证券研究报告 2026 年 1 月 11 日 湘财证券研究所 金融工程研究 基金研究 ETF 市场跟踪与配置周报 相关研究： | 1. 《北向资金视角下的ETF轮动》 | | | --- | --- | | 2022.03.30 | | | 2. 《基于北向资金与主力资金的 | | | 行业ETF轮动》 | 2022.06.28 | | 3. 《PB-ROE框架下的ETF轮动 | | | 策略——ETF系列研究》 | | | 2024.03.27 | | 分析师：李正威 证书编号：S0500522090001 Tel：(8621) 50295307 Email：lizw@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 ❑ 最近一周市场概况（2026-1-5 至 2026-1-9） 根据 Wind 数据，本周在 31 个申万一级行业中，30 个行业上涨，1 个行业 下跌，行业几乎全部上涨。涨幅较多的三个行业为综合（涨 14.55%）、国 防军工（涨 13.63%）和传媒（涨 13.10%）；唯一下跌的行业为银行（跌 1.90%），交通运输（涨 0.23%）与石油石化（涨 0.29%） ...

金融工程研究 量化研究 证券研究报告 2026 年 1 月 3 日 湘财证券研究所 基金市场跟踪与 ETF 策略配置月报 1. 《北向资金视角下的ETF轮动》 2022.03.30 行业ETF轮动》 2022.06.28 策略——ETF系列研究》 2024.03.27 研究——ETF系列研究》 2024.12.01 证书编号：S0500522090001 Tel：(8621) 50295307 Email：lizw@xcsc.com 中国人寿金融中心10楼 相关研究： 核心要点： 基金市场跟踪 2. 《基于北向资金与主力资金的 3. 《PB-ROE框架下的ETF轮动 根据 Wind 数据，截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，全市场共存续基金 13617 只， 相较于上月底，数量上升 142 只；基金总资产净值为 36.32 万亿元，上升 3151.15 亿元，基金市场规模持续上升。2025 年 12 月，价值基金指数、平 衡基金指数及成长基金指数收益率分别为 1.14%、2.71%和 3.69%，成长型 基金表现超价值型基金。 ETF 市场跟踪 4. 《资金流在ETF轮动中的应用 根据 Wind 数据，截 ...

晨 会 纪 要 研究所今日晨会要点如下: 一、金融工程 1.1、基金市场跟踪与 ETF 策略配置月报（李正威） 上周 ETF 市场概况 截至 2025 年 12 月 12 日，沪深两市共有 1379 只 ETF，资产管理总规模为 57806.33 亿元。 其中股票型 ETF 共 1073 只（36774.09 亿元），债券型 ETF 共 53 只（7222.06 亿元），货币 型 ETF 共 27 只（1895.76 亿元），商品型 ETF 共 17 只（2436.83 亿元），跨境 ETF 共 200 只（9430.76 亿元），未上市 ETF 共 9 只（46.83 亿元）。 在 2025 年 12 月 8 日至 2025 年 12 月 12 日，根据 Wind 数据，按照基金上市日，上周共 有 4 只 ETF 新上市，均为股票型 ETF，包括景顺长城中证科创创业人工智能 ETF（159142.OF） 和永赢中证科创创业人工智能 ETF（159141.OF）两只科创创业 AIETF、博时中证银行 ETF （159253.OF）和东财中证港股通科技 ETF（520530.OF）；按照基金成立日，上周共有 6 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The global storage chip manufacturers, including Samsung, SK Hynix, Kioxia, and Micron, are planning to collectively reduce production in the second half of 2025 to drive market prices up, signaling a potential recovery from two years of price decline [2][3] - Samsung's NAND wafer production target has been adjusted down by approximately 7% from 5.07 million wafers last year to 4.72 million this year, while Kioxia's production is also reduced from 4.8 million to 4.69 million [2] - SK Hynix's NAND production has decreased from 2.01 million wafers to about 1.8 million, a decline of around 10%, and Micron is maintaining conservative supply levels at its Singapore Fab 7 plant [2] Group 2: Market Demand and Trends - The demand for storage is expected to remain strong due to the rapid increase in storage capacity requirements driven by AI applications, including high growth in AI server demand and significant increases in per-unit usage [4] - The shortage of HDD supply is also contributing to the demand for NAND flash as a substitute [4] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report maintains an "overweight" rating for the electronics industry, highlighting investment opportunities in AI infrastructure, edge-side SOC, foldable smartphone supply chains, and the storage industry [5] - Specific companies to watch in the AI infrastructure sector include Cambricon, Chipone, and Aojie Technology, while in the edge-side SOC sector, attention is drawn to Rockchip, Hengxuan Technology, Lexin Technology, and Zhongke Lanyun [5] Group 4: ETF Market Overview - As of November 21, 2025, there are 1,367 ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, with a total asset management scale of 56,052.19 billion [7] - The stock-type ETFs account for 1,065 of these, with a total of 35,817.87 billion, while bond-type ETFs consist of 53, totaling 7,187.78 billion [7] Group 5: ETF Performance Insights - The median weekly change for stock-type ETFs was -4.56%, with media and banking ETFs performing relatively well, while the Sci-Tech Innovation Board's new energy ETF and photovoltaic leading ETFs showed significant declines [9] - The healthcare ETF saw the largest increase in shares, adding 2.581 billion shares, while the banking ETF experienced the most significant decrease, losing 1.608 billion shares [10] Group 6: ETF Rotation Strategy - The PB-ROE framework identifies high PB and high ROE industries as key focus areas, with historical backtesting showing that only these sectors achieved excess returns [11] - The combined strategy from the third and fifth quadrants yielded an annualized return of 11.93%, with an excess return of 13.22% [12] - Recommended sectors for the current week include non-ferrous metals, coal, and beauty care, with corresponding ETFs suggested for investment [13]

