1月26日盘中，沪金期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至1147.00元。截止发稿，沪金主力合约 报1138.70元，涨幅3.25%。 金瑞期货 后续贵金属可能仍偏强 华联期货 预计2026年上半年黄金仍保持乐观 金瑞期货：后续贵金属可能仍偏强 短期来看，特朗普最快将于本周公布美国新任美联储主席人选，可能会取代格陵兰岛事件成为市场新的 关注焦点，贝莱德高管里尔德成为下任美联储新主席的黑马人选，周末支持率一度超过前美联储理事沃 什，目前沃什预测概率仍然领先。另外，美国政府在1月底前再度关门的概率上升。中长期来看，央行 购金具有持续性，叠加全球货币的泛滥和去美元化趋势不可逆甚至加速，将继续支撑贵金属中枢上行， 后续贵金属可能仍偏强。 沪金期货主力涨超1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 华联期货：预计2026年上半年黄金仍保持乐观 美国三季度GDP增长4.4%创两年新高！11月PCE通胀符合预期，美国经济保持韧性，通胀符合预期，利 于降息，利好黄金。美联储主席被起诉，折射出美国政治动荡和2026年降息预期更强，利好黄金，继续 关注非农就业数据和美联储降息预期变化。从12月美联储议息会议 ...

Core Viewpoint - Platinum futures experienced a rapid increase, with the main contract peaking at 762.85 yuan, closing at 734.15 yuan, reflecting an 8.13% rise [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Jin Yuan Futures highlights the attention on the rebound of platinum and palladium prices due to geopolitical tensions increasing safe-haven demand and countries accelerating de-dollarization by significantly increasing gold holdings [2] - The volatility in silver has led to a 40% increase within a month, with the COMEX gold-silver ratio dropping to 48, the lowest in nearly 50 years, indicating strong performance in precious metals [2] - The current geopolitical instability is expected to keep precious metal prices strong in the short term, with platinum/gold and palladium/gold ratios still at low levels, suggesting potential for a rebound in platinum and palladium prices [2] Group 2: Demand Factors - Ruida Futures notes that platinum shows more resilience compared to palladium, especially after the EU postponed the internal combustion engine ban and strengthened automotive emissions standards, leading to increased platinum loading intensity [2] - The automotive catalyst's demand for platinum is expected to add approximately 450,000 ounces this year, despite a mild adjustment in global passenger car sales due to recession concerns [2] - The rise in penetration rates for hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium to long-term demand curve for platinum, supported by the IEA's latest hydrogen outlook predicting a cumulative installation of PEM electrolyzers to exceed 17 GW by 2030 [2] Group 3: Supply and Price Dynamics - The uncertainty surrounding South African power supply and Russian exports, combined with new automotive emission policies, is expected to make platinum more resilient compared to palladium [2] - The differentiated supply-demand dynamics may continue to drive a "strong platinum, weak palladium" market trend [2] - Price levels to watch include resistance at $2,900/oz for platinum and support at $2,700/oz, while palladium has resistance at $2,100/oz and support at $1,900/oz [2]

转自：新华财经 国投期货：警惕资金阶段性获利了结带来的波动 国贸期货：短期警惕贵金属获利了结风险 中长期贵金属价格中枢将继续上移 华泰期货研报观点认为，上周贵金属黄金白银价格再创历史新高，地缘冲突的显著升温成为周内贵金属 价格飙涨的主线。地缘冲突的烈度加剧或将强化贵金属作为首选避险非美资产的吸引力。目前白银价格 表现强劲，现货白银站上100美元／盎司整数关口。不过由于白银本身波动相对较大，因此操作上虽然 仍可继续逢低买入套保，但对于仓位的控制以及止损的严格执行需要更多关注，整体看不宜继续追高。 新加坡星展银行财富管理部首席市场策略师科林·切申斯基表示，预计本周金价的走势或较为中性，但 推动金价近年来上涨数千美元的中长期因素将继续发挥作用。他具体指出，仍然存在的和潜在存在的地 缘局势紧张推动金价持续上涨，但支撑金价上涨的最大动力可能仍然是美元的持续走弱。切申斯基补充 说，无论是出于地缘政治杠杆还是债务可持续性的考虑，美国国债的增量出售很可能正在推动美元走 弱，而其中部分资金则流入了黄金市场。 盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管奥勒·汉森（Ole Hansen）表示，尽管贵金属市场出现"错失恐惧症"引发的购 买，但将本轮涨 ...

