Domestic Gold Market - The overall gold prices in domestic brand stores remained stable compared to last Friday, with Chow Sang Sang experiencing a two-day price increase, reaching 1012 CNY per gram, the highest among gold stores [1] - Shanghai China Gold quoted the lowest price at 969 CNY per gram, resulting in a price difference of 43 CNY per gram between the highest and lowest priced stores [1] - The latest gold prices from various brands are as follows: Lao Miao 1004 CNY, Liu Fu 1008 CNY, Chow Tai Fook 1008 CNY, and others, with no significant changes except for Chow Sang Sang [1] Platinum Prices - Platinum prices rebounded after a significant drop on Saturday, with Chow Sang Sang's platinum jewelry price increasing by 3 CNY to 581 CNY per gram [1] Gold Recycling Prices - The gold recycling price saw a slight increase of 3.3 CNY per gram, with significant price differences among brands: the average recycling price is 765.20 CNY per gram, while Lao Feng Xiang offers the highest at 778.20 CNY [2] International Gold Market - Last Friday, spot gold prices rose, peaking at 3361.05 USD per ounce before closing at 3349.42 USD, marking a 0.31% increase [4] - As of the latest update, spot gold is trading at 3367.69 USD per ounce, reflecting a 0.55% increase [4] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to increased demand for safe-haven assets due to U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine [4] - Concerns over the expanding U.S. debt and potential tariff escalations are expected to continue driving the gold market [4] - Recent U.S. inflation expectations and consumer confidence data have influenced market sentiment, with inflation expectations dropping to 4.4% from a previous 5.0% [4]

货币政策预期分化加剧 美国关税政策的不确定性持续影响着全球金融市场。特朗普政府陆续宣布对多个国家和地区征收20%至50%的关税，涉及欧盟、墨西哥、日本、韩国等主要 贸易伙伴。这些关税措施的实施时间从原定的7月9日推迟至8月1日，为各方谈判争取了额外时间。 欧盟方面对美国的关税威胁表示强烈反对，丹麦外交大臣拉斯穆森称这些威胁"绝对不可接受"。与此同时，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩直言"不可能达成协 议"，显示出双方在贸易问题上的分歧依然巨大。这种贸易紧张局势的升级直接推动了避险需求的增长。 美国单月关税收入同比暴增301%至270亿美元，本财年首次突破千亿美元大关。这一数据反映出关税政策对全球贸易格局的深刻影响。各国被迫采取反制措 施，全球贸易链面临前所未有的压力。 在全球贸易摩擦持续升温的背景下，黄金价格表现出微幅上涨态势。近期金价突破3350美元关口，显示出避险资产在不确定性环境中的韧性。关税政策的反 复变化成为影响贵金属走势的关键因素，市场参与者密切关注各国贸易谈判进展。 关税政策扰动市场情绪 美联储货币政策走向的不确定性为黄金价格提供了额外支撑。美联储主席鲍威尔在参议院听证会上警告，关税可能导致物价一次性上涨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market will maintain a short - term tug - of - war, with the core contradiction being the game between the inflation rhythm pushed up by tariffs and the Fed's policy expectations. Trump's tariff increases have initially raised business costs. If the tariff scope expands or the August 1 negotiation fails, it may accelerate inflation and boost gold. However, the US economic resilience shown in June CPI and retail data may make the Fed maintain a wait - and - see attitude, limiting the upside of gold prices. The market focuses on the September rate - cut expectation, but if real interest rates do not fall as expected, gold prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term. The long - term support for gold remains valid [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: At the beginning of the week, Trump's 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico spurred safe - haven buying, but the market's expectation of negotiation easing diluted the increase. US June CPI core commodity inflation showed an initial rise, but overall CPI was lower than expected. The stagnant PPI growth in June led to a mid - week rebound. Near the weekend, strong retail sales boosted the dollar and suppressed gold, but Trump's 25% tariff on Japan reignited safe - haven demand. Gold prices remained high - level volatile. Central bank gold purchases and ETF inflows provided long - term support, while CFTC speculative net - long position reduction indicated short - term profit - taking pressure. Silver was relatively firm due to strong semiconductor demand but limited by weakening photovoltaic demand [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The precious metals market will remain in a short - term tug - of - war. If tariffs expand or the negotiation fails, it may accelerate inflation and boost gold. However, the US economic resilience may make the Fed wait and see, limiting gold's upside. The market focuses on the September rate - cut, but if real interest rates do not fall, gold may continue to fluctuate. Long - term support