请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 证券研究报告 2026年1月8日 可选消费投资策略 可选消费&海外团队 证券分析师：刘文正 SAC NO: S1120524120007 目录 01 可选消费宏观观点 03 可选消费各行业观点 02 近期政策解读 1 01 可选消费宏观观点 2 对比美日等发达国家，中国服务消费仍有广阔的 增长空间 我国GDP中消费占比仍低，横向对比仍有广阔增长空间。横向对比，根据世界银行，2024年我国居民消费占GDP比例为39.93%，与美/日/韩等发达国 家相比仍处相对低位。纵向参考，美国居民消费占GDP比例在过往60年间缓步上行，2024年居民消费占GDP比例67.93%/较1960年6.78pcts;日本在 1970s经济转向内需导向，居民消费GDP占比从1970年的45.67%提升至2022年55.50%水平。与储蓄金额占GDP比例情况结合来看，2000年以来我国储蓄 金额占GDP比重远高于美/日/韩等发达国家，系居民消费习惯偏于保守的直观体现。 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 19 ...

Core Insights - The community retail sector in China is undergoing significant restructuring, with the market size approaching 5.2 trillion yuan, attracting numerous players. However, many participants overlook the core demands for "quality certainty" and "scene adaptability," leading to a homogenized low-price competition [1] Group 1: Walmart's Community Store Strategy - Walmart has opened four community stores in Shenzhen and upgraded its app, marking the validation of its "small, refined, and close" community store model and entering a phase of replication and expansion [3] - The community store layout focuses on addressing industry pain points, featuring a "small and refined" model with approximately 500 square meters and 2000 selected products, catering to high-frequency daily needs [5] - Walmart's private label "Wojixian" has been upgraded to emphasize quality, with a focus on simple ingredients and stable quality-price ratios, differentiating itself in a price-driven market [5][7] Group 2: Product Quality and Consumer Focus - Walmart has established a high-standard food safety and quality control management system, ensuring end-to-end quality management through strict supplier and product controls [7] - The "Wojixian" brand emphasizes low-sugar and health-oriented products, responding to consumer demands for both health and trendiness, with innovative offerings quickly gaining popularity [9] - The company does not use private label sales as a performance metric, instead prioritizing customer feedback to drive product development, which is crucial for avoiding homogenization [9] Group 3: Omnichannel Integration - Walmart's community stores target immediate high-frequency needs within a 3-kilometer radius, while its app serves as a primary choice for daily replenishment, demonstrating the effectiveness of its omnichannel strategy [12] - The integration of online and offline channels creates a "collaborative closed loop," where online consumer data informs offline product optimization, enhancing overall retail efficiency [10][12] - Walmart's commitment to a "customer-first" philosophy underpins its operational strategy, ensuring that every action taken is aimed at enhancing consumer value [13] Group 4: Strategic Direction - Walmart's approach focuses on "product strength" and "omnichannel support," avoiding the pitfalls of low-price competition and instead building a differentiated advantage by addressing core customer needs [15] - The company's future development logic emphasizes "customer first, quality core, channel collaboration, and long-termism," guiding the industry towards a new phase of competition based on quality, efficiency, and value [15]

估值较低的商超区域龙头，基本面有望进入加速期 ——新华百货三季报点评与首次覆盖 一般零售 执业证书编号：S0740524040004 Email：zhengch@zts.com.cn | 总股本(百万股) | 225.63 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 225.63 | | 市价(元) | 13.75 | | 市值(百万元) | 3,102.43 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 3,102.43 | 股价与行业-市场走势对比 相关报告 新华百货（600785.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 12 月 30 日 执业证书编号：S0740523060001 Email：zhangji01@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | --- | | 增持（首次） 评级： | | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：郑澄怀 | | 营业收入（百万元） ...

Core Insights - Walmart's Sam's Club will open a new store in Huangpu District, Guangzhou, expected to launch in 2028, marking the first Sam's Club in the eastern center of Guangzhou [1][4][2] Group 1: Store Details - The planned Sam's Club will have a construction area of approximately 21,500 square meters and is set to begin construction in early 2026 [4] - This store aims to enhance the commercial capabilities and optimize the consumption structure in Huangpu District and the eastern part of Guangzhou [2][6] Group 2: Market Impact - The entry of Sam's Club is expected to provide differentiated shopping options for families in Huangpu District, promoting a new ecosystem of high-quality consumer life [6] - The store will focus on "selected products, excellent experience, and high value," aligning with the brand's philosophy of "better living at Sam's" [6] Group 3: Regional Development - Huangpu District is actively enhancing its commercial landscape, aiming to build a multi-core consumption scene to support Guangzhou's goal of becoming an international consumption center [7][18] - Recent developments in Huangpu include various commercial projects and the establishment of a diverse commercial ecosystem, contributing to the area's retail sales growth [14][20] Group 4: Economic Growth - Guangzhou's retail sales have consistently increased, with a projected growth of 19.9% in 2024 compared to 2020, supported by new consumption formats and vibrant economic activities [20] - The city has introduced measures to promote the "first store economy," resulting in the establishment of numerous new commercial entities and a significant increase in market participants [21]

