2025年12月8日，国际金价站上4196美元/盎司，国内金价逼近千元关口。 这种剧烈波动反映了市场对多重因素的重新定价过程。 推动金价上涨的核心动力首先来自全球央行的持续性购金行为。 这场"黄金狂飙"背后，是年内超50%的涨幅、20多次历史新高的纪录，以及全球央行持续购金、美联储降息预期与地缘风险交织的复杂图景。 然而高位金价已让普通消费者望而却步——金饰需求同比下降19%，回收金供应却增加6%。 当前市场正陷入多空拉锯战：多头坚信降息周期与"去美元化"趋势将推高金价，空方则警告美国经济韧性可能逆转宽松预期。 面对震荡行情，投资者需清醒认识到：黄金的定价逻辑已发生根本性变革，央行购金取代实际利率成为新锚点，而这一变化将深刻影响未来走势。 2025年12月8日的黄金市场数据显示，伦敦现货黄金报价4196.03美元/盎司，较前一日下跌12.57美元，跌幅0.30%。 国内市场方面，上海黄金交易所主力合约AU99.99报953.0元/克，投资金条价格在966-976元/克区间波动。 品牌金店首饰金价格呈现明显分化：周大福、老凤祥等高端品牌价格达到1328元/克，而菜百首饰等性价比品牌价格为1292元/克。 黄金回 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a low volatility increase with an average trading volume of 1,696.2 billion CNY, a decrease of 40.7 billion CNY week-on-week[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.26% and the ChiNext Index by 1.86%[2] - The PMI for November rebounded by 0.2 percentage points, aligning with seasonal trends but still significantly lower than expected[2] Fixed Income - The bond market saw an overall increase in yields, with the 30-year government bond yield rising significantly[2] - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation totaling 663.8 billion CNY, with a net withdrawal of 848 billion CNY[2] - The market anticipates a cautious monetary policy outlook, limiting bullish sentiment in the bond market[2] Overseas Market Dynamics - U.S. stock markets rose, with the Dow Jones up by 0.5% and the S&P 500 by 0.31%[2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased to 4.14%, while the 2-year yield rose by 12 basis points to 3.56%[2] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.46%, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the dollar[2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. ADP employment report showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs in November, significantly below the expected increase of 10,000[2] - The core PCE index for September fell to 2.8%, below the expected 2.9%, indicating weaker inflation pressures[2] - Michigan University's one-year inflation expectation dropped from 4.5% to 4.1%, boosting market risk appetite[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include weaker-than-expected economic fundamentals and the possibility that the Federal Reserve's rate cuts may not meet market expectations[2]

Company News - Berkshire Hathaway announced multiple personnel changes, including a new Chief Financial Officer [1] - OpenAI reported that ChatGPT currently serves over 800 million users weekly [1] - NextEra Energy will collaborate with Google Cloud to establish multiple data center campuses in the United States [1] Market Dynamics - Nvidia's stock rose 0.12% in pre-market trading, while Baidu's stock increased by over 3% [1]

研 究 院 货 金 融 宏观利好不断，铜价继续上行 张天骜 南京大学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 弘 业 期 弘 业 期 货 金 融 研 究 院 周五美国核心PCE物价指数低于预期，美联储降息预期继续强化。今日中央政治局会议信息发布，预计很快召开年 度经济工作会议，同时11月中国出口数据明显超预期。午后市场情绪受到较大带动，有色金属全线拉升。日内美元下跌， 有色金属延续强势，全线上涨。铜价直线拉升大涨，再创历史新高。沪铜上涨，伦铜上涨，国内现货铜上涨。 数据上看，今日沪铜收盘报92970，现货报92270，沪铜午后拉升大涨，现货较期货贴水-700点。今日现货基差升水 上升至130点，现货成交不佳。LME现货升水下降至23美元，外盘现货需求较好。本周美铜库存继续大幅上升创新高，伦 铜库存上升，沪铜库存下降，现货需求一般。本周人民币汇率稳定，洋山铜溢价上升至41美元，国内现货需求好转。铜 价伦沪比上升至7.99，国际铜较沪铜升水大幅上升至1182点，外盘比价大幅高于内盘，市场乐观。 今日伦铜高位小幅上涨再创历史新高，在11727美元附近运行。沪 ...

