Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant growth of individual income tax (IIT) in May, which has outperformed other tax categories, indicating a potential positive trend amidst overall fiscal challenges [4][11]. Group 1: Individual Income Tax (IIT) Insights - In May, the IIT increased by 12.3% year-on-year, leading all tax categories, following a 9% increase in April [4][11]. - From January to May, IIT is the only major tax category showing positive growth at 8.2%, significantly above the annual budget target of 3.2% [4][11]. - The growth in IIT is attributed to wage increases and dividend income, with wages accounting for 65.5% and dividends for 13.3% of IIT [5][6]. Group 2: Sustainability of IIT Growth - The growth in IIT may continue due to delayed salary adjustments for civil servants and increased trading volume in dividend stocks [5][6]. - The potential release of pent-up consumption from delayed salary adjustments could sustain IIT growth into the latter half of 2024 [5][6]. Group 3: Impact on Incremental Policies - IIT's growth could offset the scale of incremental policy measures but may not change the direction of these policies [7][22]. - If IIT maintains its growth rate, it could exceed budget expectations by approximately 700 billion [7][22]. - Future incremental policies will be influenced by fiscal needs and economic demands, with key meetings scheduled for late July and August [8][9][10]. Group 4: Fiscal Data Analysis - In May, overall fiscal revenue showed a slight increase of 0.1%, with central government revenue maintaining a positive growth of 0.4% while local revenue turned negative at -0.1% [25][27]. - The manufacturing sector, particularly in computer and communication equipment, showed double-digit growth in tax revenue [27]. - Government fund income turned negative at -8.1% in May, primarily due to declining land sales revenue [41].

广发宏观周度述评（第19期） 广发宏观周度述评（第1-18期，复盘必读） 内容 第一， 三季度的增长条件。 2025年上半年，中国实际增长有效修复。"两新"、出口、服务类消费是经济的三大带动力量。前5个月设备工器具投资同比17.3%； 限额以上家电、手机零售同比分别为30.2%、27.1%；出口同比6.0%；服务零售额同比增长5.2%[1]。 三季度经济增长条件如何？ 从约束因素来看，主要有三点：（1）关税影响可能有一个滞后显现。5月出口同比初步有放缓迹象[2]，6月集装箱吞吐量[3]、EPMI出口订单也呈现类似指向 [4]；（2）房地产处于一轮小周期减速脉冲中，5月地产销售、投资降幅有所扩大，一二三线城市新建商品住宅价格指数环比均转负[5]；（3）社零单月同比5月至 6.4%的高位，反映前期积极政策效果的释放，这一增速已经不低（2020年以来年度增速最高是2023年的7.2%，之前一年负增长形成低基数；2019年实际GDP 同比6.1%，对应社零同比8.0%）。部分地区国补换档期间不排除存在月度波动。 从最新的边际变化来看，6月EPMI出现一定程度放缓。EPMI、PMI、BCI三大"软指标"年初以来的走势均 ...

Revenue Insights - National general public budget revenue for January to May 2025 was CNY 96,623 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%[2] - Tax revenue for the same period was CNY 79,156 billion, down 1.6% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 6.2% to CNY 17,467 billion[2] - In May, general public budget revenue showed a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, down from 1.9% in the previous month[3] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure reached CNY 112,953 billion from January to May 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.2%[2] - In May, general public expenditure growth slowed to 2.6%, down from 5.8% in the previous month[13] - Infrastructure-related expenditure saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.7% in May, compared to a previous increase of 2.2%[14] Fiscal Policy Analysis - The fiscal policy strength index fell for the first time in 2025, indicating a simultaneous weakening of revenue and expenditure[4] - The broad expenditure growth rate was 4% in May, a sharp decline from 12.9% previously, while broad revenue growth was -1.2%, down from 2.7%[25] - Government fund budget revenue turned negative in May, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%, primarily due to a 14.6% drop in land transfer income[20]