从高频数据来看，2026 年春节位于 2 月中旬，1 月是春节前的最 后一个完整生产月，为了保持供应平稳，1 月生产或小幅回升，外需 或存在提前发货，1 月出口亦有望保持韧性，关注中国与欧盟、一带 一路沿线国家合作加深。生意社 BPI 代表的广谱价格指数环比延续上 行，除了全球定价商品之外，亦包括国内定价的煤炭、螺纹、化工品 等，年后 3 月开工季的价格趋势值得期待。值得注意的是，12 月 PMI 建筑业景气度较为明显改善，但 1 月高频数据显示，建筑业实物工作 量并未显著启动，100 大中城市拿地意愿相对较弱，30 大中城市商品 房销售景气度较低，或掣肘投资，需要密切跟踪节后复工复产情况， 这或对投资止跌回稳产生显著影响。 证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2026-01-26 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《内外需增长斜率分化，关注出口和 科技共振方向》 - 2026.1.22 宏观研 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry | Asset Category | Rating | | --- | --- | | Gold | Oscillation | | US Dollar | Bearish | | US Stocks | Oscillation | | A-Shares | Oscillation | | Treasury Bonds | Oscillation | [28] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets face high geopolitical risks, with persistent concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the fiscal sustainability of developed economies. The risk aversion sentiment remains high, and the market is expected to maintain high volatility. The US and Japan's potential joint intervention in the foreign exchange market increases the downward pressure on the US dollar index, while the yen appreciates significantly [5]. - In the domestic market, although most of the economic data in December were below market expectations, the annual economic growth rate reached the 5% target. Policies such as investment and national subsidies at the beginning of the year are taking effect, and some domestic demand - related data have the potential for marginal improvement. The bond market remains under bearish pressure, while the stock market continues its slow - bull pattern but faces regulatory cooling in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Context Tracking - Geopolitical risks continue to ferment, including the sovereignty dispute over Greenland and concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve. The expansionary fiscal policy expectations in Japan challenge the country's fiscal discipline, leading to a rise in global sovereign bond yields [5]. - In the domestic market, the economic data in December were mostly disappointing, but the full - year economic growth target was achieved. Policies are being implemented, and there is potential for marginal improvement in domestic demand - related data [5]. 3.2 Global Overview of Major Asset Trends 3.2.1 Equity Market - Global stock markets fluctuated and adjusted this week, with mixed performance. In developed countries, the S&P 500 fell 0.35%, the German DAX fell 1.57%, and the Nikkei 225 fell 0.17%, while the South Korean KOSPI rose 3.08%. In emerging markets, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.84%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.36%, and the Brazilian IBOVESPA rose 8.53% [7][8]. - The performance of MSCI indices was differentiated, with emerging markets > frontier markets > global markets > developed markets [8]. 3.2.2 Currency Market - The US dollar index weakened rapidly, depreciating 1.88% to 97.5. The RMB exchange - rate index appreciated slightly, and the RMB against the US dollar continued to appreciate 0.07%. Most emerging - market currencies and developed - market currencies appreciated, such as the Mexican peso (1.44%), the Brazilian real (1.49%), the euro (1.95%), and the yen (1.49%) [9][10]. 3.2.3 Bond Market - The yields of ten - year government bonds in major developed countries rose significantly, mainly due to concerns about Japan's radical fiscal policy. The yield of US Treasury bonds remained unchanged at 4.24%, the yield of UK Treasury bonds rose 7bp, and the yield of Japanese Treasury bonds rose 6bp. In emerging - market countries, the yield of Chinese Treasury bonds fell 1bp to 1.83%, the yield of Indian Treasury bonds fell 1bp, and the yield of Brazilian Treasury bonds fell 12bp [15][16]. 3.2.4 Commodity Market - The global commodity market oscillated and rose this week, with energy and precious - metal prices leading the increase. WTI crude oil rose 3.48%, natural gas rose 17%, COMEX gold rose 8.3%, and silver rose 14.8%. In the domestic commodity market, most commodities rose, with precious metals > non - ferrous metals > energy and chemicals > industrial products > agricultural products > black metals [22][26]. 3.3 Weekly Outlook for Major Assets 3.3.1 Precious Metals - Gold is expected to oscillate. Geopolitical tensions drive funds into precious metals, but after a rapid rise, gold price volatility is expected to increase. It is recommended to wait for a pullback before making long - positions [28][30]. - The speculative net long - positions in Comex gold futures rebounded slightly, the holdings of SPDR Gold ETF increased slightly to 1,086 tons, and the positions of Shanghai gold futures rose to around 360,000 lots. The silver price showed a frothy trend, and attention should be paid to the risk of a market reversal [40]. 