智通财经APP获悉，据美国劳工统计局周四发布的报告，美国9月份非农新增就业人数为11.9 万人，高 于 8 月份减少4000人(修正后)，而市场预期为新增5万人。9月失业率小幅上升至 4.4%，这是自 2021 年 10 月以来的最高水平，预期为4.3%。9月平均时薪环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨3.8%，而预期分别为 0.3% 和 3.7%。 意外向好的数据将强化联邦公开市场委员会鹰派成员的立场，他们始终警告美联储不宜过快降息。与此 同时，此前美联储 10 月会议纪要显示，决策者倾向于在 12 月不降息。消息公布后，交易员们降低了对 美联储下个月降息的预期。掉期交易员目前预计美联储下个月降息的概率仅为 35%，较上周末的 43% 有所下降。 | | | | | | CME FEDWATCH TOOL - CONDITIONAL MEETING PROBABILITIES | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | MEETING DATE 175-200 200-225 2 ...

Economic Overview - Singapore's economy grew by 2.9% year-on-year in Q3 2025, a decrease from the revised 4.4% growth in Q2, but still above market expectations of 2% [1] - The quarterly seasonally adjusted growth was 1.3%, slightly lower than Q2's 1.5%, indicating a continued recovery trend [1] Sector Performance - Manufacturing sector growth was nearly stagnant in Q3, significantly down from 5.5% in Q2, primarily due to declines in biomedical manufacturing and general manufacturing output [1] - However, the manufacturing sector showed a positive change with a 6.1% quarter-on-quarter growth in Q3, indicating adaptation to market changes [1] Construction Industry - The construction industry experienced a 3.1% year-on-year growth in Q3, a significant slowdown compared to Q2 [2] - Despite growth from public and private sector construction, the industry faced short-term pressure with a 1.2% quarter-on-quarter contraction in Q3 [2] Services Sector - The services sector showed mixed performance, with wholesale and retail trade, and transportation and warehousing growing by 2.5% year-on-year, down from 4.9% in Q2 [2] - Core service sectors such as information and communication, finance and insurance, and professional services maintained robust growth at 4.4%, consistent with Q2's performance [2] Other Services - Other service sectors, including accommodation and food services, real estate, and administrative support, grew by 4.1% year-on-year, stable compared to Q2 [3] - The recovery of international tourist numbers significantly boosted the accommodation sector, supported by stable domestic consumption [3] Economic Outlook - Despite the resilience shown in Q3, global economic uncertainties remain a significant risk factor [3] - The Monetary Authority of Singapore decided to maintain the nominal effective exchange rate policy to balance potential inflation risks with economic growth uncertainties [3] - Long-term economic growth in Singapore will continue to be influenced by global economic conditions, trade tensions, and policy adjustments in major economies [3]

阿塞拜疆"OXU"网9月11日报道，阿塞拜疆国家统计委员会数据显示，截 至2025年8月1日，阿全国就业人员176.8万人。其中，公共部门就业人数85.8万 人，私营部门就业人数91万人。18.9%的就业人口从事贸易和汽车维修行业， 18.1%从事教育，13.8%从事工业，8.5%从事卫生和社会服务，6.8%从事建筑 业，6.3%从事社会管理和国防，4.2%从事运输和仓储，3.9%从事专业、科学 和技术活动，2.4%从事农业、林业和渔业，2.3%从事金融和保险，14.8%从事 其他经济领域。1-7月，全国人均名义月工资为1098.1马纳特（645美元），同 比增长9.5%。薪资最高的行业是采掘业、金融和保险业、信息通信业、科技和 物流运输业。 （原标题：1-7月阿塞拜疆人均名义月工资为645美元） ...

