万林新（联系人） 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 库存结构性矛盾，矿价震荡运行 铁矿石周报 从业资格号：F03133967 2025/11/22 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 库存 06 基差 01 周度评估及策略推荐 黑色产业链示意图 周度要点小结 ◆ 供应：全球铁矿石发运总量3516.4万吨，环比增加447.4万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2908.7万吨，环比增加360.1万吨。澳洲发运量2050.4 万吨，环比增加239.6万吨，其中澳洲发往中国的量1873.0万吨，环比增加339.0万吨。巴西发运量858.2万吨，环比增加120.5万吨。中国47 港到港总量2369.9万吨，环比减少399.4万吨；中国45港到港总量2268.9万吨，环比减少472.3万吨。 ◆ 需求：日均铁水产量236.28万吨，环比上周减少0.60万吨。高炉炼铁产能利用率88.58%，环比上周减少0.22个百分点；钢厂盈利率37.66%， 环比上周减少1.3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests patience with the Iron Ore 05 contract, waiting for basis repair and market sentiment to improve. Consider shorting at a high price after the contract rebounds above 770 yuan to enhance safety margins. Shorting at current price and basis levels may lead to double losses [2][3][5]. - The short - term price of iron ore is strong, mainly driven by the strong coking coal price. However, the policy is now focused on "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", and coking coal prices are expected to fall, which will support iron ore prices [3]. - The current fundamentals of iron ore are in short - term supply - demand balance. Although the overall port inventory is high, the shortage of medium - grade ore resources leads to tight deliverable resources, a strong spot market, and a widened basis [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Leveraging Factors**: Decreasing port inventory of deliverable mainstream medium - high grade powder ores supports near - month contracts and basis; the sharp decline in coking coal prices creates room for iron ore prices; steel demand has improved and inventory has decreased [3]. - **Negative Factors**: China is in a macro - vacuum period with weak high - frequency economic data; the probability of a Fed rate cut in December has dropped significantly, reducing market risk appetite [3]. - **Market Situation**: Iron ore prices are in a wide - range shock, with short - term strength driven by coking coal. The coking coal price is expected to fall due to policy changes. Iron ore fundamentals are in short - term balance, with high basis and a positive spread pattern [3]. - **Strategy**: Wait for basis repair before considering shorting the far - month contract of iron ore [3]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - The Iron Ore 2601 contract should be traded within the range of [760, 810] [6]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For those with spot inventory worried about price drops, short the iron ore futures directly (I2512) with a 25% hedging ratio at 820 - 830; sell call options (I2512 - C - 830) with a 30% ratio at high prices [7]. - **Procurement Management**: For those planning to purchase in the future and worried about price increases, go long on iron ore futures directly (I2512) with a 30% hedging ratio at 780 - 790; sell out - of - the - money put options (I2511 - P - 780) with a 40% ratio at high prices [7]. 1.4 Core Data - **Black Industry Chain Cost - Profit Table**: Iron water cost increased by 45.18 yuan/ton week - on - week and 105.16 yuan/ton month - on - month; blast furnace hot - rolled coil profit decreased by 23 yuan/ton week - on - week; blast furnace rebar profit remained unchanged week - on - week [7]. - **Iron Ore Shipment Data**: Global shipments increased by 447.4 tons week - on - week; Australian and Brazilian shipments increased by 390.3 tons week - on - week; 45 - port arrivals decreased by 472.3 tons week - on - week [8]. - **Iron Ore Demand Data**: Daily average steel mill shipments increased by 2.97 tons week - on - week; daily average iron water production decreased by 0.6 tons week - on - week; blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.62% week - on - week [10]. - **Iron Ore Inventory Data**: 45 - port imported ore inventory decreased by 75.06 tons week - on - week; steel mill imported ore inventory decreased by 74.78 tons week - on - week [11]. 2. Supply 2.1 Global Shipment Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of global iron ore shipments, year - to - date cumulative global shipment differences, and the relationship between cumulative global shipment differences and iron ore index closing prices [12]. 2.2 Four Major Mines Shipment Analysis - Studied the seasonality of shipments from the four major mines, year - to - date cumulative shipment differences, and the relationship between cumulative shipment differences and iron ore index closing prices [16][17]. 2.3 Non - mainstream Mines Shipment Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of non - mainstream mine shipments, year - to - date cumulative shipment differences, and the relationship between the Platts iron ore index and non - mainstream mine shipments. Also examined the proportion of non - mainstream mines and four major mines in global shipments [22][26]. 2.4 Arrival and Berthing Analysis - Studied the seasonality of arrivals at 47 ports, year - to - date cumulative arrival volume differences, the number of ships at berth, berthing days, and actual arrival volume [28][30][32]. 2.5 Capsize Shipping Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of freight prices for capsize ships on different routes, the proportion of iron ore freight in different products, and the seasonality of capsize ship speeds [36][39][41]. 2.6 Domestic Ore Supply Analysis - Examined the seasonality of daily average iron concentrate production of 186 mining enterprises and monthly iron concentrate production of 433 mining enterprises, as well as the year - to - date cumulative daily average production seasonality and monthly production year - on - year changes [44][46]. 3. Demand Analysis 3.1 Iron Water Analysis - Studied the seasonality of daily average iron water production of 247 steel enterprises, the relationship between iron water production and blast furnace maintenance, and the relationship between iron water production and iron ore prices [48][50][52]. 3.2 Steel Mill Profit Analysis - Analyzed the production profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in blast furnaces, the profitability rate of steel enterprises, and the relationship between profits and future production of different steel products [54][57][60]. 3.3 Downstream Steel Analysis: Rebar - Studied the production, consumption, inventory, and price - cost relationship of rebar, as well as the production proportion of short - process steel mills and the relationship between rebar prices and cement shipments [66][71][72]. 3.4 Downstream Steel Analysis: Hot - rolled Coil - Analyzed the production, consumption, inventory, and price differences of hot - rolled coils [74][75][77]. 3.6 Downstream Steel Analysis: Medium - thick Plate - Studied the production, consumption, inventory, and inventory - to - sales ratio of medium - thick plates [79][80]. 3.5 Export Analysis - Analyzed China's steel export volume, port outbound volume, export orders, and export profits of hot - rolled coils [99][100][101]. 4. Inventory Analysis 4.1 Port Inventory Analysis - Studied the seasonality of 45 - port iron ore imports, the structure of port inventory, and the relationship between inventory and iron ore prices [103][105][107]. 4.2 Other Inventory Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of iron ore imports in 247 steel enterprises, the combined inventory of steel mills and in - transit iron ore, and the estimated turnover days of iron ore inventory [122][123]. 5. Valuation Analysis 5.1 Basis and Term Structure - Provided the basis and delivery profit data of different iron ore varieties, and analyzed the seasonality of the basis of different iron ore contracts and the term structure of iron ore futures [124][125]. 5.2 Rebar - Iron Ore Ratio and Hot - rolled Coil - Iron Ore Ratio - Studied the seasonality of the rebar - iron ore ratio and hot - rolled coil - iron ore ratio for different contracts [127]. 5.3 Coking Coal Ratio Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of the coking coal - iron ore spread for different contracts and the relationship between coking coal and iron ore prices [129][130]. 5.4 Scrap Steel Cost - effectiveness Analysis - Studied the iron - scrap steel price difference, the relationship between the iron - scrap steel price difference and scrap steel consumption ratio, and the relationship between the iron - scrap steel price difference and iron water - scrap steel daily consumption [132][133][135].

