农产品日报（2026 年 3 月 3 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，玉米受周边商品下跌影响，主力合约减仓下行，期价震荡调整。当日，玉 米 5 月合约减仓 4.6 万手，加权合约减仓近 4 万手，玉米期价以小阴线收盘。昨 | | | | 日东北地区玉米价格继续上涨。期货盘面对现货影响明显，产区贸易商继续提价 | | | | 出货，深加工企业收购价格跟随上涨。市场整体看涨心态较多，但高价成交一般。 | | | | 华北地区玉米价格稳中偏强运行，近期华北地区多雨雪天气，限制玉米购销和深 | | | | 加工企业的到货，导致市场整体供应偏紧。同时，下游企业库存整体依然偏低， | | | 玉米 | 依然有补库的意愿，纷纷提价促收。渠道库存整体上偏低，贸易商建库意愿尚可。 | 震荡偏强 | | | 销区市场玉米价格继续上涨。期货盘面涨幅明显，产区贸易商提价，销区港口贸 | | | | 易商跟随涨价，但整体下游企业观望情绪较浓，市场高价成交一般。整体来看， | | | | 春节前后玉米增仓上行，资金流入带动期价突破上行，期货领涨、现货跟涨。本 | ...

金吾财讯 | 航运股普涨，截至发稿，中远海发(02866)涨5.83%，中远海能(01138)涨6.15%，德翔海运 (02510)涨3.54%，中远海控(01919)涨1.42%，东方海外国际(00316)涨1.30%。 消息面上，华泰证券表示，当地时间2月28日，美国联合以色列对伊朗发动大规模联合空袭。截至3月1 日，双方交火持续升级，霍尔木兹海峡、曼德海峡及红海航线安全风险急剧攀升，航线运力被迫重新部 署和调配，航运保险费用大幅上涨。市场对全球能源及贸易供应链中断的担忧持续加剧，战争风险溢价 持续释放，油运、集运、散货各板块运价或将迎来大幅跳涨。 该机构指，整体，中东局势升级在短期将大幅抬升全球航运价格，各子板块均受益。该机构认为，若冲 突持续时间较长，对全球供应链扰动越大，运价涨幅或将持续。基本面看，年初至今，油运市场持续走 强主因委内瑞拉/伊朗/俄罗斯地缘事件（1.1-2.28日，VLCC中东至中国航线运价均值同比上涨183%）。 美国及欧盟持续加大对油轮制裁，导致合规市场运力极度紧缺，大幅推升运价。截至2月底，全球约 16%油轮船舶为制裁船，较2024年同期的6%大幅增加。因此，该机构认为合规运力 ...

金十数据3月2日讯，油价周一开盘出现了四年来的最大涨幅，原因是美以两国对伊朗的战争致使全球原油市场陷入混 乱，霍尔木兹海峡也因此被迫关闭。花旗集团分析师马克斯·莱顿称："在我们的基本预测中，布伦特原油价格在未来至 少一周内将维持在每桶80至90美元的区间内。我们的基本观点是，伊朗领导层发生变动，该政权发生足够大的变革以在 一周到两周内结束战争，亦或者美国在看到领导层发生变化后决定缓和局势，并在相同时间内阻止伊朗的导弹和核计划 的发展。" 原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/03/02 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | 2026/02/13 | 62.8 ...

全球超大型原油运输船（VLCC）市场正经历六年来最剧烈的费率冲击。战争风险溢价与史无前例的船队兼并浪潮双重叠加，将运费推至历史高位，并开始 向实物原油价格和整个油轮市场传导。 2月25日，据彭博报道，沙特国家航运公司Bahri近期租用五艘VLCC，日租金高达20万美元，为波罗的海交易所记录的六年最高水平，其中一艘DHT Jaguar 的成交价更达每日20.8万美元。 与此同时，Polymarket数据显示，市场对美国在3月15日前对伊朗发动军事打击的概率定价已升至47%，霍尔木兹海峡封锁风险正被迅速计入运费和布伦特 原油期货价格，后者目前仍维持在每桶70美元上方。 | US strikes Iran by ... ? | | | | --- | --- | --- | | Past V Jun 30 | | | | $417,309,761 Vol. ( ) Jan 31, 2026 | | | | February 25 | 1% | Buy Yes 0.9¢ | | $6,805,049 Vol. | | | | February 26 | 2% | Buy Yes 2.2¢ | | $3,746,513 ...

