分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -4% 3% 10% 17% 25% 32% 39% 47% 2025.01 2025.05 2025.09 2026.01 上证指数 深证成指 证券研究报告-晨会聚焦 发布日期：2026 年 01 月 13 日 【财经要闻】 1、1 月 10 日至 11 日，全国商务工作会议在京召开。会议明确，2026 年 全国商务系统要重点做好八个方面工作。会议要求，深入实施提振消费专 项行动，打造"购在中国"品牌。加快培育服务消费新增长点，释放服务 消费潜力。优化消费品以旧换新政策实施，推动商品消费扩容升级。打造 国际化消费环境。发展数字消费、绿色消费、健康消费，激发下沉市场消 费活力。 2、为加速人工智能与实体经济融合，推动制造业的智能化变革，工信部 等八部门近日联合印发了《"人工智能+制造"专项行动实施意见》。《意 见》围绕创新筑基、赋智升级、产品突破、主体培育等方面部署七大重点 任务，促进人工智能技术与制造业应用双向赋能，加快制造业智能化、绿 色化、融合 ...

熊婧妍 证券分析师执业证书编号：S0740523110005 邮 箱：xiongjy01@zts.comn 中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 ｜ 证 券 研 究 报 告 ｜ PPI筑底，布局景气修复 ——中泰时钟资产配置月报(2601) 2026.01.05 李倩云 证券分析师执业证书编号：S0740520050001 邮 箱：liqy02@zts.com 二、资产状态及宏观驱动 目录 CONTENTS 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 一、2026年通胀及受益板块预测 三、从宏观和资金视角看风偏的持续性 四、风格配置 五、行业配置 要点简述 风险提示：本报告基于公开历史数据进行统计测算，存在数据滞后性、第三方数据提供不准确风险；历史规律可能失效，模型基于历史数据得到统计结论不能完全代表未来，在 极端情形下或存在解释力不足的风险；宏观政策超预期变动及海外因素扰动或对模型结论有较大影响 n 2026年上半年PPI或缓慢回升至零轴附近：AR-gap（包含通胀的动量效应和通胀缺口影响）和菲利普斯曲线模型（包含宏观变量影 响），均预测2026 ...

晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -5% 1% 7% 14% 20% 26% 33% 39% 2025.01 2025.05 2025.09 2025.12 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 3,968.84 | 0.09 | | 深证成指 | | 13,525.02 | -0.58 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,629.94 | -0.46 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 4,486.47 | -0.62 | | 中证 500 | | 7,465.57 | 0.09 | | 中证 1000 | | 6,116.76 | 0.33 | | 国证 2000 | | 7,801.23 | 0.58 | | 资料来源：聚 ...

Macro Economic Overview - The report indicates a downward trend in the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.59% this week, while the CSI 300 index futures decreased by 0.06% [1][11] - The report highlights a mixed performance in commodity futures, with coking coal futures down by 0.76% and iron ore futures up by 2.00% [1][11] - The yield on ten-year government bonds increased by 1 basis point to 1.85%, while active ten-year government bond futures dropped by 0.36% [1][11] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended order for asset allocation is equities > commodities > bonds > currency, reflecting a positive outlook on A-shares and stable bond yields [2][4] - The report suggests that the U.S. dollar's safe-haven status is weakening, prompting international capital to seek alternatives, with RMB assets being a top choice due to their stability and growth potential [2][4] - The report anticipates that commodity prices will be influenced by supply pressures in oil and demand dynamics in cyclical goods, while agricultural products will be affected by supply factors [2][4] Key Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for December was reported at 50.1, indicating a slight expansion, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.2, returning to the expansion zone [18] - The report notes that the upcoming National People's Congress will convene on March 4, 2026, which may influence economic policies [18][19] Market Performance Insights - The report details a significant decline in the real estate market, with a notable drop in transaction volumes for new homes in major cities, indicating potential market stabilization due to recent policy changes [36][41] - The automotive sector is experiencing a downturn, with wholesale and retail sales of passenger vehicles showing negative growth for four consecutive weeks [36][41] Bond Market Analysis - The yield on ten-year government bonds has risen to 1.85%, with a noted increase in the yield of ten-year policy bank bonds to 2.00% [46] - The report highlights a significant rise in yields for low-rated credit bonds, indicating a shift in market sentiment [46]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 12 26 年 月 日 量化分析报告 攻守兼备，穿越周期——华夏中证 A500ETF 基金投资价值分析 中证 A500 是适合作为风险分散的配置资产 1）中证 A500 指数未来一年预期收益为 12.9%。我们对各分项进行预 测并加总得到：未来一年中证 A500 预期收益为 12.9%，其中盈利预计有 较强支撑，贡献 8.7%的收益，估值项预测仍有 3%的上涨空间。 中证 500ESG 基准指数和中证 500 指数基日以来累计收益分别为 3.96% 和 2.42%，ESG 负面剔除后的指数超额收益显著，且年化波动率更低。 3）指数成分股：大市值、高流动性。中证 A500 指数前十大成分股龙头集 中度高，新经济与传统经济均衡配置，充分体现 A500 指数"大盘蓝筹 + 行业龙头"的编制特征。从中证 A500 指数成分股中信一级行业分布来看， 主要集中在电子、电力设备及新能源、银行、有色金属、医药等行业。中 证 A500 指数成分股在行业龙头、陆股通重仓、核心资产、基金重仓、成 交主力等概念的暴露较高，具备较好的市场流动性和较高的机构认可度。 华夏中 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 股指反弹持续，贵金属小幅回调 ——中信期货晨报20251226 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | | | 金融市场涨跌幅 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现金 | | | 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 李度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 | | | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 | 4610.6 | 0.344 | 1.85% | 3.09% | -0.16% | 11729X | | | 上证50期货 | 3034 | 0 23% | 0.92% | 2.53% | 1.51% | 13.29% | | | 中证500期货 | 7320.6 | 1 00 00 % | 3.76% | 7.64% | 0.41% | 28 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of the A-share market, with a focus on sectors such as aerospace, robotics, and general equipment, indicating potential investment opportunities in these areas [5][7][8][9][10]. - The animation film industry is experiencing significant growth, with domestic animated films accounting for nearly 50% of total box office revenue in 2025, showcasing a shift from a niche category to a major player in the film market [13][14][15]. - The automotive industry is maintaining good growth, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, with a notable increase in production and sales, indicating a robust market outlook [17][18][21]. - The semiconductor industry continues to show strong demand, driven by AI and cloud computing, with significant growth in global semiconductor sales and a positive outlook for the sector [32][33]. Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,959.62, with a slight increase of 0.47%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.33% to 13,531.41 [3]. - The average price-to-earnings ratio for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices is at 16.19 and 49.94, respectively, indicating a favorable long-term investment environment [7][8][9]. Industry Analysis Animation Film Industry - In 2025, animated films accounted for over 250 billion yuan in box office revenue, representing nearly 50% of the total market share, with top films like "Nezha 2" and "Zootopia 2" leading the charge [13][14]. - The influence of domestic animated films is on the rise, with a significant increase in box office share from 32.28% (2013-2019) to 67.59% (2019-2025) [15]. Automotive Industry - In November, the automotive sector saw production and sales reach 3.53 million and 3.43 million vehicles, respectively, marking a month-on-month increase of 5.15% and 3.22% [17]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 53.16%, with production and sales of 1.88 million and 1.82 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.03% and 20.59% [18][21]. Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a robust growth cycle, with global sales increasing by 27.2% year-on-year in October 2025, driven by strong demand for AI computing hardware [32][33]. - The introduction of new models like Google's Gemini 3 is expected to reshape the competitive landscape in the AI sector, highlighting the importance of semiconductor technology in future developments [33]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as aerospace, robotics, and electric vehicles for short-term investment opportunities, while also highlighting the animation film industry as a growing area of interest [5][7][18]. - In the semiconductor sector, companies involved in AI and cloud computing technologies are recommended for investment due to their strong growth potential [32][33].

