证券研究报告 | 2025年11月30日 金融工程快评 2025 年 12 月沪深核心指数成分股调整冲击测算 金融工程快评 金融工程·ETF 基金 | 证券分析师： | 张欣慰 | 021-60933159 | zhangxinwei1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520060001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 胡志超 | 021-60375486 | huzhichao@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524070001 | 事项： 近几年来，随着投资者对指数化投资接受程度的不断提高，指数基金规模不断提升。中证指数公司（编制 上证和中证系列指数）和深圳证券信息有限公司（编制国证和深证系列指数）在每年的 6 月和 12 月会对 指数成分股进行定期调整，由于指数成分股调整是根据编制规则进行的被动操作，因此若成分股的调整规 模较大，则可能带来交易性的投资机会。 证券研究报告 由于指数成分股调整是根据编制规则进行的被动操作，因此若成分股的调整规模较大，则可能带来交易性 的投资机会。我们对跟踪不同指数的被动产品的 ...

- The report focuses on predicting the periodic adjustments of major broad-based indices, including CSI 300, CSI A500, STAR 50, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index, to capture short-term trading opportunities arising from passive fund rebalancing effects[1][9][11] - The prediction framework is constructed based on the index compilation rules and historical adjustment characteristics, incorporating a "historical excluded stocks" elimination mechanism to enhance prediction stability[5][15][19] - For the CSI 300 Index, the prediction is based on the index's compilation rules, which prioritize market capitalization rankings to select constituent stocks, reflecting the overall performance of market leaders[13][15] - For the CSI A500 Index, the selection process includes market capitalization screening and industry balance constraints, ensuring that the industry distribution of constituent stocks aligns with the CSI All Share Index[13][17][19] - The STAR 50 Index prediction is based on its compilation rules, selecting the top 50 stocks from the STAR Market with large market capitalization and good liquidity, while also applying the "historical excluded stocks" elimination mechanism[25][26] - The CSI 500 Index focuses on capturing the performance of mid-cap stocks outside the CSI 300 Index, with its sample space excluding the predicted constituents of the CSI 300 Index[27][28][33] - The ChiNext Index uses data from the past six months for its periodic adjustments, with the prediction framework considering the unique characteristics of the index[34][36] - The report provides detailed predictions for stocks likely to be included or excluded from each index in the December 2025 periodic adjustments, based on historical data and the respective index compilation rules[15][17][19][26][33][36]

- The report predicts adjustments to the constituent stocks of major indices, including CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, SSE 50, and STAR 50, based on publicly available index compilation rules and data [5][10][16][18][20] - CSI 300 Index is constructed by selecting the top 50% stocks based on average daily trading volume over the past year, followed by the top 300 stocks ranked by average daily market capitalization, while adhering to a 10% adjustment limit, priority for old samples, and a 20% buffer zone rule [5] - The adjustment prediction for CSI 300 Index involves calculating the average daily market capitalization and trading volume of A-shares over the past year, excluding stocks with suspension, violations, or financial reporting issues [5] - The report defines a "shock coefficient" to measure the price impact and duration caused by passive index fund rebalancing, calculated as: $ Shock Coefficient = (Passive Buy Amount - Passive Sell Amount) / Average Daily Trading Volume $ This coefficient is applied to assess the impact of adjustments on stocks [6][9] - CSI 500 Index is constructed by excluding CSI 300 constituent stocks and the top 300 stocks by average daily market capitalization over the past year, followed by removing the bottom 20% stocks by average daily trading volume, and selecting the top 500 stocks by market capitalization, adhering to a 10% adjustment limit, priority for old samples, and a 10% buffer zone rule [10] - CSI 1000 Index is constructed by excluding CSI 800 constituent stocks, the top 300 stocks by market capitalization, and stocks with insufficient liquidity (bottom 20% by trading volume), selecting the top 1000 stocks by market capitalization over the past year [16] - CSI 2000 Index is constructed by excluding CSI 800 and CSI 1000 constituent stocks, the top 1500 stocks by market capitalization, and selecting the top 2000 stocks by market capitalization over the past year [16] - SSE 