| 项目类别 | 数据指标 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 1309 | 环比 数据指标 -49 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 1162 | 环比 -34 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 147 1198103 | -15 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) 1641 纯碱前20名净持仓 | 1365953 -345354 | -62895 34639 | | 期货市场 | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | | 30267 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | | | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | -252457 2388 | -50 纯碱9月-1月合约价差 | 11020 -100 | 828 13 | | | 玻璃合约9月-1月价差 | -165 | 11 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | -98 | 8 | | | 玻璃基差 | -82 | 30 | | | | | 华北重碱(日,元/吨) | 1260 | -20 华中重碱(日,元/吨) | 1325 | 0 | | 现货市场 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - From the supply side, the overall production of polysilicon enterprises increased this week, with some enterprises increasing production while others undergoing maintenance, and self - disciplined production cuts did not significantly expand production capacity fluctuations. From the demand side, affected by the anti - involution meeting, production capacity declined significantly, but prices gradually recovered. The production schedule of downstream photovoltaic modules has been adjusted down to a certain range, and demand has weakened marginally. It is expected that the overall production decline of silicon wafer enterprises will end as profits stabilize, and cell enterprises also have production cut plans. Overall, the demand side of polysilicon still faces significant pressure. Today, the polysilicon market limit - up was mainly due to the increase in coal prices, energy prices, and costs. Meanwhile, the photovoltaic sector continued to be a major part of the anti - involution meeting trading, leading to a volume - driven increase in polysilicon prices. However, with high profits and high inventory, if the downstream cannot absorb the high prices, it will form a negative feedback. Today, the spot price remained flat, and there were rumors of warehouse receipt expansion, causing price divergence at high levels and high volatility. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or sell call options [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract was 50,080 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 975 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 165,641 lots, a decrease of 26,538 lots. The price difference between August and September for polysilicon was 260 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon was 40,555 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,105 yuan/ton [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon was 46,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was - 3,105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,445 yuan/ton. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average prices of cauliflower - type, dense - type, and re - feeding polysilicon were 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract was 9,525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton; the spot price was 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume was 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon was 305,200 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons; the total social inventory was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon was 95,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 1,113 tons, an increase of 320 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China was 6.01 US dollars/kg, an increase of 0.98 US dollars/kg; the monthly average import price was 2.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.14 US dollars/ton [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells was 67,386,000 kilowatts, a decrease of 3,183,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells was 0.82 RMB/W, an increase of 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules was 88,975,860 pieces, a decrease of 14,424,120 pieces; the monthly import volume was 11,095,900 pieces, a decrease of 1,002,590 pieces; the monthly average import price was 0.31 US dollars/piece, a decrease of 0.01 US dollars/piece. The weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon was 26.63, an increase of 4.34 [2] Industry News - On the afternoon of July 22, a notice from the Comprehensive Department of the National Energy Administration on promoting the stable and orderly supply of coal circulated online. The notice stated that since this year, the overall supply - demand situation of coal in the country has been loose, prices have been continuously declining, and some coal mining enterprises have exceeded the announced production capacity to produce in order to "make up for price with volume", seriously disrupting the coal market order. To standardize the production behavior of coal mining enterprises and promote the stable and orderly supply of coal, the National Energy Administration plans to conduct a verification of coal production in key coal - producing provinces (regions) in the near future. On the morning of the 23rd, it was confirmed from multiple channels of the National Energy Administration that the notice was true. According to informed sources, the document was led by the Coal Department [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the futures prices of soda ash and glass both increased. The rise of soda ash futures was mainly due to market expectations for the Politburo meeting and the spread of real - estate rumors. The glass market showed a bottom - up trend, with improving profits and the potential for a fundamental reversal. In the future, soda ash will face supply - demand imbalance with continued price pressure, while glass may see an increase in production and potential price fluctuations based on market news [6]. - For soda ash, the supply is abundant, the profit is declining, and the inventory is increasing. The demand is expected to remain at a low level. For glass, although the production is increasing, the real - estate situation is not optimistic, and there are risks of high - level price drops if the rumors are false [6]. - The recommended trading ranges are 1150 - 1280 for SA2509 contract of soda ash with stop - loss at 1130 - 1300, and 1020 - 1150 for FG2509 of glass with stop - loss at 980 - 1180 [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures rose 3.66% this week, mainly driven by market expectations and rumors. Glass futures rose 5.85%, with potential for a fundamental reversal due to factors like industry profit improvement and capacity adjustment [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Soda ash supply remains abundant, profit continues to decline, and inventory is expected to increase. Demand will likely stay at a low level, and prices will face pressure. Glass production is increasing, but real - estate demand is weak. There are risks of high - level price drops if rumors are false [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Trade SA2509 in the 1150 - 1280 range with stop - loss at 1130 - 1300, and FG2509 in the 1020 - 1150 range with stop - loss at 980 - 1180 [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: Both soda ash and glass futures prices increased this week [8]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of soda ash rose to 1215 yuan/ton in the Shahe market, and the spot price of glass rose to 1092 yuan/ton in the Shahe market [16][22]. - **Basis**: The basis of soda ash weakened to - 2 yuan/ton, and the basis of glass weakened to 6 yuan/ton [16][22]. - **Price Spread**: The soda ash - glass price spread continued to weaken, reaching 131 yuan/ton, and is expected to weaken further next week [24][26]. 3. Industrial Chain Analysis - **Soda Ash Production**: The domestic soda ash operating rate increased slightly to 81.2%, and the output remained at 70.89 tons. Due to price drops, production is expected to shrink and remain flat next week [28][33]. - **Profit Situation**: Soda ash profit declined, with the theoretical profit of ammonia - soda and combined - soda methods dropping. Glass enterprise profit increased, showing a profit transfer phenomenon [35][38]. - **Glass Production**: The number of cold - restarted glass production lines increased by two, with output rising slightly but still at a low level. The output of photovoltaic glass decreased in terms of operating rate, capacity utilization, and daily melting volume [40][48]. - **Inventory Situation**: Soda ash enterprise inventory increased to 186.34 tons due to insufficient demand, and glass enterprise inventory decreased by 2.87% to 6710.2 million weight cases, with slow de - stocking [50][54]. - **Downstream Demand**: Glass downstream deep - processing orders decreased slightly, with an average of 9.5 days of orders for sample enterprises [56][58].