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -12% -6% -1% 5% 11% 17% 23% 29% 2024.12 2025.04 2025.08 2025.12 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 3,940.95 | 0.53 | | 深证成指 | | 13,486.42 | 0.88 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,634.06 | 0.29 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 4,497.15 | 0.18 | | 中证 | 500 | 7,352.04 | 1.31 | | 中证 | 1000 | ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：Wind,中原证券 -11% -5% 1% 7% 13% 18% 24% 30% 2024.12 2025.04 2025.08 2025.12 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 3,919.98 | 0.07 | | 深证成指 | | 13,368.99 | 0.27 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,620.73 | 0.20 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 4,488.88 | 0.38 | | 中证 | 500 | 7,256.79 | 0.02 | | 中证 | 1000 | 6 ...

Group 1 - UBS analysts predict that the US stock market will remain tense in 2024 due to investor concerns about missing out on AI gains and fears of a potential bubble, with volatility expected to continue until 2026 [1] - Goldman Sachs forecasts a 14% growth in Chinese corporate earnings in 2024, which could boost stock market performance, with a potential 10% valuation re-rating and a projected 38% increase in the Chinese stock market by 2027 [1] - JPMorgan expects the Bank of Japan to continue raising interest rates to address concerns over the weak yen, predicting two rate hikes in 2024, reaching a policy rate of 1.25% by the end of 2026 [1] Group 2 - Nomura's report indicates uncertainty regarding the specific level that would trigger intervention by Japanese authorities, but bold actions may be imminent as the yen strengthens [2] - Danske Bank analysts suggest that the euro may strengthen against the dollar in the medium term due to anticipated Fed rate cuts and stable ECB rates, with a narrowing gap in real interest rates benefiting the euro [2] Group 3 - CICC emphasizes the importance of policy measures to boost consumption, noting that the macroeconomic backdrop has weakened consumer recovery, but signals of support for domestic demand could lead to a turnaround [3] - China Merchants Bank reports that Japan's interest rate hike may exert pressure on global financial conditions, with a potential long-term impact on liquidity and bond markets [4] - CITIC Securities highlights the need to focus on changes in consumer structure for long-term investment, with an emphasis on new products, technologies, channels, and markets [5][6] Group 4 - CITIC Securities anticipates a mild reduction in policy rates in 2026, with a potential decrease of 10 basis points in one to two instances, which could stabilize bank net interest margins [7] - CITIC Securities continues to favor the AI computing sector, noting strong demand for computing power as AI models evolve [8] - CITIC Securities reports that the US CPI has unexpectedly cooled, which may lead to an upward revision of Fed rate cut expectations, positively impacting precious and industrial metal prices [9] Group 5 - China Securities expects listed insurance companies to achieve double-digit growth in core premium income and value in 2026, driven by asset reallocation and a favorable equity market [10] - Huatai Securities suggests continuing to position for a spring market rally, focusing on sectors like AI, batteries, and consumer goods that are expected to improve [11]