期货研究报告|宏观数据 2025-07-10 6 月 CPI 回暖，PPI 持续承压 ——宏观通胀系列十 研究院 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 宏观事件 7 月 9 日，国家统计局公布数据显示： 2025 年 6 月份，全国居民消费价格同比上涨 0.1%。其中，城市上涨 0.1%，农村下降 0.2%；食品价格下降0.3%，非食品价格上涨 0.1%；消费品价格下降 0.2%，服务价格上 涨 0.5%。上半年，全国居民消费价格比上年同期下降 0.1%。 2025 年 6 月份，全国工业生产者出厂价格同比下降 3.6%，环比下降 0.4%；工业生产者 购进价格同比下降 4.3%，环比下降 0.7%。上半年，工业生产者出厂价格比上年同期下 降 2.8%，工业生产者购进价格下降 2.9%。 核心观点 ■ 6 月 CPI 同比由降转升，PPI 同比降幅扩大 风险 经济数据短期波动风险，上游价格快速上涨风险 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 $$\mathbf{E}{\overline{{\mat ...

Economic Overview - In the first half of 2025, Henan's economy is showing a positive trend, with a projected GDP growth of around 5.5%, which is above the national average [1][12] - The province's economic indicators are expected to demonstrate a continuous improvement, with a focus on high-quality development and stability [1][12] Economic Performance Characteristics - The GDP for the first quarter reached 14,945.58 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, which is 1.2 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024 [2] - Industrial output has shown significant growth, with a 8.4% increase in industrial value added from January to May, outperforming both Sichuan and the national average [2] - The service sector also performed well, with a 5.8% increase in the value added of the tertiary industry in the first quarter [2] Domestic Demand and Investment - Consumer demand has been robust, with retail sales reaching 11,820.14 billion yuan from January to May, a 7.5% increase year-on-year [3] - Fixed asset investment grew by 6.6% in the same period, maintaining the top position in central China [3] - Industrial investment surged by 29.5%, significantly higher than the national average [3] Innovation and New Industries - High-tech manufacturing value added increased by 15.5% from January to May, indicating strong growth in new industries [4] - The production of lithium-ion batteries and new energy vehicles saw remarkable growth, with increases of 89.9% and 38.6% respectively [4] - The technology transaction volume reached 105.3 billion yuan, a 136% increase, reflecting a vibrant innovation ecosystem [4] Foreign Trade and Investment - Henan's total import and export value grew by 27.0% from January to May, ranking third nationally [5] - The number of foreign trade enterprises increased by 11.5%, and foreign direct investment saw a 27.5% rise [5] - The logistics sector also experienced growth, with cargo and passenger transport volumes increasing significantly [5] Employment and Income - Employment policies have been prioritized, with over 56,520 new urban jobs created in the first five months [6] - The per capita disposable income for residents grew by 5.7% in the first quarter, above the national average [6] Strategic Focus and Future Outlook - The government is committed to maintaining economic stability and growth, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and enhancing market confidence [7][8] - Policies aimed at promoting consumption and investment are expected to yield positive results in the latter half of the year [13][14] - The overall economic trajectory for Henan is anticipated to remain positive, with key indicators expected to exceed national averages [12][23]

Economic Overview - China's economy has consistently crossed significant milestones, reaching an estimated GDP of around 140 trillion yuan in 2023, with an increment of over 35 trillion yuan, equivalent to the combined GDP of Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong provinces [2] - The average economic growth rate over the past four years has been 5.5%, with China contributing approximately 30% to global economic growth [2] Domestic Demand - Domestic demand has played a crucial role, contributing an average of 86.4% to economic growth over the past four years [3] - Final consumption's contribution to economic growth averaged 56.2%, an increase of 8.6 percentage points compared to the previous five-year period [3] Investment Contributions - Capital formation from investments contributed an average of 30.2% to economic growth over the past four years [4] - Significant investments in high-tech industries and infrastructure have been made, with approximately 780,000 affordable housing units constructed, addressing housing issues for over 20 million people [4] Innovation and High-Tech Development - China is transitioning from a global manufacturing hub to a global innovation center, with high-tech manufacturing value added increasing by 42% and digital economy core industries growing by 73.8% [5] - R&D expenditure reached 3.6 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.68% of GDP, with enterprises contributing over 77% of this investment [5] Service Sector and Productivity - The development of the productive service sector is closely linked to improvements in production efficiency and value [6] - There is a focus on enhancing the share of productive services in GDP from 27%-30% to 35% during the next five-year period, which is expected to lead to a more rational industrial structure [6]