for gold remains valid [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: In the short term, pay attention to the correction risk. For the next week, the SHFE gold 2510 contract is expected to trade between 750 - 800 yuan/gram, the SHFE silver 2510 contract between 9000 - 9300 yuan/kg. For overseas markets, COMEX gold futures are expected to trade between 3300 - 3400 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver futures between 38 - 39 US dollars/ounce [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movement**: Gold prices continued to fluctuate and ended the week higher, silver prices rose. There was a divergence between domestic and overseas markets. As of July 18, 2025, COMEX silver was at 38.555 US dollars/ounce, down 1.03% week - on - week; SHFE silver 2510 contract was at 9273 yuan/kg, up 2.84% week - on - week. COMEX gold was at 3344.2 US dollars/ounce, down 0.59% week - on - week; SHFE gold 2510 contract was at 777.02 yuan/gram, up 0.49% week - on - week [11]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of July 17, 2025, the SLV silver ETF holdings were 14695 tons, down 1.3% week - on - week; the SPDR gold ETF holdings were 948.50 tons, basically unchanged from the previous week [15]. - **COMEX Net Positions**: As of July 8, 2025, COMEX gold total positions were 443144 contracts, up 1.25% week - on - week, and net positions were 202968 contracts, up 0.49% week - on - week. COMEX silver total positions were 162803 contracts, down 0.47% week - on - week, and net positions were 58521 contracts, down 7.70% week - on - week [21]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of July 8, 2025, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 261685 contracts, up 1.2% week - on - week, and non - commercial short positions were 58717 contracts, up 3.6% week - on - week [27]. - **Basis**: As of July 17, 2025, the gold basis was - 5.36 yuan/gram, down 25.82% week - on - week; the silver basis was - 43 yuan/kg, down 258.33% week - on - week [30]. - **Inventory**: As of July 17, 2025, COMEX gold inventory was 37143884.29 ounces, up 0.99% week - on - week; SHFE gold inventory was 24585 kg, up 14.58% week - on - week. COMEX silver inventory was 496635874 ounces, down 0.30% week - on - week; SHFE silver inventory was 1303593 kg, down 2.70% week - on - week [35]. 3.3 Industrial Supply and Demand - **Silver Industry**: As of May 2025, Chinese silver imports decreased by 2.46% month - on - month to 273741.39 kg, while silver ore imports increased by 10.54% month - on - month to 136237148 kg. As of June 2025, due to soaring semiconductor silver demand, integrated circuit production increased by 15.80% year - on - year to 4506000 pieces [41][45]. - **Silver Supply and Demand**: In 2024, silver industrial demand was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; coin and net bar demand was 190.9 million ounces, down 22% year - on - year; silver ETF net investment demand was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the previous year; total silver demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year. Total silver supply was 1015.1 million ounces, up 2% year - on - year, and the supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% year - on - year [51][55]. - **Gold Industry**: Gold prices were mainly volatile. As of July 17, 2025, the China Gold recycling price was 769.9 yuan/gram, down 0.21% week - on - week. The gold prices of Laofengxiang, Chow Tai Fook, and Saturday Fu were basically stable [59]. - **Gold Supply and Demand**: In the first quarter of 2025, gold industrial (technology) demand was 7396.6 ounces, gold investment demand was 50741 ounces, up 71.93% quarter - on - quarter; gold jewelry demand was 39899.9 ounces, down 10.47% quarter - on - quarter; total gold demand was 120440.4 ounces, up 7.12% quarter - on - quarter [65]. 3.4 Macroeconomic and Options - **Macroeconomic Data**: This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield continued to rebound due to strong CPI inflation and retail data. The 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread widened, the CBOE gold volatility increased, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio declined slightly. The 10 - year US break - even inflation rate rose. In July 2025, the Chinese central bank increased its gold reserves by about 1.86 tons, the eighth consecutive month of increase [67][72][76][80].