Economic Overview - Brazil's GDP grew by 0.4% in Q2 2025, marking the 16th consecutive quarter of positive growth and the highest level since the series began in 1996, with a total economic output of 3.2 trillion reais [1] - The growth rate in Q2 was lower than the 1.3% recorded in Q1, indicating a moderate slowdown, but still exceeded market expectations of 0.3%. Year-on-year, the economy grew by 2.2% [1] Sector Performance - The services sector grew by 0.6%, reaching a historical high and serving as the main driver of overall economic growth, particularly in financial services, information and communication, and transportation and storage [1] - The industrial sector saw a 0.5% increase, primarily driven by mining, especially in oil and gas extraction, although manufacturing, electricity, and construction experienced slight declines [1] - Agriculture experienced a minor decline of 0.1% quarter-on-quarter but showed a significant year-on-year growth of 10.1%, benefiting from strong soybean and corn harvests earlier in the year [1] Demand Side Analysis - Government consumption decreased by 0.6%, while household consumption increased by 0.5%. Investment fell by 2.2%, mainly due to weaknesses in construction and capital goods production [1] - On the external front, exports grew by 0.7%, while imports declined by 2.9% [1] Industry Insights - The manufacturing and construction sectors, closely tied to credit, are under significant pressure, while the resilience of the services sector and household consumption plays a crucial supporting role [2]

Core Insights - Dubai's GDP grew by 4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching 119.7 billion dirhams (approximately 32.79 billion USD), indicating the resilience and vitality of the economy [1] Economic Performance by Sector - The healthcare and social work sector experienced the fastest growth at 26%, contributing 1.5% to GDP [1] - The real estate sector followed with a growth rate of 7.8%, accounting for 7.5% of GDP [1] - Wholesale and retail trade remains the largest single contributor to Dubai's economy, with a GDP share of 23% and a year-on-year growth of 4.5% [1] - The financial and insurance sector contributed 13.4% to GDP, growing by 5.9% [1] - The transportation and warehousing sector accounted for 13% of GDP, with a growth of 2% [1] - The manufacturing sector represented 7.3% of GDP, growing by 3.3% [1] - The information and telecommunications sector contributed 4.4% to GDP, with a growth rate of 3.2% [1] - The accommodation and food services sector accounted for 4.1% of GDP, growing by 3.4% [1] - Other activities made up 26% of GDP, with a year-on-year growth of 1.9% [1]

Economic Performance - In the first quarter of 2025, Dubai's GDP reached 119.7 billion dirhams, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4% [2] - The growth demonstrates the resilience and vitality of Dubai's economy [2] Sector Contributions - The real estate sector experienced a significant growth of 7.8% [2] - The financial and insurance sector grew by 5.9% [2] - The wholesale and retail trade sector saw an increase of 4.5% [2] - The information and telecommunications sector grew by 3.2% [2] - The accommodation and food services sector increased by 3.4% [2] - The manufacturing sector grew by 3.3% [2] - The transportation and warehousing sector experienced a growth of 2% [2]