Group 1: Machinery Industry - In August 2025, the production of metal cutting machine tools in China reached approximately 71,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%, while the cumulative production from January to August was about 564,000 units, up 14.6% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in downstream manufacturing demand [2] - The production of industrial robots in August 2025 was about 64,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%, with a cumulative production of approximately 521,000 units from January to August, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.9% [2] - Manufacturing fixed asset investment in China grew by 5.1% year-on-year from January to August 2025, and cumulative export value increased by 5.9% year-on-year, supporting the stabilization of manufacturing demand [2] Group 2: Lithium Battery Equipment - In August 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles in China reached approximately 1.395 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%, with total sales from January to August amounting to about 9.62 million units, up 36.7% year-on-year [3] - The installed capacity of power batteries in August 2025 was approximately 62.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 32.4%, while the total production of power batteries reached 139.6 GWh, up 37.3% year-on-year [3] - Cumulative installed capacity of power batteries from January to August 2025 grew by 43.1% to 417.9 GWh, and total production increased by 54.3% to 970.7 GWh, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the new energy vehicle sector [3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The manufacturing PMI in China rose by 0.1 percentage points to 49.4% in August 2025, with key sub-indices such as production and new orders showing improvement, suggesting a recovery in manufacturing supply and demand [4] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for the machinery industry, highlighting opportunities in the general automation sector and lithium battery equipment sector due to the expected recovery in manufacturing demand [5] - Recommended companies include Haomai Technology in the general automation sector and Xianlead Intelligent and Hangke Technology in the lithium battery equipment sector [5]

Group 1: ETF Market Overview - As of September 12, 2025, there are 1,292 ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, with a total asset management scale of 52,387.73 billion [2] - The breakdown of ETFs includes 1,029 stock ETFs (35,315.17 billion), 39 bond ETFs (5,718.88 billion), 27 money market ETFs (1,564.76 billion), 17 commodity ETFs (1,611.53 billion), 173 cross-border ETFs (8,120.58 billion), and 6 unlisted ETFs (52.32 billion) [2] - In the week from September 8 to September 12, 2025, four new stock ETFs were launched, including two fintech-themed ETFs, with a total issuance scale of 5.682 billion [3][4] Group 2: ETF Performance Analysis - The median weekly return for stock ETFs was 1.97%, with the best-performing ETF being the China United Asset Management's Sci-Tech Chip Design ETF, which rose by 10.14% [3][4] - Conversely, the worst performer was the Guotai Junan Sci-Tech Innovation Drug ETF, which fell by 3.12% [4] - The average share change for stock ETFs was an increase of 6.6576 million shares, with the chemical ETF seeing the largest increase of 2.968 billion shares [4] Group 3: PB-ROE Framework and ETF Rotation Strategy - The PB-ROE framework categorizes industries into six quadrants, focusing on high PB and high ROE industries in the third quadrant and low PB and medium ROE industries in the fifth quadrant [5] - Backtesting from 2017 to February 2024 shows that only the third and fifth quadrants achieved excess returns, with annualized excess returns of 4.27% and 1.55%, respectively [5] - The combined PB-ROE rotation strategy yielded an annualized return of 11.93% and an annualized excess return of 13.22% [6] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the automotive, transportation, and public utilities sectors, corresponding to their respective industry ETFs [8]

