Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Currently, the supply is tight and the new crop faces high - temperature weather, which provides positive support. The short - term trend is upward. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips, and continuous attention should be paid to weather and macro factors [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 14,225 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 35,399 lots, down 4,976 lots; main contract open interest for cotton is 554,167 lots, down 5,311 lots; cotton warehouse receipts are 9,436 lots, down 65 lots; China Cotton Price Index CCIndex 3128B is 15,549 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2] - Cotton yarn main contract closing price is 20,430 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 265 lots, down 151 lots; main contract open interest for cotton yarn is 15,117 lots, down 2,106 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 96 lots, unchanged; China Yarn Price Index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32s is 20,740 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - China's imported cotton price index FCIndexM with 1% tariff is 13,693 yuan/ton, down 99 yuan; with sliding - scale duty is 14,414 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan. The arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32s is 22,103 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; for pure - cotton combed yarn 32s is 23,979 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons. The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,191 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 850,000 tons, up 24,000 tons [2] 产业情况 - Cotton import volume is 30,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume is 110,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. Imported cotton profit is 1,111 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 2.8298 million tons, down 628,900 tons [2] 下游情况 - Yarn inventory days are 23.86 days, up 1.52 days;坯布 inventory days are 35.46 days, up 2.57 days. Cloth output is 2.779 billion meters, up 109 million meters; yarn output is 2.065 million tons, up 114,000 tons. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1.5266714 billion US dollars, up 168.8977 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1.2048207 billion US dollars, down 58.3566 million US dollars [2] Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility is 12.54%, up 0.16%; at - the - money put option implied volatility is 12.54%, up 0.17%. Cotton 20 - day historical volatility is 8.57%, up 0.4%; 60 - day historical volatility is 9.03%, down 0.13% [2] Industry News - As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton is 57%, up from 54% the previous week and 53% the same period last year. Internationally, due to falling grain prices and rainfall forecasts in production areas, US cotton futures prices have declined [2] 新作方面 - In some parts of Xinjiang, there is high - temperature weather, and cotton is at a high risk of high - temperature heat damage [2][3]

Group 1 - Coking coal futures have surged significantly, reaching a new high for the year [1] - There is speculation about potential investment opportunities in coking coal futures [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 21, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to favorable rainfall in the US Midwest this week alleviating the pressure from previous high - temperatures, and the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations also pressured the market. The soybean crop's growth pressure is expected to be reduced by the rainfall despite a brief high - temperature period in the mid - week in the US Midwest. The 8 - month 1 - day tariff deadline may intensify negative market sentiment as few countries have reached agreements with the US. As of July 20, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, lower than the previous week and market expectations [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures - DCE Bean 1 2509 closed at 4199 yuan/ton (+1, +0.02%) during the day session and 4188 yuan/ton (+12, +0.29%) during the night session. DCE Bean Meal 2509 closed at 3069 yuan/ton (+26, +0.85%) during the day session and 3061 yuan/ton (+2, +0.07%) during the night session. CBOT Soybean 11 closed at 1026.75 cents/bushel (-8.25, -0.80%), and CBOT Bean Meal 12 closed at 284.9 dollars/short ton (-3.9, -1.35%) [1]. Spot - In Shandong, the spot price of bean meal (43%) was 2920 - 2950 yuan/ton, flat; different basis prices were given for different months. In East China, the price was 2900 - 2930 yuan/ton, up 10 or 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, with corresponding basis prices for different months. In South China, the price was 2920 - 2990 yuan/ton, -10 to +10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and Hainan Aosika had specific spot basis prices [1]. Main Industry Data - The trading volume of bean meal was 14.95 million tons per day, and the previous trading volume was 14.31 million tons per day. The inventory data was not available, and the previous inventory was 84.29 million tons per week [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On July 21, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. The main reasons were the expected favorable rainfall in the US Midwest this week to relieve the high - temperature pressure and the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate as of July 20 was 68%, lower than the previous week and market expectations [3]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of bean meal and bean 1 was 0, referring to the price fluctuations of the main contract during the day session on the report day [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the short - term driving force is expected to be weak, and the price will follow cost fluctuations. Factors include stable operation of PTA devices, planned commissioning of the Sanfangxiang device, off - season terminal demand, weak polyester production and sales, and increasing inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to the progress of new PTA device commissioning and downstream polyester load fluctuations [5]. - For MEG, the price center is expected to be strong in the short term. Although the port inventory in the middle of the month is expected to decline, the arrival of foreign ships will increase moderately in the second half of the month. The supply - demand situation in July - August has turned to a tight balance, better than market expectations. Attention should be paid to the power system recovery in Saudi Arabia [6]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the given content 2.