行 业 研 究 7 月社零同比+3.7%，金银珠宝和化妆品环比改善 ——行业点评报告 | 黄泽鹏（分析师） | 陈思（联系人） | 姚慕宇（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | huangzepeng@kysec.cn | chensi@kysec.cn | yaomuyu@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790519110001 | 证书编号：S0790124070031 | 证书编号：S0790125040021 | 2025 年 7 月社零同比+3.7%，社会消费维持稳健增长 国家统计局发布 2025 年 1-7 月社会消费品零售总额（下简称"社零"）数据：1-7 月社零总额为 284238 亿元（同比+4.8%，下同），其中 7 月社零总额为 38780 亿 元（+3.7%，Wind 一致预期为+4.9%）。分地域看，1-7 月城镇/乡村社零同比分别 +4.8%/+4.7%。我们认为，国补支持继续对终端消费发挥效用，7 月整体零售维 持稳健增长，结构上有所分化，期待后续消费动能进一步激发。 必选品类中粮油食品韧性更强，可选品类中金银珠宝、化妆品环比提速 价格因素方面，7 月 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the emerging opportunities and challenges for Chinese brands entering the Southeast Asian offline retail market, emphasizing the need for localization and understanding regional differences [1][3][9] Group 1: Event Overview - The event titled "Opportunities and Challenges for Overseas Brands in Southeast Asian Offline Channels" is scheduled for July 31, from 14:00 to 17:00 in Shenzhen [3][8] - The event aims to provide practical insights rather than theoretical discussions, focusing on real business practices in Southeast Asia [1][5] Group 2: Key Discussion Topics - The first topic will analyze the regional differences and commonalities in offline channels across major markets like Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia [3][9] - The second topic will explore the changing consumer behaviors in Southeast Asia and identify categories experiencing explosive growth in offline retail [4][9] - The third topic will discuss effective online and offline integration strategies, sharing localized case studies from Southeast Asia [4][9] - The fourth topic will cover the expansion strategies and paths for Chinese consumer brands in Southeast Asia, including collaboration with local agents or building in-house teams [4][9] Group 3: Target Audience and Participation - The event is designed for high-level decision-makers and aims to facilitate strategic networking opportunities [5][15] - Participation is limited, with a ticket price of 888 yuan per person, emphasizing the exclusivity of the event [12][15]

Investment Rating - The report rates the stock of Beilingsong as "Accumulate" with projected EPS of 0.12 in 2024 and increasing to 0.93 by 2027, indicating a significant growth potential [5]. Core Insights - The service retail sector in China is poised for substantial growth, with a market size reaching 7 trillion yuan, driven by digitalization and changing consumer preferences [21][26]. - The report emphasizes the necessity for offline retail to adapt to the challenges posed by e-commerce, highlighting the importance of unique value propositions and customer experiences [27][32]. - Successful new consumption models must focus on high customer unit prices and integrate products with services to enhance consumer engagement and brand loyalty [2][3]. Summary by Sections Service Retail: A Trillion-Yuan Blue Ocean - China's service retail development level is relatively low, with a GDP contribution of only 56.7% in 2024, compared to 60%-80% in developed countries [10][13]. - The per capita service consumption expenditure in China is projected to reach 46.1% of total consumption in 2024, indicating significant room for growth [10][21]. - The rise of digital platforms has transformed consumer experiences, leading to an exponential increase in service retail market size [25][26]. Offline Retail: Challenges and Breakthroughs - Offline retail faces significant challenges due to e-commerce competition, leading to high fixed costs and product homogenization [27][32]. - Retail models that can achieve high gross margins and customer loyalty are more likely to succeed in the current market [33][36]. New Players in Service Retail - New retail players are emerging by focusing on niche markets and addressing unmet consumer needs, such as the rise of beauty and wellness services [38][39]. - Companies like Xila and Beilingsong are leveraging standardized service models and clear franchise systems to facilitate rapid expansion [46][49]. Key Company Analysis - Beilingsong is transitioning its business model to include both technology products and quick-effect massage services, aiming to enhance customer experience and brand loyalty [4]. - Xila is expanding into scalp care, leveraging its strong brand and supply chain capabilities to become a preferred service provider for families [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the rapid development of the "New Oxygen Youth Clinic" and the significant changes in the shareholding structure of "Beautiful Garden" following the exit of major shareholder CPE [5][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes and recommends high-quality companies in high-growth sectors [8][29] Summary by Sections Retail Market Overview - The retail industry index closed at 2152.72 points, down 0.16%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which rose by 1.40% [7][14] - The retail sector has seen a decline of 3.85% year-to-date [14][17] Industry Dynamics - CPE plans to sell approximately 51.33 million shares (about 21.77%) of "Beautiful Garden," leading to a significant change in the company's shareholding structure [5][24] - "New Oxygen" has transformed from an online platform to a chain of clinics, with a 551% year-on-year increase in revenue for its chain business in Q1 2025 [5][27] Investment Recommendations - Investment Theme 1: Focus on differentiated product capabilities and consumer insights in the gold and jewelry sector, recommending companies like "Old Shop Gold," "Chao Hong Ji," and "Zhou Dafu" [8][29] - Investment Theme 2: Emphasize retail companies that actively adapt to trends, recommending "Yonghui Supermarket" and "Aiying Room" [8][29] - Investment Theme 3: Highlight domestic beauty brands with strong differentiation, recommending "Mao Ge Ping," "Po Lai Ya," and "Shang Mei" [8][30] - Investment Theme 4: Focus on differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers, recommending "Ai Mei Ke" and "Ke Di-B" [8][30] Company-Specific Insights - "Zhou Dafu" reported a revenue of 896.56 million HKD for FY2025, down 17.5%, with a focus on improving product structure and store quality [36][37] - "Old Shop Gold" achieved a revenue of 8.506 billion CNY for FY2024, up 167.5%, with a strong brand expansion strategy [31][32] - "Chao Hong Ji" reported a revenue of 2.252 billion CNY in Q1 2025, up 25.4%, driven by differentiated product offerings [39][40] - "Zhou Da Sheng" faced revenue pressure with a 47.3% decline in Q1 2025, but future growth potential is anticipated through brand optimization [42]