新华财经北京12月8日电上周（12月1日至5日当周），国际金价高位盘整。当周金价开盘于每盎司 4223.10美元，最高4264.56美元，最低4163.46美元，收盘报4198.23美元，全周波幅101.10美元，周度下 跌24.87美元，跌幅0.59%。 当周金价K线呈现小阴十字星形态，显示黄金市场仍处于高位震荡阶段，趋势性突破动能不足，投资者 静待本周美联储货币政策会议提供清晰指引。 基本面缺少指引 从上周影响黄金市场的基本面来看，一方面，俄乌局势仍存在缓和的预期，另一方面，美联储官员进入 缄默期，市场暂时难从官员讲话中寻觅有关降息前景的信息。这使得黄金市场整体表现平静，没有明显 的方向性趋势。 具体来看，近期地缘政治局势整体呈现缓和预期与局部冲突风险并存的局面。美国透露与俄罗斯进行 了"建设性讨论"，市场对俄乌冲突缓和的预期升温，削弱了黄金的部分避险吸引力。然而，前线交火并 未停止，和平前景仍存变数，这种情况的存在，限制了金价的下跌空间。此外，委内瑞拉局势、阿富汗 与巴基斯坦边境冲突等地缘风险事件将继续维持全球地缘政治局势的不确定性底色。 货币政策方面，美联储进入议息会议前的"缄默期"，官员停止公开发表 ...

12月8日，上周五我们认为，尽管黄金走势冲高遇阻，但是市场对美联储12月降息的预期，支撑金价继 续保持高位震荡，另外短期技术面显示，黄金有结束调整继续反弹的可能，因此操作上建议大家，下方 支撑关注4185美元，若失守这里继续关注4140美元，上方压力关注4230美元附近的突破情况，向上突破 继续关注4265美元。 从之后的走势看，上周五欧盘盘中，黄金反弹至4230美元遇阻后，小幅回落继续向上试探，直到美盘开 盘后，黄金延续亚盘反弹走势，向上突破4230美元附近的短期关键压制，刷新日高至4259美元，遇阻后 黄金短线急跌，失守4230美元后迅速跳水至4198美元企稳，反弹4220美元遇阻后，金价震荡回落，收盘 前跌至4192美元企稳；本周一开盘，黄金震荡回升，涨至4218美元遇阻，目前交投于4215美元附近。总 体来看，黄金突破4230美元压力后，试探4265美元附近压力遇阻，基本符合我们的预期，金价冲高回 落，继续保持震荡走势。 Wolfinance星级分析师认为，尽管上周五黄金冲高回落，但金价保持了11月至今的反弹趋势，主要有三 个因素，支撑了黄金再度上涨，具体来看：其一是美联储的降息预期得到强化，12月降 ...

| 国投诉货 | | | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月08日 | | 黄金 | 女女女 白银 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | 文文文 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属震荡。 上周美国经济数据喜忧参半， 11月ISM制造业PMI48.2连续第九个月处于收缩区间， 11月 ADP就业人数减少3.2万人为2023年3月以来最低水平，不过周度初请失业金人数降至19.1万人创2022年9月以 来新低，缓解劳动力市场急剧恶化担忧。周五发布的推迟数据9月核心PCE物价指数年率回落0.1个百分点至 2.8%，创三个月低位,通胀压力有限。利率市场隐含降息概率波动不大维持在80%之上, ...