Group 1 - International oil prices experienced a decline due to eased concerns over Iranian oil export disruptions, with light crude oil futures falling by $1.21 to $71.77 per barrel, a decrease of 1.66%, and Brent crude oil futures dropping by $1 to $73.23 per barrel, a decrease of 1.35% [1] - Market analysts noted that despite ongoing Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, Iranian oil facilities remain undamaged, allowing for normal export levels, which has provided temporary relief to the market [2] - The current oil price movements are influenced more by "war risk premium" rather than actual supply disruptions, with geopolitical tensions causing heightened market sensitivity to news updates [2] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the conflict between Israel and Iran may be short-lived, as further escalation risks could exceed the control of key stakeholders, with oil prices unlikely to surpass $80 per barrel due to U.S. government interests in keeping prices around $50 [2] - A senior Iranian commander indicated that Iran is considering closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately one-fifth of global oil is transported, with estimates suggesting that oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel if the strait is closed [3] - The oil market is currently in a tug-of-war between geopolitical risks and actual supply-demand dynamics, with short-term price volatility expected unless the conflict impacts oil and gas infrastructure [3]

Group 1 - The recent Israeli attacks on Iranian targets have heightened tensions in the Middle East, posing risks to critical maritime routes essential for global oil supply and trade [1] - Major shipping companies, including Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, have advised vessels to navigate cautiously in the region, anticipating that other companies will follow suit [1] - Shipping stocks, such as COSCO Shipping (00517) and China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872.SH), have seen an uptick as investors expect rising shipping prices to positively impact companies [1] Group 2 - The Strait of Hormuz is a vital waterway, handling about 25% of global oil trade, and is currently a focal point due to Iran's significant influence in the area [4] - At any given time, approximately 10% of the global supertanker fleet (around 90 vessels) is stationed in the Middle East Gulf, with about 20 vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz daily [4] - The potential for Iran to disrupt oil transportation in the Strait could lead to severe market reactions, with estimates suggesting oil prices could rise by $20 or more [7] Group 3 - Shipping companies are facing increasingly severe conditions, with at least two security risk management firms advising vessels to take extra precautions or avoid the region altogether [8] - Alerts from EOS Risk Group recommend emergency drills for vessels entering the waters around Israel, Iran, Syria, Egypt, Cyprus, or the Suez Canal, emphasizing the need for constant communication with foreign embassies or local military [8] - Maritime security company Ambrey has advised ships to thoroughly check connections with entities related to Israel and to reroute if necessary due to potential Iranian retaliation [8]

Group 1 - The recent Israeli airstrikes on Iran have escalated tensions in the region, posing unprecedented threats to global oil supply and trade routes [1] - Major shipping companies, including Nippon Yusen, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, have raised alerts for their vessels, anticipating a ripple effect across the industry [1] - The Middle East is critical for global shipping, with the Strait of Hormuz accounting for approximately 25% of global oil trade, while the Red Sea is vital for container shipping [1] Group 2 - The benchmark freight rates for supertankers from the Middle East to Asia have dropped to their lowest level since January due to economic weakness and reduced exports from oil-producing countries [2] - At least 10% of the global supertanker fleet, approximately 90 vessels, are actively operating in the Persian Gulf, with about 20 vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz daily [2] - If Iran were to close the Strait of Hormuz, the market could react catastrophically, with oil prices potentially surging by over $20 [2] Group 3 - The shipping industry is caught off guard by the rapid deterioration of the situation, with security firms advising vessels to take additional precautions or avoid the area altogether [3] - Ships entering waters near Israel, Iran, Syria, Egypt, Cyprus, or the Suez Canal are advised to conduct emergency drills and maintain communication with diplomatic or military entities [3] - Companies are urged to thoroughly check for any associations with Israeli entities and change routes if necessary due to concerns over Iranian retaliation [3]