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GMO传奇大佬格兰桑继续“唱空美股”:AI泡沫不破的概率几乎为零
聪明投资者· 2026-01-21 07:06
6. 非美市场 从 "明显低估",走到了"基本合理",有些地方甚至略贵一点点。但跟美国比,它们依然有吸引 力。 7. (给年轻人的建议)未 来有太多长期的、让人不舒服的风险,而且来得比大多数人想得更快。所以你最 好先有一项真正能落地的技能 。 把精力放在那些真正能解决现实问题的方向上。 1. 真正的大泡沫,都是被伟大的故事吹起来的。故事越大,泡沫越大。 2. 很多人会在股市里阶段性地赚到大钱,但这改变不了自然规律。市场越高,未来回报就越低。至于 AI, 我觉得它"不破"的概率几乎等于零。它满足当年铁路和互联网泡沫的所有条件。 3. 我不认为我们会愿意长期接受在当前估值水平下 这么低的隐含回报 。只要估值回到 近些 年的趋势附 近,未来十年可能都是负回报,二十年也未必能好到哪里去。 4. 个人投资者最大的优势,就是不用为了 "看起来跟大家一致"而投资。他们反而更有机会把事做对。你要 做的,就是等泡沫"明显到不能再明显"。 5. 黄金 不再是传统意义上的投资,它更像一种心理层面的备份。 当然, 我们也确实需要心理备份。 以上是 杰里米 ·格兰桑(Jeremy Grantham) 最新在 "Marin Talks ...
新一轮找矿突破战略行动取得新成效 推动耕地数量、质量、生态“三位一体”保护
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2026-01-05 22:33
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the achievements and future plans of the natural resources sector in China, particularly focusing on mineral exploration and resource management by 2025 [1][3] - A new round of mineral exploration strategy aims to achieve significant results by 2025, with a focus on key minerals such as uranium, copper, gold, lithium, and potassium salts, leading to substantial increases in resource quantities [1] - The natural resources system will innovate and optimize the management of natural resources and land spatial planning, with a goal to complete the "14th Five-Year Plan" mineral exploration objectives [1] Group 2 - The article mentions the successful prediction of 666 geological disasters throughout the year, indicating an improvement in comprehensive disaster prevention and control capabilities [2] - A collaborative mechanism for natural resources supervision and law enforcement has been established, addressing 53 typical violations through joint notifications from various departments [2] - Significant achievements in technological innovation are noted, including the creation of a world record for the longest continuous core and high core recovery rate in the Songliao Basin international continental scientific drilling project [2]
2026目标32万辆!锚定五大市场机会,一汽解放怎么干?| 头条
第一商用车网· 2025-12-15 10:13
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic direction and performance of FAW Jiefang, emphasizing its resilience and adaptability in a challenging market environment, while outlining its goals and initiatives for 2026 [1][4][18]. Summary by Sections 2025 Performance Overview - FAW Jiefang's performance in 2025 is characterized by the phrases "first suppress then rise" and "accumulate strength and gather energy," reflecting a complex transformation amid industry challenges [4]. - The company faced significant price declines and increased competition, leading to a focus on value rather than price, which resulted in a painful transition period [6][8]. - Despite these challenges, the second half of 2025 saw a strong recovery, with the heavy-duty truck market expected to reach 1.25 million units, a 20% increase, and a notable rise in new energy vehicle penetration to 26% [6][8]. Strategic Focus for 2026 - For 2026, FAW Jiefang aims to achieve a total vehicle sales target of 320,000 units, a 14% increase year-on-year, with specific goals of 75,000 units for new energy vehicles and 80,000 units for overseas markets [21]. - The company identifies five key market opportunities: a new vehicle replacement cycle, the potential to replace foreign brands in overseas markets, regulatory benefits, rapid penetration of new energy vehicles, and demand from new infrastructure projects [21][23]. Marketing Philosophy and Approach - FAW Jiefang's marketing strategy for 2026 emphasizes "intelligence" as a new growth driver and "quality" as a stabilizer, aiming to create a customer-centric ecosystem that reduces costs and increases profitability [12][17]. - The company plans to simplify its marketing management to allow partners to focus on market and customer engagement, moving away from complex policies [17][25]. Product and Quality Initiatives - FAW Jiefang has completed the layout and validation of 129 new products, with a focus on quality improvements and customer trust in its self-developed components [10][23]. - The company is committed to enhancing product quality, linking it directly to the career paths of senior management, and aims to create a virtuous cycle of quality improvement and competitive advantage [17][23]. Tactical Deployment - To capitalize on market opportunities, FAW Jiefang is addressing internal product and channel authorization issues, supporting financial initiatives, and enhancing its presence in both domestic and overseas markets [25]. - The company emphasizes localized product performance and financial solutions in international markets, aiming for a more tailored approach to meet specific regional needs [25].