【导读】"麻薯盒内有活老鼠"引发热议，山姆最新回应 中国基金报 晨曦综合整理 12月9日，"顾客称山姆一麻薯盒内有活老鼠"的话题引发热议。 据中新经纬报道，山姆会员商店方面回应称，山姆高度重视食品安全与会员体验。收到相关反馈后，已第一时间联动专业虫害公司开展全链路核查。 山姆方面表示，其一直执行严格的虫害消杀制度。经回溯商品制作、包装、仓库上架、拣货等环节的巡查记录与仓内监控视频，均未发现虫害痕迹或 异常。 经了解，该订单地址的取货点位于室外。第三方专业虫害技术人员赴取货点现场勘察发现，该地点周边有花木丛，为野生虫害提供了栖息条件，且现 场发现相关活动痕迹。综合商品制作、储运环节的虫害检查结果和第三方虫害技术人员鉴定结果，初步判断商品系在取货点放置期间，被周边虫害偶 然侵入所致。 目前，山姆已与消费者及时沟通并妥善解决。对于此事件给会员带来的困扰与不便，山姆深表歉意，后续将加强包装管理和配送服务。 12月9日凌晨，深圳一名消费者晒出"避雷贴"，称其通过山姆App的"极速达"服务购买的商品内"惊现活老鼠"。 "打开那一刻人都吓蒙了。"当事人称，收货当晚10时15分，就在平台给出"一星差评"并附图投诉。次日凌晨， ...

Core Viewpoint - Gao Xin Retail, the parent company of RT-Mart, is undergoing a leadership change with Li Weiping taking over as CEO from Shen Hui, amid ongoing financial losses and strategic shifts in the retail sector [1][2][5]. Group 1: Leadership Change - Li Weiping, previously a senior executive at Hema, officially became the CEO of Gao Xin Retail on December 1, following Shen Hui's resignation due to family reasons [2][5]. - Shen Hui's tenure lasted less than two years, during which he aimed to enhance the company's retail fundamentals and competitive pricing [5][6]. - Li Weiping has extensive experience in the retail industry, having worked for 26 years, including significant roles at Hema and Lotte Supermarket [5][6]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Gao Xin Retail reported a net loss of 1.23 billion yuan for the six months ending September 30, 2025, a reversal from a profit of 2.06 billion yuan in the same period last year [1][9]. - The company's revenue for the same period was 30.502 billion yuan, down 12.12% year-on-year [9][10]. - The financial struggles have been ongoing, with the company experiencing a net loss of 16.05 billion yuan in the 2023/2024 fiscal year, following a brief profit in the previous year [9]. Group 3: Strategic Direction - The leadership change comes at a critical time as Gao Xin Retail seeks to implement a three-year strategic transformation plan, focusing on product differentiation and supply chain efficiency [7][8]. - The company plans to complete over 30 store renovations this fiscal year and aims to increase online sales to 40%-50% of total revenue in the next three years [10]. - Analysts suggest that the company needs to invest more in private label and customized products to adapt to the competitive landscape of traditional supermarkets facing challenges from e-commerce and discount formats [10].

"零售企业出海的核心在于'本地化适配'与'优势输出'的结合"，业内人士分析指出，汇嘉时代的调 研路径既紧扣"一带一路"跨境贸易政策导向，又锚定了中国商品的供应链优势与新零售服务的经验优 势，这种"服务+供应链"的组合模式，或能降低区域零售品牌国际化的试错成本，也为更多中国商品进 入中亚市场拓宽通道。 据悉，汇嘉时代后续将基于此次调研成果，进一步细化海外业务方案，从品类筛选、选址落地到合 规运营逐步推进。市场期待，其"服务+供应链"出海模式的落地，能为中国零售企业拓展中亚市场提供 可参考的路径，同时推动更多高性价比中国商品进入中亚消费市场，实现服务出海的双向赋能。 编辑：牛朝阁 近日，新疆零售龙头汇嘉时代开启"商超出海"专项市场调研，以哈萨克斯坦的阿拉木图为调研核 心，通过实地走访、消费访谈与数据采集，为其"服务+供应链"出海模式铺路。此举被业内视为零售企 业服务出海，挖掘中国商品中亚市场潜力的典型开端，也为区域商贸零售服务品牌化、国际化探索提供 了新样本。 从调研披露信息看，阿拉木图商超市场呈现"场景分化、需求明确"特征，与中国商品的适配性已逐 步显现。当地商超主要分为两类：3000-10000平方米的大型综 ...