50 Index is constructed by selecting the top 50 stocks by market capitalization and liquidity from the Shanghai Stock Exchange, adhering to adjustment rules similar to other indices [18] - STAR 50 Index is constructed by selecting the top 50 stocks by market capitalization from STAR Market, excluding stocks with delisting risks, major violations, or low liquidity (bottom 10% by trading volume) [20] - The report predicts adjustments to the STAR 50 Index, with two stocks, Aojie Technology-U and Shengke Communication-U, being added [20] - The shock coefficients for the predicted adjustments are calculated for each stock, with the highest coefficients observed for stocks such as Guangqi Technology and Ningbo Port in CSI 300, and Sheneng Shares and Suzhou Supor in CSI 500 [7][11][19][21]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the growing recognition of index-based investment among investors, highlighting the potential investment opportunities arising from significant changes in index constituents due to the periodic rebalancing of major indices like the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500 [1][4]. Group 1: Index Fund Growth - The total scale of passive index funds (including ETFs and off-market passive index funds) reached 4.5 trillion yuan as of October 31, with 2,294 funds, while enhanced index funds totaled 265.3 billion yuan, surpassing the scale of equity mixed funds at 2.53 trillion yuan [2][15]. - The total scale of equity ETFs grew from approximately 200 billion yuan in 2014 to 3.72 trillion yuan by October 2025, indicating significant growth [15]. Group 2: Historical Adjustment Effects of Index Constituents - Historical analysis from 2019 to mid-2025 shows that stocks added to indices tend to outperform the index in the two weeks prior to their inclusion, while those removed tend to underperform [2][24]. - The average excess return for stocks added to the index in the two weeks before inclusion was 4.89%, with a success rate of 66.67% [25]. Group 3: Latest Adjustment Impact Estimation - The expected adjustments for December 2025 indicate that the SSE 50 will adjust 4 stocks with an estimated passive buy amount of 5.5 billion yuan, the CSI 300 will adjust 10 stocks with an estimated net buy of 24.5 billion yuan, and the CSI 500 will adjust 50 stocks with an estimated buy of 3.3 billion yuan [3][33].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing acceptance of index investing among investors, leading to a significant growth in the scale of index funds, which reached a total of 4.44 trillion yuan as of September 30, 2025 [8][11]. Index Fund Growth - As of September 30, 2025, there are 1,521 passive equity index funds with a total scale of 4.44 trillion yuan [8]. - The scale of index funds tracking major indices such as CSI 300, CSI A500, and SSE 50 are 1.21 trillion yuan, 217.4 billion yuan, and 188.6 billion yuan respectively [11]. Index Component Adjustments - Regular adjustments to index components are conducted by China Securities Index Company and Shenzhen Securities Information Company every June and December, which can create trading opportunities if the adjustments are substantial [14]. - The article provides predictions for component adjustments in six major indices: CSI 300, SSE 180, SSE 50, Sci-Tech 50, ChiNext Index, and CSI 500, offering investment references for investors [14]. Predictions for Major Indices - **CSI 300 Index**: Predictions include the addition of 11 stocks such as Huadian New Energy and the removal of 11 stocks including Xingyu Co., Ltd. [2][15]. - **SSE 180 Index**: Predictions indicate the addition of 7 stocks including Huadian New Energy and the removal of 7 stocks such as COSCO Shipping Energy [3][16]. - **SSE 50 Index**: Predictions suggest the addition of 4 stocks including SAIC Motor and the removal of 4 stocks such as China Mobile [4][17]. - **Sci-Tech 50 Index**: Predictions include the addition of 2 stocks such as Aojie Technology and the removal of 2 stocks including Huaxi Biological [5][18]. - **CSI 500 Index**: Predictions indicate the addition of 50 stocks including Electric Power Investment and the removal of 50 stocks such as China Great Wall Technology [6][20]. - **ChiNext Index**: Predictions suggest the addition of 8 stocks including Changsheng Bearing and the removal of 8 stocks such as Huaxia Eye Hospital [7][22].

