Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The long - term upward trend of gold and silver prices is expected to continue, and the target range for this year is raised. The upper limit of spot gold is expected to be 5900 - 6000 US dollars per ounce, and the upper limit of spot silver is expected to be 120 - 150 US dollars per ounce. However, the risk of overheating in the short - term market continues to increase, and investors need to pay attention to the rhythm and holding position risks [8][11] 3. Summary by Related Contents Price Movement - On January 26th, the prices of gold and silver rose sharply. The Shanghai Gold Index rose by 3.67% and the Shanghai Silver Index rose by 12.78%. The spot price of gold in London broke through $5,100 per ounce, and the spot price of silver in London approached $110 per ounce [3][4] Commentary and Outlook - **Geopolitical Factors**: In January, the US had frequent conflicts with South America, Europe, and Iran. Geopolitical risks led to a credit crisis in the US dollar, which was an important upward driver for precious metals. Disputes over Greenland between the US and Europe and the tense situation in Iran repeatedly disturbed the market, and the risk - aversion sentiment provided direct impetus for precious metals. The poor performance of US stocks, bonds, and currencies in January further supported the long - term upward trend of precious metals [6][9] - **Federal Reserve Factors**: The chairperson of the Federal Reserve was undecided, and the independence risk exceeded the impact of delaying the interest rate cut. The recently disclosed economic data in the US maintained overall resilience, and the Fed's attendance for the interest rate cut this year was postponed to June. However, the precious metals market responded minimally to the delay of the interest rate cut expectation. Reid became the candidate with the highest winning probability, and his dovish remarks injected a strong stimulant into the future interest rate cut space [7][10] - **Market Risk and Target Range**: The risk of overheating in the short - term market continues to increase. The volatility of silver prices has remained at a historical high, and gold prices have risen. The conclusion of the 232 investigation on key minerals eliminated the short - term tariff risk for silver, and the return of inventory led to a decline in the London silver lease interest rate. If geopolitical issues ease temporarily or the Federal Reserve makes an unexpected hawkish statement, it may increase the risk of short - term market adjustment. Based on multiple factors, the target range for gold and silver this year is raised [8][11]

该行指出，沃勒和鲍曼两位理事可能支持这一决定，斯蒂芬·米兰将成为唯一持反对意见者。 高盛预测，美联储将在2026年降息两次，首次降息可能在6月份。 (金十数据APP) 高盛预计1月份的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议将波澜不惊，各方料普遍同意维持利率不变。 高盛预计1月份的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议将波澜不惊，各方料普遍同意维持利率不变。 该行指出，沃勒和鲍曼两位理事可能支持这一决定，斯蒂芬·米兰将成为唯一持反对意见者。 高盛预测，美联储将在2026年降息两次，首次降息可能在6月份。 ...

自去年9月起，美联储连续三次议息会议采取降息，累计降息75个基点，将基准利率下调至3.50%-3.75% 的区间。虽然，重启降息周期源于美国就业市场招聘放缓，然而一系列降息决策的出台过程颇具争议 ——部分美联储官员明确反对降息，而理事米兰则主张以更快的节奏下调利率，两派意见的分歧多次公 开显现。 第一财经记者汇总发现，上一次会议以来的经济数据显示，美国劳动力市场和通胀趋势均无明显变化， 就业增长表现疲软，但在经济增长和消费支出向好的背景下，12月失业率回落至4.4%。美联储锚定2% 通胀目标所参考的个人消费支出价格指数PCE去年11月录得 2.8%，略高于市场预期。 尽管当前 "不招聘、不裁员"的状态远非经济复苏的强劲信号，但受政府停摆等因素影响，通胀相关数 据杂音较多，几乎无法为何时重启降息提供指引。因此美联储仍有时间进一步厘清通胀的真实走势。 目前美联储内部分歧仍难弥合，以堪萨斯联储主席施密德为代表的鹰派认为，美国经济中的通胀压力依 然显著，利率应维持不变。而美联储理事鲍曼表示，鉴于劳动力市场的疲软状态，政策制定者此刻就释 放利率将维持不变的信号还为时过早。"如果劳动力市场状况未能出现清晰且持续的改善，我 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sharp rise in international gold prices is the result of geopolitical turmoil, the shaking of the global political and economic order, and a continuously loose liquidity environment. In 2026, the Fed is expected to continue to cut interest rates, and the loose liquidity environment provides strong support for the rise of precious metals. Global investors' strategic allocation demand for precious metals has increased, and the scale of gold and silver ETFs has continued to expand, driving up precious metal prices. Short - term silver has risen significantly, and there may be some pressure for funds to take profits, while gold is more stable [4]. - Morgan Stanley expects that driven by geopolitical uncertainty, continuous central bank gold purchases, and strong ETF demand, the gold price is expected to rise to $5,700 per ounce in the second half of the year. If the Fed starts to cut interest rates in 2026, it may further support strong physical gold demand [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 on the previous day were 1146.58 and 1143.32 respectively, with