Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs raised the target price for SMIC's H-shares by 15% to HKD 73.1, driven by optimism regarding China's IC design demand and AI trends, which are expected to strongly support SMIC's production and average selling prices [1][2] Group 1: Financial Projections - Goldman Sachs maintained a buy rating on SMIC while adjusting revenue and earnings per share forecasts for 2028 and 2029, with EPS estimates increased by 3% and 7%, and revenue forecasts raised by 0.4% and 2% respectively [1] - The revenue guidance for Q3 2025 is expected to grow by 5%-7% quarter-on-quarter, which could act as a short-term catalyst for the stock price [2] Group 2: Market Trends and Demand - The optimistic outlook is primarily based on the rapid growth in AI application demand and the increasing need for advanced process technology from local chip design companies in China [2] - The ongoing growth in domestic integrated circuit design demand is anticipated to provide more order opportunities for SMIC [1] Group 3: Operational Performance - SMIC has demonstrated robust financial performance, with a 22.0% year-on-year revenue increase to USD 4.456 billion in the first half of 2025, a gross margin of 21.4%, and a net margin of 10.5% [2] - The revenue from wafer foundry services grew by 24.6% year-on-year to USD 4.229 billion, attributed to increased wafer sales, rising average selling prices, and changes in product mix [2] Group 4: Capacity Expansion and Structural Optimization - SMIC is actively expanding its capacity and optimizing its product structure, adding nearly 20,000 pieces of 12-inch standard logic monthly capacity in the first half of the year [3] - The revenue structure shows significant contributions from consumer electronics, smartphones, and industrial and automotive applications, with the latter's share increasing from 7.7% to 10.1% year-on-year [3] - The share of 12-inch wafer revenue rose from 74.5% to 77.1% year-on-year, indicating a continuous optimization towards advanced processes [3]

Market Overview - U.S. stock index futures showed mixed performance before the market opened, with Dow futures down 0.13%, S&P 500 futures up 0.39%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.37% [1] - European indices also experienced slight gains, with Germany's DAX up 0.01%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.21%, France's CAC40 up 0.44%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.26% [2][3] Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil increased by 0.97%, reaching $63.24 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by 0.92% to $67.00 per barrel [3][4] Economic Data and Predictions - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for August is expected to remain at 3.3% year-on-year, with core PPI anticipated to drop from 3.7% to 3.5% [5] - Analysts predict that if PPI data rises unexpectedly, it could alleviate recent bearish sentiment towards the dollar and suppress gold prices [5] - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to show a significant increase, but market analysts believe it will not lead to major stock market fluctuations due to the focus on employment data [6] Company News - Oracle (ORCL.US) reported a significant increase in cloud orders, with a total of $500 billion in contracts, leading to a stock price surge of 31.97% [8] - Synopsys (SNPS.US) experienced a pre-market stock drop of 23.27% after reporting Q3 earnings and guidance that fell short of expectations [9] - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) reported an impressive 34% year-on-year revenue growth in August, driven by strong demand for AI chips [10] - Google Cloud announced it has $106 billion in unfulfilled contracts, with expectations of generating $58 billion in revenue from these contracts over the next two years [11] - Apple (AAPL.US) introduced significant updates to its smartwatch line, including blood pressure monitoring and satellite communication features [12] - Microsoft (MSFT.US) is reportedly planning to integrate Anthropic's AI technology into Office 365, potentially replacing some of OpenAI's technology [13]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the rapid growth of Jinghe Integrated Circuit's performance in the first half of 2025, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit, driven by higher sales volume and improved production efficiency [2][9]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 5.198 billion yuan, an 18.21% increase compared to 4.398 billion yuan in the same period of 2024 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 332 million yuan, marking a 77.61% increase from 187 million yuan in the first half of 2024 [2]. - The increase in net profit and non-recurring net profit is attributed to revenue growth, high capacity utilization, reduced unit sales costs, and improved gross profit margins [2]. Market Position - The company holds a leading position in the global market for LCD panel display driver chip foundry, ranking ninth globally and third among mainland Chinese companies [3]. - The company is actively expanding into the OLED display driver chip foundry market, with expectations of increasing shipment volumes as OLED panel demand rises [3][4]. Product Development - The company has successfully commenced mass production of its 40nm high-voltage OLED display driver chips and is making progress on the 28nm OLED display driver chips, which are expected to enter risk production by the end of 2025 [4]. - The company’s CIS products cover process nodes from 90nm to 55nm, with the 55nm CIS chips being widely used in smartphone cameras [6]. Industry Trends - The global CIS market is projected to grow to 27 billion USD by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 6% from 2023 to 2029, driven by demand in smartphones and the automotive sector [5]. - The company is enhancing its product variety and optimizing its product structure to improve gross profit levels, with a significant portion of revenue coming from DDIC and CIS products [7]. Investment Outlook - Revenue projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 11.169 billion yuan, 12.715 billion yuan, and 14.184 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 990 million yuan, 1.297 billion yuan, and 1.485 billion yuan [9].

