来源：市场资讯 （来源：海豚投研） $名创优品(MNSO.US)$名创优品(09896.HK) 北京时间 8 月 21 日下午，名创优品（9896.HK） （MNSO.N）发布了 2025 年 Q2 业绩，通过关闭低效小店、小店改大店，二季度名创集团层面同店营 收终于转为了正增长。另外，相较于上个季度飙升的销售费用，这个季度销售费用的投放环比也有所收 敛，整体业绩超出市场预期。 具体要点如下： 1、营收超出指引上限：25Q2 名创集团层面实现总营收 49.7 亿元，同比增长 23%，超过了公司此前 18%-21% 的指引上限。拆分来看，受益于 "小店改大店" 带来同店销售的改善，国内名创实现营收 28.4 亿元，同比增长 13.6%，环比稍有提速。比较亮眼的是 Top Toy 在低基数下通过快速开店实现了爆发增 长，实现营收 4 亿元，同比增长 87%。 而海外业务由于仍在转型中，实现营收 19.4 亿元，同比增长 28.6%，增速环比回落。 2、开店重回正增长。从开店数量上看，在一季度关停了大量低线城市的低店效的门店后，二季度门店 数量重新恢复增长，截至二季度末，名创新增了 30 家门店，增长的门店基本都集 ...

Core Viewpoint - The controversy surrounding Pop Mart's new flagship store in Thailand, which has been accused of resembling Miniso's store design, highlights the competitive dynamics and potential brand identity issues within the retail sector in Southeast Asia [1][9]. Group 1: Store Opening and Design - Pop Mart opened its largest global flagship store in Bangkok's ICONSIAM shopping center on August 8, covering an area of 760 square meters, inspired by Thai traditional culture and local elements [1]. - The store's design incorporates Thailand's unique "water culture" and traditional architectural language, aiming to create an inclusive atmosphere [1]. Group 2: Accusations of Similarity - Social media users have pointed out similarities between Pop Mart's new store and Miniso's MINISOLAND store in Shanghai, suggesting that Pop Mart's design may have been copied [1]. - Comparisons show both stores utilize similar vibrant color schemes and layout designs, leading to accusations of "Ctrl+V style copying" [1]. Group 3: Company Responses and Previous Issues - In response to the allegations, Pop Mart's customer service indicated that the matter is being addressed by relevant departments, while Miniso stated they would follow up if the claims are substantiated [9]. - This incident is not the first controversy for Pop Mart; a previous issue involved a social media influencer who claimed to have received products from other brands after purchasing blind boxes from Pop Mart [9]. Group 4: Financial Performance - According to Pop Mart's financial report, the company achieved a revenue of 13.04 billion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 106.9%, with overseas revenue reaching 5.07 billion yuan, a significant growth of 375% [9]. - The company emphasizes Thailand as a crucial part of its strategic expansion in Southeast Asia [9]. Group 5: Miniso's Market Position - Miniso opened its TOPTOY store in Bangkok's Siam Center in October 2024, with blind boxes contributing approximately 7% to its sales, and related IP products accounting for nearly 30% of total sales [10].

Core Viewpoint - The controversy surrounding Pop Mart's new flagship store in Thailand, which has been accused of copying Miniso's store design, has gained significant attention on social media [2][3]. Group 1: Company Developments - Pop Mart opened its largest global flagship store in Bangkok's ICONSIAM shopping center on August 8, covering an area of 760 square meters and inspired by Thai traditional culture [3]. - The store design incorporates local elements, reflecting Thailand's unique "water culture" and traditional architectural language [3]. - Pop Mart reported a revenue of 13.04 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 106.9%, with overseas revenue reaching 5.07 billion yuan, a staggering increase of 375% [4]. Group 2: Industry Context - Miniso had previously opened its TOPTOY brand store in Bangkok's Siam Center in October 2024, indicating its active presence in the Southeast Asian market [4]. - Miniso's blind box products contribute approximately 7% to its sales, with overall IP derivative products accounting for nearly 30% of total sales [4]. - The incident is not the first controversy for Pop Mart, as it faced criticism from a popular influencer regarding product authenticity, which has raised consumer trust issues [4].

