核心结论 分析师 晨会纪要 【策略】"资金洞察"系列报告（四）：居民存款，何时搬家？ 居民资金尚未跑步入市，但存款搬家已经初现端倪。历史上，居民存款搬家 一般在熊牛切换后的 10-12 个月开启，当前距离去年 9.24 熊牛切换已有 11 个月，居民存款搬家可期。在居民存款搬家初期，市场可能会有 2-3 个月的 盘整；但如果存款搬家带动各类资金放量流入，市场或迎来新一轮主升浪行 情。 【机械设备】无人车系列专题报告 1：无人环卫车：千亿市场空间，设备+ 运营双重受益 随着无人环卫领域逐步度过 0-1 阶段步入量产，环卫领域运营企业有望迎来 一轮设备高景气成长+运营业务盈利显著改善，走出业绩+估值双提振的戴维 斯双击，建议关注劲旅环境/玉禾田/福龙马/侨银股份/盈峰环境。 【专用设备】国产算力链崛起，关注上游自主可控环节 当前我们认为科创 50 成分股和半导体设备股交集具备较大的补涨潜力，本 轮国产 AI 行情具备更强的基本面支撑，我们认为半导体上游的自主可控环 节作为产业链核心瓶颈，核心受益，建议关注：半导体前道设备/后道测试 设备，光刻机产业链相关标的。 【计算机】国能日新（301162.SZ）2025 半 ...

地理环境的特殊性、生态系统的脆弱性，叠加自然资源的独特性，决定了西藏复制东部发展模式行不 通。唯有跳出路径依赖，立足高原禀赋择"高"处立，聚焦特色优势向"特"处行，方能在守护生态底线前 提下，走出一条适配雪域高原的可持续发展之路。 （原标题：择"高"处立 向"特"处行——西藏推进高质量发展的启示） 在一次次实践中，西藏发展的择"高"处立、向"特"处行的图景愈发清晰。人才匮乏，就"借智"：接到调 令两天后即奔赴西藏的内地输藏干部、一个背包勇闯西藏的大学毕业生，以及扎根在西藏的企业家…… 各类奔赴西藏的人才，成为西藏产业发展的"外脑"，加速填补西藏人才缺口。 林芝喜马拉雅第三极生物科技有限公司工厂总经理张保生，已在自然堂工作了18年。他曾在广州、上海 等一线城市"漂"过，目前扎根林芝，"公司招聘的多是藏族大学生，这是'种子'，培养出来留在西藏"。 无论是内地各类输藏人才还是藏族建设者，都憋着一股"劲往一处使"的精气神。多布水电站的水库前， 竖立着的一排排展板，让到此的采访组一行不由地驻足凝视："三更高"，海拔高，站位更高、境界更 高、追求更高；"三不缺"，缺氧气，不缺精神、不缺情怀、不缺斗志。 国家能源集团建设的 ...

Economic Overview - The overall economic operation of the province is stable from January to July, with a year-on-year industrial added value growth of 3.9% [1] - High-tech manufacturing industry shows a significant growth of 7.8% [1] Industrial Performance - Mining industry increased by 10.9%, while manufacturing and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries grew by 3.0% and 1.1% respectively [1] - Among 40 major industrial categories, 23 experienced year-on-year growth, representing a growth rate of 57.5% [1] - Notable growth in chemical fiber manufacturing (9.3 times), and double-digit growth in several sectors including pharmaceutical manufacturing and electrical machinery [1] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment increased by 22.8%, with high-tech manufacturing investment rising by 37.0% [2] - First industry investment decreased by 7.1%, while second industry investment grew by 7.9% [2] - Construction project investment increased by 1.8%, with projects over 100 million yuan growing by 6.0% [2] Consumer Market - Retail sales of consumer goods reached 597.72 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.5% [2] - Significant growth in essential goods, with food retail sales increasing by 17.0% and daily necessities by 12.9% [2] - Upgraded products like smartphones and wearable devices saw substantial sales growth, with smartphones increasing by 130% [2] Trade Performance - Total import and export value reached 437.61 billion yuan, with exports growing by 13.6% [3] - Agricultural product exports increased by 9.1%, while steel and electromechanical products also saw growth [3] Price Trends - A slight decline in consumer prices and a decrease in industrial producer prices were noted [4]