市场预期反复，矿价高位承压 研究员：丁祖超 期货从业证号：F 0 3 1 0 5 9 1 7 投资咨询证号：Z0018259 目 录 第一部分：综合分析与交易策略 第二部分：铁矿核心逻辑分析 第一部分：综合分析与交易策略 第二部分：铁矿核心逻辑分析 * [16] A. A. K. K. * [16] A. A. K. K. GALAXY FUTURES 1 投资逻辑与交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 逻辑分析：本周矿价底部上涨，供给端扰动事件再起，短期对市场情绪面影响较大，但进一步上涨空间有限。基本面方面，11月份以 来供应端维持平稳，主流矿澳洲同比基本持平，巴西矿贡献小幅增量；非主流发运环比三季度高位小幅回落，但同比仍贡献增量，四 季度整体供应宽松格局难以改变。需求端，三季度至今国内终端用钢需求环比较快回落，四季度环比出现好转迹象，但10月份地产、 基建和制造业用钢均出现下滑，中期来看国内终端用钢有望延续低位运行。对比来看，海外用钢需求维持高增长，1-9月海外铁元素消 费量同比增加近4%/2760万吨，二季度至今海外铁元素消费量同比处于高位，持续贡献增量。 整体来看，当前国内用钢需求较快下滑有望主 ...