Group 1: LABUBU's Market Performance - LABUBU's unique mint green collectible sold for 1.08 million yuan at an auction, highlighting its exclusivity and high demand [1] - The company's market value reached 347.5 billion HKD, with its founder Wang Ning becoming the new richest person in Henan with a net worth of 20.3 billion USD [1] - The secondary market for LABUBU products shows significant price premiums, with the hidden variant "Ben Wo" averaging 1,200 yuan, over 10 times its original price [1] Group 2: New Consumption Trends - The rise of new consumption reflects a shift from traditional value-for-money and functionality to quality and personal satisfaction, driven by technological advancements and new business models [2] - New consumption is characterized by a "consumption grading" phenomenon, where consumers are willing to pay for quality at lower prices and justified premiums [5] - The Z generation's consumption behavior, emphasizing value and quality, is a key driver of the new consumption wave [5] Group 3: Supply Side Dynamics - The supply side benefits from ongoing infrastructure improvements and increased digital R&D investments, leading to an intelligent upgrade in consumer goods [7] - Historical insights from Japan's consumption changes in the 1990s provide valuable lessons for understanding current new consumption trends [7] Group 4: Market Outlook - The current liquidity-driven environment favors high-growth assets, making new consumption a focal point for investment [8] - Performance validation through fundamental research shows promising growth potential in new consumption companies, with one leading Hong Kong stock projected to achieve a net profit of 3.125 billion yuan in 2024, a 188.77% increase [8] - New consumption is seen as a consensus direction for funds, with opportunities in both Hong Kong and A-share markets [8]

Core Viewpoint - Miniso has launched a new store format called Miniso Space in a luxury shopping mall, aiming to enhance its brand positioning and capitalize on the growing demand for IP products [1][5][11] Group 1: Store Format and Strategy - Miniso Space is the largest store format in Miniso's portfolio, focusing on high-end product offerings and located in premium shopping areas [1][11] - The store will feature a significant increase in IP product offerings, with 80% of the products being IP-related, compared to 20%-70% in other store formats [1][5] - The store's design aims to attract a specific demographic, with a focus on aesthetics and experience, leveraging a design team known for high-profile projects [7][11] Group 2: Market Positioning and Financial Goals - Miniso aims to become the world's leading IP design retail group, with a strategic plan to open 900-1100 new stores annually and achieve a compound revenue growth of at least 20% [11][19] - The company has set a monthly revenue target of 2.5-3 million yuan for the Miniso Space store to achieve profitability, which translates to approximately 100,000 yuan per day [11][12] - Recent financial performance shows a revenue of 4.427 billion yuan in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 18.89%, but a net profit decline of 28.56% due to changes in revenue structure and increased investment in new business [19] Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Challenges - The luxury retail market is facing challenges, with major players like LVMH and Kering reporting declines in revenue and profit, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [16][19] - Miniso's entry into a luxury shopping environment requires a strong marketing strategy to attract both affluent and younger consumers, balancing the appeal of high-end products with accessible pricing [14][16] - The company must navigate the complexities of operating in a high-rent area while maintaining customer engagement and repeat purchases [11][14]