（原标题：营收大增21.8%，沃尔玛中国为何领跑业绩?） 11月20日，沃尔玛披露了2026财年第三季度（FY26 Q3）业绩报告。财报显示，沃尔玛该季度营收录得 1795亿美元，同比增长5.84%，营收增速连续两个季度环比走高，延续了稳健的扩张态势。 分区域看，沃尔玛中国业务表现尤为亮眼。FY26 Q3单季实现净销售额61亿美元，同比增长21.8%，不 仅大幅跑赢国际业务板块10.84%的平均增速，还连续多个季度维持同比两位数以上的增长，成为驱动 全球业绩增长的关键引擎。 若置于行业宏观视角审视，沃尔玛中国的表现更具韧性。对比2025年前三季度中国社零商超行业4.4% 的平均增速，沃尔玛中国实现了显著的超额增长。在当前消费回归理性、传统商超普遍面临转型阵痛的 存量博弈环境下，这份逆势突围的成绩单显得难能可贵。 面对如此显著的差异化表现，市场不禁追问：沃尔玛中国究竟做对了什么？ 左手山姆，右手电商 在很长一段时间里，实体零售与电商被视为一场零和博弈。但在沃尔玛的布局中，二者早已融为一体， 优势互补，成为业绩高增背后的核心因素。其中，有两组数据尤其值得关注： 现"，这不仅是对单店业绩的肯定，也是对山姆模式在中国 ...

（原标题：沃尔玛Q3中国市场业绩领跑 净销售额达61亿美元） 21世纪经济报道记者 唐唯珂 报道 2025年11月20日，全球零售巨头沃尔玛正式披露2026财年第三季度业绩报告。 在全球经济环境复杂多变的背景下，数据显示，总营收同比增长5.8%至1795亿美元，剔除汇率波动影 响后增幅进一步扩大至6.0%；调整后营业利润达72亿美元，同比增长8.0%。 尤为值得关注的是，中国市场以21.8%的净销售额同比增幅领跑全球，电商业务增速更是高达32%，成 为集团业务增长的核心动力。同时，沃尔玛宣布管理层换届，现年51岁的John Furner将于2026年2月1日 接替59岁的董明伦，出任公司总裁兼首席执行官。 华南某商超供应商向21世纪经济报道记者表示，对于沃尔玛而言，中国市场的持续高增与管理层的平稳 过渡，将为其在全球零售变革浪潮中的竞争增添重要砝码。未来竞争必定会集中在零售整个上下游层 面。 中国市场成关键突破口 财报显示，沃尔玛第三季度的增长得益于各业务板块的协同发力。全球电商业务的净销售额同比增长 27%，所有业务板块电商增速均超20%，数字化转型成效显著；会员经济持续贡献增量，会员及其他收 入同比增长9 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the innovative "direct supply of agricultural futures delivery products to retail terminals" model implemented by Hai Zheng Futures and Lianhua Supermarket, which significantly reduced apple procurement costs and enhanced risk management in agricultural product trading [2][4]. Group 1: Cost Reduction and Efficiency - In April 2024, Lianhua Supermarket needed to procure 20 tons of high-quality apples, with the spot market price at 9.98 yuan/kg, while the futures market price was around 8.20 yuan/kg, resulting in a price difference of 1,780 yuan/ton [2]. - Hai Zheng Futures successfully purchased 20 tons of apples at 8,205 yuan/ton, lowering the procurement cost to 8.21 yuan/kg, which laid the foundation for cost control [2]. - After deducting transportation and related costs, the final procurement cost for Lianhua Supermarket was 8.66 yuan/kg, a reduction of 1.32 yuan/kg compared to traditional procurement methods, totaling a cost savings of 24,757.92 yuan [3]. Group 2: Quality Assurance and Consumer Benefits - The project involved thorough quality checks on apples, with 72% of the delivered 1,101 boxes being first-grade quality, and a low defect rate of 0.82%, meeting high market standards [3]. - Lianhua Supermarket utilized its store network to quickly complete inventory acceptance and regional distribution, enhancing market visibility through optimized display and promotional activities, leading to positive consumer recognition [3]. Group 3: Industry Development and Future Plans - The project represents the beginning of applying the futures delivery model in agricultural trade, with plans to expand to other products like red dates, eggs, pigs, and peanuts [4]. - The favorable policy environment in China encourages financial institutions to support agricultural industries, facilitating the optimization of production, circulation, and sales of agricultural products [5].