我国高技术制造业增加值占规上工业的比重从2020年的15.1%提高到今年一季度的15.7%。创新这一"关 键变量"，加速转化为新质生产力的"最大增量"。 飞天！"嫦娥六号"实现人类首次月球背面采样返回，国产大飞机C919累计交付21架，长征十二号运载 火箭发射成功； 入海！大洋钻探船"梦想"号正式入列，超大型液化天然气运输船出口订单不断； ………… 今年5月，习近平总书记在河南洛阳轴承集团股份有限公司考察时指出："我们坚持走自主发展实业的道 路，靠自己的力量发展工业、制造业，这条路是走对了！" 近年来，以先进制造业为骨干的现代化产业体系加快构建，新型工业化迈出新的坚实步伐，制造强国建 设取得新进展。我国全年全部工业增加值由2020年的31.3万亿元增长至2024年的40.5万亿元，制造业总 体规模连续15年保持世界第一。中国制造彰显出的坚实底气、创新动能、澎湃活力，为推进中国式现代 化提供有力支撑。 攻坚，关键核心技术不断突破，产业链供应链韧性和安全水平不断提升—— 北斗三号汇集全国400多家单位联合攻关，通过星间链路技术实现"太空搭桥"，建成由数十颗卫星编织 成的"天罗地网"。 从无到有，服务全球。如今北斗 ...

央视网消息：从最新发布的数据中，感知中国经济活力。 2025年前5个月：我国服务贸易同比增长7.7% 1—5月，旅行服务继续快速增长，进出口达9200.5亿元，增长12.2%，为服务贸易第一大领域。 科技创新与制造业高质量发展加快推进 其中，其他商业服务、电信计算机和信息服务进出口规模较大，有效助推经济增长和产业结构升级。 国家税务总局公布的最新数据显示，2025年1—5月，支持科技创新和制造业发展的主要政策减税降费及退税达6361亿元。 6月份中国大宗商品价格指数继续回升 商务部最新数据显示，前5个月，我国服务进出口总额32543.6亿元人民币，同比增长7.7%。其中，出口14033.7亿元，增长15.1%；进口18509.9 亿元，增长2.7%。 服务贸易稳步增长的同时，结构进一步优化。1—5月，知识密集型服务进出口12492.7亿元，增长5.0%。 增值税发票数据显示，1—5月，高技术产业销售收入同比增长14.2%，明显快于全国总体增速。 1—5月，我国制造业企业销售收入同比增长4.2%。其中，数字产品制造业、高技术制造业销售收入均保持两位数增长。 中国物流与采购联合会7月5日公布，6月份，中国大宗商品 ...

Core Insights - In June, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7%, indicating a recovery in manufacturing demand and overall economic resilience, supported by effective economic policies [1][2] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stood at 50.5%, while the comprehensive PMI output index reached 50.7%, both showing improvements compared to the previous month [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI indicates that 11 out of 21 surveyed industries are in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month, suggesting an overall improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2] - The production index and new orders index were at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing month-on-month increases, reflecting accelerated production activities and improved market demand [2] - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises saw a PMI of 48.6%, up 1.1 percentage points, indicating a positive trend in business sentiment [2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The construction business activity index rose to 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, driven by a significant recovery in civil engineering projects, which indicates a faster pace of infrastructure construction [4] - The service sector business activity index slightly decreased to 50.1%, attributed to the fading effects of holiday consumption, particularly in retail, transportation, and hospitality [4] Future Outlook - The service and construction sectors maintain optimistic business activity expectations, with indices at 56.0% and 53.9%, respectively, indicating a positive outlook for industry development [4] - Analysts expect that with continued policy support and potential new measures, the manufacturing PMI is likely to improve further in the second half of the year [5]