qhse管理架构
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-24 01:25
Core Concept - The article discusses the importance of the QHSE management framework, which integrates Quality, Health, Safety, and Environment into a comprehensive management system essential for industrial and engineering sectors [1] Understanding QHSE - QHSE stands for Quality, Health, Safety, and Environment, which are interconnected areas that, when managed together, can prevent risks and enhance operational efficiency [2][5][6][7] Core Components of QHSE Management Framework - The framework includes several key components such as policies and commitments, organizational structure and responsibilities, risk assessment and management, legal compliance, training and awareness, operational control, emergency preparedness, performance monitoring, auditing, and continuous improvement [8][9][10] Significance of Implementing QHSE Management Framework - Establishing an effective QHSE management framework provides multiple benefits, including ensuring personnel and asset safety, enhancing operational efficiency and quality stability, fulfilling social responsibilities, and controlling costs and risks [11][12]
每日钉一下(什么是红利指数呢?)
银行螺丝钉· 2025-11-05 14:03
Group 1 - Funds are suitable investment products for ordinary people [2] - New investors should consider what type of funds are appropriate for them [2] - There is a free course available to help new investors understand fund investment from scratch [2] Group 2 - Dividend indices are a common type of strategy index [5] - Strategy indices are based on specific investment strategies and cover a wide range of industries [6] - There are four main types of indices: broad-based indices, strategy indices, industry indices, and thematic indices [6] Group 3 - The core strategy of dividend indices is to select stocks with high dividend yields [8] - Dividend yield is calculated by dividing the total cash dividends by the company's market capitalization [8] - For example, a company with a market cap of 10 billion and annual dividends of 500 million has a dividend yield of 5% [8]
茅台集团召开党委(扩大)会 党委书记陈华主持会议并讲话
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-10-27 11:12
Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasized that quality is the cornerstone of the company's survival and development, directly impacting brand reputation [1] Group 1: Quality and Innovation - The company must adhere to the principle that "quality is the soul of life" while balancing tradition and innovation [1] - There is a need to embrace modern science and technology to maintain the vitality of traditional craftsmanship and enhance technological innovation [1] Group 2: Market Management and Value Creation - The company aims to actively maintain the resilience of its channel ecosystem and continuously build a modern market management system to ensure healthy collaboration within the channel system and overall market stability [1] - Focus on value management and value creation to generate greater value for all stakeholders, fostering a sustainable development ecosystem based on shared interests and emotional connections [1] Group 3: Governance and Development Strategy - The company will further improve its modern enterprise system and governance structure, strictly following the direction of state-owned enterprise reform to enhance core competitiveness and risk resistance [1] - A commitment to ecological priority and green development is emphasized, with efforts to convert the value of "lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets" into tangible benefits [1] Group 4: Long-term Planning - The company is focused on practical, long-term planning to serve broader goals, continuously promoting sustainable high-quality development [1]
陕西省人民政府新闻办公室举办新闻发布会介绍“推动高水平保护 服务高质量发展”有关情况
Shan Xi Ri Bao· 2025-10-10 07:09
Core Viewpoint - The press conference focused on the theme "Promoting High-Level Protection and Serving High-Quality Development," highlighting the efforts of Shaanxi Province in natural resource management and ecological protection to support economic growth [5][22]. Group 1: Agricultural Land Protection - Shaanxi Province has made significant advancements in agricultural land protection, implementing a five-level management system and investing 100 million yuan annually to reward outstanding units [6][23]. - The province has added 2.086 million mu of arable land since the 14th Five-Year Plan, exceeding national assessment targets, with total arable land at 46.0461 million mu and permanent basic farmland at 33.7898 million mu [6][23]. Group 2: Spatial Planning and Control - The province has enhanced its land spatial planning system, completing various regional plans and ensuring that planning is effectively communicated and implemented at all levels [7][24]. - A total of 1,048 town plans and 6,632 village plans have been completed, supporting rural revitalization efforts [7][24]. Group 3: Resource Element Guarantee - Shaanxi has improved its mechanisms for land use approval, achieving a 95.83% guarantee rate for 600 provincial key projects, with 5.01 million mu of construction land approved this year [8][25]. - The province has also optimized mining rights registration processes, approving 72 mining rights and 35 exploration rights this year, with an additional coal production capacity of 9.45 million tons per year [8][25]. Group 4: Ecological Protection and Restoration - The province has established a comprehensive ecological protection and restoration planning system, completing plans for 10 cities and 77 counties [9][26]. - Significant progress has been made in ecological restoration, with 583,800 mu of ecological restoration completed in the Qinling Mountains and 709 kilometers of riverbank restoration [9][27]. Group 5: Public Services and Disaster Prevention - The province has implemented a comprehensive geological disaster prevention management system, successfully avoiding casualties in 33 out of 101 geological disaster incidents this year [10][28]. - The relocation subsidy for disaster-affected households has been increased to 150,000 yuan per household, with a high execution rate for disaster relocation projects [10][28].