Summary of the Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Cool Play (酷乐潮玩) - **Industry**: Retail, specifically in the toy and trendy goods sector Key Points and Arguments 1. **Growth Strategy**: Cool Play maintains growth through emotional consumption products and a low-price strategy during economic downturns, with rapid expansion in cities like Wuhan and Changsha in 2023, indicating its potential to navigate economic cycles [1][4] 2. **Store Expansion Plans**: After rapid expansion in 2018, the company has adopted a cautious approach post-2023, planning to open no more than 30 new stores in 2025, reflecting a conservative industry outlook on market recovery [1][9][18] 3. **Sales Recovery**: Single-store sales have recovered to approximately 90% year-on-year, with average sales per store around 410,000 to 420,000 yuan [10] 4. **Store Characteristics**: Typical store size is about 200 square meters, with 2,500 to 3,000 SKUs, primarily categorized into toys (60%), daily necessities (20%), and trendy accessories (30%) [11][12] 5. **Profit Margins**: Profit margins vary by product category, with children's toys at 40%-60%, two-dimensional products at 35%-40%, and trendy accessories potentially exceeding 60% through promotions [13] 6. **IP Product Sourcing**: The company negotiates directly with IP holders or sources from authorized small brands, with high-profile IPs generally yielding lower margins due to higher costs [14][15] 7. **Market Competitors**: Major competitors include Miniso and GARM Party, with Cool Play ranking third in sales but having a higher average sales per store compared to competitors [19][20] 8. **Profitability Comparison**: Cool Play's net profit margin is in the double digits (approximately 12%-13%), while Miniso's is around 40%, highlighting Cool Play's more conservative growth strategy without external capital [21] 9. **International Expansion**: The company is focusing on international market expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia, where sales have reached three times that of domestic sales, with plans to enter the Thai market in 2025 [22] 10. **Supply Chain Advantages**: China's supply chain complexity and efficiency provide a competitive edge, allowing brands to meet consumer demands effectively [23] Additional Important Insights 1. **Trends in the Grocery Sector**: The grocery sector in China is experiencing positive growth, particularly during economic downturns, with a focus on emotional consumption products [3] 2. **Blind Box Market Decline**: The blind box market has rapidly shrunk, with only a few brands like Pop Mart remaining active, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [27] 3. **Impact of COVID-19**: The pandemic led to a temporary closure of underperforming stores, but the subsequent drop in rental prices has created opportunities for grocery stores to expand [7][8] 4. **Consumer Behavior**: Demand for children's products remains stable despite economic fluctuations, indicating resilience in this segment [17] 5. **Future Challenges**: The retail industry faces challenges, particularly in shopping centers where rising rents may hinder growth, while smaller discount and convenience stores are expected to thrive [61]