3.3.2 Foreign Exchange - The US dollar is bearish. Geopolitical risks are rising, and the process of de - dollarization is accelerating, leading to a short - term weakness in the US dollar [28][41]. 3.3.3 US Stocks - US stocks are expected to oscillate. Geopolitical conflicts still have the risk of fermentation. With the approaching of the January FOMC meeting and the earnings season of technology giants, market sentiment is expected to remain cautious, and the volatility of the US stock market may further increase [28][44]. 3.3.4 A - Shares - A - shares are expected to oscillate. The domestic stock market continues to face a pattern of differentiation. The core contradiction is between the bottom - up bull - market expectations and the top - down regulatory cooling. The regulatory authorities may take more strict and precise measures to limit excessive speculation, and the market may continue to oscillate at a high level [28][58]. 3.3.5 Treasury Bonds - Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate. The bond - market rebound may not be over, but the long - term bearish logic remains unchanged. The net financing of government bonds will decrease next week, and the market news will be calm, but risks such as an unexpected increase in the manufacturing PMI still need to be vigilant [28][61]. 3.4 Global Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.4.1 Overseas High - Frequency Economic Data - The US economy remains resilient, with the GDPNow model estimating a Q4 growth rate of 5.4% and the red - book retail sales growing 5.5% year - on - year. The employment market also remains stable, with the number of continued unemployment claims falling to 1.849 million and the number of initial claims remaining at 200,000 [77]. - The liquidity in the US banking - system is expected to improve, the credit spread of high - yield corporate bonds is oscillating and falling, and the market's expectation of interest - rate cuts has changed little. The probability of a pause in interest - rate cuts in January has risen to 95.6%, and it is expected that there will be only 1 - 2 interest - rate cuts in 2026, more likely in the second half of the year [84]. - In December, the US CPI increased 2.7% year - on - year as expected, and the core CPI increased 2.6% year - on - year, the lowest level since March 2021 and lower than expected. The PPI rebounded to 3% in November, mainly driven by energy prices, and the core PCE increased 2.8% year - on - year in November, in line with market expectations [87]. 3.4.2 Domestic High - Frequency Economic Data - The real - estate market remains weak, with only a seasonal rebound in second - hand housing transactions. The market is still waiting and seeing, and the follow - up of new policies in Shanghai and Shenzhen is slow [93]. - As of January 23, the R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.54%, 1.49%, 1.40%, and 1.49% respectively, with slight changes from the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase this week was 8.57 trillion yuan, slightly less than last week, and the overnight trading volume accounted for 90.49%, slightly higher than the previous week [96]. - In December, the economic data showed a pattern of overall weakness, with supply stronger than demand and domestic demand weaker than external demand. The growth rate of industrial added value, exports, and service production increased, while the growth rate of social retail sales, fixed - asset investment, and real - estate investment decreased [97]. - In December, the financial data showed that the private sector, especially the household sector, had a low willingness to borrow actively. However, there were also some positive changes, such as an increase in short - term and medium - long - term loans of the enterprise sector, an increase in the issuance scale of enterprise bonds, and a slight increase in entrusted loans [102]. - In December, the PPI increased - 1.9% year - on - year, and the CPI increased 0.80% year - on - year, both showing a recovery trend. In the future, inflation is expected to continue to rise due to policy support and rising commodity prices [109]. - In December, the year - on - year growth rates of exports and imports exceeded expectations, with exports growing 6.6% and imports growing 5.7%. In the future, exports are expected to maintain their resilience, and imports are expected to recover moderately [115].

