Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports Group 2: Report Core Views Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, tin prices are expected to remain strong throughout the year. Maintain a bullish view on tin prices, hold existing long positions, and consider adding long positions on price pullbacks. Monitor the US interest rate decision and supply - side changes [1] Nickel - After the recent production cuts, the supply surplus has narrowed, but the supply pressure remains strong, limiting the upside potential. Macro factors are improving, but the price driver weakens after the valuation repair. The Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price has declined, and domestic inventory is increasing. In the short - term, the nickel price is expected to trade in a range, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [2] Stainless Steel - Macroeconomic conditions are temporarily stable, and supply pressure has eased slightly, but demand is weak in the off - season, and inventory reduction is difficult. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate and repair, with the main contract reference range of 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton. Focus on the implementation of steel mill production cuts and raw material price changes [3] Zinc - The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the export space has opened, but spot trading is average, causing zinc prices to oscillate. As TC decreases, supply pressure eases, and short - term prices have limited downside. Refined zinc exports tighten the spot market, boosting domestic zinc prices. In the future, if TC stabilizes, zinc production may increase again. Monitor the TC inflection point and refined zinc inventory changes, with the main contract reference range of 22,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton [5] Copper - Globally, the structural imbalance in copper supply and inventory drives short - term price surges, and price volatility may intensify. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the price bottom. The main contract should pay attention to the support level of 90,000 - 91,000 yuan/ton [6] Lithium Carbonate - The current macro environment and fundamentals support prices, but there are limited new driving factors. The market faces the resumption of large - scale production and the sustainability of off - season demand. In the short - term, the price is expected to trade in a wide range, with the main contract reference range of 92,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton [8] Aluminum - Alumina supply is in excess, and prices are expected to remain at the bottom and oscillate, with the main contract reference range of 2,500 - 2,700 yuan/ton. Observe the actual production cut scale and inventory inflection point. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the short - term, trading in the range of 21,500 - 22,200 yuan/ton, but beware of the risk of price pullbacks. Pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision and domestic inventory reduction [9] Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, with the main price fluctuation range shifting down to 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Consider closing positions if market expectations change [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures may continue to oscillate at high levels. Given the weak demand and significant production cutbacks, if there are no substantial production cuts, the spot price has limited upside potential, and the futures price is more likely to decline towards the spot price. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [11] Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price has limited downside due to strong cost support but is restricted by high inventory and high prices from rising. In the short - term, it is expected to maintain a high - level narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton. Monitor the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and downstream procurement rhythm [12] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Prices and Basis - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price increased to 316,000 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.64%; SMM 1 tin premium increased by 200% to 150 yuan/ton [1] - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased to 120,350 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.12%; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium decreased by 1.01% to 4,900 yuan/ton [2] - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,800 yuan/ton; the spot - futures price difference increased by 2.17% to 470 yuan/ton [3] - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased to 23,190 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.26%; the premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 65 yuan/ton [5] - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased to 92,215 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.09%; the premium decreased by 35 yuan/ton to 95 yuan/ton [6] - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price remained unchanged at 92,750 yuan/ton; the basis remained unchanged at 92,750 yuan/ton [8] - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased to 21,880 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.18%; the premium remained unchanged at - 90 yuan/ton [9] - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon decreased to 9,200 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1.08%; the basis increased by 37.60% to 860 yuan/ton [10] - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,600 yuan/ton; the scrap - to - refined price difference in Foshan for crushed primary aluminum increased by 3.86% to 1,829 yuan/ton [12] Inter - month Spreads - **Tin**: The spread of 2512 - 2601 increased by 42.86% to - 200 yuan/ton [1] - **Nickel**: The spread of 2601 - 2602 decreased by 100 yuan/ton to - 270 yuan/ton [2] - **Stainless Steel**: The spread of 2601 - 2602 remained unchanged