油脂日报 | 2025-08-26 马棕高价或抑制需求，价格震荡调整 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约9582.00元/吨，环比变化-10元，幅度-0.10%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8488.00 元/吨，环比变化+30.00元，幅度+0.35%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9891.00元/吨，环比变化+1.00元，幅度+0.01%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9550.00元/吨，环比变化+70.00元，幅度+0.74%，现货基差P01+-32.00，环比变 化+80.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8620.00元/吨，环比变化+80.00元/吨，幅度+0.94%，现货基差Y01+132.00， 环比变化+50.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10010.00元/吨，环比变化+0.00元，幅度+0.00%，现货基差 OI01+119.00，环比变化-1.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：马来西亚独立检验机构Amspec表示，马来西亚8月1-25日的棕榈油出口量为1065005吨，上月 同期为914924吨，环比增加16.4%。据国家粮油信息中心监测，目前我国10月船期大豆采购超7成， ...

油脂日报 | 2025-08-22 市场观望情绪浓厚，油脂震荡调整 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约9500.00元/吨，环比变化-54元，幅度-0.57%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8394.00 元/吨，环比变化-20.00元，幅度-0.24%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9791.00元/吨，环比变化-37.00元，幅度-0.38%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9500.00元/吨，环比变化+60.00元，幅度+0.64%，现货基差P01+0.00，环比变化+114.00 元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8480.00元/吨，环比变化+20.00元/吨，幅度+0.24%，现货基差Y01+86.00，环比变 化+40.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9910.00元/吨，环比变化-50.00元，幅度-0.50%，现货基差OI01+119.00， 环比变化-13.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，马来西亚沙巴州首席部长拿督斯里HajijiNoor表示，截至2025年4月，该州超过3 万小规模种植户已经取得马来西亚可持续棕榈油（MSPO）认证，覆盖19.10万公顷以上的油棕面积。他表示 ...

花生油市场上，王朝晖介绍，国家粮油中心的数据显示，2024/2025年度，我国花生产量增加40万吨， 食用消费和压榨需求分别较上一年度增加10万吨和30万吨，但因进口收缩，该年度结转库存降至低位。 新作方面，当前，花生正处于关键生长期，未来需要关注花生长势、收割期天气情况、新作单产以及进 口情况。 （文章来源：期货日报） 8月20日，由郑州商品交易所、芝加哥商业交易所集团联合主办的2025中国（郑州）国际期货论坛正式 开启。在当日下午举行的农产品（油脂油料）论坛上，中粮油脂副总经理王朝晖围绕供需格局变化下， 国内菜籽油、花生油市场面临的风险及应对方法作主题演讲。 菜油市场上，王朝晖预计，2025/2026年度我国油菜籽新增供给1960万吨，其中产量1710万吨，进口量 250万吨。国内进口油菜籽压榨量及开机率受产地产量和进口影响波动较大，预计今年四季度之前国内 菜籽油供给充足。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The domestic tariff on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations have an impact on the market at the macro level. [3][5][6] - The main logic currently revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk factor is El Niño weather. [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil - The main long positions in soybean oil have increased, indicating a bullish signal. [3] - The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production decline falling short of expectations. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season, presenting a neutral situation. [3][4] - The spot price of soybean oil is 8,580, with a basis of 54, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, a bullish signal. [4] - On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year, a bearish signal. [4] - The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, a bullish signal. [4] - Soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,200 - 8,600. [3] Daily Views - Palm Oil - The main short positions in palm oil have decreased, indicating a bearish signal. [5] - Similar to the soybean oil situation, the MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [5] - The spot price of palm oil is 9,650, with a basis of 10, indicating a neutral situation. [5] - On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year, a bullish signal. [5] - The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, a bullish signal. [5] - Palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,300 - 9,700. [5] Daily Views - Rapeseed Oil - The main short positions in rapeseed oil have increased, indicating a bearish signal. [6] - The MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is the same as above, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [6] - The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,900, with a basis of 50, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, a bullish signal. [6] - On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year, a bearish signal. [6] - The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, a bullish signal. [6] - Rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000. [6] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors include the US soybean stock-to-use ratio remaining around 4%, indicating tight supply, and the palm oil production reduction season. [7] - Bearish factors include the historically high prices of oils and fats, the continuous accumulation of domestic oils and fats inventories, the weak macroeconomy, and the high expected production of related oils and fats. [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the increase in domestic palm oil and rapeseed oil purchases and the call to postpone B50 limit the upside space for oils. However, in the long term, the supply - demand of the three major oils is expected to tighten, laying the foundation for the rise of oil prices. The price performance in the fourth quarter is expected to be stronger than that in the third quarter [2][60]. - For trading strategies, in the short term, the support levels for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils are 8400 - 8500, 9300 - 9400, and 9700 respectively. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended, and chasing highs should be done with caution. Attention can be paid to the reverse spread of rapeseed oil 11 - 01 [3][61]. Summary by Directory Palm Oil - **Short - term Outlook**: Although palm oil is in the seasonal production - increasing period, with the August inventory rising to 2.13 million tons but lower than market expectations, and the high - frequency data showing a decrease in production and an increase in exports in August, palm oil is expected to strengthen again after a small correction [6]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: The MPOB July report shows that Malaysia's palm oil has strong supply and demand, but high domestic consumption leads to a lower - than - expected inventory increase. In August, export data improved, with a 16.5 - 21.3% increase in exports from August 1 - 15 compared to the previous month, and production growth slowed down, which is beneficial for price increases. However, seasonal inventory accumulation from September to October may disrupt prices [6]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: The GAPKI May report shows a decrease in production and an increase in exports, with the inventory decreasing to 2.916 million tons. From June to July, production continued to decline, possibly due to the crackdown on illegal plantations. Domestic consumption and export demand are expected to remain strong, and the supply - demand is expected to maintain a long - term tight balance, driving up international palm oil prices. The main uncertainties come from lagging data and the risk of B50 postponement [8]. - **Domestic Palm Oil**: In the short term, the supply is relatively abundant, with the inventory reaching 617,300 tons as of August 15. Recently, the import profit has improved, and traders are increasing purchases from August to November. In the long term, although the supply pressure from the origin is not large, the price may be affected by Malaysian seasonal inventory accumulation, Indian procurement demand fluctuations, and Indonesian biodiesel policies [13][17]. Soybean Oil - **Short - term Outlook**: The USDA August report was unexpectedly bullish, and the high - level of domestic soybean and soybean oil inventories, along with concerns about future soybean supply, lead to a short - term strong - side oscillation for soybean oil [18]. - **US Soybean Production**: The USDA August report increased the 25/26 US soybean yield but decreased the planting area by 2.5 million acres. The new - crop supply - demand has tightened, and there is a possibility of further tightening. If the yield drops to 52.5 bushels, the ending inventory will decline to a very low level of 200 million bushels [19]. - **US Soybean Demand**: In the biodiesel sector, the increase in demand for US soybean oil in biodiesel is likely, but the increase may be lower than expected. In the export sector, as of August 18, there was no news of China's resumption of US soybean purchases, which may suppress US soybean prices [20]. - **South American Soybeans**: China continues to purchase a large amount of Brazilian soybeans. If China does not buy US soybeans, the cost of Brazilian soybeans will increase, and Argentina's soybean meal may be imported in large quantities in the fourth quarter [23]. - **Domestic Situation**: From May to August, a large amount of South American soybeans entered China, leading to high inventories of domestic soybeans and soybean oil. In the short term, the supply is sufficient, but after October, if US soybeans cannot be imported, the supply will tighten, which is beneficial for soybean oil destocking [23]. Rapeseed Oil - **Price Fluctuation**: The price of rapeseed oil has fluctuated significantly due to the preliminary anti - dumping review of Canadian rapeseed. After the initial sharp rise, it declined due to the risk warning from the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and news of alternative imports [38]. - **Domestic Supply - Demand**: After August 14, the import of Canadian rapeseed will decrease significantly. Although there are plans to increase imports from other countries, they cannot fully make up for the supply