作者：刘庭宇 永赢基金基金经理 2、联储独立性弱化+美国债务上行+欧洲多国卖美债买黄金，去美元化支撑黄金配置需求 美国2026年将加大在福利、基建与国防等领域的财政支出，同时日本和欧洲的财政赤字压力同样在增 加。随着美联储独立性弱化、内部政策分歧持续加剧，叠加赤字率上行不断侵蚀美元和美债信用，全球 "去美元化" 趋势持续深化，丹麦、波兰、瑞典等欧洲国家计划或正在抛售美债。新兴市场央行的黄金 储备占比显著低于全球平均水平，各市场参与方都有更强动力持续增加黄金资产配置，配置需求推动下 或将持续抬升黄金和黄金股的价格中枢。 3、黄金股三季报业绩整体符合预期，2026年戴维斯双击或将继续 中证沪深港黄金股指数前十大成分股 2025 年前三季度业绩继续保持 62% 的高增速，整体符合市场预 期，同时龙头金矿公司披露高增速年报业绩预告引发市场关注。这一高增态势得益于金价中枢上行，叠 加金矿公司积极扩产带来的量价齐升，且这一逻辑后续有望持续兑现。截至12月31日，若按照4200美 元/盎司的金价进行测算，主要金矿公司2026年的平均PE仅10~15倍，而历史上金矿公司估值中枢约20 倍，当前仍具备显著的估值修复空间。越来越 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by high international gold prices and strong performance from leading companies, making it a focal point for investors in 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector has outperformed other sectors, with the MSCI Metals and Mining Index rising nearly 90% since the beginning of 2025, surpassing semiconductor and global banking sectors [2]. - Major companies in the sector, such as Zijin Mining, are expected to report substantial profit increases, with projected net profits for 2025 reaching between 51 billion to 52 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 59% to 62% [2]. Group 2: Fund Inflows and ETF Growth - There has been a remarkable influx of capital into the non-ferrous metal sector, with over 36 billion yuan net inflow into non-gold themed ETFs as of January 22, 2026, pushing the total scale of these ETFs to over 100 billion yuan [3]. - The non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) reached a scale of 40 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest and positioning in this sector [3]. - Public funds have significantly increased their holdings in the non-ferrous sector, with 15 related fund products reported in a short span from early December 2025 to mid-January 2026, indicating a robust investment trend [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The non-ferrous metal sector is transitioning from traditional cyclical characteristics to a new phase characterized by a combination of safe-haven demand, strategic security, and tight supply-demand balance due to rising geopolitical risks [4]. - The recent surge in gold prices, surpassing 5,000 USD per ounce, and silver prices exceeding 100 USD per ounce, reflects a shift in the global monetary system and increased demand for these metals as safe-haven assets [4][5]. Group 4: Specific Metal Insights - Gold and silver are experiencing a "super cycle" driven by geopolitical conflicts, loss of confidence in the US dollar, and ongoing central bank purchases, making them attractive for investment [5]. - Copper prices are showing resilience due to strong pre-holiday stocking, with supply constraints emerging as copper concentrate treatment charges have dropped to negative values, indicating a tight supply situation [6]. - Aluminum prices are expected to rebound due to low global inventories and strong demand driven by investments in power grids and solar exports, despite slight domestic inventory increases [7]. - The strategic importance of metals like cobalt and lithium is being reaffirmed, with supply concentrated in regions like the Democratic Republic of Congo, highlighting their long-term investment potential [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan exchange rate