Group 1 - The total electricity consumption in Shanxi Province reached 156.959 billion kWh from January to June, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.3%, with an acceleration of 2.5 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - All three industries and residential electricity consumption showed growth, with the primary industry consuming 1.402 billion kWh (up 6.81%), the secondary industry consuming 1,126 billion kWh (up 5.05%), the tertiary industry consuming 25.467 billion kWh (up 12.18%), and residential consumption at 17.49 billion kWh (up 6.29%) [1] - Industrial electricity consumption, a key pillar of the economy, grew by 5.17%, indicating a significant transformation and upgrade in the sector [1] Group 2 - The electricity consumption in traditional industries is shifting towards high-end, intelligent, and green development, with notable increases in the non-ferrous metal mining and selection industry (up 23.97%), petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industries (up 16.41%), and coal mining and washing industry (up 7.98%) [1] - The high-tech manufacturing sector showed remarkable performance, with electricity consumption in photovoltaic equipment and components manufacturing soaring by 671.83%, and other sectors like new energy vehicle manufacturing, medical instruments manufacturing, urban rail transit equipment manufacturing, and instrumentation manufacturing also experiencing significant growth [1][2]

Group 1: Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group (600967.SH) - The company is the only main battle tank research and manufacturing base in China, driven by both domestic demand and foreign trade [1][6] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 9.792 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.18%, and a net profit of 500 million yuan, down 41.33% year-on-year [6] - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.731 billion yuan, an increase of 19.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 186 million yuan, up 11.03% year-on-year, indicating an improvement in performance [6] - The company is actively expanding into the unmanned military equipment sector, leveraging its technological advantages in armored vehicles [6][7] - The company expects a significant increase in foreign trade sales, with projected sales reaching 4.517 billion yuan in 2025, a 64% increase from 2024 [7] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 11.5 billion yuan, 13.1 billion yuan, and 14.8 billion yuan, with net profits of 750 million yuan, 950 million yuan, and 1.2 billion yuan respectively [7] Group 2: North Navigation (600435.SH) - The company is a core supplier of military guidance systems, benefiting from the rising demand for long-range fire systems [9][10] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.748 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.91%, and a net profit of 59 million yuan, down 69.29% year-on-year [10] - The company anticipates a turnaround in H1 2025, with projected net profit between 105 million and 120 million yuan, compared to a loss of 74.42 million yuan in the same period last year [10] - The company has developed a unique "8+3" technology system and is integrating big data, AI, and IoT into its production processes [9] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 5.24 billion yuan, 6.44 billion yuan, and 7.64 billion yuan, with net profits of 310 million yuan, 400 million yuan, and 510 million yuan respectively [11] Group 3: Hainan Free Trade Port - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially close on December 18, 2025, which has been confirmed as a significant development for regional growth [13][16] - The report identifies four categories of companies that are expected to benefit from the Hainan Free Trade Port: those with significant foreign trade, those involved in supporting construction, tourism-related companies, and other local beneficiaries [16] - The current market liquidity is relatively ample, and the risk appetite is high, suggesting that the Hainan theme could continue to perform well as long as policy details are implemented as planned [16] Group 4: Medical Devices - The National Health Commission is promoting a "reverse involution" policy in medical procurement, which is expected to lead to a revaluation of the medical device sector [18][19] - The 11th batch of centralized procurement has been initiated, with a focus on optimizing selection rules and ensuring quality, which may lead to a recovery in the performance of some domestic manufacturers [19][21] - Recommendations include companies involved in already centralized consumables, those expected to benefit from a slowdown in procurement, innovative devices, and stable equipment manufacturers [21] Group 5: Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector is witnessing significant developments, with major contracts being signed for eVTOL aircraft, indicating a potential transformation in the low-altitude economy [37][39] - The report highlights the importance of commercial rocket capacity for the rapid development of low-orbit satellites, suggesting that commercial rocket orders will be a key indicator for the sector's growth [25][39] - Companies involved in liquid rocket engines, structural components, and specialized manufacturing processes are recommended for investment [25][39]

Group 1 - The tragic incident involving six university students who fell to their deaths during a visit to a mining facility in Inner Mongolia has prompted the local government to establish an investigation team for a higher-level inquiry [1] - Zhongjin Gold (600489.SH) expressed deep condolences in an announcement regarding the incident, which occurred at its subsidiary, China Gold Group Inner Mongolia Mining Co., during a flotation process tour [1][2] - The Inner Mongolia Mining Company, established in November 2005, reported a 4.5% year-on-year decrease in revenue to 5.915 billion yuan and a slight net profit decline of 0.24% to 2.28 billion yuan last year [2] Group 2 - The chairman of Zhongjin Gold, Zhou Zhou, is an alumnus of Northeast University, where the deceased students were enrolled, highlighting a connection between the company and the educational institution [2] - In June of the previous year, the Inner Mongolia Mining Company faced administrative penalties for unauthorized construction activities at the tailings pond of the Wunugutu Copper Molybdenum Mine, resulting in fines totaling 518,000 yuan [2]

