行 业 家用电器 2025 年 08 月 17 日 家用电器 研 究 周观点：在线音乐平台中报业绩表现强劲，关注 高护城河下的长期配置价值 投资要点： 在线音乐平台中报业绩表现强劲，关注高护城河下的长期配置价值 行 业 定 期 报 告 腾讯音乐和网易云音乐收入利润均实现了较强增长：本周两大在 线音乐平台均公布了 2025 年上半年业绩，其中腾讯音乐 2025Q2 收入 84.4 亿元，同比+17.9%，经调整归母净利润 25.7 亿元，同比+37.4%。 网易云音乐 2025 年 H1 收入 38.3 亿元，同比-6%，经调整营业利润 9.05 亿元，同比+35%，经调整净利润 19.5 亿元，同比+121%，主要因为公 司确认了 8.5 亿元递延所得税资产抵免。 关注在线音乐平台高护城河下的长期配置价值：目前在线音乐行 业竞争格局稳定，均有较强的用户粘性，网易云音乐通过 88VIP 和学 生 VIP 实现用户规模持续增长，且拥有优质的年轻 90 后和 00 后优质 客户，未来提价可期，成长空间广阔。 行情数据 本周家电板块涨跌幅 1.9%，其中白电/黑电/小家电/厨电板块涨跌 幅分别 1.0%/4.2%/1 ...

2025 年 08 月 16 日 策略类●证券研究报告 短期慢牛持续，聚焦成长和补涨 定期报告 投资要点 风险提示：历史经验未来不一定适用、政策超预期变化、经济修复不及预期。 分析师 邓利军 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080001 denglijun@huajinsc.cn 报告联系人 张欣诺 zhangxinnuo@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 重大事件驱动新股二级交投再度活跃，但关 键期变化仍在逐步展开-华金证券新股周报 2025.8.10 慢牛延续，成长风格不变 2025.8.9 大金融、通信二季度外资持仓规模上升 2025.8.8 变盘迹象或有所显现，关键期建议保持灵活 警惕-华金证券新股周报 2025.8.4 | 一、估值中高位后 A 股会怎么走？ 3 | | | --- | --- | | （一）基本面偏强、政策宽松等驱动 A 股估值中高位后继续上涨 | 3 | | （二）短期 A 股延续震荡上行的慢牛趋势 | 4 | | 二、行业配置：短期聚焦成长和补涨行业 7 | | | （一）短期科技、周期和大金融中的低估值补涨行业可能相对占优 | 7 | | （二）从估值性价比角度筛选成长 ...

金融工程 市场情绪监控周报（20250811-20250815） 本周热度变化最大行业为非银金融、通信 ❖ 本周市场热度跟踪 本周申万行业热度变化方面，一级行业中热度变化率正向变化前 5 的一级行 业分别为非银金融、通信、国防军工、家用电器、汽车，负向变化前 5 的一级 行业分别为医药生物、建筑材料、煤炭、社会服务、钢铁；申万二级行业中， 热度正向变化率最大的 5 个行业是燃气Ⅱ、电视广播Ⅱ、航海装备Ⅱ、电机 Ⅱ、休闲食品。 本周概念热度变化最大的 5 个概念为天津自贸区、期货概念、深圳国企改革、 ETC、国产操作系统。 ❖ 本周市场估值跟踪 本周宽基和行业估值： 证 券 研 究 报 告 本周宽基热度变化方面：热度变化率最大的为中证 2000，相比上周提高 4.9%， 最小的为"其他"，相比上周降低 6.88%。 沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000 的滚动 5 年历史分位数分别为 76%、96%、 88%。 申万一级行业中，从 2015 年开始回溯，当前估值处于历史分位数 80%以上的 一级行业有：电力设备、计算机、银行、电子、国防军工、建筑材料、医药生 物、传媒、轻工制造；位于估值历史 20%以下的 ...