Economic Growth - Malaysia's GDP grew by 4.5% year-on-year in Q2, exceeding market expectations and slightly higher than the previous quarter's 4.4% [1] - The growth was primarily driven by strong domestic consumption, with significant contributions from the services and agriculture sectors [1] Sector Performance - The services sector was the main driver of economic growth in Q2, growing by 5.3% compared to 5.0% in Q1, supported by wholesale and retail trade, transportation, and business services [1] - Agriculture showed notable improvement with a 2.0% growth in Q2, up from 0.6% in Q1, largely due to increased palm oil production [1] - The construction industry continued its strong growth, achieving an 11% increase in Q2, despite a slowdown from 14.2% in Q1, driven by non-residential and specialized construction activities [2] - Manufacturing growth slowed to 3.8% in Q2 from 4.1% in Q1, but key sectors like electrical, electronic, and food processing remained robust [2] - The mining and quarrying sector faced challenges, contracting by 7.4% in Q2, worsened from a 2.7% decline in Q1, primarily due to falling oil and gas production [2] Domestic Consumption - Strong domestic consumption was a key factor in Q2 economic growth, supported by a stable labor market and low unemployment rates, which bolstered household spending [2] - Government cash assistance programs, such as SARA and STR, provided additional support to household spending, alleviating economic pressure on families [3] Trade and Policy Challenges - Despite exceeding growth expectations, Malaysia's economy faces challenges from global trade uncertainties, with exports unexpectedly declining by 3.5% in June [3] - Potential tariffs from the U.S. on Malaysian exports, particularly a proposed 25% tariff effective August 1, could significantly impact the export market [3] - The slowdown in major export markets may also affect export demand, alongside domestic policy adjustments that could pressure economic growth [3] Future Outlook - The central bank anticipates a slowdown in economic growth in the second half of the year but expects the annual growth rate to exceed 4.5% [4] - Continued domestic demand growth and government policy support are expected to provide some buffer for the economy [4] - The central bank is closely monitoring trade and tariff developments and is likely to implement further interest rate cuts later in the year to support economic growth [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the US manufacturing sector remains sluggish in June, with new orders weak and input prices rising, suggesting that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration continue to hinder businesses' planning capabilities [2] - The latest data shows that the ISM manufacturing PMI for June increased slightly from May's six-month low of 48.5 to 49.0, marking the fourth consecutive month below 50, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector, which accounts for 10.2% of the economy [2] - Despite economic uncertainties, the labor market remains stable, as evidenced by an unexpected rise in job vacancies in May to the highest level since November of the previous year, with job openings increasing from a revised 7.4 million in April to 7.77 million in May, surpassing economists' expectations [2] Group 2 - COMEX gold prices are currently trading at $3342.10 per ounce, down 0.23%, with a daily high of $3354.80 and a low of $3340.70 [3] - The short-term outlook for COMEX gold indicates resistance levels at $3380-$3390 and support levels at $3230-$3240 [3]

Group 1 - The JOLTS report indicates that the U.S. labor market remains stable despite economic uncertainties, with job openings unexpectedly rising to 7.769 million in May, surpassing expectations of 7.3 million and the previous month's figure of 7.391 million [1][3] - Job openings have shown volatility, with significant fluctuations of up to 500,000 per month, but have generally stabilized between 7 million and 8 million over the past year [3] - The increase in job openings in May was primarily driven by the leisure and hospitality sector, which accounted for three-quarters of the total openings, while other sectors showed mixed results [3] Group 2 - The number of layoffs decreased to 188,000 in May, with a layoff rate of 1%, indicating a relatively stable labor market [5] - Hiring numbers slightly declined from a peak of 5.615 million to 5.503 million, with the largest decreases observed in healthcare and manufacturing sectors [5] - The number of voluntary resignations increased from 3.215 million to 3.293 million, suggesting a tighter labor market as workers feel confident to seek better opportunities [5] Group 3 - The ratio of job openings to unemployed individuals rose to 1.1, aligning with pre-pandemic levels, marking the first increase in this metric in several months [3] - Economists are closely monitoring the upcoming June non-farm payroll report for signs of labor market slowdown, with expectations of slower job growth and a rising unemployment rate [7] - The JOLTS report is considered a key labor market indicator by policymakers, although some economists question its reliability due to a low response rate in the survey [7]

Core Insights - The unemployment rate in the Philippines rose to 4.1% in April, marking the second consecutive month of increase, with the number of unemployed reaching 2.06 million [1] - The unemployment rates for February and March were 3.8% and 3.9%, respectively, indicating a month-over-month increase and a year-over-year rise of 0.1 percentage points [1] - The number of unemployed increased by 130,000 from March to April [1] Employment Sector Analysis - The services sector remains the largest employer in the Philippines, with 30.12 million jobs, accounting for 61.9% of total employment [1] - Agriculture and industry represent 20.6% and 17.5% of total employment, respectively [1] - From January to April, employment in agriculture, accommodation and food services, and transportation and warehousing saw a significant decline, while administrative and support services, construction, and fisheries experienced job growth [1] Employment Quality and Youth Participation - The underemployment rate in April rose to 14.6%, up from 13.4% in March, indicating that 7.09 million workers are seeking more hours or better job opportunities [1] - The labor force participation rate for the 15 to 24 age group increased from 29.4% to 31.8%, suggesting more youth are entering the labor market [1] - However, the unemployment rate for this age group also increased from 11.0% to 11.5%, reflecting heightened employment pressure among young individuals [1]