Core Viewpoint - The rise of esports events is becoming a new platform for offline retail to attract young consumers, with the first "Suning Cup" Honor of Kings Super League taking place from July 11 to August 18, featuring over 2,000 teams competing for a grand prize of 100,000 yuan [1][2]. Group 1: Event Overview - The tournament consists of three stages: preliminary rounds, qualifying rounds, and finals, with over 10,000 participants expected across 64 stores in 40 cities [2]. - The final championship will take place from August 15 to 18, with the winning team receiving a 100,000 yuan prize and the runner-up receiving 50,000 yuan [2]. Group 2: Retail Strategy - Suning aims to enhance the in-store experience by upgrading esports zones, including professional battle areas and large screen live broadcasts, to meet consumer demands for immersive gaming experiences [2][3]. - The event will also feature over 100 offline activities, such as "Coser parades" and "3C product showcases," to create a social and engaging environment [2][3]. Group 3: Market Insights - According to the "2024 China Esports Industry Report," the number of esports users in China has reached 490 million, providing significant opportunities for the retail sector to connect with consumers [2]. - The shift in consumer behavior from merely purchasing products to seeking experiences and atmospheres necessitates deeper immersive experiences from retail formats [3]. Group 4: Participation and Registration - Registration for the tournament is open through the Suning app and mini-programs, allowing participants to sign up for local competitions at designated Suning stores [6][7]. - The event will take place in major cities including Nanjing, Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen, among others [7].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights Alibaba's recent return to the Limited Partner (LP) role in venture capital, marking a shift in its investment strategy amidst a challenging fundraising environment in the primary market [2] - Alibaba's venture capital arm invested 140 million yuan in "Infinite Sailing Haihe (Tianjin) Venture Capital Partnership," indicating a strategic move to re-enter the investment landscape [2] - The partnership includes notable investors such as Sequoia China, suggesting a collaborative approach to funding new ventures [2] Group 2 - Over the past few years, Alibaba has significantly divested non-core assets, including the sale of its controlling stake in Sun Art Retail Group for approximately 13.1 billion HKD, signaling a retreat from the offline retail sector [6] - The company also transferred part of its stake in Intime Retail for around 7.4 billion yuan, further shedding its retail business [6] - These asset disposals have generated over 20 billion yuan in cash, providing Alibaba with the necessary capital for new strategic initiatives [6] Group 3 - Alibaba's asset disposal strategy reflects a conscious exit from high-investment, low-return traditional industries, reallocating capital towards core areas such as cloud computing, e-commerce, and technological innovation [7] - The return to the LP role is characterized by a more modest approach, leveraging higher financial leverage to tap into future growth potential [7] - This shift is interpreted by industry insiders as a move towards sustainable growth, focusing on efficiency and risk management while exploring investments in AI and robotics [7]

Core Insights - Alibaba's 2025 fiscal year report indicates a significant restructuring of its partnership system, reducing the number of partners from 26 to 17, signaling the end of an era led by the founding team [1][5] - The company is focusing on core businesses, particularly e-commerce and AI, with a planned investment of 380 billion yuan over the next three years [1][6] - The shift in partnership reflects a transition to younger leadership, emphasizing frontline business decision-makers [5][6] Financial Performance - For the 2025 fiscal year, Alibaba reported total revenue of 996.347 billion yuan, with a net profit increase of 77% to 125.976 billion yuan [6] - The AI-related products revenue has shown triple-digit year-on-year growth for seven consecutive quarters, indicating strong demand in this sector [6] Business Strategy - Alibaba has exited non-core assets such as Gao Xin Retail and Intime Department Store, focusing on its core business and increasing strategic investments in AI [6][8] - The company has seen a 6% year-on-year increase in customer management revenue (CMR) for its Taotian business, with the 88VIP membership base exceeding 50 million [6][8][7] - Recent organizational changes, including the merger of Ele.me and Fliggy into Alibaba's China e-commerce division, aim to enhance competitiveness against rivals like Meituan and JD.com [6]

