·斯宾塞的发言。 【对话/迈克尔·斯宾塞，整理/观察者网 唐晓甫】 主持人：想先问您一个问题：中美部分关税在90天内的临时性暂停执行，我们看到这一消息提振了全球 股市，并受到市场广泛欢迎。这是一个积极的进展，但也仅仅是一个开始。我认为所有人都想知道，中 美贸易在90天之后，最差与最好的情况会是如何？我们的未来将去向何方？ 迈克尔·斯宾塞：我们正处于一个充满不确定性的时代，中美刚刚达成一个短期共识，这无疑是非常积 极的进展。没有人愿意在相互伤害的道路上越走越远，这一协议也许将有助于推动双方进一步谈判并带 来更多改变。 在取消那些不合理的措施后，美方的目标或将更加聚焦于核心领域的直接投资，这或能在美国经济结构 中发挥作用，助力相关行业保持甚至提升竞争力。 4月2日掀起的关税战的最大问题在于缺乏针对性，几乎对所有领域一并征税。这种做法对美 ...