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that the US June PPI recorded a month-on-month change of 0%, which is below the market expectation of 0.2%, providing support for silver prices [1][2] - The year-on-year PPI for June was reported at 2.3%, also lower than the expected 2.5%, indicating some inflationary pressure remains despite the stable month-on-month figures [2] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book revealed that tariffs are causing cost pressures for businesses, leading to price increases, which could support silver as a hedge against inflation [2] Group 2 - The silver T+D price closed at 9115 yuan per kilogram, with a daily increase of 0.16%, and the trading range for the day was between 9050 and 9147 yuan per kilogram [1][3] - The technical analysis suggests that silver T+D is expected to continue its upward trend after a period of consolidation, with resistance levels identified at 9200-9300 yuan and support levels at 8900-9000 yuan [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The international trade and monetary system restructuring and reserve diversification demand will continue to support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's new policies and economic situation will support the medium - term bull market. However, the high price and P/E ratio lead to increased volatility, and the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's interest - rate cut in the third quarter should be noted. It is recommended that investors take a long - position approach with medium - low positions, and short - thinking traders can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunities [4][5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook - **Intraday Quotes**: Trump's criticism of Powell and the clarification of dismissal rumors, along with US PPI data, caused gold price fluctuations. Anti - involution expectations drove up silver prices. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted, with London gold expected to oscillate between $3120 - 3500 per ounce before rising again. This week, focus on China's Q2 GDP, June economic data, and US June inflation and consumption data [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Quotes**: Shanghai Gold Index closed at 777.12, down 0.02%; Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9174, up 0.18%; Gold T + D closed at 770.80, down 0.18%; Silver T + D closed at 9113, up 0.04% [5]. - **Medium - term Quotes**: Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - 3500 per ounce. International trade cooling and the US fiscal expansion bill weakened gold's demand, but Trump's new policies and geopolitical risks supported it. The gold - silver ratio has returned to pre - April levels. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - 3500 per ounce in the short term [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - Multiple charts are provided, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis to Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump said he doesn't plan to fire Powell but doesn't completely rule it out. Bloomberg's report of a possible dismissal caused market fluctuations [17]. - Trump mentioned maintaining Japan's tariff rates, being close to a trade deal with India, and the possibility of a deal with Europe, but it's too early to comment on the Canada deal [17]. - The EU is ready to impose tariffs worth 72 billion euros ($83.6 billion) on US goods if trade negotiations with the US fail [18]. - Canada will implement a tariff - quota system for countries with free - trade agreements (except the US) and impose a 25% additional tariff on steel imports containing Chinese - smelted and cast steel [18]. - US producer prices were unexpectedly flat in June, and weak service prices may create conditions for the Fed to cut interest rates later this year [18].

周四（7月17日）欧洲时段，现货白银在38美元关口附近小幅震荡整理，美联储降息预期减弱支撑美 元，白银多头显露疲态，日内银价一度失守37.80美元，关税威胁和地缘政治风险继续支撑市场的避险 需求，白银技术形态强势，突破39.13美元可能预示白银将出现看涨反弹，瞄准下一个阻力区。 达拉斯联储主席洛根强调需维持高利率以确保通胀受控，并警告关税可能推高物价。6月CPI数据预示 美联储关注的PCE通胀指标将上行。 市场仍押注美联储年内降息50个基点，叠加对特朗普反复贸易政策冲击经济的担忧，或继续支撑银价。 据悉特朗普已向25国领导人通报8月1日生效的新关税计划。 日内重点关注美国零售销售、初请失业金及费城联储制造业指数。美联储官员讲话也将影响市场对降息 路径的预期，从而左右美元及白银走势。 【技术分析】 【要闻速递】 美联储降息预期减弱支撑美元，白银多头显露疲态。此前美国总统特朗普否认将解雇美联储主席鲍威尔 的报道，使得隔夜市场波动趋缓。加之市场预计美联储至少将等到9月才会重启降息周期，推动美元回 升至6月23日以来的高位（周三触及），白银价格因此承压。 此外，普遍向好的风险情绪被视为打压银价的另一因素，加剧了白银日 ...