Summary of the White Liquor Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The white liquor industry is transitioning from a price-driven logic to a market share-driven logic, moving from growth assets to dividend assets, indicating that companies need to enhance market share for growth rather than relying on price increases [1][3][5] - The current market is characterized by a bottoming out of channel profits while performance has not yet reached its bottom, presenting left-side investment opportunities [1][6] Key Points and Arguments - **Demand-Side Factors**: The industry is influenced by demand-side factors such as credit expansion and per capita income, with performance fluctuations categorized into channel bottom, performance bottom, and inventory bottom [1][4] - **Investment Focus**: Investors should focus on channel bottom and performance bottom, as inventory bottom tends to lag [4] - **Policy Impact**: High-end consumption restrictions have led to a decline in channel profits since 2022, with expectations that by mid-2026, sales and revenue will align, potentially marking the performance and inventory bottom [1][9] - **Market Characteristics**: The current cycle shows price clearing and a trend towards larger brands, with top brands like Moutai demonstrating stronger risk resistance and better inventory cycles [1][11] - **Long-Term Trends**: The industry's logic is evolving due to economic deleveraging and demographic changes, leading to a shift from high-end to affordable consumption, necessitating companies to adapt to this trend [5][13] Valuation and Investment Strategy - The valuation framework for the white liquor industry may shift from PE and PEG to PBR, with investment returns increasingly derived from stable performance increments and dividends, indicating a transition towards bond-like assets [2][15] - **Investment Opportunities**: Current market conditions suggest a focus on high-frequency signals, such as Moutai's transaction prices, which reflect supply and demand dynamics [10] - **Short-Term Outlook**: The white liquor sector is seen as having absolute return potential, although it is more of a short-term rebound opportunity rather than a long-term trend [16] Changes in Underlying Logic - The underlying logic of the white liquor industry has changed, with a reduced emphasis on investment and luxury attributes and a strengthened focus on fast-moving consumer goods attributes [1][13] - The shift from price logic to market share logic means that companies that can increase market share will achieve higher valuations [14] Key Conditions for Transition - For the industry to transition from deep-cycle growth stocks to bond-like assets, it must achieve stability in growth expectations, free cash flow, and maintain high ROE [19] Conclusion - The white liquor industry is at a critical juncture, with significant changes in market dynamics and investment logic. Investors should remain vigilant about policy impacts, demand-side factors, and the evolving valuation framework to identify potential opportunities and risks in the sector [1][2][3][5][15]

Group 1 - The market is returning to a "growth-value" barbell effect, with high ROE in growth sectors and high PB percentiles over the past five years [1] - Value sectors show lower PB percentiles, indicating a safety margin and a demand for catch-up in annualized returns over the past year [1] - Reasonable valuation percentiles and relatively high ROE are observed in sectors like non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, and banks [1] Group 2 - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159233) is the only dividend value fund that excludes financials and real estate [1] - The Ping An SSE Dividend Low Volatility Index A (020456) has significantly outperformed other dividend low volatility and CSI dividend funds, with monthly dividends and low volatility factors to control drawdowns [1] - The State-Owned Enterprises Win-Win ETF (159719) includes 15% Hong Kong stocks, with stable holdings, slow rotation, and high concentration in pure state-owned enterprises [1] Group 3 - The table presents various sectors with their respective PB (LF), 5-year PB analysis, ROE, and recent annualized returns, highlighting significant differences across sectors [2] - For instance, the telecommunications sector has a PB of 3.29 and an ROE of 17.57%, while the real estate sector has a low PB of 0.77 and a negative ROE of -21.29% [2] - The machinery equipment sector shows an exceptionally high ROE of 1298%, indicating strong performance despite a PB of 2.76 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities suggests a positive outlook for the brokerage industry, driven by increased market activity, trading volume, and margin financing, which are expected to enhance both valuation and profitability for brokerages [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The brokerage industry's performance is improving due to increased market participation and trading volume, alongside the expansion of margin financing [2][3]. - Major stock indices are reaching new highs, contributing to a significant increase in trading volume and margin financing balances, which positively impacts brokerage stock prices [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Brokerages have shown improvements in revenue, expenses, and profits, leading to a rising Return on Equity (ROE) [3]. - Cost-cutting measures have been implemented across the industry, resulting in a decline in management expense ratios, which is beneficial for free cash flow [3]. Group 3: Earnings Expectations - Recent earnings reports indicate a median net profit growth rate of 44.9% for three brokerages, with forecasts for 29 brokerages showing a lower limit of 80.1% and an upper limit of 98.0% for net profit growth [3]. Group 4: Valuation Metrics - As of July 28, the Price-to-Book (PB) ratio for brokerages is 1.58, slightly above the five-year average, indicating that there is still room for growth compared to historical highs [4]. - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the industry, suggesting that the combination of increased trading volume and margin financing will drive both valuation and profitability [4].

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Huazhong State-Owned Enterprise Reform Theme Flexible Allocation Mixed A (001445) reported a profit of 9.371 million yuan in Q2 2025, with a net asset value growth rate of 2.77% for the period, indicating potential investment opportunities in state-owned enterprises under reform initiatives [2]. Fund Performance - As of July 18, the fund's unit net value was 2.722 yuan, with a three-month return of 8.32%, ranking 517 out of 880 comparable funds [3]. - The fund's six-month return was 2.95%, ranking 718 out of 880, and the one-year return was 4.37%, ranking 751 out of 880 [3]. - Over the past three years, the fund's return was -27.74%, ranking 735 out of 871 [3]. Risk Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past three years was -0.3005, ranking 728 out of 875 [9]. - The maximum drawdown over the past three years was 37.88%, with the highest quarterly drawdown occurring in Q2 2023 at 17.38% [11]. Fund Holdings - As of June 30, the fund's average stock position over the past three years was 85.24%, compared to the industry average of 80.43% [14]. - The fund's top ten holdings as of Q2 2025 included China Pacific Insurance, Shanghai Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Hangzhou Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Nanjing Bank, Jiangsu Financial Leasing, Fujian Expressway, Dongwu Securities, and China Gold International [20]. Fund Size - As of the end of Q2 2025, the fund's total size was 355 million yuan [16].