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国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250825
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 05:10
国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025年08月25日 | 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 | | --- | 观点与策略 | 黄金:JH会议鲍威尔放鸽 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银:冲顶前高 | 3 | | 铜:美元回落,价格上涨 | 5 | | 锌:区间震荡 | 7 | | 铅:库存减少,支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡:区间震荡 | 10 | | 铝:累库放缓 | 12 | | 氧化铝:横盘小涨 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金:跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 镍:窄幅区间震荡运行 | 14 | | 不锈钢:短线低位震荡 | 14 | | 碳酸锂:宽幅震荡 | 16 | | 工业硅:市场情绪提振 | 18 | | 多晶硅:区间震荡,以逢低做多为主 | 18 | | 铁矿石:短期估值仍有来自宏微观的支撑 | 20 | | 螺纹钢:宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 热轧卷板:宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 硅铁:宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅:宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦炭:宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 焦煤:宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 原木:震荡反复 | 28 | | 对 ...
中美零售数据及有色市场:7月社零增速放缓,锌镍库存有变化
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 09:12
【财经要闻概览】中国7月社零同比增速放缓至3.7%,汽车类零售总额同比转降。美国7月零售销售环 比增0.5%,实际零售销售连续十个月增长,但8月密歇根大学消费者信心意外回落,长短期通胀预期攀 升。铜方面,美联储会议纪要凸显官员对通胀担忧,内容偏鹰派,关注周五杰克逊霍尔"全球央行年 会"鲍威尔表态。近期LME铜现货贴水走扩,进口铜增加,下游需求处淡季,铜材开工率下滑。宏观情 绪反复,产业供需双弱,铜价下行空间有限。铝方面,同样受美联储鹰派纪要影响,关注鲍威尔年会表 态。近期铝价高位运行,国内消费复苏乏力,供应充足,电解铝现货有累库预期,铝价或偏弱运行。锌 方面,宏观多空交织,9月美联储降息对有色板块有支撑。7月锌锭产量超60万吨,8月产量持续恢复, 预计环比增1万吨。需求有韧性,周一社库累增施压锌价,但Ime锌库存去化,挤仓隐患仍存,追空需 谨慎。镍方面,国内反内卷消息降温,美联储纪要偏鹰。印尼镍矿升水暂稳,纯镍供应增加,国内库存 累增,镍价随宏观震荡。全球镍库存高位,需求偏弱,一级镍过剩。操作建议短线,关注逢高卖套机 会,控制风险。 本文由 AI 算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 ...
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250822
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 02:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts and fundamental data for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity has its own specific trend, such as high - level oscillation, slight decline, waiting for policy guidance, etc. [2][5] 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate at a high level, with a trend strength of 1. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 775.12, up 0.32%. The SPDR Gold ETF's position decreased by 1. [2][7][10] - **Silver**: Forecasted to decline slightly, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 yesterday was 9162, up 1.31%. The SLV Silver ETF's position (the day before yesterday) decreased by 28. [2][7][10] Base Metals - **Copper**: Waiting for the Fed's interest - rate cut guidance, with narrowing price fluctuations and a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract yesterday was 78,630, down 0.30%. PT Smelting's smelting plant extended its maintenance period due to equipment failure. [2][12][14] - **Zinc**: Expected to oscillate weakly, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract yesterday was 22240, down 0.11%. LME zinc inventory decreased by 1875 tons. [2][15][17] - **Lead**: Supported by inventory reduction, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract yesterday was 16745, up 0.12%. Shanghai lead futures inventory decreased by 1481 tons. [2][18][19] - **Tin**: Forecasted to oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract yesterday was 266,480, down 0.51%. [2][21][24] - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 20590. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 57.90 million tons, down 0.70 million tons. [2][25][27] - **Nickel**: Expected to oscillate at a low level, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 119,830. [2][28][34] - **Stainless Steel**: The price is expected to oscillate due to the game between expectations and reality, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,795. [2][29][34] Energy and Chemicals - **LPG**: Supported by macro - sentiment premium, with expected increase in import costs. [5] - **Propylene**: With tightening supply - demand and price support. [5] - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with downward pressure in the long term. [5] - **Fuel Oil**: Mainly in an oscillating trend, with short - term strengthening. [5] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Weak and in consolidation, with a slight rebound in the high - low sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market. [5] - **PTA**: Due to unplanned device shutdown, a long - spread strategy is recommended. The closing price of the PTA main contract was 4860, up 1.72%. [2][61][62] - **MEG**: Expected to show a strong trend. The closing price of the MEG main contract was 4473, down 0.09%. [2][61][62] - **Benzene Ethylene**: Compressing profit margins. [2] - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market. [2] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The US bio - diesel exemption volume may be lower than expected, leading to an increase in international oil prices. [5] - **Soybean Oil**: Oscillating and consolidating at a high