每日提示 - **PTA**: The futures fluctuated and closed higher yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis declined significantly. The mainstream suppliers offered for sale. The current mainstream spot basis is at 09 + 6. The PTA factory inventory is 3.86 days, with no change compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [5]. - **MEG**: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol was firm at a high level, and the market negotiation was acceptable. The intraday commodity market atmosphere was good, and the ethylene glycol futures opened higher and fluctuated. The spot in this week briefly strengthened to a premium of 65 - 67 yuan/ton over the 09 contract, and the basis weakened significantly near noon. In the afternoon, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated within a narrow range. The mainstream spot negotiation was at a premium of 56 - 63 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. The overseas market price center of ethylene glycol strengthened slightly, and recent shipments were mainly negotiated and traded at 520 - 523 US dollars/ton. The inventory in East China is 49.40 tons, an increase of 1.37 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [6]. 3.今日关注 - Not provided in the given content 4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, PTA consumption, total demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the ethylene glycol operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, operating rate, output, ethylene glycol consumption, total demand, port inventory, and inventory changes from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. 5.影响因素总结 - **Likely Positive Factors**: There have been frequent unexpected events on the ethylene glycol supply side recently. Several devices in Saudi Arabia have unexpectedly shut down due to power problems, involving a production capacity of about 1.7 million tons. The load of a large - scale ethylene glycol producer in Zhejiang has been continuously decreasing. A 1.25 million - ton/year cracking device in Lianyungang is planned to be overhauled in August, which may postpone the restart of the 900,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol device [7]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: From the demand side, it is certain that the terminal demand is weakening due to the end of the export rush and the off - season of domestic demand [7]. 6.当前主要逻辑和风险点 - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be noted when the futures price rebounds [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests a strategy of shorting the EC2510 contract on rallies and holding the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads. The 2508 contract's performance depends on Maersk's 32 - week freight rates, with limited unilateral trading value. The 2510 contract, in the traditional off - season, should be shorted on rallies, but the downward trend may not be smooth [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Data - **Futures Contracts**: The EC2508 contract closed at 2,291.9, up 3.26%, with 7,390 in trading volume, 14,037 in open interest, and a decrease of 879 in open interest. The EC2510 contract closed at 1,592.7, down 2.35%, with 69,273 in trading volume, 51,185 in open interest, and a decrease of 186 in open interest. The EC2512 contract closed at 1,742.2, down 3.72%, with 7,755 in trading volume, 8,114 in open interest, and an increase of 60 in open interest [1]. - **Freight Rate Index**: On July 21, 2025, the SCFIS European route index was 2,400.50 points, down 0.9%; the SCFIS US - West route index was 1,301.81 points, up 2.8%. The SCFI European route index was 2,079 $/TEU, down 1.0%; the SCFI US - West route index was 2,142 $/FEU, down 2.4% [1]. 2. Spot Freight Rates - **Gemini Alliance**: Maersk's 31 - week Shanghai - Rotterdam opening price was 3,070 $/FEU (up 70 $/FEU from the previous period), and the latest price was 3,170 $/FEU. Hapag - Lloyd's FAK in late July was around 3,300 $/FEU [8]. - **OA Alliance**: The FAK in late July was around 3,500 $/FEU on average. Evergreen's online e - commerce platform quoted 3,760 $/FEU in August, up 100 - 200 $/FEU from early July [8]. - **PA Alliance**: ONE and HMM's rates in late July remained the same, Yangming's decreased by 100, with an average of around 3,300 $/FEU. ONE's offline price in early August remained the same, and the online e - commerce platform increased by 300 $/FEU [8]. - **MSC**: The FAK in early August increased by 200 to 3,640 $/FEU, the same as in early July [8]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - **Cargo Volume**: Benefiting from strong FOB cargo volume, shipping companies' loading conditions at the end of July were optimistic, and the cargo volume in early August was still supported. On a monthly basis, August is likely to see an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, but the inflection point of cargo volume is unclear [8]. 4. Contract Analysis - **2508 Contract**: Its performance depends on Maersk's 32 - week freight rates. In the neutral scenario, the 08 contract's valuation is around 2,050 - 2,100 points, and the delivery settlement price may be in the 2,100 - 2,200 points range. In the optimistic scenario, the delivery settlement price may be above 2,250 points. Unilateral trading value is limited [9]. - **2510 Contract**: October is the traditional off - season for the European route. Shipping companies need to suspend voyages to slow down the decline in freight rates. It is recommended to short on rallies, but the downward trend may not be smooth [9].

