机构：山西证券 研究员：王冯/孙萌 事件描述 8 月22 日，公司发布2025 年上半年业绩。2025H1，公司实现营收31.04亿元，同比下降6.12%；实现归 母净利润2.88 亿元，同比增长3.19%。 线下渠道收入下滑且门店净减少，线上渠道保持增长韧性。分渠道看，1）线下渠道方面，截至2025H1 末，公司共拥有门店1765 家，较期初净减少74 家。2025H1，直营、经销渠道分别实现营收24.31、0.78 亿元，同比下降7.69%、38.32%，占集团收入比重78.3%、2.5%。2）线上渠道方面，2025H1，实现营 收5.95 亿元，同比增长8.88%，占公司收入比重提升至19.16%；其中天猫、唯品会、EEKA 商城、抖 音、微信视频号分别实现营收1.29、2.45、0.33、1.16、0.56 亿元，同比增长3.81%、2.03%、-34.00%、 14.25%、136.45%，显示出公司在新兴社交电商平台的布局取得积极成效。 毛利率小幅提升，费用率优化带动净利率改善，经营性现金流表现强劲。 盈利能力方面，2025H1，公司毛利率为76.41%，同比微升0.11pct，其中电商渠道毛利率 ...

Core Insights - Metro's "Fat Transformation" strategy aims to enhance its competitive edge in the membership store sector by significantly altering its product structure and focusing on product strength [1][4][6] Group 1: Product Strategy - The Beijing Siqiquan store has undergone a major product restructuring, reducing the number of SKUs to approximately 8,000 with a product replacement rate of 55%, while increasing the number of baked goods and ready-to-eat items by nearly six times [4][6] - Metro's private label, exclusive, and imported products account for over 40% of its offerings, with imported goods making up about 25% [4] - The company plans to launch 200-300 new private label products annually, maintaining a penetration rate of over 70% across various categories, particularly in snacks, personal care, and beverages [4][6] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The membership store sector in China has experienced rapid growth, averaging over 30% annually since 2020, driven by changing consumer behaviors and the rise of the middle class [6][9] - The market is witnessing a bifurcation, with leading companies expanding aggressively while weaker brands are exiting, indicating a significant industry reshuffle [6][7] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Hema X have faced challenges, leading to store closures due to insufficient differentiation in product quality and high customer acquisition costs [7] - Sam's Club has faced criticism for its choice of mainstream brands, resulting in a trust crisis among consumers [8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The next few years are critical for determining market positions as the industry shifts from scale expansion to quality enhancement [9] - Experts suggest that Metro should strengthen its dual B2B and B2C strategy, leveraging its existing supply chain advantages to enhance consumer offerings [9]

Core Viewpoint - Hema's closure of its X membership stores marks a strategic shift rather than a failure, as Hema Fresh and community discount stores continue to operate and expand [4][16] Group 1: Closure of Hema X Membership Stores - Hema has closed all its X membership stores by the end of July 2025, including locations in Beijing, Suzhou, Nanjing, and Shanghai [1][2] - The closure signifies the end of Hema's attempt to establish a warehouse-style membership store model, which was intended to compete with Costco [5][7] - Hema X membership stores had reached a peak of 10 locations and claimed over 3 million paid members, generating nearly 600 million yuan in annual revenue [9] Group 2: Reasons for Closure - Hema X membership stores faced a dual identity crisis, trying to replicate the warehouse model while retaining the characteristics of traditional Hema Fresh stores, leading to a confusing product mix [10][11] - The product offerings did not align with the trend of smaller household sizes in China, resulting in mismatched inventory and poor sales performance [11][12] - Hema's membership model lacked innovation in product differentiation and value, with a low percentage of self-branded products compared to competitors like Sam's Club [12][14] Group 3: Strategic Shift - Hema's decision to close X membership stores allows it to focus on its core businesses, Hema Fresh and community discount stores, aiming for operational efficiency and user segmentation [16][18] - Hema Fresh plans to open nearly 100 new stores in 2025, expanding its reach to over 500 locations [16][18] - The company is also collaborating with Taobao's 88VIP membership to broaden its member base [16][18] Group 4: Insights on Membership Retail Market - The failure of Hema X membership stores highlights the competitive landscape of China's membership retail market, contrasting with the successful expansion of Sam's Club and local players like Fudi [19][21] - Sam's Club has effectively targeted middle-class families with a clear membership pricing strategy and a focus on high-demand products, while Fudi has leveraged its supply chain to offer unique products [21][22] - The experience of Hema underscores the importance of product differentiation, understanding local consumer preferences, and the need for patience in building a sustainable retail model [27][28]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its H1 2025 performance, showing a decline in revenue but an increase in net profit, indicating a resilient profit margin despite revenue challenges [1][2]. Financial Performance - H1 2025 revenue was 8.04 billion yuan, down 10.5% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 770 million yuan, up 8.7% [2]. - In Q2 2025, revenue was 3.77 billion yuan, down 8.8%, with net profit of 300 million yuan, up 8.0% [3]. Business Segment Analysis - The department store segment faced pressure on revenue due to lower customer spending, despite improvements in foot traffic and average transaction value [3]. - The supermarket segment is expected to maintain slight revenue growth due to ongoing store adjustments [3]. - The appliance segment experienced a revenue decline of approximately 15% in June due to the temporary suspension of national subsidies and a narrowing of the subsidy scope [3]. - The automotive trade business is transitioning from traditional fuel vehicles to a consignment sales model for new energy vehicles, impacting reported revenue [3]. Profitability and Cost Management - H1 2025 gross margin improved by 1.78 percentage points year-on-year, with Q2 showing a 2.2 percentage point increase [4]. - The automotive trade segment saw significant gross margin improvement due to changes in sales models and product matrix optimization [4]. - Total expenses decreased by 5.3% in H1 2025, supported by organizational optimization and cost reduction efforts [5]. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from resilient consumer demand in Chongqing and proactive adjustments across various business segments, leading to stable growth [5]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 and 2026 is 1.38 billion yuan and 1.47 billion yuan, respectively, with a current valuation of 9x, indicating a safety margin [5].