level. [5] - **Soybean Meal**: Due to the large increase in US soybeans overnight, Dalian soybean meal may rebound. [5] - **Soybean**: Rebounding and oscillating. [5] - **Corn**: Expected to run weakly. [5] - **Sugar**: Oscillating within a range. [5] - **Cotton**: The futures price fluctuates narrowly, waiting for new drivers. [5] - **Egg**: Attention should be paid to the rhythm of culling laying hens. [5] - **Live Pig**: Waiting for the end - of - month spot verification. [5] - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts. [5] Others - **Iron Ore**: Supported by the fact that the macro - risk preference has not significantly declined. The closing price of the iron - ore futures contract was 772.5, up 0.46%. [2][43][44] - **Rebar**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the RB2510 contract was 3,121, down 0.03%. [2][46][47] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the HC2510 contract was 3,375, down 0.44%. [2][47] - **Silicon Iron**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the silicon - iron 2511 contract was 5638. [2][51] - **Manganese Silicon**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the manganese - silicon 2511 contract was 5820. [2][51] - **Coke**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the J2601 contract was 1664, down 0.8%. [2][54] - **Coking Coal**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the JM2601 contract was 1147, down 1.3%. [2][54] - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 804.5, down 0.1%. [2][57][58] - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is recommended to hold 10 short positions as appropriate. [5] - **Short - Fiber**: Oscillating and strengthening due to upstream supply fluctuations. [5] - **Bottle Chip**: Oscillating and strengthening due to upstream supply fluctuations. [5] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level, with limited upward momentum. [5] - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillating weakly. [5]
降息预期摇摆,镍价震荡
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macro aspect: During the reporting period, macro expectations fluctuated. At the beginning of the week, the market's expectation of three Fed rate cuts within the year significantly increased, with a potential rate cut of up to 175bp by the end of 2026. However, after the PPI data was released at the end of the week, the market reversed its assessment of inflation risks, and Fed officials released hawkish statements, leading to repeated macro expectations [3]. - Fundamental aspect: Overseas nickel ore supply is becoming more abundant, but there are no obvious signs of price decline. Ferronickel prices are rising, and ferronickel plant profits are recovering. However, stainless steel lacks upward momentum, and resource circulation is poor, resulting in weak ferronickel consumption. The nickel sulfate market remains hot, but terminal consumption is weak, and the sustainability of the market's heat is questionable. The spot market for pure nickel is sluggish, with strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment, and stable fluctuations in premiums and discounts [3]. - Future outlook: High inflation and weak employment may lead to repeated swings in rate - cut expectations, causing nickel prices to fluctuate. High tariffs are increasing upstream inflation pressure, and rising PPI may be transmitted to CPI. At the same time, weak non - farm data and rising unemployment may slow down total demand. The market's expectations for Fed monetary policy may swing between inflation control and employment stability. In the industry, stainless steel prices are falling after a rise, and new energy vehicle consumption growth has turned negative. Supply is expected to be stable, and there is an expectation of a weakening in the ore end, but it has not materialized. Overall, nickel prices will fluctuate under macro - level drivers [3][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Macro: As of August 9, the initial jobless claims were 224,000, lower than the expected 228,000. The US PPI annual rate in July was 3.3%, higher than the expected 2.5%. The monthly PPI in July increased by 0.9%, much higher than the expected 0.2%. At the beginning of the week, the US Treasury Secretary's remarks boosted rate - cut expectations, while at the end of the week, hawkish statements were released due to inflation concerns [5]. - Nickel ore: The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines dropped from $51/wet ton to $50/wet ton, while the domestic FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in Indonesia rose from $37.55/wet ton to $37.75/wet ton. Although the supply of nickel ore is expected to be more abundant, the price of Indonesian nickel ore remains firm [5]. - Pure nickel: In July, domestic monthly production capacity decreased slightly by 400 tons to 53,699 tons, while smelter production plans increased slightly month - on - month. In July, electrolytic nickel production was 32,800 tons, an increase of about 1,000 tons from the previous month, and the operating