今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-白银】 最新一轮的以色列与伊朗冲突对10年期美 国国债造成的抛售压力可能会产生持久影响。自上周五双方冲 突以来，受油价飙升和预算赤字担忧的推动，10年期美债收益 率已上涨逾10个基点。评：油价走高，美国通胀存在持续走高 的风险。全球经济下行压力持续加大，经济基本面利空白银。 地缘政治激化，也利空白银。但是白银是否会跟随黄金上涨， 仍然需要注意。市场关注美联储降息预期。白银短期震荡等待 会议指引。关注黄金走势是否对白银有影响。 【短评-橡胶】泰国原料稳中有涨。杯胶上涨0.4泰铢/公斤 至47.45泰铢/公斤，胶水持平，仍然为56.75泰铢/公斤；云南 原料也出现了明显的上涨。制干胶胶水上涨0.2-0.4元/公斤至 13.1-13.3元/公斤；青岛库存增加1400吨至60.69万吨，增加 0.23%。其中保税区库存下降1.87%至8.39万吨。一般贸易库存 增加0.58%至52.29万吨。评：产区新胶释放缓慢，成本存一定 支撑，需求端暂未有明显改善迹象。阶段性原油对相关品种影 响比重变大，偏震荡偏多对待。 投资咨询中心 2025年06月17日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shi ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 17 日 对二甲苯：中期价格承压 PTA：聚酯大规模检修，中期价格承压 MEG：多 PTA 空 MEG 减仓 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 日 期 | P X主力收盘 | P T A主力收盘 | M E G主力收盘 | P F主力收盘 | S C主力收盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-06-16 | 6758 | 4766 | 4374 | 6510 | 3874 | | 2025-06-13 | 6780 | 4782 | 4334 | 6530 | 3829 | | 2025-06-12 | 6536 | 4620 | 4234 | 6362 | 3645 | | 2025-06-11 | 6528 | 4620 | 4285 | 6414 | 3563 | | 2025-06-10 | 6502 | 4612 | 4269 | 6358 | 3559 | | 日度变化 | -0. ...

2025年06月17日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 所 商 品 研 究 观点与策略 | 黄金：地缘冲突缓和 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 2 | | 铜：缺乏驱动，价格震荡 | 4 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 6 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 6 | | 锌：承压运行 | 8 | | 铅：中期偏多 | 9 | | 锡：紧现实弱预期 | 10 | | 镍：矿端担忧有所降温，冶炼供应弹性饱满 | 12 | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，供需双弱低位震荡 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 17 日 黄金：地缘冲突缓和 白银：高位回落 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日 ...

工业硅：逢高空配思路为主 多晶硅：关注市场情绪变化 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 2025 年 06 月 17 日 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2509收盘价（元/吨） | 7,370 | 25 | -105 | -1,120 | | | | Si2509成交量（手） | 507,279 | 136,909 | -32,715 | 124,643 | | | | Si2509持仓量（手） | 323,363 | 219,674 | 145,700 | 176,838 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2507收盘价（元/吨） | 34,320 | 625 | 215 | - | | | | PS2507成交量（手） | 62,835 | -19,316 | -60,891 | - | | | | PS2507持仓量（手） | 51,277 | -5,586 ...

交产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月17日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 | 品种 | 6月16日 | 6月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 単位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 云南国富全乱胶(SCRWF):下海 | 13900 | 13900 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 全乳基差 (切换至2509合约) | -10 | 25 | -35 | -140.00% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 13750 | 13750 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 非标价差 | -160 | -125 | -35 | -28.00% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 47.45 | 47.05 | 0.40 | 0.85% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 56.75 | 56.75 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 12600 | 12200 | 400 | 3.28% | | | 天然橡胶:胶水:西双版纳州 | 13100 | 12 ...

