第二股力量：通胀数据又超预期了。1月PPI环比涨0.5%，远超预期的0.3%；核心PPI涨0.8%，远超预期 的0.3%。同比来看，核心PPI涨3.6%，整体涨2.9%，都远高于美联储2%的目标。这意味着什么？降息 预期又要往后推了。市场本来盼着6月降息，现在这个盼头在一点点变淡。 朋友们，又跌了。 周五美股道指跌超500点，纳指跌0.92%，三大股指周线全绿。英伟达继续跌4%，软件股普跌， Salesforce跌2.3%，微软跌2.2%。更狠的是，网络安全公司Zscaler跌12%，CoreWeave跌18%。 为什么跌？这次不是单一原因，是三股力量同时砸盘。 第一股力量：英伟达的"利好出尽"还在发酵。财报超预期、数据中心增75%、指引远超预期——但股价 两天跌了近10%。为什么？因为预期打得太满了。Facet的首席投资官说得很透：市场现在处于"用事实 证明"模式，英伟达的财报没有完全证明自己。这话翻译过来就是：涨多了，就该跌一跌。不是公司不 好，是股价跑太快，得等一等业绩。 我的判断是：短期别接飞刀，但长期别悲观。 给你三个操作建议，周末就能用： 第一，美股别急着抄底。 英伟达情绪要消化，通胀数据要消化， ...

【导读】美股下跌，道指跌近600点；原油下跌，白银重挫，比特币跌破65000美元/枚 美东时间2月5日（周四），道指下跌近600点，纳指与标普500指数连续第三个交易日下跌。大型科技股多数下跌，微软跌近5%。原油下跌，白银重挫。 比特币跌破65000美元/枚，抹去特朗普胜选以来全部涨幅。 道指收跌近600点 标普指数抹去今年涨幅 道指跌592.58点，跌幅为1.20%，报48908.72点；纳指跌363.99点，跌幅为1.59%，报22540.59点；标普500指数跌84.32点，跌幅为1.23%，报6798.40点。 特朗普宣称，他觉得美联储下调美国基准利率这一举动"毋庸置疑"。他坚信自己所提名的下一任美联储主席人选凯文·沃什能够领会他期望下调利率的立 场。 | 美国科技七姐妹指数 | 19879.33 | -1.75% | | --- | --- | --- | | 8884057 | | | | 苹果(APPLE) | 275.910 | -0.21% | | US AAPL | 275.820 | -0.03% 盘后 | | 谷歌(ALPHABET)-A | 331.250 | -0.54% | | ...

1月29日晚，国际金价、银价一度保持大涨，现货白银日内涨幅一度达3.5%，报120.76美元/盎司，现货黄金一度大涨2%。 不过，接近午夜行情急转直下，现货金银开始大幅跳水，现货黄金连续跌破5400美元、5300美元、5200美元三道关口，截至发稿，跌幅5%，报5135美元/ 盎司；现货白银大跌7.82%，现报107.5美元/盎司。 另外，伦敦金属交易所(LME)三个月期铜一度大涨10.32%，随后也跳水，收窄涨幅，截至发稿，报14105美元/吨。 对此，网友很不淡定： "刚买了4克黄金，跌没了" "昨天刚上车，就1克亏了一百多？" 此前，国际金价持续上涨，引发市场各方关注。自1月26日，现货黄金价格突破每盎司5000美元的重要整数关口后，国际金价在震荡中继续上涨，连续突 破多个重要关口，至29日突破每盎司5500美元，并一度逼近5600美元。自今年初以来，国际金价已累计上涨28%左右。 同时，北京时间29日晚，美股三大股指全部下跌，截至发稿，道琼斯指数跌0.13%，标普500指数跌0.75%，纳斯达克综合指数跌1.64%。 多家美国科技巨头28日公布财报，业绩喜忧参半。 Meta大涨8%，此前该公司给出了好 ...

