其三，股市关键节点将近，债市多头情绪升温。股市继续大涨，但对债市的直接"抽水"效应还不明显， 债市或也在押注股市从快牛切换至震荡慢牛的可能性，做多信心相应提升。往后看，倘若股市继续大 涨，可能仍会增加债市的变数，但随着债市多头情绪的修复，即便有调整可能也是重新上车的机会。 刘郁团队认为，整体来看，市场放量大涨，是资金情绪正盛的表现。同时，隐含波动率大幅上升，也是 投机热度快速上升的信号。不过，短期行情与资金交易行为相关，而牛市的三条中长期逻辑（稳市政 策、科技主线、反内卷叙事）依旧相对牢固。这意味着，若以上中长期逻辑不变，调整仍是机会，牛市 思维值得继续保持。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经上海8月26日电华西证券固收首席分析师刘郁团队在最新发布的报告中表示，8月25日，在权益 市场依然强势的背景下，长端利率大幅下行，10年、30年国债活跃券下行2.2bp、4.0bp，分别至 1.764%、1.998%，这是8月以来债市首次相较股市走出极其显著的独立行情。 "看股做债"思维回撤是重要且积极的信号，刘郁团队倾向于有三个原因：其一，市场降息预期升温。一 方面，美联储降息预期发酵，22日晚，美联储主席鲍威尔的鸽派 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a decrease in the interbank currency market's trading volume and balance in the first half of 2025, with rising repo rates and a reduction in the average net lending balance of large commercial banks. However, bond issuance and net financing reached new highs, with an increase in bond trading and a flattening of the yield curve for government bonds [1]. Group 1: Currency Market Performance - The total trading volume in the currency market for the first half of the year was 78.62 trillion yuan, a decrease of 16.1% compared to the previous period, with an average daily transaction of 6.6 trillion yuan, down 10.5% [2][4]. - The average daily balance in the currency market decreased by 4%, with large commercial banks' average net lending balance dropping by 13%, while money market funds saw a 6% increase in their average net lending balance [6][8]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The central bank implemented a moderately loose monetary policy, leading to an overall increase in funding rates and greater volatility. The net injection of liquidity through various tools amounted to 36.863 trillion yuan in the first half of the year [4][5]. - The weighted average of DR001 and R001 increased by 5 basis points to 1.62% and 1.73%, respectively, while DR007 saw a slight increase of 4 basis points to 1.78% [5]. Group 3: Bond Market Developments - A total of 27.1 trillion yuan in bonds were issued in the first half of the year, marking a 3.8% increase from the previous period and a 24.1% year-on-year increase. Net financing reached 10.5 trillion yuan, up 3.3% from the previous period [9]. - The trading volume in the cash bond market increased by 11.3% compared to the previous period, with a total of 184 trillion yuan traded [10]. Group 4: Yield Curve and Credit Spreads - Government bond yields initially rose and then fell, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating between 1.6% and 1.9%. The yield curve flattened, and the credit spread narrowed for most bonds [11]. - The yield curve for interest rate swaps shifted upward, with an increase in average daily transaction volume by 22.7% in the first half of the year [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the People's Bank of China's decision to cancel the freezing of pledged bonds in the context of bond repurchase agreements, highlighting potential impacts on the bond market and monetary policy operations [3][6][7]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The central bank's decision aims to facilitate open market operations involving government bonds and promote a higher level of openness in the bond market [3]. - The cancellation of the freezing of pledged bonds may significantly enhance the convenience of the central bank's operations in buying and selling government bonds, although it does not necessarily indicate a strong market rally [6][7]. Group 2: Comparison with International Practices - The current domestic repurchase framework differs from the international GMRA framework, particularly in terms of ownership transfer, collateral usage, and risk management mechanisms [4]. - The new pledged reverse repurchase agreements may align more closely with the GMRA framework, allowing for the re-pledging and trading of bonds while still being bound by repurchase agreements [4][7]. Group 3: Market Implications - The total amount of bonds involved in domestic pledged repurchase agreements could exceed 10 trillion, with a significant portion related to major banks and the central bank's open market operations [5]. - The cancellation of the freezing of pledged bonds is expected to have a neutral impact on the bond market in the short term, with a cautious outlook suggested [6][7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Leverage can be more aggressive, and positions can be heavier. The certainty of loose funds allows for a more active leverage strategy, and a heavier position can increase bargaining chips in subsequent market games [2][3][17]. - The growth of financing is mainly from the government sector, and the gap between deposit and loan growth rates is still being repaired. The risk of the bank's liability side has been significantly alleviated, reducing the risk of liquidity tightening [2][9]. - The two operations of the repurchase agreement mainly aim to reduce uncertainty, and the change in the scale of medium - and long - term liquidity injection this month may be small [2][11]. - The downward breakthrough of the overnight price center is related to the recovery of the large banks' lending capacity, and the downward trend of the capital