业务咨询 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.11.21」 铁矿石市场周报 到港+港口库存减少 铁矿期价震荡偏强 研究员：蔡跃辉 添加客服 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 447.4万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2908.7万吨，环比增加360.1万吨。 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格：截至11月21日收盘，铁矿主力合约期价为785.5（+13）元/吨，青岛港麦克粉844（+6）元/干吨。 2. 发运：全球铁矿石发运总量环比+447.4万吨。2025年11月10日-11月16日Mysteel全球铁矿石发运总量3516.4万吨，环比增加 3. 到港：本期47港到港量-399.4万吨。2025年11月10日-11月16日中国47港到港总量2369.9万吨，环比减少399.4万吨；中国45港 到港总量2268.9万吨，环比减少472.3万吨；北方六港到港总量1041.3万吨，环比减少484.5万吨 ...

| 日本 康家 出版 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | 2025/11/21 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | 投资咨询证号 | 执业证号 | 黑色金属研究中心 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | Z0010820 | F0286636 | 黄志鸿 | Z0015761 | F3051824 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | Z0020036 | F03094002 | 薛夏泽 | Z0022680 | F03117750 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | 7000 | 1000 | 12605 | JM2605 | RB2605 | H ...

本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 45港铁矿石库存 15,054.65 -75.06 14,542.48 512.17 15,319.38 -264.73 247家钢厂进口矿库存 9,001.23 -74.78 8,849.86 151.37 9,173.04 -171.81 45港铁矿石到货量 2,268.90 -472.30 2,029.10 239.80 2,782.00 -513.10 全球19港铁矿石发货量 3,516.40 447.38 3,388.35 128.05 3,010.90 505.50 247家钢厂日均铁水产量 236.28 -0.60 236.36 -0.08 235.80 0.48 45港日均疏港量 329.92 2.97 320.16 9.76 326.98 2.94 247家钢厂进口矿日耗 291.68 -0.95 291.62 0.06 292.61 -0.93 主港铁矿成交周均值 75.08 -30.88 82.18 -7.10 109.98 -34.90 数据来源：我的钢铁网 宝城期货金融研究所 铁矿石周度数据（20251121） 库存 供给 需求 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, and thermal coal are all "oscillating" [1][3][5][7] Core Views - The steel market has inventory pressure, and steel prices will oscillate. The iron ore market has high supply and inventory pressure, and ore prices will likely oscillate. The coking coal and coke markets are pessimistic, with prices running weakly. The thermal coal market has limited supply recovery and high prices, with short - term prices oscillating strongly [1][3][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, steel futures prices oscillated weakly, and spot prices followed suit. National building materials trading volume was 84,500 tons, a decrease of 8.15% from the previous day. Rebar production increased, inventory decreased, and apparent demand was better than expected. Hot - rolled coil production increased slightly, inventory decreased, and consumption increased month - on - month [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Building materials have supply pressure, but inventory reduction is significant, and apparent consumption is good. However, the consumption off - season is approaching, and consumption sustainability needs to be observed. The supply - demand pattern of strip steel has improved, but supply pressure remains, and inventory reduction pressure is still large. Short - term steel prices will oscillate, and future winter storage games and raw material support need to be observed [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, iron ore futures oscillated. Spot prices were generally weak and stable, and trading was dull. The cumulative trading volume of main ports in the country was 918,000 tons, an increase of 27.32% from the previous day. This week, the average daily hot metal output decreased slightly, port inventory decreased slightly, and the number of stranded ships increased [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Iron ore supply remains high, and inventory pressure persists. With steel mills' losses and production cuts, hot metal output has decreased month - on - month. Port inventory reduction and a decline in arrivals support prices, so the callback space for ore prices is limited, and they will likely oscillate within a range. Future hot metal output and downstream inventory changes need to be observed [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the prices of black - sector commodities generally fell, and the prices of coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. Imported Mongolian coal prices weakened due to the decline in futures prices, trading was cold, and trading volume further declined. This week, coking coal production continued to increase, downstream coking plants and ports reduced inventory significantly, coke production decreased slightly, and overall inventory increased slightly [5] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, domestic mines are gradually resuming production, Mongolian coal customs clearance remains high, and seaborne coal imports have also increased. Short - term coking coal supply has recovered month - on - month, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, with insufficient speculative demand. The market focus is on the value of warehouse receipts. For coke, production restrictions in some areas have ended, supply has improved, hot metal output has decreased slightly, speculative demand has weakened, and coke supply and demand are in a weak balance [6] - **Strategy**: Coking coal and coke trading are both oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, coal prices have been slightly adjusted, and supply has tightened in some mines due to environmental protection and other factors, leading to a slight increase in prices. At present, coal prices are relatively high, and downstream buyers only purchase on demand, with speculative demand slowing down. At ports, inventory has accumulated due to navigation bans, market coal trading is sluggish, and downstream buyers are mainly waiting and watching. For imported coal, supply from Indonesia is low, and foreign mine quotes remain high due to existing profits [7] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Current supply recovery in the production area is limited, and downstream purchasing is more cautious. However, the consumption peak season has arrived, port inventory accumulation is lower than expected, and non - power demand downstream is strong. Short - term prices will oscillate strongly, and future overall consumption and inventory replenishment need to be observed [7]