Group 1 - The US stock market experienced a slight decline on December 31, with the Dow Jones dropping nearly 200 points and the Nasdaq falling approximately 0.4% [2] - Chinese concept stocks saw a more significant drop, with the index declining by 1.4% [4] - Notable declines were observed in electric vehicle manufacturers, with NIO falling nearly 10% and other companies like Xpeng and Li Auto also experiencing significant losses [5][6] Group 2 - The anticipated year-end rally in the US stock market, often referred to as the "Santa Rally," has not materialized, attributed to traders delaying major decisions during the holiday season [9] - Despite a strong performance in 2023 driven by optimism around artificial intelligence, market volatility remains high due to concerns over trade policies and geopolitical tensions [9] - Analysts expect the S&P 500 index to achieve double-digit growth in 2026, but there are concerns about prolonged market fluctuations until corporate earnings catch up with high valuations [10]

Group 1 - Chinese concept stocks experienced a significant drop, with the index falling by 1.4% on December 31, 2023, while major U.S. indices also saw slight declines [2][4][5] - NIO, Xpeng Motors, and Li Auto were among the hardest hit, with NIO's stock price dropping nearly 10% [5][6] - The anticipated year-end rally in U.S. stocks, often referred to as the "Santa Rally," has not materialized, attributed to traders delaying major decisions during the holiday season [8] Group 2 - Analysts expect the S&P 500 index to achieve double-digit growth in 2026, but there are concerns about prolonged market fluctuations until corporate earnings catch up with high valuations [9] - The AI sector has been a significant driver of market performance over the past three years, with the S&P 500 rising by 24% in 2023 and 23% in 2024, although performance among major tech companies has started to diverge [9] - Precious metals, including gold and silver, have seen price declines as investors take profits after a historically strong year, compounded by increased margin requirements from CME Group [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the U.S. stock market, particularly in technology stocks, is a correction of overly optimistic expectations regarding AI capital expenditures and the Federal Reserve's imminent interest rate cuts [4][6]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The immediate trigger for the market drop was news that Oracle's $100 billion data center project might face obstacles, raising concerns about whether high capital expenditures in AI will yield tangible returns [3][4]. - Major AI stocks like Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, and Oracle experienced significant declines, indicating a shift in investor sentiment from optimism to scrutiny [2][4]. Group 2: Economic and Policy Expectations - The latest employment data showed an increase in job creation despite a rise in unemployment, complicating the economic outlook and reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to implement aggressive rate cuts [4]. - The market is recalibrating its expectations regarding the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve policies, moving away from a phase driven solely by liquidity and dreams to one that requires more reliance on fundamental data and profit realization [4][6]. Group 3: Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors are advised to maintain composure and not overreact to short-term market fluctuations, as the core drivers of the A-share market are domestic economic recovery, industrial policies, and company competitiveness [5]. - It is recommended to optimize portfolio structures by balancing dreams with reality, being cautious of companies with high valuations based solely on unfulfilled concepts, and focusing on firms with reasonable valuations and visible performance [5]. - Investors should identify opportunities arising from irrational sell-offs of quality tech companies due to external emotional shocks, as long as the fundamental strengths of these companies remain intact [5].