rate was 61.08%, up about 1.86 percentage points. In June, domestic electrolytic nickel exports decreased by 5.66% year - on - year and 3,830 tons month - on - month, while imports increased by 119.71% year - on - year. As of August 14, the export profit of nickel in China was - $6.68/ton. Overall, import resources are stable, but export profits are shrinking, and smelting supply remains high [6]. - Ferronickel: The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) rose from 912 yuan/nickel point to 918.5 yuan/nickel point. In July, China's ferronickel production was about 24,540 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%. In June, domestic ferronickel imports were about 1.0414 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.05%. Imports from Indonesia were about 1.0177 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase. In July, Indonesia's ferronickel production was about 134,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.14% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.73%. As of July 31, the physical ton inventory of ferronickel was 284,900 tons, an increase of about 31,000 tons from the previous period [7]. - Stainless steel: In July, the production plan for 300 - series stainless steel in China was about 1.74 million tons, an increase of about 15 tons compared to the same period last year and unchanged month - on - month. Although stainless steel prices have rebounded, downstream demand is weak, and holders are actively reducing prices to sell. The recovery space for ferronickel is limited due to weak consumption [8]. - Nickel sulfate: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose from 27,440 yuan/ton to 27,530 yuan/ton, while the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained at 28,000 yuan/ton. In July, the metal output of nickel sulfate was about 29,084 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.77% and a month - on - month increase of 17.3%. The output of ternary materials in July increased to about 68,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.7% and a month - on - month increase of 5.8%. As of August 8, the downstream inventory days of nickel sulfate increased to 11 days, while the upstream inventory days remained at about 6 days. The spot market for nickel sulfate is hot, but price increases are mainly cost - driven, and production profitability remains negative overall [8]. - New energy: From August 1 - 10, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 452,000 vehicles, a 4% year - on - year decrease and a 6% month - on - month increase. The retail sales of the national new energy passenger car market were 262,000 vehicles, a 6% year - on - year and month - on - month increase, with a retail penetration rate of 57.9%. The new energy market is also showing signs of weakness, and the consumption in August is facing high - base pressure. Although subsidy policies may boost consumption, the core driving force for consumption lies in employment and income [9]. - Inventory: The current total social inventory of pure nickel in six locations is 41,891 tons, a decrease of 1,319 tons from the previous period. The SHFE inventory is 22,141 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,418 tons. The LME nickel inventory is 211,662 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 570 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges is 233,803 tons, a month - on - month increase of 848 tons [10]. 3.2 Industry News - Winshear Gold Corp. has signed an option agreement for the Portsoy nickel - copper - cobalt project in Scotland. If the agreement is approved, Winshear will obtain 100% equity in the project, covering 250 square kilometers. Winshear promises to invest £3 million in 5 years and issue 6.5 million shares to Peak Nickel. Peak Nickel will retain a 1% NSR with a maximum limit of £10 million and may receive a 10% share of the proceeds if the project is acquired by a third party [12]. - Lifezone Metals has obtained a $60 million bridge loan for its Kabanga nickel project in Tanzania. The Kabanga project is one of the largest and highest - grade undeveloped nickel sulfide projects in the world, containing over 2 million tons of battery - grade metal resources and significant amounts of copper and cobalt [12]. - The nickel industry in Indonesia is facing multiple challenges, including regulatory pressure, ESG compliance requirements, and the need to increase downstream added value. Rising costs such as royalties, reclamation deposits, and the upcoming global minimum tax may force some smelters to shut down. The APNI has developed national ESG parameters by integrating 57 regulations from six ministries with international standards [12]. 3.3 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the trends of domestic and international nickel prices, spot premiums and discounts, LME0 - 3 nickel premiums and discounts, nickel domestic - to - foreign ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron prices, 300 - series stainless steel prices, and stainless steel inventory [14][16].