热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/6/16 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,104 | +22↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1528393 | -26852↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | 118,964 | -4912↓ HC10-1合约价差(元/吨) | 3 | +1↑ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Bearish investment view, suggesting that investors can buy put options at high prices [3] - Soda Ash: Bearish investment view, recommending buying put options at high prices [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of glass and soda ash remain weak, with prices reaching low levels and high price elasticity. The downstream terminal demand has entered the off - season, leading to weak supply and demand for glass. The continuous decline in raw fuel prices has weakened cost support, putting pressure on prices. The supply - demand surplus contradiction of soda ash has intensified again. After the end of maintenance, the resumption of production has accelerated, highlighting the pressure of supply surplus. Although the direct demand is okay, the downstream negative feedback pressure has increased significantly, and cost support has weakened, also putting pressure on prices [39] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview Glass - Supply: Bearish. This week, the daily output of national float glass was 155,700 tons, a 0.7% decrease from 5 days ago. The industry's start - up rate was 75.42%, a 0.25 - percentage - point decrease from 5 days ago, and the capacity utilization rate was 77.48%, a 0.66 - percentage - point decrease from 5 days ago. Two production lines were shut down and two were ignited this week, with no glass output from the ignited lines. Next week, one previously ignited line may start producing glass, and another line may be shut down, with overall output remaining stable [3] - Demand: Bearish. The demand outlook has weakened, the off - season has arrived, and demand has declined marginally. The pressure for stable growth is high, the mid - term real estate downturn is difficult to reverse, the year - on - year decline in completion data continues, and there are still concerns about future demand [3] - Inventory: Neutral. The inventory has slightly decreased. The enterprise inventory is 69.685 million heavy cases, a 69,000 - heavy - case (0.10%) decrease from the previous period, and a 19.86% increase year - on - year. The inventory days are 30.8 days, a 0.5 - day decrease from the previous period [3] - Basis/Spread: Neutral. The basis remained stable this week, and the 09 - 01 spread fluctuated [3] - Valuation: Neutral. The current price is at a relatively low level, but cost support has weakened [3] - Macro and Policy: Neutral. Sino - US negotiations are continuing, and the pressure for domestic stable growth is high [3] - Investment View: Bearish. Weak supply and demand are putting pressure on prices [3] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Buy put options at high prices; Arbitrage: None [3] Soda Ash - Supply: Bearish. Supply has increased. This week, the soda ash output was 740,100 tons, a 36,000 - ton (5.12%) increase from the previous week. Among them, the light soda ash output was 334,300 tons, a 12,400 - ton increase, and the heavy soda ash output was 405,800 tons, a 23,600 - ton increase. Recently, equipment operation has been relatively stable, with few maintenance enterprises. Previously maintained enterprises have gradually resumed production, and overall supply is expected to increase [4] - Demand: Bearish. Demand has remained stable. The demand from float and photovoltaic industries has been stable, but the terminal demand is not ideal, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase on demand, with a sharp increase in negative feedback pressure [4] - Inventory: Bearish. The inventory has increased. The total manufacturer inventory is 1.6863 million tons, a 59,300 - ton (3.64%) increase from last Thursday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory is 811,300 tons, a 21,300 - ton increase, and the heavy soda ash inventory is 875,000 tons, a 38,000 - ton increase. The inventory shows an increasing trend, and some enterprises have accumulated inventory [4] - Basis/Spread: Neutral. The basis fluctuated this week, and the 09 - 01 spread remained stable [4] - Valuation: Neutral. The current price has moved down, but cost support has weakened. The cost of the combined soda process is about 1,200 yuan/ton, the ammonia - soda process is about 1,260 yuan/ton, and the natural soda process is about 1,000 yuan/ton [4] - Macro and Policy: Neutral. Sino - US negotiations are continuing, and the pressure for domestic stable growth is high [4] - Investment View: Bearish. Supply has recovered, and the surplus pressure is gradually increasing [4] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Buy put options at high prices; Arbitrage: None [4] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review Glass - Price: This week, the price declined. The main contract closed at 976 (- 21), and the Shahe spot price was 1048 (- 8) [6] Soda Ash - Price: This week, the price fluctuated downward. The main contract closed at 1156 (- 56), and the Shahe spot price was 1220 (- 23) [11] Spread/Basis - Soda Ash: The 09 - 01 spread and the basis fluctuated [22] - Glass: The 09 - 01 spread and the basis fluctuated [22] 3.3 Supply - Demand Fundamental Data Glass - Supply: Generally stable. Production has decreased. With the continuous decline in spot prices, glass production profits have decreased. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 182.83 yuan/ton, a 12.15 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous week; that using coal - made gas was 80.72 yuan/ton, a 10.24 - yuan/ton decrease; and that using petroleum coke was - 128.47 yuan/ton, a 17.14 - yuan/ton decrease [26] - Demand: Weak. Downstream deep - processing orders are weak. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises are 10.4 days, a 0.5% increase from the previous period and a 7.2% decrease year - on - year. The mid - and back - end completion data of the real estate industry is poor. From January to April, the construction area was 6.20315 billion square meters, a 9.7% year - on - year decrease; the new construction area was 178.36 million square meters, a 23.8% decrease; and the completion area was 156.48 million square meters, a 16.9% decrease [27][28] - Inventory: Slightly decreased. The enterprise inventory is 69.685 million heavy cases, a 69,000 - heavy - case (0.10%) decrease from the previous period, and a 19.86% increase year - on - year. The inventory days are 30.8 days, a 0.5 - day decrease from the previous period [29] Soda Ash - Supply: Production is gradually recovering. Supply has increased. The profit of soda ash plants has decreased. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process is 20.70 yuan/ton, a 29.20 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous week. The theoretical profit of the combined soda process (double - ton) is 139.50 yuan/ton, a 38.50 - yuan/ton decrease [33] - Demand: The direct demand is okay, but the negative feedback pressure is high. The demand from float and photovoltaic industries is stable, but the terminal demand is not ideal, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase on demand. The inventory has increased [36]