Geopolitical and Trade Friction - The current geopolitical situation is complex, with ongoing tensions in the Israel-Palestine conflict and trade tensions due to the U.S. imposing tariffs on at least 100 small countries, which could lead to a domino effect on the global trade system [1] - Germany's IMK predicts that if U.S. tariffs on the EU are implemented, Germany's economic growth rate could be halved from 1.5% to 1.2% by 2026, increasing the recession risk for export-oriented economies [1] - Despite the heightened geopolitical risks, there has not been a significant influx of funds into gold, contrasting with the liquidity crisis sell-off seen at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic [1] Federal Reserve Policy and Inflation - The U.S. core CPI for June showed a year-on-year increase of 2.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, indicating persistent inflation [2] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book noted a slight increase in economic activity, but businesses remain cautious due to policy uncertainties, with significant price increases driven by tariff pressures [2] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September have risen to 70%, but the divergence between Powell's optimistic statements and the cost pressures revealed in the Beige Book has led to a rebound in the dollar index to 98.55 and an increase in U.S. Treasury yields to 4.46% [2] Gold Market Dynamics - On July 17, gold prices experienced significant volatility, with a range of over $50, reflecting intense market competition amid multiple risks [3] - Technically, gold is in a wide trading range of $3,300 to $3,370, with key support at $3,330-$3,340 and resistance at $3,358-$3,360, indicating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears [6] - Historical data suggests that gold often rebounds quickly after significant daily declines, as seen in March 2020, indicating potential for new trend beginnings following current volatility [6] Central Bank Gold Purchases - A trend of global central banks increasing gold reserves provides "invisible support" to the market, with 95% of surveyed central banks indicating plans to continue purchasing gold in the next 12 months [8] - China has increased its gold reserves for eight consecutive months, reaching 73.9 million ounces, reflecting a strategic shift towards "de-dollarization" amid weakening U.S. dollar credibility [8] - The dual drivers of central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks continue to reinforce gold's status as a safe haven in a fragmented global economy [8]

周四(7月17日)亚市早盘，现货黄金小幅下跌，现报3342美元/盎司附近。周三(7月16日)，有关美国总统 特朗普计划解雇美联储主席鲍威尔的传闻引发市场剧烈波动，美元一度大跌，随后缩小跌幅;而金价在 飙升后回吐多数涨幅。现货黄金周三收盘上涨0.68%，报3347.32美元/盎司。 特朗普"鲍威尔解雇令"虚惊一场? 美国《纽约时报》周三报道称，美国总统特朗普周二曾在椭圆形办公室，把开除美联储主席鲍威尔的草 稿信拿给一起开会的共和党众议员看。 美国彭博社报道称，特朗普可能即将解雇鲍威尔。 若在鲍威尔任期于明年5月届满前将他解职，可能对美元不利，因这将动摇外界对美国金融体系与美元 避险地位的信心。 Monex USA交易资深总监Juan Perez表示："真正可能摧毁美元价值的，是任何形式对美联储独立性与权 威的攻击。" 但在相关报道出炉后，特朗普本人予以否认。他说："我不排除任何可能，但我认为这非常不可能，除 非他(鲍威尔)因为诈欺而被迫离职。" 特朗普指的是白宫及共和党议员近日批评美联储总部翻新工程耗资25亿美元的争议。 在特朗普否认计划解雇鲍威尔的相关报导后，美元指数自低点显著反弹，缩减日内跌幅;金价则自高点 ...