- The report predicts adjustments to the constituent stocks of six major indices: CSI 300, SSE 180, SSE 50, STAR 50, ChiNext Index, and CSI 500, based on the index compilation rules[2][19][20] - For the CSI 300 Index, 11 stocks including Huadian New Energy, Shenghong Technology, and Rockchip Micro will be added, while 11 stocks including Xingyu Co., Trina Solar, and Foster will be removed[3][21] - For the SSE 180 Index, 7 stocks including Huadian New Energy, Rockchip Micro, and Shengmei Shanghai will be added, while 7 stocks including COSCO Shipping Energy, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Trina Solar will be removed[4][24] - For the SSE 50 Index, 4 stocks including SAIC Motor, Huadian New Energy, and Northern Rare Earth will be added, while 4 stocks including China Mobile, Aluminum Corporation of China, and Poly Developments will be removed[5][26] - For the STAR 50 Index, 2 stocks including Aojie Technology and Shengke Communication will be added, while 2 stocks including Huaxi Bio and Hangcai Co. will be removed[6][28] - For the ChiNext Index, 8 stocks including Changsheng Bearing, Wancheng Group, and Changxin Bochuang will be added, while 8 stocks including Huaxia Eye, Yihualu, and Origin Water will be removed[7][31] - For the CSI 500 Index, 50 stocks including Electric Power Investment Energy, Trina Solar, and Supor will be added, while 50 stocks including Tuojing Technology, China Great Wall, and Jinghe Integration will be removed[8][35]

Group 1 - The core argument of the article emphasizes the importance of index composition adjustments, which serve as an internal elimination mechanism to ensure the vitality and health of the index over time [1][6] - The S&P 500 index has undergone significant changes since its inception, with 917 adjustments made to its constituent stocks from 1957 to 2003, averaging 20 changes per year [3][4] - Holding the original S&P 500 stocks from 1957 to 2003 yielded a higher return than the continuously updated index, with an initial investment of $1,000 growing to $157,029 at an annualized return of 11.40%, compared to $124,522 and 10.85% for the index [4][5] Group 2 - The article discusses the rationale behind the performance of newly added companies in the index, which tend to have better quality and growth potential, although they may be more expensive at the time of inclusion [6][7] - The index's methodology includes removing underperforming stocks, ensuring that the remaining constituents have good liquidity and stable performance [8][9] - The article highlights that the continuous updating of index constituents is crucial for maintaining the index's representativeness in the market [10] Group 3 - The article introduces the concept of dividend indices, which prioritize stocks with high dividend yields, contrasting with the S&P 500's focus on market capitalization and liquidity [11][12] - Historical data shows that the performance of the dividend index significantly outperforms that of its original constituents, with an initial investment of 100,000 yuan growing to 546,100 yuan at an annualized return of 13.03% compared to 135,300 yuan and 1.76% for the original stocks [14] - The core of dividend investing is to identify companies with sustainable high dividends, which can be assessed using expected dividend yields that factor in future earnings potential [15][16] Group 4 - The article mentions the establishment of the "CETC Central State-Owned Enterprise Dividend Index," which selects stocks based on expected dividend yields from central state-owned enterprises [16] - This index aims to reflect the overall performance of high expected dividend yield stocks among central state-owned enterprises, providing a new investment avenue for interested investors [16]

Group 1: ETF Market Growth - As of April 2025, the total scale of major market index ETFs has increased nearly fourfold compared to the end of 2021[8] - The scale of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 ETFs reached CNY 10,773 billion, CNY 1,441 billion, and CNY 1,409 billion respectively, with increases of CNY 9,274 billion, CNY 659 billion, and CNY 1,382 billion since the end of 2021[8] - The scale of the SSE 50, STAR 50, and ChiNext Index ETFs reached CNY 1,706 billion, CNY 1,664 billion, and CNY 1,156 billion respectively, with increases of CNY 988 billion, CNY 1,234 billion, and CNY 930 billion since the end of 2021[8] Group 2: Index Component Adjustments - The adjustment of index components occurs biannually in May and November, with implementation dates on the second Friday of the following month[15] - The average prediction accuracy for the CSI 300's adjustments is 87% for additions and 91% for deletions, with recent adjustments showing 93% and 91% accuracy respectively[23] - The average coverage rate for the CSI 300's adjustments is 89% for additions and 93% for deletions[23] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The study identifies significant Alpha return characteristics in the sample combinations of stocks added and removed during index adjustments[25] - Liquidity shock factors significantly affect the performance