建信期货镍日报-20250813
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 02:19
Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Type: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: August 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - Ferrous Metals Research Team [3] 2. Core View - The nickel price is expected to rebound under macro - support, but the oversupply fundamentals remain unchanged, and the price may still face pressure after the sentiment fades [8] 3. Content Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Nickel Price Movement**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated strongly, with the main contract rising 0.67% to 122,440. The average premium of Jinchuan No.1 nickel decreased by 50 to 2,150 yuan/ton, and the spot premium range of domestic mainstream brand electrowinning nickel was - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [8] - **Supply and Price of Nickel Ore**: The impact of precipitation in the main producing areas of the Philippines in the third quarter is limited, and shipments will remain at a high level. The approved quota of RKAB in Indonesia is as high as 310 million wet tons, with a strong expectation of increased nickel ore supply and downward price pressure [8] - **NPI Price**: Due to the short - term high price of nickel ore, most Indonesian iron plants are still in a state of cost inversion. The NPI price continued to rise, with an average of 921.5 yuan/nickel point on the 12th [8] - **Nickel Salt Price**: Supported by cost and rigid restocking of precursors, the nickel salt price continued to rise. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate on the 12th increased by 60 to 27,510 yuan/ton [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Indonesian Investment in Nickel Downstream**: Indonesia's Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry and considering acquiring the PT Gunbuster Nickel Industry (GNI) smelter. It plans to prepare an investment plan of over $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through syndicated loans [9][10] - **Battery Energy Storage Projects** - Bulgaria launched a 124 - megawatt/496.2 - megawatt - hour battery energy storage system [10] - Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - megawatt battery energy storage system project in Scotland, with the total approved storage capacity exceeding 1.6 gigawatts [10] - **Solar Cell Innovation**: A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel contact with almost no silver, which can significantly reduce production costs [10]
五矿期货早报有色金属-20250811
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 01:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, with the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and anti - involution policy expectations providing support, while the expected increase in supply after the implementation of US copper tariffs poses an upper - bound pressure [1]. - Aluminum prices may fluctuate, supported by the relatively low domestic aluminum ingot inventory and the resilience of external demand, but pressured by weak downstream consumption and volatile trade situations [3]. - Lead prices are expected to show a weak and volatile trend due to the narrowing supply and high downstream inventory levels [4]. - Zinc prices are difficult to fall in the short - term despite the long - term oversupply situation, supported by the low LME warehouse receipts [6]. - Tin prices are expected to decline as the supply is expected to recover significantly in the fourth quarter while the demand remains weak [7]. - Nickel prices may have a callback pressure as the short - term improvement in downstream demand is limited, despite a small rebound [9]. - Carbonate lithium prices are affected by the news of mine shutdowns, with frequent emotional fluctuations in the market. Traders are advised to be cautious [11]. - Alumina is expected to maintain an oversupply pattern, and it is recommended to short at high prices [14]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to show a strong and volatile trend due to the tight market supply [16]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices have limited upward space due to the off - season of downstream demand and the large basis between futures and spot prices, despite cost support [18]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - Last week, LME copper rose 1.4% to $9768/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78940 yuan/ton. The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 28,000 tons, and the Shanghai bonded - area inventory increased by 500 tons. The spot import was in a loss, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. The domestic refined - copper rod and cable operating rates rebounded slightly. In the short - term, copper prices may fluctuate strongly, with the operating range of SHFE copper at 78000 - 80000 yuan/ton and LME copper at $9600 - 10000/ton [1]. Aluminum - Last week, SHFE aluminum rose 0.85%, and LME aluminum rose 1.69% to $2615/ton. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 20,000 tons, and the bonded - area inventory increased by 4000 tons. The aluminum rod social inventory decreased by 4000 tons. The downstream buying interest improved. In the short - term, aluminum prices may fluctuate, with the operating range of SHFE aluminum at 20400 - 20900 yuan/ton and LME aluminum at $2550 - 2660/ton [3]. Lead - On Friday, SHFE lead index fell 0.22% to 16846 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell $6.5 to $1998.5/ton. The supply has slightly narrowed, and the downstream consumption pressure is high. Lead prices are expected to show a weak and volatile trend [4]. Zinc - On Friday, SHFE zinc index fell 0.31% to 22515 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose $3.5 to $2816.5/ton. The domestic zinc ingot is in an oversupply situation, but the low LME warehouse receipts support the price in the short - term [6]. Tin - Last week, tin prices fluctuated upward. Supply is expected to recover significantly in the fourth quarter, while demand is in the off - season. Tin prices are expected to decline [7]. Nickel - On Friday, nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. The short - term macro - environment is positive, but the downstream demand improvement is limited, and nickel prices have a callback pressure. The operating range of SHFE nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel is $14500 - 16500/ton [9]. Carbonate Lithium - On Friday, the MMLC carbonate lithium spot index rose 2.95% from the previous trading day and 1.45% for the week. The news of mine shutdowns affects the market sentiment, and traders are advised to be cautious [11]. Alumina - On August 8, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.36% to 3182 yuan/ton. The supply - side contraction policy needs further observation, and it is recommended to short at high prices. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12985 yuan/ton. The market supply is tight, and the price is expected to show a strong and volatile trend [16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Last week, the cast aluminum alloy futures price rose 0.95% to 20110 yuan/ton. The downstream is in the off - season, and the price upward space is limited [18].