shortage. The supply - demand of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil is expected to tighten, which is beneficial for price increases. However, policy adjustments and alternative imports may disrupt prices [40]. - **Impact on Canada**: China is the largest buyer of Canadian rapeseed. After the anti - dumping review, the export demand of Canadian rapeseed will face a significant decline, and the supply - demand will shift from slightly loose to significantly loose or even severely surplus, suppressing the price of Canadian rapeseed [50]. - **International Trade**: After the anti - dumping decision, China's dependence on Canadian rapeseed products will decrease, while its dependence on Australian rapeseed and rapeseed oil from other countries will increase. Canada will increase its dependence on the US, UAE, and the EU [54].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [4] Core View of the Report - Indonesia's crackdown on illegal plantations has led to a volatile and upward - trending palm oil market. The price of palm oil is affected by Indonesia's policy of confiscating illegal plantations, and the market is also influenced by factors such as the inventory and production of various oils [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,584.00 yuan/ton, a +1.31% change; the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,516.00 yuan/ton, a -0.21% change; the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,826.00 yuan/ton, a +0.71% change [1] - Spot: In Guangdong, the palm oil spot price was 9,510.00 yuan/ton, a +2.04% change; in Tianjin, the first - grade soybean oil spot price was 8,630.00 yuan/ton, a +0.12% change; in Jiangsu, the fourth - grade rapeseed oil spot price was 9,960.00 yuan/ton, a +0.91% change [1] Market Information Aggregation - As of August 18, the national imported soybean port inventory was 6.75865 million tons, a decrease of 82,400 tons from the previous week [2] - From August 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 1.78% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.51% month - on - month, and production increased by 0.88% month - on - month [2] - As of August 15, 2025, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 115,000 tons, a decrease of 23,800 tons from the previous week; the rapeseed oil inventory was 104,500 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons from the previous week; the unexecuted contracts were 82,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous week [2] - The C&F prices of Argentine soybean oil (September and November shipments) decreased, while the C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed oil (September and November shipments) increased. The C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed (October and December shipments) decreased, and the C&F prices of US and Brazilian soybeans increased [2] - The import soybean premium quotes also increased [2] Policy Impact - Indonesian President Prabowo launched a large - scale natural resource rectification campaign, confiscating 3.1 million hectares of illegal palm plantations, equivalent to 20% of the country's official total plantation area, and another 5 million hectares are under government review, causing palm oil to strengthen [3]

棕榈油供需偏紧叙事延续 油脂周报 2025/08/16 斯小伟（农产品组） 028-86133280 sxwei@wkqh.cn 从业资格号： F03114441 交易咨询号： Z0022498 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 利润库存 02 期现市场 05 成本端 03 供给端 06 需求端 市场综述：本周三大油脂整体收涨，因棕榈油预期供需偏紧、中国对加拿大菜籽征收临时保证金等利多刺激，菜油盘面冲高后在现实消费疲 软及传言澳菜籽买船背景下资金积极锁定盘面利润，外资在历史高位净多持仓量附近减仓，周尾传言印尼没收了310万公顷的非法棕榈油种 植园，棕榈油再度冲高。高频数据显示马来西亚棕榈油8月前15日出口环比增加16.5%-21.3%。东南亚棕榈油产量与销区、产地正常需求基本 维持平衡的现实延续，叠加可观察的油脂库存量也处于历年同期偏低位置，油脂强势格局暂难改变。外盘菜籽高位回落，中国加拿大贸易关 系再度紧张，也推高了国内菜油价格。 国际油脂：USDA8月月报中维持美国2025/2026年度将增加约150万吨豆油工业需求，通过豆油出口下降与压榨产出予以补充，菜油进口 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-08-15 菜籽进口结构或改变，菜油冲高回落 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约9368.00元/吨，环比变化-56元，幅度-0.59%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8520.00 元/吨，环比变化-56.00元，幅度-0.65%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9840.00元/吨，环比变化-224.00元，幅度-2.23%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9310.00元/吨，环比变化-160.00元，幅度-1.69%，现货基差P01+-58.00，环比变 化-104.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8630.00元/吨，环比变化-50.00元/吨，幅度-0.58%，现货基差Y01+110.00， 环比变化+6.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9950.00元/吨，环比变化-220.00元，幅度-2.16%，现货基差 OI01+110.00，环比变化+4.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：美湾大豆(9月船期)C&F价格460美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调3美元/吨；美西大豆(9月船 期)C&F价格454美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调3美元/吨；巴西大豆(10月船期)C&F价格4 ...