at - 115 yuan/ton [3] - **Zinc**: The spread of 2512 - 2601 decreased by 30 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [5] - **Copper**: The spread of 2512 - 2601 decreased by 60 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [6] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spread of 2512 - 2601 increased by 1,840 yuan/ton to 1,580 yuan/ton [8] - **Aluminum**: The spread of AL 2512 - 2601 decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton [9] - **Industrial Silicon**: The spread of 2512 - 2601 increased by 8,750 yuan/ton to 75 yuan/ton [10] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spread of 2601 - 2602 decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton [12] Fundamental Data Production - **Tin**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49% to 11,632 tons; SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09% to 16,090 tons [1] - **Nickel**: In November, China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38% to 33,342 tons [2] - **Stainless Steel**: In November, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 0.72% to 178.70 million tons [3] - **Zinc**: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56% to 59.52 million tons [5] - **Copper**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05% to 110.31 million tons [6] - **Lithium Carbonate**: In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35% to 95,350 tons [8] - **Aluminum**: In November, domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82% to 363.66 million tons [9] - **Industrial Silicon**: In November, national industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17% to 40.17 million tons [10] - **Polysilicon**: Weekly polysilicon production increased by 7.50% to 2.58 million tons; monthly production decreased by 14.48% to 11.46 million tons [11] - **Aluminum Alloy**: In November, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.74% to 68.20 million tons; primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.84% to 30.27 million tons [12] Import and Export - **Tin**: In October, refined tin imports decreased by 58.55% to 526 tons; exports decreased by 15.33% to 1,480 tons [1] - **Nickel**: In October, refined nickel imports decreased by 65.66% to 9,741 tons [2] - **Stainless Steel**: In November, stainless steel imports increased by 3.18% to 12.41 million tons; exports decreased by 14.43% to 35.81 million tons [3] - **Zinc**: In October, refined zinc imports decreased by 16.94% to 1.88 million tons; exports increased by 243.79% to 0.85 million tons [5] - **Copper**: In October, electrolytic copper imports decreased by 15.61% to 28.21 million tons [6] - **Lithium Carbonate**: In October, lithium carbonate imports increased by 21.86% to 23,881 tons; exports increased by 63.05% to 246 tons [8] - **Aluminum**: In October, electrolytic aluminum imports increased by 0.61% to 24.84 million tons; exports decreased by 15.18% to 2.46 million tons [9] - **Industrial Silicon**: In November, industrial silicon exports decreased by 35.82% to 4.51 million tons [10] - **Polysilicon**: In November, polysilicon imports increased by 11.96% to 0.14 million tons; exports decreased by 27.99% to 0.15 million tons [11] - **Aluminum Alloy**: In October, unforged aluminum alloy ingot imports decreased by 7.06% to 7.64 million tons; exports increased by 31.49% to 3.09 million tons [12] Inventory - **Tin**: SHEF weekly inventory increased by 7.96% to 6,865 tons; social inventory increased by 2.39% to 8,012 tons [1] - **Nickel**: SHFE inventory increased by 4.23% to 42,508 tons; social inventory increased by 2.71% to 56,848 tons [2] - **Stainless Steel**: 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 2.06% to 49.20 million tons [3] - **Zinc**: China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 5.75% to 13.60 million tons; LME inventory increased by 0.69% to 5.8 million tons [5] - **Copper**: Domestic social inventory increased by 0.82% to 16.03 million tons; bonded - area inventory decreased by 12.82% to 7.75 million tons [6] - **Lithium Carbonate**: In November, lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 23.36% to 64,560 tons [8] - **Aluminum**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 0.17% to 59.50 million tons; LME inventory decreased by 0.48% to 52.6 million tons [9] - **Industrial Silicon**: National social inventory increased by 1.45% to 55.80 million tons [10] - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 3.56% to 29.10 million tons [11] - **Aluminum Alloy**: Recycled aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory decreased by 0.54% to 5.53 million tons [12]

Group 1 - The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently at 1.3853, showing a slight increase of 0.0001 from the previous trading day, with a fluctuation range indicating stability in the market [1] - Recent Canadian employment data exceeded expectations, reinforcing the Bank of Canada's strong policy stance, which supports the Canadian dollar [1] - Global trade concerns are affecting the Canadian export environment, limiting the appreciation potential of the Canadian dollar [1] Group 2 - The USD/CAD pair is experiencing a balance of forces, with key resistance at 1.3875 and support at 1.3800, indicating a potential range-bound movement [2] - Technical indicators suggest a market in a wait-and-see mode, with MACD convergence and RSI in a neutral zone [2] - Upcoming U.S. employment data and central bank policy decisions are expected to influence short-term volatility in the USD/CAD exchange rate [2]

12月10日，A股三大指数集体回调，COMEX黄金、白银期货价格止跌回升，黄金有色相关产品盘中强 势，截至10:00，有色金属ETF基金(516650)盘中转跌0.07%，黄金ETF华夏(518850)涨0.63%，黄金股 ETF(159562)涨0.86%，其持仓股湖南白银涨超4%，老铺黄金、白银有色、山金国际、晓程科技等股纷 纷走强。 统计显示，黄金ETF华夏(518850)近5天获得连续资金净流入，合计"吸金"4.10亿元。截至12月9日，产 品最新份额达11.24亿份，创成立以来新高。（数据来源：Wind） 宝城期货分析认为，昨日亚洲盘后金价走强，夜盘沪金也企稳回升，但上涨幅度有限。11月下旬以来金 价上行的动力主要来自于美联储降息预期持续升温，美元指数高位回落。短期市场对美联储降息预期计 价较为充分，而市场风险偏好回升使金价承压。临近美联储12月议息会议，短期市场趋于谨慎，黄金波 动下降，等待议息会议结果。美元指数短期反弹也使金价承压。短期预计维持震荡运行。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 ...