永安期货有色早报-20250808
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 01:24
Group 1: Report's Overall Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, the US tariff details on copper mainly affect the market in several ways, including the reversal of the CL arbitrage spread logic, potential outflow of US export supply, and a more relaxed import situation in China. The report is not pessimistic about copper prices in Q3 and Q4, seeing dips as opportunities [1]. - For aluminum, supply has increased slightly, and August is expected to be a seasonal off - peak for demand. Inventory is expected to continue to accumulate slightly in August. Attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory trading strategies [1]. - For zinc, prices have fluctuated downward. Supply is increasing, while domestic demand is seasonally weak and overseas demand is average. Short - term strategies include waiting and watching, holding long positions in the domestic - foreign positive spread, and looking for opportunities in the positive spread between months [2]. - For nickel, supply remains high, demand is weak, and inventory is stable. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [3]. - For stainless steel, supply has decreased due to some steel mill cut - backs, demand is mainly for rigid needs with some restocking, and the overall fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to future policy trends [3]. - For lead, prices have declined this week. Supply is tight, demand is weak, and there is expected to be inventory accumulation in July. However, lead prices are expected to rise next week as battery factories replenish stocks [5]. - For tin, prices have fluctuated widely. Supply may decline slightly in July - August, and demand is expected to slow down. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and short - term short - selling at high prices is recommended [7]. - For industrial silicon, the recent supply reduction by leading enterprises has improved the supply - demand balance. The复产 rhythm of Southwest China and Hesheng is crucial. In the long - term, the market will mainly oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [10]. - For lithium carbonate, the market is affected by resource - end compliance issues. In the short - term, there is upward potential if risks are realized, while in the long - term, prices will oscillate at a low level if risks are resolved [12]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Market trading this week focused on the results of the 232 investigation. The US decision not to impose tariffs on refined copper but only on copper products exported to the US has had a significant impact on the market. The CL spread may shift towards export profit, US supply may flow out, and China's import situation may become more relaxed. The market demand support remains, and dips in copper prices are seen as opportunities [1]. Aluminum - Supply has increased slightly, with imports providing an increment from January to May. August is a seasonal off - peak for demand, with weak aluminum product exports and a decline in the photovoltaic sector. Inventory is expected to accumulate slightly in August. Attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory trading strategies [1]. Zinc - Prices have fluctuated downward this week. The domestic processing fee (TC) has increased in August, and smelting output has increased. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand is average. Domestic social inventory is rising, and overseas LME inventory has been decreasing since May. Short - term strategies include waiting and watching, holding long positions in the domestic - foreign positive spread, and looking for opportunities in the positive spread between months [2]. Nickel - Supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, demand is weak overall, and inventory at home and abroad is stable. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [3]. Stainless Steel - Supply has decreased due to some steel mill cut - backs since late May. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, with some restocking due to the macro - environment. Costs are stable, and inventory in Xifu has decreased slightly. The overall fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to future policy trends [3]. Lead - Prices have declined this week. Supply is tight due to low scrap battery supply and high - cost recycling. Demand is weak, with high battery inventory and low consumer purchasing power. There is expected to be inventory accumulation in July, but prices are expected to rise next week as battery factories replenish stocks [5]. Tin - Prices have fluctuated widely this week. Supply may decline slightly in July - August due to low processing fees and upcoming maintenance in domestic smelters. Overseas, there are signs of production resumption in Wa State, and the import volume from the DRC has exceeded expectations. Demand is expected to slow down, and there is a risk of a short squeeze in the LME market. Short - term short - selling at high prices is recommended [7]. Industrial Silicon - The recent supply reduction by leading enterprises has improved the supply - demand balance. The market inventory has decreased significantly, and the high basis has led to the cancellation of warehouse receipts. The复产 rhythm of Southwest China and Hesheng is crucial. In the long - term, the market will mainly oscillate at the bottom of the cycle due to over - capacity [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The market has been affected by the implementation of the Mineral Resources Law and resource - end compliance issues. In the short - term, there is upward potential if risks are realized. In the long - term, prices will oscillate at a low level if risks are resolved, and a significant weakening of demand is needed to open up further downward space [12].