| 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年11月21日 | | | 周敏波 | 20010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | Wite | 削值 | 不跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3210 | 3220 | -10 | 160 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3220 | 3230 | -10 | 170 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3290 | 3300 | -10 | 240 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 309d | 3116 | -17 | 111 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3143 | 3162 | -19 | 67 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3050 | 3070 | -20 | 160 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3270 | 3280 | -10 | 3 | 元/中 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3210 | 3220 | -10 | -51 | | | ...

研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2025 年 11 月 20 日 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 788.5 | 791.5 | -3.0 | I01-I05 | 35.5 | 36.5 | -1.0 | | DCE05 | 753.0 | 755.0 | -2.0 | I05-I09 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 0.0 | | DCE09 | 728.0 | 730.0 | -2.0 | I09-I01 | -60.5 | -61.5 | 1.0 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | PB粉(60.8%) | 790 | 790 | 0 | 860 | 61 | 97 | 122 | | 纽曼粉 | 790 | 792 | -2 | 857 | 57 | 94 | 119 | | 麦克粉 | 786 | 788 | -2 | 857 | 57 | 94 | 119 ...

【现货】 截至11月19日收盘，主流矿粉现货价格：日照港（600017）PB粉+0元/吨至795元/吨，卡粉+0元至892.0 元/吨。 【期货】 以收盘价统计，铁矿主力合约-0.5（-0.06%），收于791.5元/吨，铁矿远月2605合约-2.5(-0.33%)收于 755，1-5价差走强至36.5，SGX铁矿掉期价格+0.20美元/吨（+0.19%）至104.45美元/吨。 【基差】 截至11月19日，日均铁水产量236.88万吨/日，环比+2.66万吨/日；高炉开工率82.81%，环比-0.32%；高 炉炼铁产能利用率88.8%，环比+0.99%；钢厂盈利率38.96%，环比-0.87%；进口矿日耗292.63万吨/日， 环比3.93万吨/日。 【供给】 截至11月19日，上周全球发运环比上升，到港量下降。全球发运3516.4万吨，周环比+477.4万吨。47港 口到港量2268.9万吨，周环比-472.3万吨。全国9月进口量11632.6万吨，月环比+110.1万吨。 【库存】 截至11月19日，港口库存小幅去库，日均疏港量环比回升，钢厂进口矿库存环比上升。45港库存 15114.45万吨，环比-1 ...