豆油：美豆偏强，豆油高位震荡 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,424 | 涨跌幅 0.66% | （夜盘） 收盘价 9,486 | 涨跌幅 0.66% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,592 | 1.23% | 8,554 | -0.44% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 10,069 | 2.72% | 9,976 | -0.92% | | | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,435 | 0.80% | 4,436 | 0.02% | | 期 货 | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 53.40 | 0.49% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 384,052 | -58978 | 226,780 | -43,883 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 183,673 | 43,470 | 261,043 | -45,207 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Yesterday, the prices of the three major oils fluctuated and rose. The market is worried that the ruling on Canadian rapeseed will increase the cost of imported rapeseed, pushing up oil prices. Coupled with the positive expectations of the palm oil B50 plan, the overall oil market is oscillating strongly [1][3] - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 10 is expected to increase significantly. India's soybean oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year are expected to soar, while palm oil and sunflower oil imports are expected to decline. China's edible vegetable oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year are estimated to be adjusted, and the supply - demand forecast for the 2025/26 fiscal year remains unchanged. Favorable rainfall in peanut - producing areas is beneficial for peanut production [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 9362.00 yuan/ton, a change of +144 yuan or +1.56%; the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8476.00 yuan/ton, a change of +36.00 yuan or +0.43%; the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9802.00 yuan/ton, a change of +214.00 yuan or +2.23% [1] - Spot: In Guangdong, the spot price of palm oil was 9320.00 yuan/ton, a change of +320.00 yuan or +3.56%, with a spot basis of P09 + - 42.00, a change of +176.00 yuan; in Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8570.00 yuan/ton, a change of +20.00 yuan/ton or +0.23%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 94.00, a change of - 16.00 yuan; in Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9910.00 yuan/ton, a change of +210.00 yuan or +2.16%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 108.00, a change of - 4.00 yuan [1] Market News - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 10 is expected to be 339,143 tons, a 65.25% increase from the same period last month [2] - China has made a preliminary ruling on anti - dumping investigations of imported rapeseed from Canada and will implement temporary anti - dumping measures in the form of deposits starting from August 14, 2025 [2] - India's soybean oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year are expected to soar 60% to 5.5 million tons, while palm oil imports may drop 13.5% to 7.8 million tons, and sunflower oil imports may drop 20% to 2.8 million tons [2] - In the 2024/25 fiscal year, China's edible vegetable oil imports are estimated to be 7.56 million tons, a decrease of 170,000 tons from the previous month's estimate. Palm oil imports are reduced by 400,000 tons, soybean oil imports by 50,000 tons, and rapeseed oil and other vegetable oil imports are increased by 100,000 tons and 180,000 tons respectively [2] - The supply - demand forecast for China's edible vegetable oil in the 2025/26 fiscal year remains unchanged from the previous month [2] - Favorable rainfall in peanut - producing areas such as Henan, Hebei, and Shandong is beneficial for peanut production [2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [4]