Recent Gold Price Dynamics - International gold prices have experienced a decline, with a cumulative drop of 0.82% from July 14 to July 15, closing at $3336.7 per ounce due to a stronger dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields [1] - Short-term gold prices are fluctuating within the $3300 to $3400 range, with a reported price of $3333 on July 16, and technical support at $3320 and resistance at $3370 [1] Domestic Gold Jewelry Prices - Major brands like Lao Miao and Chow Sang Sang have seen their gold jewelry prices drop to between 999 and 1008 yuan per gram, with some brands experiencing a decline of over 6 yuan per gram in two days [2] - The wholesale market in Shenzhen has seen retail prices decrease to 756 yuan per gram, down more than 4% from 792 yuan per gram [3] Core Reasons for Price Decline - The U.S. dollar and Treasury yields are exerting pressure on gold prices, with the U.S. June CPI rising 2.7% year-on-year, leading to a near-zero probability of a Fed rate cut in July, thus increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold [4] - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields have rebounded, diminishing the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset [5] - A decrease in risk aversion has been noted due to a temporary easing of tensions in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, reducing demand for gold as a safe haven [6] - Market disturbances from Trump's tariff policies have been partially priced in [7] - Technical selling occurred as gold prices fell below the critical support level of $3350, triggering algorithmic trading sell-offs [8] Future Trend Outlook - Bearish sentiment suggests that if geopolitical risks continue to ease and the Fed delays rate cuts, gold prices may see a deeper correction, with Citigroup projecting a drop to $2500-$2700 by 2026 [9] - Bullish sentiment is supported by a surge in central bank gold purchases (244 tons added globally in Q1 2025) and a weakening dollar, with Goldman Sachs forecasting prices to reach $3700 by the end of 2025 and $4000 in 2026 [9] - Neutral views indicate a potential for price fluctuations in Q3, with a rebound expected in Q4, possibly returning to $3600 [9] Investment and Consumption Recommendations - Consumers are advised to consider wholesale markets like Shenzhen Shui Bei to avoid high brand premiums, as some brands charge processing fees of 100-200 yuan per gram [10] - For wedding needs, some consumers are opting for rental options for gold jewelry, with rental costs around 3000 yuan for a week [10] - Ordinary investors are encouraged to build positions gradually through gold ETFs or bank gold accumulation, avoiding leveraged trading [11] - It is recommended that gold should constitute 5%-10% of household assets as a hedge against inflation [12] - For those holding idle gold jewelry, the recent buyback price is approximately 748 yuan per gram, suggesting a good opportunity to cash in during price rebounds [13] Summary - Gold prices are under significant short-term pressure, but central bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainties provide long-term support. Consumers should take advantage of price corrections for selective entry, while investors need to be cautious of volatility risks in Q3 and prioritize gradual investment strategies [16]

Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review - Date: July 16, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Financial Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Treasury Bond and Shipping), Nie Jiayi (Stock Index) [2] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The restructuring of the international trade - currency system and the demand for reserve diversification will support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's reforms and related economic situations will support the medium - term bull market. But the high price and PE ratio make the price volatility increase, and the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's interest - rate cut needs attention in Q3. It is expected that London gold will oscillate between $3120 - 3500 per ounce in the short term, and investors are advised to take a long - position approach with medium - low positions [6]. Section Summaries 1. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - The resumption of US aid to Ukraine and threats of sanctions against Russia boost the safe - haven demand for precious metals. The US dollar index has a slight pullback, pushing London gold to around $3360 per ounce. Overnight, speculative funds pushed London silver to break through the $39 per ounce resistance level, but profit - taking led to a pullback. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted by Trump's new policies. It is recommended that investors take a long - position approach with medium - low positions. This week, focus on China's Q2 GDP and June economic data, and US June inflation and consumption data [4]. Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - 3500 per ounce. International trade cooling and the US fiscal expansion bill weaken gold's demand, but Trump's new policies and geopolitical risks support the price. In June, speculative funds flowed into silver and platinum markets, and the gold - silver ratio has returned to the level before April. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - 3500 per ounce in the short term, and investors are advised to take a long - position approach with medium - low positions. Short - biased traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage [6]. Domestic Precious Metals Market | Contract | Pre - closing Price | High | Low | Closing Price | Change (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Gold Index | 782.06 | 782.14 | 776.58 | 781.09 | - 0.12% | 404,570 | 7131 | | Shanghai Silver Index | 9213 | 9231 | 9156 | 9231 | 0.20% | 1,002,552 | - 7677 | | Gold T + D | 777.46 | 777.00 | 771.80 | 776.13 | - 0.17% | 211,514 | - 3484 | | Silver T + D | 9172 | 9189 | 9117 | 9184 | 0.13% | 3,257,966 | 14962 | [5] 2. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [8][10][12] 3. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - The EU accuses the US of resisting trade - agreement efforts and warns of counter - measures. Trump is open to further discussions before the new 30% tariff takes effect, and EU officials will go to the US for negotiations [18]. - Bitcoin breaks through $120,000 for the first time, with a 30% increase this year. Investors expect a policy victory this week [18]. - Trump says the US will send top - level weapons to NATO to support Ukraine, and will impose strict tariffs on Russia if no cease - fire agreement is reached in 50 days [18]. - The US Commerce Department launches a national - security investigation into imported drones, related parts, solar panels, and polysilicon [19].