increases of 28.20 (2.52%) and 27.68 (2.48%) compared to the day before. The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 on the previous day were 27,189 and 27,207 respectively, with increases of 2259 (9.06%) and 2242 (8.98%) compared to the day before [3]. - **Positions and Volumes**: The positions of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 were 85,261 and 215,820 respectively, and the trading volumes were 76,211 and 395,962 respectively. The positions of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 were 169,868 and 322,579 respectively, and the trading volumes were 605,689 and 965,900 respectively [3]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: The spot premiums and discounts of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 were - 2.32 and 0.94 respectively, and those of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 were 324 and 306 respectively [3]. Spot Market - **Prices**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold T + D on the previous day was 1144.26, up 33.91 (3.05%) from the day before. The closing price of London Gold was $5042.75 per troy ounce, up $21.76 (0.44%) from the day before. The closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D on the previous day was 27,513, up 2525 (10.10%) from the day before. The closing price of London Silver was $106.61 per troy ounce, up $0.53 (0.52%) from the day before [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The current spreads of Shanghai Gold 2606 - Shanghai Gold 2604 and Shanghai Silver 2606 - Shanghai Silver 2604 were 3.26 and - 18.00 respectively. The current gold - to - silver ratio in the spot market was 41.59, and the ratios of Shanghai Gold to London Gold and Shanghai Silver to London Silver were 1.01 and 1.15 respectively [3]. Inventory - **Futures Exchanges**: The current inventories of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 103,029 kg and 573,810 kg respectively, with changes of + 1020 kg and - 7280 kg compared to the day before. The current inventories of gold and silver on the COMEX were 35,941,502 troy ounces and 415,241,837 troy ounces respectively, with changes of - 202,778 troy ounces and - 1,183,026 troy ounces compared to the day before [3]. Related Derivatives and Indicators - **Indices and Yields**: The current values of the US Dollar Index, S&P 500 Index, 10 - year US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil price, and US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate were 97.04, 6,950.23, 4.22%, $64.89, and 6.9572 respectively, with changes of - 0.46, + 34.62, - 0.02%, - 0.55, and - 0.0070 compared to the day before [3]. - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The current positions of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF were 1,087 tons and 15,974 tons respectively, with changes of 0 tons and - 116 tons compared to the day before. The current net positions of CFTC speculators in gold and silver were 244,770 and 25,214 respectively, with changes of - 6468 and - 6846 compared to the day before [3]. Macroeconomic News - **Geopolitical**: The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group has entered the US Central Command's area of responsibility in the western Indian Ocean. If the White House orders an attack on Iran, the strike group could launch military operations within "one or two days." Trump said the situation in Iran is "changing rapidly" and that Iran wants to reach an agreement [4]. - **Trade**: Trump announced that the reciprocal tariffs on South Korean automobiles, timber, pharmaceuticals, and all other goods will be raised from 15% to 25% due to the South Korean Congress's failure to approve the trade agreement [4]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectations**: According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 2.8%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.2%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 15.5%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 84.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0.4% [4]. - **Commodity Market Analysis**: An analyst pointed out that this is one of the most glorious days in the silver market. The price of silver has risen rapidly due to its small market size and low liquidity. Retail investors are flocking in, and there is a (relatively small - scale) gap in the spot market. This is good news for silver miners, but selling some future production in the futures market may bring some selling pressure [4]. - **Economic Data**: The monthly rate of US durable goods orders in November was 5.3%, the largest increase since May 2025 [4].