Group 1 - The Inner Mongolia government is forming an investigation team to look into the incident where six university students died during a visit to a mining facility [1] - The students were from Northeast University and were participating in a study visit at the flotation process of the copper-molybdenum mine when a grid plate collapsed, causing them to fall into the flotation tank [1] - The company, Zhongjin Gold (600489.SH), expressed deep condolences and regret over the incident and its social impact in an announcement [1] Group 2 - Zhou Zhou, the chairman of Zhongjin Gold, is an alumnus of Northeast University, having graduated in 1992 from the mineral processing engineering program [2] - The Inner Mongolia Mining Company, a subsidiary of China Gold Group, was established in November 2005 and focuses on the exploration, selection, and smelting of non-ferrous metals, particularly the development of the Wunugutu Mountain copper-molybdenum project [2] - In the previous year, Inner Mongolia Mining Company reported a 4.5% decrease in revenue to 5.915 billion yuan and a slight decline of 0.24% in net profit to 2.28 billion yuan [2] - The company faced an administrative penalty of 518,000 yuan for unauthorized construction activities at the Wunugutu copper-molybdenum mine, as disclosed by the Hohhot Emergency Management Bureau [2]

Group 1: Hu Dian Co., Ltd. (沪电股份) - The company adopts a differentiated business strategy focusing on long-term sustainable benefits and major head customers, continuously investing in technology and innovation resources [1] - The Thailand production base has commenced small-scale production, accelerating customer certification and product introduction while controlling initial costs and improving production efficiency and yield [1] - A planned investment of 4.3 billion will be made in Q4 2024 to establish a high-end printed circuit board (PCB) expansion project to meet the demands of emerging computing scenarios such as artificial intelligence [1] - The company believes that the development of artificial intelligence and network infrastructure will require more complex and high-performance PCB products, presenting new growth opportunities for the PCB market while posing higher challenges to the technical and innovative capabilities of PCB companies [1] - The company aims to accurately grasp strategic timing, moderately accelerate investment, and allocate resources rationally to enhance competitiveness and respond quickly to market demands [1] Group 2: Tin Industry Co., Ltd. (锡业股份) - The self-sufficiency rates for tin concentrate, copper concentrate, and zinc concentrate in 2024 are projected to be 30.21%, 15.91%, and 72.72% respectively, with plans to increase exploration and resource expansion [2] - Tin prices will be influenced by supply and demand, following a logic of "cost sets the bottom line, demand determines fluctuations" [2] - The company ensures the supply of tin smelting raw materials through self-production, domestic procurement, and processing and re-exporting, with regular planned maintenance based on equipment operation conditions [2] - The company has established an industrial experimental platform for tailings re-selection and plans to build three tailings resource utilization bases in the future [2] - The company will continue to strengthen production operations and explore increasing the frequency of cash dividends to share development dividends with shareholders [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the ongoing digital transformation and AI implementation in the aluminum industry, with a focus on enhancing industrial intelligence and efficiency in production [1] - The report indicates that the demand for tin is expected to increase due to the driving forces of AI and the new energy industry, while global tin resource reserves are limited to only 14.8 years, exacerbated by the production halt in Myanmar [1] - The non-ferrous metal industry is showing resilience driven by new demand from sectors like new energy vehicles and low-altitude economy, while black metals are under pressure due to a sluggish real estate market [1] Group 2 - The mining ETF tracks the non-ferrous mining index, which reflects the overall performance of listed companies involved in non-ferrous metal mining and processing in the A-share market [2] - This index is characterized by strong cyclicality and sensitivity to commodity prices, effectively representing market trends in the non-ferrous metal industry [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the global industrial metal market is expected to remain in a loose cycle in the second half of the year, supporting price increases for industrial metals [1] - Domestic policy-driven demand is anticipated to gradually improve, leading to a release of demand elasticity for metals [1] - Supply constraints for metals like copper and aluminum are expected to continue, with a tightening supply-demand situation likely to further develop [1] Group 2 - For copper, the trend of shrinking supply elasticity is becoming evident, with processing fees continuing to decline and smelting profits under pressure, suggesting limited global copper supply growth in the second half [1] - In the aluminum sector, domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearing its ceiling, with minimal production elasticity, while strong resilience in the new energy sector is expected to maintain demand [1] - The mining ETF tracks a non-ferrous metal mining index, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metal industry chain, which is closely related to commodity price fluctuations [1]