其一为新领航板块的出现。目前前期热点尚未完全退潮，但新的市场主线却迟迟未能确立，在此背景 下，多数资金选择收缩战线、持币观望，缺乏核心主线的带动，大盘难以摆脱震荡困局。? 其二为美联储降息预期的博弈落地。当前市场的分歧焦点已不再是 "是否降息"，而是 "降息幅度是否超 预期或不及预期"。具体来看，市场主要博弈两种极端情形，一是超预期的 50 个基点激进降息，二是不 及预期的暂停降息，这两种情形将成为左右短期市场走向的核心变量。 昨日 A 股市场呈现震荡分化态势，仅创业板指实现收红，其余主要指数均录得下跌，该走势基本符合 此前预期。究其原因，前期市场已呈现放量滞涨特征，这一信号通常预示着短期高点的形成。? 预计今日市场大概率延续昨日的震荡运行格局，同时市场成交量或将进一步收窄，热点板块也将呈现持 续涣散的状态。当前市场之所以迟迟未能打破僵局，核心是在等待两大关键变盘节点：? ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the overall industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Various commodities in the market show different trends and outlooks. Some commodities are expected to be strong, some are in a tight - balance or weak situation, and investors should adjust their strategies according to different market conditions [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Category Daily Selections - **Tin**: With strong fundamentals, tin prices are expected to remain strong this year. Hold existing long positions and consider buying on dips. Monitor US interest rate decisions and supply - side changes [2] - **Styrene**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, with limited upside. It is expected to be weak in the short - term. Pay attention to device changes and actual export transactions [3] - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices are falling, and the futures market is weak. Consider short - term short positions and a long - coke short - coking - coal arbitrage [4] - **Corn**: The supply is increasing, and the futures price is weak. Participate in the short - term and pay attention to the continuity of shipments [5] Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - The stock index opened low and closed low, while the ChiNext and STAR Market showed an upward trend. The market is affected by domestic and overseas policies and capital flows. Consider a bullish spread strategy on CSI 1000 put options on dips [6][7][8] Bond Futures - Bond futures rose across the board. The market may return to a volatile state in the short - term. Temporarily observe and focus on the central economic work conference. Consider participating in bonds with a maturity of less than 10 years [9][10][11] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Precious metals generally rose, with silver hitting a new high. Gold may oscillate around $4,200. Be cautious when chasing high on silver. Consider a low - buying strategy for platinum [12][13][14] Shipping Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European line index showed an upward trend. The market is expected to be volatile in the short - term [16] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Global inventory imbalance drives price increases. Long - term long positions can be held, and short - term long positions can be closed on rallies. Pay attention to inventory changes and squeeze risks [17][18][21] - **Alumina**: Supply is in excess, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. Short - term traders can consider light - position long positions or selling out - of - the - money put options [22][23] - **Aluminum**: Affected by macro factors, prices are expected to be strong in the short - term but may pull back. Pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision and inventory changes [24][26][27] - **Aluminum Alloy**: Cost support is strong, but demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in a narrow range at a high level. Consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 [27][28][29] - **Zinc**: TC is falling, and exports are improving the supply - demand structure. The price is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the TC inflection point and inventory changes [29][30][33] - **Tin**: Fundamentals are strong, and prices are expected to be strong. Hold existing long positions and buy on dips [33][34][37] - **Nickel**: The surplus is narrowing, but the upside is limited. It is expected to oscillate weakly. Pay attention to macro and industrial policies [37][38][39] - **Stainless Steel**: Supply pressure is slightly relieved, but demand is weak in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate and repair. Pay attention to the implementation of steel mill production cuts and raw material prices [40][42][43] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a state of divergence, and prices are expected to oscillate widely. Observe the market [44][45][46] - **Polysilicon**: Affected by the news of the establishment of a storage platform, futures prices are rising. However, demand is weak, and prices may fall. Observe the market [47][48][49] - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices are falling. It is expected to oscillate at a low level. Consider closing positions [50][51][52] Black Metals - **Steel**: Raw material price drops drag down steel prices. Consider closing long - rebar short - iron - ore positions and continue to hold the strategy of narrowing the hot - rolled and rebar spread [52][53][56] - **Iron Ore**: Iron production is falling, and port inventory is increasing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly. Consider short - selling on rallies [58][59] - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices are falling, and the futures market is weak. Consider short - term short positions and a long - coke short - coking - coal arbitrage [60][64] - **Coke**: The first round of price cuts has been implemented, and there is an expectation of further cuts. Consider short - term short positions and a long - coke short - coking - coal arbitrage [65][67][68] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The USDA report is lackluster, and the domestic supply is abundant. The price is expected to be weak. Pay attention to domestic procurement trends [69][70][71] - **Pig**: Spot prices are stabilizing, and the futures market may be slightly strong. However, the overall supply pattern remains unchanged [72][73][74] - **Corn**: Supply is increasing, and the price is weak. Participate in the short - term and pay attention to shipment continuity [75][76] - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price is bearish, and the domestic price is expected to oscillate weakly. Observe the market [77][78] - **Cotton**: The international cotton price is oscillating at the bottom, and the domestic price is expected to oscillate within a range [79][80] - **Egg**: Supply is in excess, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, but the downside is limited [83] - **Oil**: Palm oil and soybean oil prices are affected by various factors and are expected to oscillate. Pay attention to Indian procurement and MPOB reports [84][85] - **Jujube**: Supply pressure exists, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to downstream sales [87] - **Apple**: The trading volume is slow, and the price is stable. Observe the market [88] Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: Supply may shrink in the medium - term, and demand is seasonally weak. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 6,600 - 7,000 yuan/ton [89][90] - **PTA**: Supply - demand is expected to be weak in the medium - term, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. Consider a short - term oscillation range of 4,500 - 4,800 yuan/ton and a TA5 - 9 low - level positive spread [91][92][93] - **Short - Fiber**: Supply - demand is expected to be weak, and processing fees are expected to be compressed. Follow the PTA strategy and consider compressing processing fees on rallies [94] - **Bottle Chip**: Supply is expected to increase in December, and demand is weak. The price is expected to follow the cost and compress processing fees. Consider a short - term strategy of compressing processing fees [96][97] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory is increasing, but domestic production cuts are increasing. It is expected to oscillate at a low level. Consider closing the EG1 - 5 reverse spread [98] - **Pure Benzene**: Supply is expected to be stable, and demand support is limited. It may follow oil prices and styrene fluctuations. Pay attention to domestic device changes [99][100] - **Styrene**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, with limited upside. It is expected to be weak in the short - term. Pay attention to device changes and actual export transactions [101][102] - **LLDPE**: The market sentiment is pessimistic. Observe the inventory and basis [103] - **PP**: Supply is expected to increase, and the 01 contract has pressure. Pay attention to PDH profit expansion [104] - **Methanol**: The basis is strong, and trading is okay. Consider reducing the 05MTO position [104] - **Caustic Soda**: Supply - demand has pressure, and prices are expected to be weak. Hold short positions [105][106] - **PVC**: Supply exceeds demand, and prices are expected to be weak at the bottom [108] - **Soda Ash**: Production is high, and supply is in excess. Hold short positions [109][110] - **Glass**: Spot prices are weakening, and the market has pressure. Treat it bearishly [110][111] - **Natural Rubber**: Pay attention to the geopolitical conflict between Thailand and Cambodia. The price is expected to oscillate [112][113] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Supply in the upstream and mid - stream is abundant, and the price is expected to face pressure. Consider short - selling on rallies [114][116]

Report Summary 1. Report Title and Date - Title: "Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Report 20251210: Range-bound after Recovery" [1] 2. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report. 3. Core Views - **Nickel**: As of December 9, 2025, the nickel market has a weak fundamental situation with inventory pressure. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are fluctuating. After the price recovered from a low level, nickel prices are expected to trade in a range. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: On December 9, 2025, the stainless - steel market has a loose fundamental situation. Although the cost side has stabilized, stainless - steel prices are expected to trade in a low - level range. The recommended trading strategy is to wait for short - selling opportunities [2]. 4. Market Data Summary Nickel Market - **Futures Prices**: On December 9, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures contracts decreased compared to the previous day. For example, the futures near - month contract closed at 116,900 yuan/ton, down 830 yuan/ton [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai nickel futures was 102,410 lots, a decrease of 22,103 lots, and the open interest was 107,986 lots, a decrease of 3,599 lots [2]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 34,500 tons, and the LME nickel inventory decreased, with registered and注销仓单 changes [2]. - **Spot Prices**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price was 119,900 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton. The prices of other nickel products also showed different trends [2]. Stainless - Steel Market - **Futures Prices**: On December 9, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel futures contracts showed different changes. The futures near - month contract closed at 12,265 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai stainless - steel futures was 69,080 lots, a decrease of 32,560 lots, and the open interest was 78,164 lots, a decrease of 7,521 lots [2]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange stainless - steel inventory was 61,556 tons, and the 300 - series stainless - steel social inventory decreased to 620,400 tons [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) was 13,200 yuan/ton, and the prices of other stainless - steel products also had some changes [2]. 5. Industry News - As of December 8, 2025, the Indonesian Forestry Task Force (Satgas PKH2) has imposed administrative fines of 38.9 trillion Indonesian rupiah on 71 palm oil and mining companies for illegal occupation of forest land. Mining companies were fined 29.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah (about $1.75 billion). Some penalized mining companies may be nickel - related, but the list is not yet released [2].