丨证券研究报告丨 中国经济丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 收入改善有波折，支出放缓待发力 ——5 月财政数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 1-5 月财政收支有以下特点：1）财政收入累计降幅收窄，但税收修复边际有所放缓； 2）个人所得税延续修复，地产相关税收拖累加剧；3）财政支出节奏边际放缓，基建支出降幅 走扩；4）政府性基金收入降幅走扩、支出放缓。往前看，若下半年国内外形势出现新的变化， 财政应对主要有三条：1）加速存量，重点关注用于项目建设的专项债发行是否提速；2）调整 存量，重点关注财政资金对于地产相关、促消费、保民生等领域的支持和补贴力度；3）储备增 量，包括政府债限额空间、央行利润上缴、财政结余资金、类财政工具、新增政府债额度等。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 宋筱筱 蒋佳榛 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490520080011 SAC：S0490524080005 SFC：BUX667 SFC：BVZ974 2025 年 6 月 20 日，财政部公布 2025 年 1-5 月财政数据：1-5 月，全国一般公共预算收入 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the recent US-China tariff changes on China's exports and economic growth, emphasizing the need for proactive fiscal policies to mitigate these effects and support local governments [6][8][12]. Group 1: Tariff Impact and Economic Growth - The current round of US tariffs on China is broader, faster, and higher than during the 2018 trade war, with an average tariff rate of approximately 41.2% [6][7]. - It is estimated that by 2025, China's exports to the US may decline by about 19.2%, resulting in a potential reduction of 720 billion in export scale, with overall export growth being dragged down by 1.1-2.0 percentage points [8][10]. - The high dependency of certain industries on US exports may lead to significant impacts on production investment and profits, further affecting consumer demand and employment [8][10]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy Adjustments - The total fiscal space for 2025 is projected to reach 41.6 trillion, a significant increase of 2.5 trillion from the previous year, marking the highest level in history [14][16]. - The target deficit rate for 2025 is set to exceed 4.0%, indicating a proactive fiscal stance [18][20]. - The budget revenue targets are conservative, with a growth target of only 0.1%, reflecting ongoing economic pressures [21][22]. Group 3: Budgetary and Debt Management - The budgetary expenditures are expected to grow significantly, with a combined growth rate of 9.2% for general public budgets and government fund budgets [26][28]. - Government bonds are identified as the primary source of fiscal revenue, with net financing expected to expand by nearly one-third compared to the previous year [26][28]. - The budget outside the fiscal framework is anticipated to open further, potentially reaching 7.8 trillion, which would account for 5.5% of nominal GDP [34][36]. Group 4: Local Government Financial Pressure - Local governments are facing significant financial pressures, with increasing reliance on central government transfers, which are expected to reach 11.6 trillion in 2025 [52][56]. - The overall debt burden for local governments is rising, with the debt ratio projected to reach 165.7% in 2024 [52][56]. - The article highlights the need for local governments to optimize spending and focus on essential services while managing debt repayment [57][60]. Group 5: Central Government Support - The central government is expected to increase its fiscal support, with a focus on enhancing local government capabilities and addressing debt issues [63][65]. - The issuance of special bonds and long-term bonds is set to increase, aimed at supporting investment and consumption [63][65]. - The central government's leverage capacity remains substantial compared to other major economies, allowing for further fiscal maneuvering [65][67].

美联储主席鲍威尔：贸易政策和财政政策的变动仍存在不确定性。 ...