Core Insights - A notable retail signal is emerging in the U.S., where discount stores, traditionally serving low-income families, are now attracting middle and high-income households, reflecting deeper economic and social changes [1][2][4] - This trend contrasts with the rapid growth of discount retail in China and the decline of local membership-based supermarkets [1] Group 1: Discount Retail Trends in the U.S. - Discount stores, often referred to as "dollar stores," have historically provided affordable essentials for low-income families, but recent data shows an influx of higher-income customers [2][4] - Dollar General reported a record quarterly sales of $10.4 billion, with a 2.4% year-over-year increase in same-store sales, indicating a shift towards discount channels among higher-income consumers [7] - Dollar Tree also experienced significant growth, with a net sales increase of 11.3% to $4.6 billion, driven by 2.6 million new customers, primarily from higher-income brackets [7] Group 2: Economic Context and Implications - The shift towards discount retail is attributed to macroeconomic pressures, including a significant inflation rate that has altered consumer spending habits, even among middle-class families [9] - The performance of discount retailers is seen as a "reverse indicator" of economic sentiment, thriving during economic downturns while traditional retailers struggle [9] Group 3: Comparison with Chinese Discount Retail - In China, discount retail is gaining attention, with various discount stores rapidly expanding, but challenges such as reliance on clearance goods and unstable supply chains are emerging [10][12] - Chinese discount retailers often operate on a "channel arbitrage" model, lacking the robust supply chain and product differentiation seen in successful U.S. counterparts like Dollar Tree [12][14] - The operational inefficiencies and high costs associated with local membership stores have led to underperformance, highlighting a misalignment with the core principles of discount retail [14][19] Group 4: Strategic Insights for Future Growth - Successful discount retail hinges on product strength and operational efficiency, with a focus on offering better products at competitive prices [15][17] - Establishing a unique product pool and efficient operational systems will be crucial for discount retailers in China to gain consumer recognition and market share [19][20] - The long-term success of discount retail will depend on the ability to manage supply chains effectively and maintain low operational costs while delivering value to consumers [19][20]

Group 1 - The research team conducted an investigation into the operations, future development plans, and digital system construction of Zhangjiakou Xuanhua Supermarket, highlighting the importance of expert insights for business growth [2][10] - The team evaluated various store formats, noting the effective modular distribution system and standardized packaging at the Ping'an Road community store, which improved inventory efficiency [3] - The Daxin store was praised for its spacious design, clear layout, and fresh product offerings, contributing to a positive shopping experience [3] Group 2 - The team inspected the baking and staple food production lines, receiving positive feedback on automation and process management, while also providing suggestions for improvement [5] - Experts emphasized the need for the retail industry to adapt to transformation, focusing on supply chain optimization, experiential upgrades, and digital transformation to enhance competitiveness [6] - The concept of "product power" was discussed, stressing the importance of differentiation through deep processing and the need for strategic thinking in product development [7] Group 3 - Constructive suggestions were made regarding market expansion, supply chain optimization, and core adjustments, with a focus on enhancing product value to meet customer needs [8] - The association aims to continue serving its members and the industry by facilitating ongoing communication and resource integration to support businesses in their digital transformation and operational strategies [10] - The investigation revealed the supermarket's well-regulated management system and diverse product resources, indicating a solid foundation for future growth and market expansion [10]