截至2025年8月15日收盘，利仁科技股价报26.54元，较前一交易日下跌0.97%。当日成交量为16274手， 成交金额达0.43亿元。 利仁科技主营业务为小家电产品的研发、生产和销售，产品涵盖厨房电器、生活电器等多个品类。公司 所属行业为家用电器板块。 8月15日晚间，利仁科技发布公告称，公司第四届董事会第三次会议审议通过了《关于使用闲置募集资 金进行现金管理的议案》。同日召开的监事会会议也通过了该项议案。 资金流向方面，8月15日主力资金净流入281.22万元，近五个交易日累计净流入507.16万元。 风险提示：股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - "Anti - involution" will alleviate the dilemma of "increasing revenue without increasing profit", with a greater boost to PPI than CPI, and promote the nominal GDP growth rate to approach the real GDP growth rate [5][21]. - The US economy shows signs of weakness, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising, with an expected cumulative rate cut of 75bp in 2025 [5][83]. - China's economic growth rate in 2025 may be high in the first half and low in the second half, but it can achieve the 5% target for the whole year [5]. - The A - share market still has a certain degree of sustainability, and the bond market is likely to fluctuate narrowly, while the commodity market will enter a wide - range shock trend [5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1 "Anti - involution": Alleviate the Dilemma of "Increasing Revenue without Increasing Profit" and Improve Market Performance Expectations - **Overview**: "Anti - involution" aims to promote the economy to return from "scale expansion" to "high - quality growth", improve social overall efficiency, and is a key part of building a unified national market [10][11]. - **Approach**: Different from the previous supply - side reform, it focuses on downstream emerging industries, mainly private enterprises, with more moderate and gradual policies using market - based and legal means [18][19]. - **Impact**: It is expected to have a greater impact on PPI than CPI, and promote the nominal GDP growth rate to approach the real GDP growth rate, but there is uncertainty in the transmission of price increases from upstream to downstream [21][24]. - **Style**: From April to September, the market pays more attention to performance, and the "anti - involution" direction has performance release expectations [28]. - **Law**: It may be a key factor supporting the strength of the A - share market, and the current "anti - involution" market is in the policy - expectation stage [32][36]. - **Summary**: It can alleviate the dilemma of "increasing revenue without increasing profit" and improve market performance expectations [46]. 2 Global: The US Economy Shows Signs of Weakness, and the Fed's Interest Rate Cut Expectation is Rising - **Overseas Tariffs**: The US average effective tariff rate has reached the highest level since 1933, reducing global economic growth potential, and tariffs remain a key variable affecting China's exports [49]. - **Overseas Economy**: The global economy has short - term resilience, but the US economy shows signs of weakness in investment, and the Fed has lowered its economic growth forecast [55][60][66]. - **Overseas Inflation**: The short - term impact of tariffs on US inflation is emerging, and the medium - term inflation trend still faces great uncertainty [69][73]. - **Overseas Liquidity**: The inflection point of non - farm data may have arrived, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising, with an expected 75bp rate cut in 2025 [77][83]. - **Summary**: The global economy has short - term resilience but increasing uncertainty, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising [83]. 3 China: The Economic Growth Rate May be High in the First Half and Low in the Second Half, and the Spontaneous Recovery Momentum Needs to be Consolidated - **Economic Overview**: China's economic growth rate in 2025 may be high in the first half and low in the second half, with the GDP growth rate in Q3 and Q4 expected to decline compared with Q1 and Q2 [84]. - **Investment End**: The growth rate of fixed - asset investment continues to bottom out, and real estate investment is still the main drag [85]. - **Consumption End**: Consumption data still has resilience, and service consumption may be the key area of development [27]. - **Export End**: Attention should be paid to the impact of tariffs and export over - draw effects [5][28]. - **Liquidity**: The government sector is still the main force for increasing leverage, and the time for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts is expected to be postponed [28]. - **Summary**: The annual economic growth rate is likely to be high in the first half and low in the second half [29]. 4 Market Strategy: Positive Factors are Gradually Accumulating to Strengthen the Foundation for the A - share Market to Improve - **General Trend Judgment**: The subsequent market is expected to have a certain degree of sustainability [30]. - **Policy Trends**: The economic policy in the second half of the year is expected to maintain its stance and act appropriately [32]. - **Allocation Framework**: Gradually increase the allocation of stock assets [33]. - **Investment Advice**: The equity index will run strongly, the bond market may fluctuate narrowly, and the commodity market will enter a wide - range shock trend [5][33].

注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 （文章来源：证券时报网） | 行业名 | 成交量（亿 | 成交量较昨日增减 | 换手率 | 涨跌幅 | 今日主力资金净流入（亿 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 称 | 股） | （%） | （%） | （%） | 元） | | 非银金 | 136.04 | 45.43 | 3.28 | 3.16 | 154.98 | | 融 | | | | | | | 电力设 备 | 99.65 | 7.36 | 3.98 | 2.85 | 55.27 | | 有色金 属 | 73.37 | 3.71 | 3.34 | 2.23 | 36.90 | | 电子 | 105.13 | -6.15 | 3.80 | 2.05 | 29.27 | | 家用电 器 | 26.82 | 28.05 | 3.53 | 1.07 | 20.14 | | 基础化 工 | 69.90 | -10.39 | 2.58 | 2.09 | 16.12 | | 机械设 备 | 101.55 | -10.39 | 3.74 | 1.94 | ...