行业 沥青日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 22 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（碳市场工业硅） 研究员 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 按照 | CPC 月度展望来看，7 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 面丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆，豆粕进入累库阶段，油厂催提。饲 | | | | 料企业库存开始走高于去年同期，进一步补库积极性预计有所减缓。美国总统特朗 | | | | 普宣布与印度尼西亚达成农业贸易协议，该国承诺将采购 45 亿美元的美国农产品。 | | 豆粕 | 大区间震荡 | 印尼是美国大豆的第五大进口国，该消息提振美豆价格上涨。昨日国内豆粕价格跟 | | | | 随大幅上涨。短线反弹对待,前高附近及以上继续追多需注意做好仓位及风控管理。 | | | | 短期走势，在基本面偏弱及中美贸易关税成本支撑多空双重作用下，豆粕以大区间 | | | | 行情对待。主力【3020，3090】 | | | | 全球菜籽产量同比恢复，但加籽地区土壤墒情偏干，关注后续降雨情况。国内市场， | | | | 目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存环比整体去库，商业库存去库，但同比依然维持较高水平。 | | | 7 | 月至 9 月菜籽进口同比大幅 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and intraday trends being oscillatory and strong [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and strong. The reference view is to run strongly [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: After the previous bearish expectations were gradually digested, the Shanghai rubber futures price entered an oscillatory recovery trend. The sixth typhoon this year is expected to hit Hainan Island and Leizhou Peninsula, increasing the expectation of domestic natural rubber production reduction and boosting the rubber price. On the night of last Friday, the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and strong trend, with the price slightly rising 0.27% to 14,880 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain this trend on Monday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and strong. The reference view is to run strongly [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: After the rubber price callback digested bearish factors, combined with the recent stabilization and rebound of domestic and international crude oil futures prices, the Shanghai rubber futures continued the bullish upward trend. On the night of last Friday, the 2509 contract of synthetic rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and strong trend, with the price rising 1.41% to 11,840 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain this trend on Monday [7].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Pigs: Waiting for End-of-Month Confirmation" and was released on July 21, 2025 [1] Group 2: Analysts - The analysts are Zhou Xiaoqiu (Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0001891, Email: zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com) and Wu Hao (Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0018592, Email: wuhao8@gtht.com) [2] Group 3: Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan spot price is 14,430 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 50 yuan/ton; Sichuan spot price is 13,650 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 100 yuan/ton; Guangdong spot price is 15,490 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 300 yuan/ton [3] - **Futures Prices**: LH2509 is 14,135 yuan/ton with a year-on-year increase of 75 yuan/ton; LH2511 is 13,635 yuan/ton with a year-on-year increase of 100 yuan/ton; LH2601 is 13,820 yuan/ton with a year-on-year increase of 70 yuan/ton [3] - **Trading Volumes and Open Interests**: LH2509 trading volume is 28,962 lots, an increase of 904 lots from the previous day, and open interest is 63,659 lots, a decrease of 1,152 lots; LH2511 trading volume is 8,241 lots, an increase of 2,423 lots, and open interest is 43,903 lots, a decrease of 271 lots; LH2601 trading volume is 5,875 lots, an increase of 2,340 lots, and open interest is 24,099 lots, an increase of 859 lots [3] - **Price Spreads**: LH2509 basis is 295 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 125 yuan/ton; LH2511 basis is 795 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 150 yuan/ton; LH2601 basis is 610 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 120 yuan/ton; LH9 - 11 spread is 500 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 25 yuan/ton; LH11 - 1 spread is -185 yuan/ton with a year-on-year increase of 30 yuan/ton [3] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is [-2, 2], with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4] Group 5: Market Logic - Currently in the off - season of consumption, downstream digestion capacity is limited. Although large - scale farms have not increased supply, some small - scale farmers' willingness to sell has increased, leading to a rapid decline in spot prices. This confirms that the previous price increase was mainly due to inventory - building sentiment. The market expects price increases from late July to early August, which may lead to more concentrated sales. Wait for end - of - month spot price confirmation and pay attention to reserve policy trends recently [5] - In August, the purchase of piglets will enter the off - season, and the 03 contract will enter the piglet pricing period, where production capacity and cost logic may have an impact. Pay attention to setting stop - loss and take - profit levels. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5]

黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 Huangtianyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 苯乙烯基本面数据 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 21 日 苯乙烯：反内卷情绪强，短期偏强 【趋势强度】 苯乙烯趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表 示最看空，2 表示最看多。 【现货消息】 纯苯供需两增，苯乙烯供增需减，阶段性仍然以压缩利润为主。目前苯乙烯处于高产量、高利润、高 库存格局，仍然是空配为主。苯乙烯港口库存进入加速累库阶段。纯苯下游开工逐步恢复，产业逐步进入 补库存阶段，7 月检修损失量相对较多（虽然通过大量进口补充了国产损失），海外市场价格逐步恢复，短 期市场 5600-5700 仍然有支撑。重点关注压缩苯乙烯利润的头寸。（来源：《国泰君安期货周报》） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 昨日 | 前日 | | 变化 | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯2507 | 7,350 | 7,260 ...