Core Insights - The wafer foundry revenue is projected to exceed $41.7 billion in Q2 2025, marking a record high with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 14.6% [1] Group 1: Company Performance - TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) leads the market with a revenue of $30.24 billion in Q2 2025, reflecting an 18.5% increase from the previous quarter and a market share of 70.2% [2][3] - Samsung reported a revenue of approximately $3.16 billion in Q2 2025, with a quarter-over-quarter growth of 9.2%, holding a market share of 7.3% [2][3] - SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation) experienced a slight decline in revenue, down 1.7% to around $2.21 billion, with a market share of 5.1% [2][3] - UMC (United Microelectronics Corporation) saw an 8.2% increase in revenue to $1.90 billion, achieving a market share of 4.4% [2][3] - GlobalFoundries reported a revenue increase of 6.5% to nearly $1.69 billion, with a market share of 3.9% [2][3] - Other companies in the top ten include Huahong Group, Vanguard, Tower, Nexchip, and PSMC, with varying revenue growth rates [2][3] Group 2: Market Trends - The second quarter of 2025 is expected to benefit from pre-stockpiling effects due to consumer subsidies in the Chinese market, alongside demand for new smartphones, laptops, and servers [3] - The overall wafer foundry capacity utilization and shipment volume are anticipated to strengthen, driven by seasonal demand for new products and high-priced wafers [4] - The third quarter is projected to see continued revenue growth, supported by new product launches and increased orders for advanced and mature process nodes [4]

Core Insights - The wafer foundry revenue is projected to exceed $41.7 billion in Q2 2025, marking a record high with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 14.6% [1][4]. Group 1: Revenue Rankings - TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) leads the market with a revenue of $30.24 billion in Q2 2025, up 18.5% from Q1 2025, holding a market share of 70.2% [3][4]. - Samsung ranks second with a revenue of approximately $3.16 billion, reflecting a 9.2% increase, but its market share decreased to 7.3% [3][4]. - SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation) reported a slight revenue decline of 1.7%, totaling around $2.21 billion, maintaining a market share of 5.1% [3][4]. - UMC (United Microelectronics Corporation) achieved a revenue growth of 8.2%, reaching $1.90 billion, with a market share of 4.4% [3][4]. - GlobalFoundries saw a revenue increase of 6.5%, nearing $1.69 billion, with a market share of 3.9% [3][4]. - The total revenue of the top ten foundries reached $41.72 billion, accounting for 97% of the market [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The second quarter of 2025 experienced a boost in wafer foundry capacity utilization and shipment volume, driven by preemptive stocking due to consumer subsidies in the Chinese market and upcoming product launches in smartphones, laptops, and servers [4][5]. - The third quarter is expected to see continued growth, primarily fueled by seasonal demand for new products and high-value wafer orders, which will enhance overall revenue [5].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's market share in the semiconductor foundry market has surpassed 70% for the first time, solidifying its dominant position globally [1][2][3] Group 1: TSMC's Performance - TSMC's market share reached 70.2% in Q2 2025, up from 67.6% in the previous quarter, marking a significant increase [1][2] - The company's revenue for the quarter grew by 18.5% year-on-year, totaling $30.239 billion, significantly outperforming Samsung's revenue of $3.159 billion [1][3] - TSMC's strong performance is attributed to its continuous investment in advanced processes and technology leadership [3] Group 2: Industry Context - The overall foundry industry revenue increased by 14.6% quarter-on-quarter, driven by government subsidy policies and strong demand for smartphones, AI, PCs, and servers [1] - Samsung's market share decreased from 7.7% to 7.3%, with a revenue growth of 9.2%, indicating a widening gap between TSMC and Samsung [3][4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts expect TSMC's market share to reach 75% by 2026, supported by the rising demand for 2nm processes [1][3] - TSMC plans to invest up to $49 billion in building a 1.4nm chip factory in Taiwan, aiming to maintain its technological edge [3] - Samsung is actively pursuing the development of 2nm GAA technology but currently lacks the capacity and customer base to compete effectively with TSMC [4]