Group 1 - The A-share market continues its upward trend, with the cash flow strategy performing well, as evidenced by the 500 cash flow index rising by 2.23% and the free cash flow index increasing by 1.68% as of 1:30 PM on August 15 [1] - Over 300 A-share companies have disclosed their semi-annual reports by August 14, with nearly 200 companies reporting year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders, over 30 companies turning losses into profits, and nearly 30 companies achieving a year-on-year profit increase of more than 100% [1] - Key industries such as automotive, electrical equipment, and non-ferrous metals have shown strong performance in the first half of the year among A-share companies [1] Group 2 - The free cash flow ETF (159201) focuses on industry leaders with abundant free cash flow, covering sectors such as home appliances, automotive, non-ferrous metals, electrical equipment, and oil and petrochemicals, providing significant industry diversification to mitigate single-industry volatility risks [1] - The fund management annual fee rate is 0.15%, and the custody annual fee rate is 0.05%, both of which are the lowest in the market [1] - The cash flow 500 ETF (560120) targets sectors like non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, transportation, machinery, and pharmaceuticals, combining growth and quality with characteristics of small and mid-cap stocks [2]

统计局：社会消费品零售总额38780亿元，同比增长3.7%。按消费类型分，7月份，商品零售额34276亿元，同比增长4.0%；餐饮收入4504亿元，增长1.1%。1—7月份，全国网上零售额86835亿元，同比增长9.2%。其中，实物商品网上零售额70790亿元，增长6.3%，占社会消费品零售总额的比重为24.9%；在实物商品网上零售额中，吃类、穿类、用类商品分别增长14.7%、1.7%、5.8%。7月家用电器和音像器材类零售总额同比增30.4%，文化办公类增23.7%，通讯器材类增22.9%，家具类增22.6%，体育、娱乐用品类增21.1%，金银珠宝类增11%。 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.5%, while the CSI 300 decreased by 0.1%. The STAR Market 50 rose by 0.7%, the CSI 1000 dropped by 1.2%, the ChiNext Index declined by 1.1%, and the Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.4% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors included non-bank financials (+0.6%), banks (-0.0%), food and beverage (-0.2%), home appliances (-0.3%), and real estate (-0.5%). The worst-performing sectors were comprehensive (-2.7%), defense and military (-2.2%), telecommunications (-2.1%), steel (-2.0%), and textiles and apparel (-1.7%) [3][4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 22,792 billion, with a net inflow of 1.03 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Key Insights - The macroeconomic research indicates a rise in funds and a transition phase, highlighting government leverage and the non-bankization of deposits. The market anticipates a favorable financial data outlook [5] - The credit growth is gradually slowing, reflecting a structural transformation in the economy, leading to a shift in credit demand and a positive substitution for direct financing. Future evaluations of financial support should focus more on the effectiveness of interest rate reductions, indicating a new characteristic of "government increasing leverage, enterprises stabilizing leverage, and residents appropriately deleveraging" [5] - A forward-looking perspective suggests paying attention to new characteristics in financial data and the migration of residents' deposits [5]

Group 1 - The A-share market has seen a significant increase in trading volume, with total turnover exceeding 2 trillion yuan for two consecutive days, reaching a new high of 2.31 trillion yuan on August 14, 2023, up 130 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The decline in deposit interest rates has led to an expansion in bank wealth management and "fixed income+" fund scales, with resident funds indirectly entering the equity market through these channels, becoming a major source of incremental capital for future market trends [1] - The three major A-share indices experienced a collective pullback on August 14, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a peak of 3704.77 points before closing at 3666.44 points, down 0.46% [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed last year's high, indicating three new dimensions of outperformance: historical cost-effectiveness, consistent outperformance against economic growth, and potential outperformance against US stocks [2] - Despite external shocks and internal challenges, various industries in China have maintained steady growth, with GDP increasing by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, reflecting a resilient macroeconomic foundation [2] - Analysts suggest that while there may be increased volatility in the index due to valuation rises and new capital inflows, the current market trend since last year's "924" remains intact, supported by loose liquidity and improving corporate earnings [2]