Core Viewpoint - The company has established a strategic partnership with Bandai Namco, leading to significant expansions in retail and IP collaboration, particularly in the collectible toy market [1]. Group 1: Strategic Partnerships and Expansions - The company announced a deep strategic cooperation with Bandai Namco, leveraging the success of the Gundam pop-up store in Changsha in April 2024 [1]. - In December 2024, the company obtained distribution rights for Bandai Namco's Gundam base and related merchandise, opening the first Gundam base in Jiangsu [1]. - The company plans to open China's first Bandai model store in March 2025, featuring popular IPs such as Gundam, Pokémon, and Doraemon [1]. Group 2: Business Performance and Growth Strategy - The company achieved a breakthrough in cross-industry collaboration in 2024, expanding into the trendy toy consumption sector [1]. - The company will implement a dual-track expansion strategy focusing on "core regional cities + key business districts," with initial plans to enter high-quality commercial spaces in Changsha [1]. - Over the next three years, the company aims to expand its national presence at a rate of 3-5 new stores annually, enhancing store profitability through digital operations and limited product strategies [1]. Group 3: Revenue Performance of Gundam Base Stores - The Suzhou Gundam base store, which opened in December 2024, has exceeded expectations in its first five months of operation [2]. - The store achieved industry benchmark levels in single-store sales efficiency and demonstrated high member repurchase rates, indicating strong IP loyalty [2]. - The store has already reached profitability in its first quarter of operation [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant divergence in stock performance between two companies in the IP economy and emotional consumption sectors, namely Pop Mart and Miniso, highlighting the challenges faced by Miniso despite its strong revenue growth [1][2][5][30]. Group 1: Company Performance - Pop Mart's stock price has risen above 200 HKD, with a market capitalization exceeding 300 billion HKD and a year-to-date increase of over 150%, establishing it as the leading player in the trendy toy sector [3]. - In contrast, Miniso's stock has dropped over 25% this year, with its market cap falling below 50 billion HKD, and a recent earnings report led to a single-day stock drop of 18.22%, resulting in a nearly 10 billion HKD loss in market value [5][8]. Group 2: Financial Results - Miniso reported its best-ever performance in 2024, achieving a revenue of 16.994 billion RMB and a net profit of 2.618 billion RMB, which are impressive figures compared to its peers [9]. - For Q1 2025, Miniso's revenue reached 4.43 billion RMB, a 19% year-on-year increase, surpassing initial expectations [11]. - However, the adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was 587.2 million RMB, falling short of the forecasted 661.3 million RMB, indicating a profit margin decline of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [15]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The domestic IP retail market is becoming increasingly competitive, with brands like KKV and Green Party expanding aggressively, which is squeezing Miniso's market share [20]. - In Q1 2025, Miniso's domestic revenue grew by only 9% to 2.49 billion RMB, significantly lagging behind the 30% growth in its overseas business [21]. - The increase in direct store operations has led to higher rental and labor costs, further pressuring Miniso's profitability [21]. Group 4: IP Strategy and Challenges - Miniso's strategy of collaborating with various IPs has not significantly enhanced its product value or brand appeal, as evidenced by the limited contribution of its IP products to overall profits [25][28]. - The company has been heavily reliant on external IP sourcing, which poses risks such as high costs and potential inventory issues, as seen with the underperformance of the Harry Potter IP products [44][45]. - The lack of successful original IPs remains a critical shortcoming for Miniso, which contrasts with Pop Mart's success in creating popular original characters [32][50]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article suggests that while Miniso's stock has dropped, its valuation has returned to a relatively low level of 16 times PE, indicating potential long-term investment value given its ongoing expansion and brand strength [62]. - For Miniso to regain market trust, it must move beyond a cost-effective strategy and develop more of its own successful IPs to enhance store efficiency and maintain profitability [63].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry and Company Involved - The focus is on the toy and collectibles industry, specifically the company Pop Mart, known for its IP-driven products and collectibles. Core Points and Arguments - **Global Expansion of IP Brands**: Pop Mart is experiencing a surge in demand in North America, marking a critical point for globalizing its IP brands. The Labubu gradient vinyl figure 3.0 has seen a significant price increase to $27.99, which is a 27% rise compared to previous versions [1][2]. - **Response to Tariff Concerns**: The company has developed strategies to mitigate concerns regarding tariffs, suggesting that the situation may improve [3]. - **Growth Drivers**: The past two years of growth for Pop Mart can be attributed to a combination of IP, product, and channel expansion, leading to non-linear, exponential growth. The company's platform capabilities for IP are continuously improving, with successful IPs like Starry People and Zsiga emerging [3]. - **Market Potential in Toy Retail**: The collectible toy retail market still has significant growth potential, with limitless possibilities for IP derivatives. For instance, LEGO reported approximately 80 billion RMB in revenue in 2024, while Disney's experience business generated $9.3 billion [3]. - **North American Market Development**: Pop Mart's presence in North America is becoming clearer, with single-store operations proving successful in Q4 2024. The company has opened over 150 retail stores overseas, with more than 40 in the U.S. by Q2, an increase of over 10 stores since the beginning of the year [3]. - **Future IP Opportunities**: Looking ahead, Pop Mart's IP capabilities could expand into various sectors such as theme parks, dining, gaming, film, and education, indicating a significant potential for growth [3]. - **Product Development**: In Q2, Pop Mart has launched several key products, indicating ongoing improvements in product strength and variety [3]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Product Popularity**: The Labubu gradient vinyl figure and other product lines, such as the Zsiga forest walking series and the Starry People jewelry series, are gaining traction, with notable social media engagement [4]. - **Anticipated Media Releases**: There are expectations for upcoming animated shorts featuring Labubu and Starry People during the summer, which could further enhance brand visibility and engagement [4].

Core Insights - A significant event occurred as BeeQiao Capital liquidated its entire stake in Pop Mart, cashing out approximately HKD 2.2 billion [2] - The founder of BeeQiao Capital, Tu Zheng, was one of the earliest investors to recognize the potential of Pop Mart [2][4] - Pop Mart's stock has seen a dramatic increase since its IPO, with a maximum rise of over 10 times, and its current market capitalization stands at HKD 240 billion [4] Company Performance - Pop Mart reported a revenue of CNY 13.04 billion for 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 106.9%, with a net profit of CNY 3.4 billion, up 185.9% [5] - The revenue from mainland China reached CNY 7.97 billion, a 52.3% increase, while overseas and Hong Kong/Macau revenue surged to CNY 5.07 billion, growing by 375.2% [5] - In Q1 2025, Pop Mart's revenue is projected to grow by 165%-170%, with mainland revenue increasing by 95%-100% and overseas revenue by 475%-480% [5] Investment Background - Tu Zheng's initial investment in Pop Mart was made at an estimated valuation of CNY 80 million, where he invested CNY 6 million [4] - After the establishment of BeeQiao Capital in 2018, it collaborated with other investors to inject CNY 40 million into Pop Mart [4] - The decision to liquidate the stake coincided with Pop Mart's peak performance since its inception [4]