华泰证券研报表示，随着近期美联储降息预期的下修基本到位，中国表观经济数据短期走弱的迷雾逐渐 消散，出口增长保持强劲，春节前结汇高峰来临，人民币升值有望渐入佳境。维持2026年底美元兑人民 币汇率6.82的预测。虽然短期走势仍有不确定性，但这一预测隐含的路径假设是人民币临近"破7"。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 黄冰玉）12月10日，Wind数据显示，在岸人民币对美元开盘小幅上涨，报 7.0643，前一交易日16时30分收盘报7.0693。截至9时30分，离岸人民币对美元报7.06354。 同日，人民币对美元中间价7.0753，较前一日上调20个基点。 与此同时，美元指数在99关口上方震荡，截至9时30分，报99.2401。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 12 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 降息预期升温，俄乌趋于缓和 | | 铜 | 2601 | 强势 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松，矿端减产 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 期货研究报告 参考观点： ...

中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-10 美联储12月利率决议临近，关注预期差 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 有⾊观点：美联储12⽉利率决议临近，关注预期差 交易逻辑：11月欧美制造业PMI普遍回落且美国11月ADP就业数据偏弱，投 资对美联储12月降息预期升温，整体上看，宏观面预期偏正面。原料端延 续偏紧局面，并逐步往冶炼端传导，供应端收缩风险仍然存在。终端略偏 弱，11月初汽车销售增速同比转降，11-12月空调排产降幅扩大，2026年 1-2月排产预计改善，基本金属现实供需略改善，预期偏紧。整体来看， 中短期，宏观面预期正面+供应扰动担忧推高价格，但美联储12月利率决 议公布前资金出现获利回吐，可谨慎关注铜铝锡低吸做多机会；长期，国 内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有 趋紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 铜观点：美联储议息会议将近，铜价⾼位震荡。 氧化铝观点：过剩状态未有明显改善，氧化铝价继续承压。 铝观点：宏观预期反复，铝价震荡回落。 铝合⾦观点：仓单延续回升，盘⾯⾼位震荡。 锌观点：社会库存下降，锌价⾼位震荡。 铅观点：社会库存仍处低位，铅价随有⾊ ...

今年以来，白银涨幅已接近110%，远超黄金60%涨幅，导致金银比价降至70倍以下，为2021年7月以来首次。美联储降息预期、供应短缺，以及因被列 入美国"关键矿产"清单引发的囤积效应等因素，共同推升白银价格走高。 受美联储降息预期升温、全球供应紧张加剧以及被列入美国关键矿产清单等多重因素推动，白银价格周二强势突破每盎司60美元关口，创下历史新高。 今年以来，白银涨幅已接近110%，表现远超黄金和铂金。 纽约期货价格上涨4.4%，至每盎司60.97美元，盘中一度触及每盎司61.06美元的高点；现货价格上涨3.9%，至每盎司60.46美元，盘中一度触及每盎 司60.50美元。 作为对比，尽管黄金今年也上涨了60%并突破4200美元大关，但在涨幅力度上仍逊色于白银，导致 金银比价降至70倍以下，为2021年7月以来首次。 引发本轮行情的直接导火索是美联储的货币政策会议。市场普遍押注美联储将在本周三结束的会议上宣布降息25个基点。更为关键的结构性驱动力来自 于供应端的剧烈收缩。除了传统的产需缺口外，美国地质调查局上个月将白银列入"关键矿产"清单，这一举措加剧了市场对供应稳定的担忧，引发囤货 潮。 降息预期叠加供应紧张 ...