Group 1 - The core theme of the event was the transformation of global retail and supply chains, highlighting the challenges faced by traditional retailers in the U.S. due to high interest rates, tariff costs, and inventory reduction pressures [3][4] - Many traditional retailers, such as Walmart and Home Depot, are experiencing significant cash flow issues and high debt levels, which hinder their ability to stock up and respond to market fluctuations, leading to an accelerated industry reshuffle [3][4] - The competition logic in e-commerce has fundamentally shifted from merely being "cheaper" to "cheaper and faster," presenting a historic opportunity for online sellers to capture market share [3][4] Group 2 - Amazon's logistics strategy, particularly its "distributed warehouse" model, has redefined competition by focusing on "inventory proximity" rather than just product pricing, emphasizing the importance of delivery speed and cost efficiency [4] - Cross-border sellers are advised to prioritize cash flow management and prepare for strategic contraction in the short term, while in the long term, they should embrace changes by establishing local buffer warehouses and optimizing multi-regional warehouse layouts [4] - The company, Zongteng Group, has over 2.3 million square meters of overseas warehouses and is investing in robotic smart warehouses to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, aligning with the future trends of supply chains [4][5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The 618 shopping festival saw a total e-commerce sales of 855.6 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.2% [23][24] - The beauty sector performed well during the 618 festival, with total GMV across four major platforms reaching 65.9 billion yuan, growing over 10% year-on-year [23][24] - International high-end beauty brands showed signs of recovery, with brands like Lancôme and Estée Lauder maintaining strong positions on platforms like Tmall and Douyin [32] Summary by Sections Retail Market Overview - The retail industry index closed at 2062.20 points, down 2.75% for the week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.24 percentage points [5][14] - The retail sector has seen a year-to-date decline of 7.89%, lagging behind the overall market performance [14][17] 618 Shopping Festival Insights - The 618 shopping festival was extended to the longest duration in history, from May 13 to June 20, 2025 [23] - Tmall's GMV during the festival grew by 10%, marking the largest increase in three years, with 453 brands achieving over 100 million yuan in sales [24][29] - Douyin's e-commerce saw over 60,000 brands doubling their sales, with more than 2,000 products exceeding 10 million yuan in sales [24][29] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-quality companies in high-growth sectors driven by emotional consumption themes, particularly in gold and jewelry, offline retail, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics [6][35] - Recommended companies include Lao Pu Gold, Chao Hong Ji, Mao Ge Ping, and Pei Lai Ya, among others [38] Company Performance Highlights - Lao Pu Gold reported a revenue of 8.506 billion yuan for FY2024, up 167.5%, with a net profit increase of 253.9% [37] - Mao Ge Ping achieved a revenue of 3.885 billion yuan for FY2024, growing by 34.6%, with a net profit increase of 33% [37] - Pei Lai Ya's revenue for 2024 was 10.778 billion yuan, up 21%, with a net profit increase of 30% [37]

Core Viewpoint - The retail industry is undergoing significant transformation through the upgrade of offline stores, driven by diverse consumer demands, with Wumart Group leading this change by launching its second batch of self-reformed stores [1] Group 1: Store Upgrades - Wumart Group's Daxing Huangcun store features "AI New Quality Retail" as its core, implementing multi-dimensional upgrades and introducing various AI technologies for smart management [1] - The AI dynamic pricing system adjusts prices based on the production time of products, with discounts applied to ready-to-eat items after specific time intervals [1] - The cold chain control system monitors temperature and humidity in real-time to ensure the safety of low-temperature products throughout the storage and transportation process [1] Group 2: Consumer Experience - The store redesign emphasizes creating a scene-based experience, incorporating regional specialty snacks and freshly made tofu, enhancing the shopping atmosphere [1] - The layout has been optimized for better customer flow, and the workforce has been modernized with a focus on younger employees and improved benefits [1] Group 3: Product Structure Optimization - The product structure has been significantly adjusted, with a focus on high-selling items from each brand, leading to notable sales increases in categories like department stores and fresh produce [2] - Wumart Group is accelerating the iteration of its private label brands, expanding product lines while ensuring quality through partnerships with other brands [2] Group 4: Supply Chain and Expansion Strategy - The company is transitioning to a self-built supply chain, enhancing product quality through standardized processes and fresh ingredient selection [2] - Wumart Group plans to renovate 25 to 30 stores nationwide this year, evaluating existing locations based on market conditions and customer demographics [2]