当前，我国经济正处于爬坡过坎的关键阶段，新旧动能转换步伐加快。在外部环境复杂多变的情况下， 充满活力的新动能产业，凭借技术创新和市场需求的优势，能够更好地增强中国经济抵御风险挑战的韧 性。也要清醒地认识到，部分行业仍面临关键核心技术"卡脖子"、产业链供应链存在断点堵点等问题。 这要求我们保持战略定力，持续加大创新投入，完善产业生态，推动创新链产业链资金链人才链深度融 合。 还要看到，制造业景气度继续回升，有新动能产业的贡献，同时也是各行业普遍恢复协同作用的结果。 6月份，消费品制造业PMI为50.4%，较上月上升0.2个百分点；基础原材料行业PMI为47.8%，较上月上 升0.8个百分点，结束了连续3个月的下行态势。这也提示我们，要正确认识和处理好新旧动能的关系。 许多新兴产业的发展，往往依托于传统产业积累的技术、人才和市场基础。例如，新能源汽车的崛起离 不开传统汽车工业的供应链支撑，工业互联网的发展依托于制造业的数字化改造。如果割裂新旧动能之 间的联系，盲目"弃旧图新"，反而会削弱产业升级的整体效能。不能把产业升级简化为赛道切换，要充 分考虑区域禀赋差异和产业基础，因地制宜发展新质生产力，在推动新旧动能平稳 ...

国家统计局4月27日发布的数据显示，一季度，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额15093.6亿元，由上 年全年同比下降3.3%转为增长0.8%，扭转了自上年三季度以来企业累计利润持续下降的态势。专家分 析，"两新"政策效应持续释放，装备制造业、高技术制造业利润增长较快，企业营收增速持续加快等多 因素带动了工业企业利润由降转增。 装备制造业是利润增长重要支撑。一季度，装备制造业利润同比增长6.4%，较1至2月加快1个百分点， 拉动全部规模以上工业企业利润增长2个百分点。同期，装备制造业利润占全部规模以上工业企业利润 的比重为32%，同比提高1.4个百分点。 一季度，高技术制造业利润由1至2月同比下降5.8%转为增长3.5%，增速高于全部规模以上工业企业水 平2.7个百分点。其中，航空航天、电子器件、医疗仪器等行业利润增长较快。数据显示，一季度，航 空航天器及设备制造利润同比增长23.9%，智能消费设备制造、电子工业专用设备制造、电子器件制造 等行业利润分别同比增长63.7%、59.9%和55.3%。 一季度，"两新"政策对相关行业利润带动效果继续显现。在大规模设备更新相关政策带动下，专用设 备、通用设备行业利润同 ...

从生产供给看，4月份全国规模以上工业增加值同比增速是去年以来月度增速中比较快的速度，服务业 生产指数同比增长6%，则是今年以来月度增速中次高的水平。 从国内需求看，消费品以旧换新相关商品销售大幅增长，对社会消费品零售总额的增长和支撑作用比较 明显。其中，限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材类商品零售额同比增长38.8%，今年以来持续提速增 长。投资方面，"两重""两新"政策效应持续显现，投资规模持续扩大。在大规模设备更新接续推动带动 下，1～4月份设备工器具购置投资同比增长18.2%，对全部投资增长的贡献率达64.5%。 此前公布的外贸进出口数据则表明，尽管国际环境急剧变化，外部冲击影响加大，我国仍在加大外贸多 元化发展，积极开拓与共建"一带一路"国家贸易，推动外贸保持平稳增长。1～4月份，我国货物进出口 总额同比增长2.4%，比一季度加快1.1个百分点。 证券时报记者 江聃 5月19日，国家统计局公布的最新数据显示，4月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.1%，环比增 长0.22%，全国服务业生产指数同比增长6.0%，社会消费品零售总额同比增长5.1%，固定资产投资环比 增长0.10%，主要经济指标实现平稳较快 ...

在41个工业大类行业中，有23个行业利润同比增长，占比近六成。与一季度相比，保持基本稳定。其 中，装备制造业和高技术制造业利润增长进一步提速，1—4月份，装备制造业和高技术制造业利润同比 分别增长11.2%和9.0%，较1—3月份加快4.8个百分点和5.5个百分点。 川财证券首席经济学家陈雳对证券时报记者表示，政策显效叠加产业升级带动1—4月工业企业利润同比 增速进一步回升。国产替代与产业升级趋势持续，高技术、高附加值的产业和产品成为经济增长新引 擎，特别是机器人、人工智能、半导体与芯片等重点战略领域实现较快发展，科研创新与成果市场化提 速带动企业盈利能力不断提升。 数据显示，多个与"人工智能+"行动、智能化产品助力数智化转型相关行业利润实现了同比翻倍及以上 的增长，如半导体器件专用设备制造业利润同比增长105.1%，智能车载设备制造、智能无人飞行器制 造行业利润分别增长177.4%、167.9%。 证券时报记者江聃 国家统计局5月27日发布的数据显示，1—4月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额21170.2亿元，同 比增长1.4%，其中4月份规模以上工业企业利润同比增长3.0%。 国家统计局工业司统计师于 ...