建信期货镍日报-20250806
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 02:26
Report Information - Report Name: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: August 6, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The macro - warm atmosphere supports the nickel price to be strong, and the prices in the industrial chain have rebounded. However, the oversupply pressure remains, and the price will still be under pressure after the macro - sentiment fades. It may continue to test the cost support [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 5th, Shanghai nickel fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2509 closed up 0.83% at 120,910. The total open interest of the index decreased by 5,588 to 191,375 lots. The average premium of Jinchuan No.1 nickel decreased by 100 to 2,250 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The quoted range of spot premium and discount of domestic mainstream brands of electrowinning nickel was - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [7]. - The supply of nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia is expected to be loose in the future, and the price has further downward pressure, with the support from the ore end weakening. The price of NPI continued to rise, with an average of 916 yuan/nickel point on the 5th. But the nickel ore price is still high in the short - term, and most Indonesian iron plants are still in a state of cost inversion. Due to the low spot market of stainless steel despite the price recovery, the traditional off - season consumption and high inventory limit the acceptance of high raw material prices, so the upward trend of NPI may not last long [7]. - The price of nickel salt has recovered from the low level due to the rigid replenishment of precursors and the low inventory of nickel salt plants, but the recovery space may be limited. The macro - environment has not yet substantially boosted the demand. The nickel industry does not directly benefit from the anti - involution logic. Attention should be paid to whether there are production - cut policies in the stainless steel industry. The nickel market is difficult to have substantial improvement in the short term [7]. 2. Industry News - Indonesia's National Investment Management Agency Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the downstream nickel industry. It is considering acquiring the PT Gunbuster Nickel Industry (GNI) smelter in Central Sulawesi. The acquisition plan is still in the evaluation stage, and the state - owned mining holding company Mind ID is likely to be the main partner. Danantara expects to prepare an investment plan of over $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through a syndicated loan to help GNI relieve liquidity pressure [8][10]. - Bulgaria officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh. This is the first step towards the goal of deploying 10,000 MWh of battery energy storage capacity within a year [10]. - A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel (Ni) contact with almost no silver (Ag). It significantly reduces the silver usage from 13 - 20 mg/W to below 0.5 mg/W while maintaining almost the same efficiency, which is expected to reduce production costs and improve sustainability and scalability [10]. - Renewable energy storage company Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system (BESS) project in North Ayrshire, Scotland. This is the tenth approved project in the past 17 months, with the total approved storage capacity exceeding 1.6 GW [10].
新疆新鑫矿业(03833)发盈警,预期中期归属于股东的合并净利润同比大幅下降约50.8%
智通财经网· 2025-08-03 11:29
Core Viewpoint - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) expects a consolidated revenue of approximately RMB 1.118 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 4.9% compared to RMB 1.065 billion last year. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be around RMB 71.8 million, a significant decline of approximately 50.8% from RMB 146 million in the same period last year [1]. Financial Performance - The expected consolidated revenue for the upcoming period is approximately RMB 1.118 billion, up from RMB 1.065 billion year-on-year, indicating a growth rate of about 4.9% [1]. - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is around RMB 71.8 million, down from RMB 146 million in the previous year, reflecting a substantial decrease of approximately 50.8% [1]. Price and Cost Factors - The average selling price of electrolytic nickel (excluding tax) during the period is expected to be approximately RMB 110,688 per ton, a decrease of about 10.9% compared to RMB 124,230 per ton in the same period last year [1]. - The increase in production costs is attributed to the use of externally sourced nickel concentrate during production, which has led to higher electrolytic nickel production costs [1].