Core Viewpoint - Recent rumors regarding Intel's (INTC.US) foundry revival have negatively impacted TSMC (TSM.US), raising investor concerns about increased competition. However, JPMorgan believes that the "competitive illusion" created by Intel's foundry efforts is actually more beneficial for TSMC [1] Group 1: Intel's Developments - Intel has made significant progress recently, with reports of potential government investment and a $2 billion investment from SoftBank. Key customers may also participate in the revival of Intel's wafer fabrication facilities [1] - U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo stated that the U.S. cannot rely solely on TSMC for advanced chip supply and aims to shift more capacity back to the U.S. [1] Group 2: TSMC's Market Position - JPMorgan asserts that the illusion of having a weaker competitor is more advantageous for TSMC, as it alleviates ongoing regulatory pressures and the push to return business to the U.S. [2] - Despite potential negative perceptions from market participants regarding major TSMC clients like Apple or Nvidia supporting Intel's revival, JPMorgan believes that this will not resolve the inherent conflicts of interest between products and foundries [2] - TSMC is expected to maintain over 90% market share in advanced nodes for the foreseeable future, as the costs associated with a 100% market share may outweigh the benefits [2] Group 3: Geopolitical and Regulatory Factors - Reports suggest that the U.S. government may convert part of the CHIPS Act funding into equity stakes in participating companies, which could require TSMC to sell a small portion of its equity, likely not exceeding 1% [3] - JPMorgan believes that this potential equity sale is unlikely to significantly alter TSMC's strategic direction and that TSMC will probably not operate Intel's factories or share intellectual property or technology with Intel [3] Group 4: Overall Market Outlook - JPMorgan concludes that while geopolitical factors may cause short-term volatility, TSMC's fundamentals remain strong, indicating potential for upward movement [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - Various commodities show different trends, including price fluctuations, range - bound trading, and impacts from macro and industry news [2][6] - Some commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost support, and policy changes Summary by Commodities Precious Metals - **Gold**: PPI exceeding expectations dampens interest - rate cut expectations, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][8] - **Silver**: Experiences a slight decline, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][8] Base Metals - **Copper**: The rise of the US dollar puts pressure on prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][12] - **Zinc**: Shows a slight decline, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][15] - **Lead**: A significant increase in overseas inventories puts pressure on prices, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][18] - **Tin**: Trades in a range, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][21] - **Aluminum**: Trades in a range, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina's center of gravity moves down, with a trend strength of - 1; Casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, with a trend strength of 0 [2][25] - **Nickel**: Narrowly fluctuates based on fundamentals, and investors should be wary of news - related risks, with a trend strength of 0 [2][28] - **Stainless Steel**: The steel price fluctuates due to the game between macro expectations and reality, with a trend strength of 0 [2][28] Energy - related Metals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Trades in a range, and investors should pay attention to supply disruptions, with a trend strength of 0 [2][34] Industrial Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment weakens, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][38] - **Polysilicon**: Market news boosts sentiment, with a trend strength of 1 [2][39] Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Macro risk appetite has not significantly declined, and there is still support, with a trend strength of 0 [2][43] - **Rebar**: Trades in a wide range, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][46] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Trades in a wide range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][47] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The market leans towards fundamentals and shows a weak - side fluctuation, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][51] - **Silicomanganese**: The market leans towards fundamentals and shows a weak - side fluctuation, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][51] - **Coke**: Trades at a high level, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55] - **Coking Coal**: Trades at a high level, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55] Forestry Products - **Log**: Fluctuates repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][58] Chemicals - **Para - xylene**: Cost support is weak, but terminal demand improves, and the monthly spread remains strong [2][62] - **PTA**: Weak reality and strong expectations lead to a monthly - spread reverse arbitrage [2][62] - **MEG**: The arrival volume this week is low, and the basis strengthens [2][62] Rubber - **Rubber**: Fluctuates weakly [2][31] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Pulls back in the short - term and trades in a range in the medium - term [2][33] Building Materials - **Asphalt**: Poor sales and unfavorable crude - oil trends [2][35] - **LLDPE**: Trades in a range [2][38] - **PP**: Tends to be weak, but investors should be cautious when short - selling at low levels [2][39] - **Caustic Soda**: Should be treated bullishly, but investors should pay attention to the situation of near - month warehouse receipts [2][40] - **Pulp**: Fluctuates weakly [2][41] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [2][43] - **Methanol**: Fluctuates [2][44] - **Urea**: Driven by short - term news, the upside space narrows [2][46] - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market [2][48] - **LPG**: The risk of squeezing positions in the near - month contract still exists [2][49] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Follows the macro trend and adjusts [2][61] - **Soybean Oil**: Lacks driving force from US soybeans and adjusts [2][61] - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight US soybeans close lower, and the domestic soybean meal adjusts and fluctuates [2][63] - **Soybean**: The atmosphere in the soybean market is weak, and it adjusts and fluctuates [2][63] - **Corn**: Runs weakly [2][65] - **Sugar**: The import volume in July increases significantly year - on - year [2][67] - **Cotton**: Investors should pay attention to the listing of new cotton [2][68] - **Egg**: The long - term expectation is weak [2][70] - **Live Pig**: Wait for the verification of the spot price at the end of the month [2][71] - **Peanut**: Investors should pay attention to the situation of new peanuts [2][72] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Fluctuates and consolidates, and investors can hold short positions in the October contract as appropriate [2][54] Textiles - **Short - fiber**: Trades in a short - term range, and investors should pay attention to the approaching peak - season demand [2][58] - **Bottle - grade Chip**: Has limited downside space and trades in a range [2][58] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Fluctuates at a low level and has limited upward momentum [2][59] - **Pure Benzene**: Fluctuates weakly [2][60]

Group 1 - TSMC reported a net profit of NT$398.27 billion (approximately RMB 94.78 billion) for Q2 2025, with its Arizona factory contributing NT$6.447 billion (approximately RMB 1.534 billion) in investment income after four years of losses [1] - The Arizona factory had accumulated losses exceeding NT$39.4 billion over the past four years, with losses of NT$4.976 billion and NT$4.979 billion in Q3 and Q4 of 2024, respectively [1] - Despite the contribution from the Arizona factory, it only accounted for 1.62% of TSMC's total net profit for Q2 [1] Group 2 - TSMC announced a total investment of $65 billion for three advanced chip factories in the U.S., followed by an additional $100 billion for three more advanced chip factories, two advanced packaging plants, and a research center [2] - The P1 factory began production in Q4 of last year, while the P2 factory is expected to start equipment installation in Q3 of next year and begin mass production in 2027 [2] Group 3 - TSMC's subsidiary in Japan, JASM, continues to operate at a loss, with losses reported at NT$11.19 billion, NT$11.87 billion, NT$32.49 billion, and NT$29.73 billion over recent quarters [4] - The low capacity utilization rate of approximately 50% at JASM's first wafer fab is attributed to intense competition in mature process nodes [4] - The slow recovery in the automotive and consumer markets is cited as a reason for the delayed construction of JASM's second factory [4] Group 4 - TSMC's Arizona factory has achieved a monthly production capacity of approximately 34,000 wafers for 4nm chips, fully booked by clients such as Apple and AMD [5] - The profitability of the Arizona factory is contingent on capacity utilization and product margins, with TSMC indicating that overseas factory mass production will dilute margins by 2-3% annually in the initial years, increasing to 3-4% later [5] Group 5 - U.S. government officials have expressed concerns about the return on investment from subsidies provided to semiconductor