基金也怕“假期肥”?国庆前上百只基金启动大额限购
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-09-29 12:21
Group 1 - A significant number of funds have recently implemented large purchase restrictions ahead of the holiday, with over 100 funds initiating such measures in the last ten days [1][3] - The restrictions are primarily aimed at protecting existing investors' interests and maintaining fund stability, as large inflows could dilute returns during the holiday period when bond interest continues to accrue [2][3] - Specific funds, such as Guotai Junan and Changjiang Asset Management, have set limits on large purchases, with some capping institutional investments at 100,000 yuan and others at 1 million yuan, with a planned resumption of operations on October 9 [2][3] Group 2 - The A-share market has shown a relatively calm performance compared to the previous year, with only a 1.06% increase in the four trading days leading up to September 29, contrasting sharply with a 21% rise during the same period last year [1][3] - Analysts suggest that the current market is in a consolidation phase, with a focus on core sectors that show resilience and strong consensus among investors [1][5] - The upcoming fourth quarter is expected to present investment opportunities, with key areas of focus including limited consumer recovery, investment pressures, and persistent low inflation [5][6] Group 3 - Historical data indicates that bond funds have a high probability of positive returns in the five trading days following the holiday, with short-term bond fund indices showing a 100% probability of positive returns from 2016 to 2024 [4] - The current market environment is characterized by a "slow bull" trend, with ongoing adjustments seen as a healthy consolidation that supports long-term market sustainability [6][7] - The technology sector is identified as a core focus for future investment, with opportunities in consumer electronics, semiconductor equipment, and various power equipment sectors expected to benefit from manufacturing upgrades [7][8]
黑龙江新季大豆玉米调研简析
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 11:28
Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - Short - term, take a short - side allocation for soybeans and a bearish view on corn; for the long - term, wait for the bottom for corn, and there is no clear long - term rating for soybeans [8][12] Core View - National soybean production is expected to remain above 21 million tons, with a supply - demand imbalance leading to a likely price trend of high - opening and low - closing. Corn production is likely to increase, with a high - opening and low - closing price, and no major unilateral market is expected this year [8][12] Content Summary by Category 1. Soybean - **Planting and Yield**: Influenced by policies and subsidies, the planting area of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang increased in 2025. Western regions maintained stable yields, while eastern regions had significant yield declines. Overall, the provincial yield was flat or slightly increased, and national production is expected to remain above 21 million tons [6] - **Cost and Subsidies**: The land rent cost of new - season domestic soybeans decreased, especially in the east. The comprehensive agricultural input cost was about 3,000 - 4,500 yuan/ha. Soybean subsidies were significantly higher than those for corn [7] - **Protein Content**: Due to the government's encouragement of high - oil soybean planting, the proportion of high - protein soybeans in Heilongjiang was about 40%, and the high - and low - protein differentiation was severe [7] - **Downstream Industry**: The downstream industry of domestic soybeans was not optimistic, with a supply - demand imbalance. Non - GMO soybean pressing enterprises faced challenges, and food and protein enterprises had stable processing and consumption but no growth in demand [8] - **Price Outlook**: The price of soybeans may open high and close low. When the rough grain price is below 1.75 - 1.8 yuan/jin, farmers may hold back sales. The short - term strategy is a short - side allocation [8] 2. Corn - **Planting and Yield**: Due to factors such as weather, subsidies, and economic benefits, the corn planting area in Heilongjiang decreased year - on - year, especially in the east. Most areas had increased yields, and the overall production was slightly higher than last year but lower than 2023 [11] - **Cost and Quality**: The land rent cost was the same as that of soybeans, and the agricultural input cost in the east was basically unchanged. The quality of new - season corn was better than last year, especially in terms of high bulk density [11] - **Price and Market**: The opening price of corn was high but trended down. The short - term market was bearish, and the long - term market needed to wait for the bottom. The market was likely to be volatile with a smaller amplitude than last year [12]
中国质量(南京)大会举行
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-09-22 20:59
Core Points - The China Quality (Nanjing) Conference was recently held in Nanjing, Jiangsu, focusing on the theme "Quality: Empowering New Quality Productivity" [1] - The conference serves as an international platform for quality exchange and cooperation, aiming to enhance international collaboration in the quality sector and share quality governance experiences from various countries [1] - The highest honor in China's quality sector, the China Quality Award, was presented to 9 organizations, with 78 organizations and 6 individuals receiving nominations for the fifth edition of the award [1] Summary by Categories - **Event Overview** - The conference adopted a hybrid format, primarily in-person, with participation from approximately 600 representatives from over 30 countries and regions [1] - Four thematic meetings were held during the conference, focusing on quality leading high-quality enterprise development, global supply chain quality development and collaboration, quality promoting sustainable urban development, and modernizing quality governance to boost consumer confidence [1]