镍、不锈钢周报:镍价低位震荡-20250801
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent market sentiment may partially ebb. Amid the game between weak reality and strong expectations, the fundamentals and macro - logic of nickel may fluctuate. This week, the ore price declined slightly month - on - month, and the cost support for nickel is weak. Attention should still be paid to the policy guidance from Indonesia, such as the APNI Association's hope to re - evaluate the nickel ore pricing formula [3][4]. - The stainless steel market has improved somewhat, but it is still in the off - season, with limited overall demand release and insufficient price increase momentum. Currently, the supply remains high, and the short - term supply - demand pattern improvement is limited. Stainless steel may maintain a range - bound trend [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Cost**: - As of July 28, the CIF prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% Philippine laterite nickel ore were $29, $58, and $79.5 per wet ton respectively, down $1, $0.5, and $1 from last week [3][32]. - As of July 25, the ex - factory prices of Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% domestic trade nickel ore in Indonesia were $25 and $52.1 per wet ton respectively, down $0 and $0.1 from last week [3][32]. - As of July 28, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was $912 per nickel point, up $10.5 or 1.16% from last week [3][28]. - As of July 28, the FOB price of MHP was $12,716 per ton, up $407 or 3.30% from last week; the FOB price of high - grade nickel matte was $13,281 per ton, up $392 or 3.03% from last week [38]. - As of July 28, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was $123,200 per ton, up $350 or 0.28% from last week [16]. - As of July 28, the price of Jinchuan nickel was $124,250 per ton, up $400 or 0.32% from last week; the premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by $150 to $2,150 per ton [17]. - As of July 28, the price of imported nickel was $122,500 per ton, up $300 or 0.25% from last week; the premium of imported nickel increased by $50 to $400 per ton [17]. - **Supply**: - As of July 2025, China's monthly electrolytic nickel production increased by 0.04 million tons to 3.22 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26% [3][43]. - As of June 2025, the national nickel pig iron production (metal content) decreased by 0.16 thousand tons to 25.64 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59% [3][73]. - As of June 2025, Indonesia's nickel pig iron production decreased by 0.46 million tons to 13.68 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.26% [73]. - As of July 2025, Indonesia's MHP production increased by 0.07 million tons to 3.87 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.84%; high - grade nickel matte production increased by 0.08 million tons to 1.35 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.30% [38]. - As of June 2025, the monthly MHP import volume was 12.82 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.21%; the monthly high - grade nickel matte import volume was 2.25 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% [38]. - **Inventory**: - As of July 25, the nickel ore port inventory increased by 32 million tons to 747 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.48% [34]. - As of July 28, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 158 tons to 2.19 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.71%; the LME nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 0.38 million tons to 20.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.85% [47]. - Last week, the pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) decreased by 57 tons to 4.03 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14% [3][47]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Cost**: - As of July 28, the 304/2B coil - rough edge Wuxi quotation was $12,900 per ton, unchanged from last week [84]. - As of July 25, the cash cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless steel coils decreased by $97 per ton to $13,076 per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.71%; the profit margin increased by 1.41 percentage points to - 4.42% [94]. - **Supply and Demand**: - As of June 2025, the national stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 17.13 million tons to 329.16 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.95% [3][90]. - As of June 2025, China's monthly stainless steel import volume was 10.95 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.61%; the monthly export volume was 39.0 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.63% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.51% [90]. - **Inventory**: - As of July 25, the stainless steel market inventory decreased by 2.92 million tons to 111.86 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.54% [3][86]. - As of July 28, the stainless steel warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 303 tons to 10.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29% [86]. Tin - The tin monthly balance sheet shows data from January to December 2025, including total production, imports, exports, total consumption, surplus, supply year - on - year, consumption year - on - year, supply cumulative year - on - year, and consumption cumulative year - on - year [4].