Group 1 - The core theme of the conference is "Opening a New Chapter, Winning the Future," focusing on macroeconomic trends, the A-share market, and asset allocation [1] - The general manager of CITIC Securities, Jin Jianhua, emphasizes that China's economy is demonstrating strong resilience amid transformation challenges, with continuous optimization of the capital market ecosystem [1] - Jin Jianhua states that China is responding to external uncertainties with the certainty of high-quality development, highlighting breakthroughs in industries such as artificial intelligence and humanoid robots [1] Group 2 - Jin Jianhua asserts that the development of the capital market is essential for adapting to China's high-quality economic and social development, with a fundamental reshaping of the capital market ecosystem underway [2] - Chief economist Huang Wentao identifies five key supporting forces for market growth: technological innovation, industrial upgrading, fiscal policy, strategic space, and financial markets [2] - Huang Wentao outlines five highlights for China's economic development: new consumption trends, steady industrial upgrading, green and high-end manufacturing, significant fiscal policy space, and steady institutional opening [2] Group 3 - Huang Wentao predicts that the A-share market is likely to gradually rise due to a weak dollar trend, supportive capital market policies, and overall improvement in liquidity [2] - The expectation of foreign capital's attitude shifting towards "re-Chinaization" by 2025 indicates a consensus on increasing allocations to Chinese core assets in overseas markets [2] Group 4 - In terms of asset allocation, Huang Wentao recommends focusing on dividend assets as core holdings while actively investing in new sectors such as new consumption, humanoid robots, artificial intelligence, and innovative pharmaceuticals [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that recent growth in investment and consumer demand is a significant factor driving economic development in Germany [1] - The new German government's announced fiscal policy measures are expected to boost the economy [1]

Group 1 - The effectiveness of fiscal policy is beginning to show, but revenue is still below budget targets. The general public budget revenue for the first four months was 8.1 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -0.4%, which is lower than the previous year's growth of 1.3% and the initial budget target of 0.1% [4][5][26] - Monthly improvements in revenue are observed, with April's revenue growth turning positive at 1.9%. The revenue completion rate for the first four months was 36.7%, slightly below the average of the past five years [4][6] - Government expenditure has exceeded targets, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6% for the first four months, surpassing the budget target of 4.4%. The expenditure completion rate reached 31.5%, the highest since 2020 [6][9] Group 2 - The narrow fiscal deficit for the first four months reached 1.3 trillion yuan, marking a historical high for the same period, with a usage rate of 16.8%, significantly above the average of 12% over the past five years [13][14] - The issuance of government bonds has been accelerated, contributing to a rapid usage of the narrow deficit. The net financing of ordinary government bonds reached 1.9 trillion yuan, accounting for 39.4% of the annual central deficit target [14][18] - Special bonds have seen a slower issuance pace, with a completion rate of 37.1% for the first five months, which is higher than the previous year but lower than the levels seen in 2022 and 2023 [18][19] Group 3 - There is a potential need for incremental support, with a projected revenue gap of approximately 550 billion yuan for 2025. If revenue performance does not improve, there may be a possibility of increasing government debt quotas [3][26] - Special bonds are expected to be a focus for fiscal efforts in the second half of the year, with an anticipated increase in funds for land reserves, which could alleviate liquidity pressures for real estate companies [27][31] - New policy financial tools are expected to be implemented in the second half of the year, aimed at supporting investment in urban renewal and various infrastructure projects [33]

Fiscal Policy Progress - The general public budget expenditure target for 2025 is set at 29.7 trillion yuan, with 9.358 trillion yuan spent by April, achieving 31.5% of the annual target[1] - The deficit target for 2025 is 5.66 trillion yuan, with 1.2965 trillion yuan utilized by April, resulting in a usage progress of 22.9%[1] - Considering fund transfers and budget carryovers, the deficit usage progress stands at 16.8%[1] National Debt Issuance - The national debt balance for 2024 is 34.572 trillion yuan, with a limit of 35.2008 trillion yuan, leaving a remaining quota of 628.473 billion yuan[2] - As of June 15, the net financing amount for national debt reached 2.2001 trillion yuan, achieving 40.1% of the limit[2] - The issuance of special national bonds for 2025 is complete at 500 billion yuan, with a completion rate of 100%[2] Local Government Bonds - The balance of local government general bonds for 2024 is 16.7013 trillion yuan, with a limit of 17.2689 trillion yuan, leaving a remaining quota of 567.645 billion yuan[3] - By June 15, the net financing for local government general bonds reached 392.16 billion yuan, achieving 28.7% of the limit[3] - The completion rate for local government special bonds is 37.5%, with a remaining quota of 27.52065 trillion yuan[4]