2025年06月15日 国泰君安期货研究周报 观点与策略 | 镍：矿端担忧有所降温，冶炼供应弹性饱满 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，供需双弱低位震荡 | 2 | | 工业硅：上游继续复产，空配思路为主 | 11 | | 多晶硅：关注下周仓单注册信息，反弹后空配 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：矿价企稳，产量回升，偏弱震荡，建议反套 | 20 | | 全国碳市场：CEA大幅反弹，CCER活跃度攀升 | 29 | | 棕榈油：美国生柴政策利好，带动油脂上行 | 33 | | 豆油：压榨恢复较好，国内油脂弱于国际 | 33 | | 豆粕：生柴政策利多美豆，偏强震荡 | 38 | | 豆一：豆类市场氛围偏多，偏强震荡 | 38 | | 玉米：高位震荡 | 44 | | 白糖：低位整理 | 50 | | 棉花：商业库存下降快支撑棉价 | 57 | | 生猪：降重路径改变，等待现货印证 | 64 | | 花生：震荡行情 | 70 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 二 〇 二 五 年 度 1）中国精炼社会库存减少 92 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 石油沥青周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 期货从业资格号：F3082452 日期：2025年6月15日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 价格&价差 02 基本面数据 03 市场回顾 期现 价差结构 需求 供应 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 ◆ 我们的观点：跟随原油偏强，淡季裂解收窄 ◆ 我们的逻辑：过去一周，BU跟随大幅上行，但在油品板块中涨势居弱。根据隆众资讯，本周期国内沥青均价为3697元/ 吨，环比上周期上涨35元/吨。周内中石化部分地区主营价格继续推涨，其中山东主营周内累计上涨80元/吨，华东主营 炼厂周内涨20元/吨，华南主营炼厂周内上涨20-80元/吨，但价格上涨后实际成交表现一般，近期高价有所承压；虽然 周内国际原油大幅上涨，但现货基本偏稳运行，下游多刚需采购，高价需求乏力。北方地区沥青现货资源有所支撑，考 虑部分炼厂库存低位以及限量等因素支撑，市场价格仍 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon maintains an oversupply pattern, with the disk still having a downward driving force, and it is recommended to short at high prices. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 6,800 - 7,300 yuan/ton next week [6][7]. - Polysilicon also follows the idea of shorting on rallies. The spot price is expected to continue falling after the SNEC meeting this week, and the disk is expected to be in the range of 33,000 - 34,000 yuan/ton next week [7]. - It is recommended to continue holding the PS2507/PS2508 inter - period reverse spread strategy and choose the opportunity to take profit by paying attention to the warehouse receipt registration situation. It is recommended that upstream industrial silicon and polysilicon factories adopt the selling hedging strategy [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - The reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices of three major ports/warehouses of industrial silicon from May 23, 2025, to June 13, 2025, are provided, including different grades such as Si5530, Si4210, and Si3303 [10]. 2. Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Smelting and Raw Material Ends - Supply: Factories in Southwest and Northwest regions are continuously resuming production, providing supply increments. Xinjiang factories have the feasibility of starting production after the electricity price cut, and there is an expectation of continued resumption to near - full operation. The entry of the Southwest region into the wet season also has a driving force for resumption [3]. - Inventory: This week, the social inventory decreased by 15,000 tons, and the factory inventory decreased by 3,200 tons. The overall industry inventory decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 11,000 tons compared with last week [3]. 3. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Polysilicon - Supply: The weekly output has a marginal increase in the short term. It is expected that the production schedule in June will be 105,000 tons, an increase compared with May. The inventory of silicon material manufacturers has started to accumulate, and the upstream inventory pressure has increased [4]. - Demand: Terminal demand has declined, leading to an expectation of a downward adjustment in silicon wafer production schedules. After the "531" rush - installation ended, the demand declined, and the silicon wafer production schedules from May to June continued to show a monthly downward trend. The silicon wafer price has continued to fall, and the expected downward adjustment in production schedules has deepened [5]. 4. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Organic Silicon - Supply: This week, the weekly output of organic silicon decreased, and the subsequent resumption space of organic silicon enterprises is not large, and the marginal demand for industrial silicon has decreased [4]. - Demand: The terminal of organic silicon has not improved, and the consumption boost is limited [4]. 5. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Aluminum Alloy - Entering June - July, it is the off - season for aluminum alloy consumption, with overall rigid - demand orders, and the actual trading volume has not increased significantly [4].