price center has not reached its end [2][13]. - Seasonal fluctuations in capital prices will still exist. In the first and middle of July, capital prices may continue the downward trend, and the capital market may return to a stable and loose state [3][15]. Summary by Directory 1 Leverage can be more aggressive - **Previous Views Summary** - There is a possibility that the capital market will be more loosely liquid than expected. There is a chance that the capital price center will be below 1.4%. - The reasonable pricing center for the NCD of state - owned and joint - stock banks after the decline of capital prices in the future may be 1.6%. Currently, 1.7% is too high, and it has obvious allocation value, but it is difficult for the CD interest rate to decline significantly in June. - The main line of the bond market is the downward repair of liability costs and the return repair of position losses, which requires time. After the interest rate reaches a relatively low level, trading often fluctuates between "anticipating the market" and "falling behind" [8]. - **Financing and Credit Situation** - In May, credit growth was still weak. Corporate sector credit increased less year - on - year, and the long - term credit of the household sector showed a stable trend. Corporate sector bond financing increased slightly year - on - year, possibly related to the opening of the bond technology board. Government bonds increased by 236.7 billion year - on - year, and the growth of financing still relied on the government sector [9]. - **Function of Repurchase Agreement Operations** - The two operations of the repurchase agreement this month totaled an injection of 1.4 trillion, but considering the possible 1.2 trillion maturity in the same month, the net injection scale for the whole month is not large. The MLF and the repurchase agreement are currently in a relatively balanced state, and the space for large - scale incremental injection is decreasing. These two operations should be considered comprehensively [11]. - **Factors Affecting Capital Price Center** - The downward breakthrough of the overnight price center is related to the recovery of the large banks' lending capacity. After April, the liability risk problem of large banks has been significantly alleviated. The performance of the capital market in the past two weeks has verified that the large banks' lending capacity has recovered, and the downward trend of the capital price center has not ended [13]. - **Seasonal Fluctuations of Capital Prices** - In mid - June, there is the impact of the tax period, and in late June, the cross - quarter factor will dominate the trend of capital prices. Near the end of the month, fiscal funds may be released to supplement liquidity. In July, the tax period is relatively large, and the fluctuation of the capital market may increase. Before that, in early and mid - July, capital prices may continue the downward trend, and the capital market may return to a stable and loose state [3][15]. - **Bond Market Strategy** - Recently, the short - end and long - end of the bond market still have downward space, but the long - end space is still limited. The 1 - year treasury bond has returned to the recent low, and it is not difficult for it to break through downward. The downward range of short - end treasury bond interest rates can be larger than that of other short - end varieties, which may bring some changes to the flat treasury bond yield curve. Therefore, the leverage strategy can be more aggressive, and a heavier position can increase bargaining chips in subsequent market games [3][17].

Group 1: Money Market Overview - The average daily trading volume and balance in the money market increased in April, with a significant decline in major repo rates and a rebound in the net lending balance of large commercial banks [2][4][5] - The total trading volume in the money market reached 143.1 trillion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 9.4%, with an average daily transaction of 6.5 trillion yuan, up 4.4% month-on-month [2][3] - The average daily balance in the money market rose to 11.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.8% month-on-month, while the net lending balance of large commercial banks increased by 18.4% [5][6] Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The total bond issuance in April was 4.96 trillion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 7.8% and a year-on-year increase of 23%, while net financing decreased by 7.9% month-on-month [8] - The trading volume of bonds decreased, with a total of 33 trillion yuan in transactions, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 12.6% [9][10] - Bond yields experienced a downward trend followed by a period of stability, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating between 1.62% and 1.81% [11] Group 3: Interest Rate Swap Market - The interest rate swap curve shifted downward overall, with significant decreases in swap rates for various maturities [12][13] - The average daily transaction volume in the interest rate swap market decreased, with a total nominal principal of 3.6 trillion yuan, reflecting a 14.6% month-on-month decline [13]