投资咨询系列报告 更新时间：2025年12月08日16时14分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位分化，沪金主力收涨0.15%，沪银主力收涨2.06%，铂金主力收涨0.66%，钯金主力收涨涨1.07%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期仍存。②避险属性方面，普京会见特朗普 特使和库什纳，讨论结束乌克兰战争的可能途径。中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币属性方面，美联 储理事沃勒和纽约联储威廉姆斯讲话共同提高美联储降息可能性。美联储褐皮书显示，美国经济活动变化不大，但政府停摆令多地 需求受抑。美国9月消费者支出温和增长，通胀创近一年半最快增速。美国上周初请失业金人数意外减少2.7万人至19.1万人，为 2022年9月以来的最低水平。美国政府结束停摆，市场等待更多经济数据指引。目前市场预期美联储12月降息25基点概率暴涨至 80%以上。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币升值利空内价格。需求端氢能产业 被列为战略新兴产业，对铂基催化剂的需求形成长期强劲预期。钯金长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。⑤预 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report As of December 8, 2025, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Some commodities like live pigs, low-sulfur fuel oil, and Shanghai silver rose over 2%, while others such as coking coal and coke declined significantly. Different commodities have different market trends and influencing factors, with some showing short - term risks and others having long - term upward potential [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - As of the close on December 8, domestic futures main contracts had mixed results. Live pigs, low - sulfur fuel oil, and Shanghai silver rose over 2%, while coking coal fell over 6% and coke fell over 5%. In the stock index futures, the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM all rose, and in the bond futures, the performance varied [5][6]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Copper**: The CSPT announced a joint production cut of over 10% in 2026. The price of Shanghai copper has been rising due to factors such as the increase in LME cancelled warrants, the anti - internal competition in the domestic copper industry, and the expected Fed rate cut. The supply is tight, and the downstream has some resilience. However, the downstream's ability to accept the price is insufficient after continuous price increases, so short - term small corrections should be watched out, and it is bullish in the long - term [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Although CATL did not resume production as scheduled on December 5, the upstream production capacity is increasing. The production in November continued to rise, but the growth rate slowed down in December. The downstream demand has slowed down and is differentiated. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [10]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ agreed to maintain the overall oil production in 2026. The end of the consumption peak season, concerns about demand, and continuous production increase have led to an oversupply situation. However, due to factors such as the difficulty of reaching a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine and the Fed's expected rate cut, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level [11][13]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is decreasing, and the downstream demand is general. The price of crude oil is oscillating at a low level. The start - up rate of asphalt will increase slightly, but the demand will weaken further. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate weakly [14]. - **PP**: The downstream start - up rate is at a low level, and the supply is increasing. The demand is in the off - season, and the overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [15][16]. - **Plastic**: The start - up rate has increased slightly, but the downstream demand is weakening. The supply is increasing, and the overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17]. - **PVC**: The start - up rate has decreased slightly, the downstream demand is poor, and the inventory is high. Although there are some policy boosts, it is expected to oscillate weakly [19]. - **Coking Coal**: The price dropped by over 6%. The supply is under pressure from imported coal, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory transfer is difficult, and it is expected to remain weak in the short - term [20][21]. - **Urea**: The price dropped on Monday. The supply pressure is relieved due to the shutdown of gas - fired devices, and the demand for winter storage and other aspects still exists. It is difficult for the price to drop significantly, and caution is needed in trading [22].

截至收盘，创业板成长指数上涨3.2%，创业板指数上涨2.6%，创业板中盘200指数上涨1.7%，创业板ETF（159915）全天成交额超40亿元。Wind数据显示， 该产品最新规模近1000亿元，位居同类产品第一。 有分析称，展望短期未来，市场对美联储降息预期较高，且市场近两日表现也说明在前期情绪释放后，市场对日本加息等其它流动性利空消息相对钝化，创 业板在整体市场震荡环境下有望体现更好的回补弹性。在技术面上，前两日的下影阳线叠加今日的放量上涨，可同时关注创业板长期配置价值和短期交易节 奏。 每日经济新闻 ...