昨日夜间，黄金、白银突然跳水，美股三大指数也集体收跌。 COMEX黄金在两个小时内短线跳水超100美元，最终报收4329.8美元/盎司。COMEX白银一度大跌 5.5%，最终报跌3.88%，回调至62.085美元/盎司。 美股也普遍下跌，不过盘中三大股指均震荡回升，纳指收跌1.69%，此前一度跌超2%。个股方面，特斯 拉涨近3%，苹果转涨，英伟达跌超3%。 特朗普一直隔空喊话美联储应降息以降低政府借款成本，但美联储官员并不买账，甚至公开回怼。 美联储古尔斯比周五表示，央行在制定利率政策时不应考虑政府融资成本，并称这是美联储独立性至关 重要的关键原因。 "令我痛心的是，为什么一群政府之外、行政部门之外的人要来决定利率？"古尔斯比在芝加哥联储经济 研讨会上表示，"甚至有人提出，美联储应该降息，以降低政府举债成本。这实际上是将债务货币化。 这正是我们希望美联储保持独立的根本原因。" 另外，周五多位美联储官员发声，给降息前景泼冷水。 施密德表示，劳动力市场正在降温，但仍基本保持平衡；通胀仍过高，经济呈现增长势头，希望保持货 币政策适度限制性。 古尔斯比表示，他之所以在本周投下反对票，是因为他希望等待更多经济数据，以确 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global stock market downturn is primarily driven by rising concerns over valuation bubbles in the artificial intelligence sector, coupled with hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve during its October meeting, which increased the likelihood of maintaining current interest rates in December, thereby exerting pressure on global tech growth sectors [2][6][7]. Market Performance - On November 21, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.45%, closing below 3900 points, while the Shenzhen Component dropped over 3% [2][3]. - The A-share market saw 5071 stocks decline, representing 93% of the total, with all 31 major industry sectors experiencing losses [5][6]. - The Hang Seng Index also showed weakness, declining by 2.38% [6]. Sector Analysis - The technology sector, particularly AI and robotics, is facing scrutiny for potential bubble risks, as highlighted by fund managers who noted that these sectors are experiencing high trading congestion and significant capital absorption effects [3][8]. - The recent market adjustments are characterized by a global trend, with major indices retreating after reaching new highs [2][4]. Economic Indicators - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for the AI industry remains positive, with expectations of continued capital expenditure growth among leading tech firms in China and the U.S. through 2026 [2][9]. - Domestic economic indicators, such as PMI data and industrial output, have shown improvement, suggesting a steady recovery in the economic fundamentals [9]. Investment Strategy - Investment institutions recommend a balanced approach in asset allocation, focusing on sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" policies and those with improved supply-demand dynamics, while also considering quality tech growth stocks that have undergone sufficient valuation adjustments [9][10]. - The "anti-involution" policy is seen as a systemic restructuring that could create opportunities in sectors like renewable energy [9].

Core Viewpoint - Recent declines in the U.S. stock market, particularly in technology stocks, are attributed to concerns over inflated valuations, especially related to AI, and changing interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The recent drop in the Dow Jones by nearly 500 points and the S&P 500's four-day decline reflect a broader market correction, particularly in tech stocks that had previously surged due to AI hype [2][3]. - Amazon's recent issuance of $15 billion in bonds and issues faced by Blue Owl fund have heightened investor concerns, leading to a sell-off in tech stocks [3]. - The decline in Bitcoin is seen as a signal of reduced market risk appetite, as many tech investors also hold cryptocurrencies [3]. Federal Reserve Influence - A month ago, there was a strong expectation for a rate cut in December, but current probabilities have dropped below 50%, leading to market adjustments [4]. - Recent fluctuations in U.S. employment data have added to economic uncertainty, contributing to the market's downward trend [4]. Investment Strategy - Long-term investors are advised to focus on company fundamentals rather than short-term market fluctuations, viewing recent declines as opportunities to acquire undervalued stocks [5]. - Key upcoming data points include the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and non-farm payroll data, which are crucial for understanding future interest rate directions [5]. - Investors should differentiate between companies that genuinely leverage AI for profitability and those that are merely riding the hype, focusing on firms with solid fundamentals [5].

朋友們大家好，大家早上中午晚上好 這裡是提阿非羅 現在是2025年 11月13日華爾街午盤時間 我們來更新比特幣的行情 這個是比特幣的日線圖 從日線級別來看 我們發現比特幣依然是在下跌 那麼昨天的時候 我們是發現 它來到前面的 這樣的高點了之後 回來跌回來之後並沒有形成有效支撐 雖然說在這邊反複反複的測試 但是今天還是往下面跌 那麼如果說 把前面的這一帶 視作是一個小小的盤整區 然後把這一帶算作是一個假突破 那麼現在來說 相當於是跌到了這樣的一個 AMD的目標位 那麼跌到這邊有沒有可能會出現反彈 這是一個我們今天要留意的問題 而且目前來說你可以看一下前面的低點 就在這邊好像就已經摸了一下 然後有點反彈 我個人是覺得 那麼這一帶的低點 通常還是給它跌下去 會比較的好一點 因為下面有充分的流動性 因為這邊盤整 幾乎是從2025年的6月份開始 那麼原先在這一帶買入的人他的止損 那麼要麼是這裡 要麼是下面這裡對不對 那麼如果說跌破10萬這樣的一個關系 而且把前面這一帶的低點跌破的話 我相信對市場是有非常大的震動的作用的 那麼目前來說它來到這邊 測試了一下就反彈 我個人不太認為它就已經跌到了目標位 可能再往下面跌一些 ...