2026.01. 27 本文字数：1935，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 当地时间1月27日（周二），为期两天的美联储议息会议在美国华盛顿特区正式召开。 外界普遍预期，联邦公开市场委员会FOMC料将把基准利率维持在当前区间。本次会议不会发布新的经济和 政策预期，但市场目前预计，美联储将暂停进一步降息至5月之后，届时降息举措大概率由鲍威尔的继任者 推动。另一个焦点在于，鲍威尔将如何回应独立性和继任者问题。 降息料按下暂停键 按照日程安排，美联储于美东时间周三下午2点（北京时间周四凌晨3点）公布利率决议，半小时后，美联储 主席鲍威尔将出席新闻发布会。 自去年9月起，美联储连续三次议息会议采取降息，累计降息75个基点，将基准利率下调至3.50%-3.75%的 区间。虽然，重启降息周期源于美国就业市场招聘放缓，然而一系列降息决策的出台过程颇具争议——部分 美联储官员明确反对降息，而理事米兰则主张以更快的节奏下调利率，两派意见的分歧多次公开显现。 第一财经记者汇总发现，上一次会议以来的经济数据显示，美国劳动力市场和通胀趋势均无明显变化，就业 增长表现疲软，但在经济增长和消费支出向好的背景下，12月失业 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market opened higher on January 26, with the Dow Jones up 0.4%, Nasdaq rising over 0.3%, and S&P 500 increasing by more than 0.4% [1] - USA Rare Earth, a U.S. rare earth company, saw a significant increase in its stock price, rising by 15.83% to reach $30.520 [4] - The U.S. government plans to acquire a 10% stake in USA Rare Earth as part of a $1.6 billion debt and equity investment plan aimed at supporting the company's domestic rare earth mining and magnet production facilities [6] Group 2 - The CEO of USA Rare Earth stated that the government investment is expected to help the company achieve cash flow breakeven by 2029 and generate $900 million in free cash flow by 2030 [6] - In the broader market, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell over 0.5%, while individual Chinese stocks like Huya and Niu Technologies saw gains of over 14% and 8%, respectively [6] - Gold and silver prices remained high, with spot gold rising nearly 2% and spot silver increasing over 6% as of the report [6]

[ 本周，美联储将召开联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议。市场普遍预期本次会议将维持货币政策不 变，甚至认为3月会议降息25个基点的可能性微乎其微。当前，市场的焦点已转向特朗普即将公布的新 任美联储主席提名人选，以及该人选未来能否动员并说服委员会推动进一步降息。 ] 进入2026年，美国宏观政策正悬在两个致命的"不确定性"之上：其一是最高法院对总统关税权力的最终 裁决，其二则是美联储主席鲍威尔的继任人选。 从本周起，美国最高法院步入长达四周的休庭期，这意味着备受关注的关税案进入了昂贵的"空窗期"。 与此同时，美联储新任主席的竞争则来到"白热化"阶段，资产管理巨头贝莱德的高管里德（Rick Rieder）被视为当前的领跑者。 这两大议题共同构成了当前市场研判的核心变量。全球投资咨询公司BCA Research首席新兴市场/中国 策略师阿瑟·布达吉安（Arthur Budaghyan）对第一财经记者表示，在充分评估上述两大事件的不同情境 后，他的核心观点是"看空美元、减持美股，并对包括美股在内的全球股票市场持谨慎态度"。 目前，美国政府已在权衡使用其他法律工具，例如美国1974年《贸易法》第122条，该条款允许因 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices may reach $5,700 per ounce in the second half of the year due to increasing geopolitical uncertainty and support from central bank and ETF purchases, indicating that gold prices have not yet peaked [1] Central Bank Trends - Recent trends in central bank purchases suggest that gold is increasingly viewed as a major competitor to the US dollar in reserves [1] - Poland's recent decision to raise its gold target indicates that the country will continue to purchase gold despite high prices, which may encourage other central banks to follow suit [1] ETF Demand - Strong ETF demand remains robust, particularly in North America and Asia, contributing to the overall demand for physical gold [1] Interest Rate Outlook - Strong physical gold demand is expected to persist against the backdrop of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices are expected to rise to $5,700 per ounce in the second half of the year, driven by geopolitical uncertainty, continued central bank purchases, and strong ETF demand [1] Group 1: Central Bank Actions - Central banks, represented by countries like Poland, are increasing their gold reserves even when gold prices are high [1] - The ongoing purchases by central banks are a significant factor supporting gold prices [1] Group 2: Market Demand - Strong physical gold demand is anticipated, particularly if the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates in 2026 [1] - The demand from ETFs is also highlighted as a contributing factor to the expected rise in gold prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for a rare "bull market" in both stocks and bonds in the U.S. by 2026, driven by factors such as inflation reaching target levels, anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and significant tax incentives returning liquidity to the market [1] Group 1 - Inflation has quietly reached target levels, which may influence monetary policy decisions [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates soon, which could stimulate market activity [1] - A historic tax incentive is anticipated to boost liquidity in the market, creating favorable conditions for investment [1]