indices have all declined in the week of January 23, with the CFETS index at 98.24, down 0.55% week-on-week, indicating a weakening trend in the yuan's value against a basket of currencies [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Indices - The CFETS yuan exchange rate index reported at 98.24, reflecting a weekly decline of 0.55% [1][2]. - The BIS currency basket yuan exchange rate index stood at 105.31, down 0.4% week-on-week [1][2]. - The SDR currency basket yuan exchange rate index was at 93.29, with a weekly decrease of 0.27% [1][2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The US market experienced a "triple hit" of stocks, bonds, and currency declines, leading to a lower dollar index at 97.46, with a cumulative drop of over 1.8% for the week [5]. - Non-US currencies strengthened against the dollar, with the euro, pound, and Australian dollar showing significant gains, while the New Zealand dollar and Norwegian krone led the increases [5]. - The onshore yuan appreciated by 60 basis points, closing at 7.1221 against the dollar, while the offshore yuan rose by 187.5 basis points, closing at 6.94865 [5]. Group 3: Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that the weakening of the dollar, influenced by external factors such as tariff risks, has contributed to the appreciation of non-US currencies, including the yuan [6]. - Seasonal factors and market expectations for yuan appreciation are stabilizing the settlement intentions of market participants, supporting the yuan's strength [6]. - Short-term forecasts indicate potential reversals in "de-dollarization" trading, while long-term risks from US policies may undermine the dollar's reserve status [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term expectations suggest that the yuan will remain strong due to continued corporate settlement demands ahead of the Chinese New Year [7]. - Long-term projections indicate a weaker dollar, which may affect its dominant position and enhance the roles of other currencies like the yuan and euro in the international monetary system [7]. - The ongoing global uncertainties, such as trade tensions and supply chain disruptions, suggest that the yuan should not appreciate too quickly [8].

如果有人告诉你，养老基金居然成了"美债收割机"，你会不会觉得自己听错了？ 2024年，欧洲的金融圈着实被这波操作整得措手不及。 丹麦AkademikerPension养老基金直接官宣：2025年1月底前，把账上那1亿美元的美债全卖了，干净利落，毫不拖泥带水。 紧接着，瑞典最大养老基金Alecta也扔出同样的"清仓令"。 这不是一时冲动，而是对美国信用风险和地缘局势的高度警觉。 更让人咂舌的是，专家们还特地出来"背书"：这股风潮可能只是刚刚开始。 其实，北欧的"断舍离"并不是孤例。 荷兰ABP养老基金早在2023年9月就宣布减少美债配置，转而加大可再生能源投资，直接把资金从大洋彼岸拉回到欧洲本地。 ABP高层玛丽亚·范德霍夫曾一针见血地说："美国财政政策像过山车，我们实在坐不住！"德国、比利时等地的养老基金也立马跟风，大家在金融圈的小道 消息里议论得沸沸扬扬。 欧洲的金融大佬们都在问：美元的"安全感"还剩多少？ 如果你以为只有欧洲在"撤退"，那就太天真了。 中国央行这些年也在悄悄调整外汇储备结构，美债持仓逐步减少，黄金储备却节节攀升。 美欧之间的龃龉也愈发公开，尤其是在格陵兰岛问题上，特朗普又"复读机"一样抛出 ...

2012 31 2026-01-26 F3014717 Z0013223 01 PART ONE 主要观点 | 影响因素 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 本周国内大宗商品再度上涨，工业品、农产品双双走高。主要原因，一是地缘风险升温，去美元化加速，黄金白银双双大幅飙涨，带动有色板块纷纷走升；二是， | | | 反内卷预期再度升温，新能源金属板块再度大涨；三是，寒潮来临，能源价格大幅走高，推动能化板块反弹。 | | 海外 | 1）美国12月成屋签约销售指数环比大跌9.3%至71.8，同比下跌1.3%，不仅显著低于预期的下跌0.3%，更创下2020年4月疫情以来最大降幅，同时也是2001年有 | | | 数据记录以来12月同期最大跌幅。一方面，库存不足问题持续凸显，可售房源难以恢复至疫情前水平，制约市场交易活力；另一方面，受日本债市下跌及地缘政 | | | 治紧张影响，美国国债收益率已升至数月高位，而国债走势直接关联房贷成本，未来房贷利率上行风险将进一步抑制购房需求。2）特朗普透露美联储新主席候选 | | | 人已缩减至两位，其心中或仅剩一位，未披露具体人选，仅称贝莱德高管Rick Ri ...