manufacturers, including TSMC [6] - The U.S. government is considering acquiring equity stakes in companies like TSMC as part of the Chip Act funding [6][7] - There is a push from U.S. officials to relocate some chip manufacturing back to the U.S. for national security reasons [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: PPI exceeding expectations dampens expectations of interest rate cuts [2][4] - Silver: Experiences a slight decline [2][4] - Copper: The rise of the US dollar puts pressure on prices [2][9] - Zinc: Shows a slight drop [2][12] - Lead: A significant increase in overseas inventories puts pressure on prices [2][15] - Tin: Trades within a range [2][18] - Aluminum: Trades within a range; Alumina: Shifts downward; Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][22] - Nickel: Narrow - range fluctuations based on fundamental logic, with caution for news - related risks [2][25] - Stainless steel: The steel price fluctuates due to the game between macro expectations and reality [2][25] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: For gold, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2510, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2510 all declined, with daily declines of - 0.33%, - 0.31%, and - 0.57% respectively. For silver, the closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2510 and Silver T + D also decreased, with daily declines of - 0.77% and - 0.48% respectively. There were also changes in trading volume, positions, inventories, and spreads [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is - 1, and silver trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [7]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased by - 0.05%, and the London Copper 3M electronic disk decreased by - 0.69%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventories, and spreads [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US Department of Commerce included 407 types of steel and aluminum derivative products in the tariff list. The meeting locations for the US, Russia, and Ukraine are being considered, and Trump mentioned that Ukraine may need to make territorial concessions. PT Smelting's oxygen - making equipment malfunction extended the maintenance period, and Codelco restarted the smelter at the El Teniente copper mine. Glencore applied to include two copper mine projects in Argentina in the investment incentive plan [9][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract decreased by - 0.69%, and the London Zinc 3M electronic disk decreased by - 0.45%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, spreads, and inventories [12]. - **News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments aimed to standardize the photovoltaic industry competition order [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [13]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 0.30%, and the London Lead 3M electronic disk decreased by - 0.03%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, spreads, and inventories [15]. - **News**: The US Department of Commerce included 407 types of steel and aluminum derivative products in the tariff list, and the meeting locations for the US, Russia, and Ukraine are being considered [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [16]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased by 0.40%, and the London Tin 3M electronic disk increased by 0.30%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventories, and spreads [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were multiple news events including diplomatic meetings and corporate actions [19][20]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [21]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased, and there were changes in trading volume, positions, spreads, and inventories for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy. There were also changes in related costs, profits, and prices in the industrial chain [22]. - **Comprehensive News**: The US Department of Commerce included 407 types of steel and aluminum derivative products in the tariff list [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity is 0, alumina trend intensity is - 1, and aluminum alloy trend intensity is 0 [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: There were changes in the closing prices, trading volumes, positions, and various industry - related data for nickel and stainless steel [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were multiple news events related to the nickel and stainless - steel industries, including production suspensions, regulatory requirements, and government actions [25][26][27][28][29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless steel trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [30].