of stocks during index adjustments, indicating potential investment opportunities[25]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market will undergo significant adjustments to several indices, including the CSI 300, CSI A50, and SSE 50, effective after the market closes on June 13. This adjustment is part of a regular periodic review of index constituents [1][3]. Group 1: Index Adjustments - The adjustments will involve the replacement of several constituent stocks: 7 stocks will be added to the CSI 300, including Softcom and AVIC Chengfei; 4 stocks will be added to the CSI A50, including Northern Rare Earth and Dongpeng Beverage; and 4 stocks will be added to the SSE 50, including AVIC Shenyang Aircraft and Guotai Junan [4]. - The adjustments are designed to maintain the stability of the indices, ensuring they accurately reflect market trends while incorporating high-performing companies and removing those that no longer meet the criteria [3]. Group 2: Market Impact and Investment Opportunities - The inclusion of new stocks in the indices is expected to lead to price increases for these stocks, while those being removed may face downward pressure in the short term. This is due to passive fund reallocation and market re-pricing [2][5]. - Investment opportunities may arise from the anticipated inflow of funds into newly added stocks, particularly from ETFs and actively managed funds, which could create liquidity premiums, especially in small-cap sectors [5]. - Analysts suggest focusing on three strategic areas for investment: technology sectors benefiting from AI and domestic computing power, industries like aluminum and steel that are experiencing supply-side improvements, and consumer sectors such as offline retail and hospitality that show resilience amid macroeconomic fluctuations [5].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Index Adjustment Prediction Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts the adjustment of constituent stocks in major indices (CSI 300 and CSI 500) based on the index compilation rules published by the China Securities Index Company[12][13][15] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Data Reference**: The model uses trading and financial data from May 1 of the previous year to April 30 of the current year for mid-year reviews, and from November 1 of the previous year to October 31 of the current year for year-end reviews[12] - **Adjustment Date**: Adjustments occur on the trading day following the second Friday of June and December each year[12] - **Sample Space**: - Excludes ST, *ST stocks, and delisted securities - Includes STAR Market and ChiNext stocks listed for over a year, or those with daily average market capitalization ranking in the top 30 since listing[12] - **Selection Method**: - For CSI 300: Securities are ranked by daily average trading volume, with the bottom 50% excluded, and then ranked by daily average market capitalization, selecting the top 300[12] - For CSI 500: Excludes CSI 300 constituents and the top 300 by market capitalization, then ranks by trading volume and market capitalization, selecting the top 500[12] - **Buffer Zone Rules**: - CSI 300: New samples ranked in the top 240 are prioritized for inclusion, while existing samples ranked in the top 360 are prioritized for retention[12] - CSI 500: New samples ranked in the top 400 are prioritized for inclusion, while existing samples ranked in the top 600 are prioritized for retention[12] 2. Model Name: Event Return Analysis Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model analyzes the relationship between index sample adjustments and the cumulative excess returns of the adjusted stocks before and after the adjustment date[24] - **Model Construction Process**: - Collects data on all adjustment cycles since 2010 for CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices[24] - Calculates the cumulative excess returns of adjusted stocks relative to the index over a 60-day window before and after the adjustment date[24] - **Model Evaluation**: The model highlights that pre-adjustment event returns are more significant for investment strategies, as investors can trade in advance based on predictions or announcements[24] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Index Adjustment Prediction Model - CSI 300 Index: Predicted 7 constituent stock adjustments, with additions primarily in the transportation and defense industries, and removals concentrated in the electrical equipment industry[13][14] - CSI 500 Index: Predicted 49 constituent stock adjustments, with additions mainly in the electronics, electrical equipment, and computer industries, and removals concentrated in the electrical equipment and pharmaceutical industries[15][16][23] 2. Event Return Analysis Model - **CSI 300 Index**: Stocks removed from the index showed negative excess returns before the adjustment date, while no significant conclusions were drawn for added stocks[5][24] - **CSI 500 Index**: Stocks added to the index exhibited positive excess returns before the adjustment date, while removed stocks showed negative excess returns[5][24]